Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/25/23

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!

Jay Jaffe: Sorry for the brief delay. I was immersed in details about Bryan Reynolds’ extension, which I’ll be covering for FanGraphs tomorrow. Today I have a piece on Logan O’Hoppe’s season-threatening labrum injury https://blogs.fangraphs.com/logan-ohoppes-promising-rookie-season-may-…

Jay Jaffe: And yesterday I tapped into some Max Power https://blogs.fangraphs.com/muncy-is-back-to-showing-maximum-power/

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, on with the show

International Baseball: The Montreal Expos have one of the most iconic logos of all time  and there seems to be a renewed interest in baseball. Can Montreal or Mexico City be taken seriously as expansion teams? How does the calculus of not being an American team factor in?

Jay Jaffe: I think not being an American team complicates things exponentially. I know there’s a lot of sentiment when it comes to returning baseball to Montreal but it’s not at all clear that anyone can get a ballpark built there, and without that, you’ve got bupkis.

Mac: Is the yankees’ lineup as bad as it looks

Jay Jaffe: It shouldn’t be this bad. They’re missing Giancarlo Stanton, Harrison Bader, and Josh Donaldson, and Aaron Judge has been slumping since Stanton went down, to the point that they’ve gotten just a 96 wRC+ from all three outfield spots, down from 115 a year ago. Yes, they should have done more to upgrade left field, and yes, they probably shouldn’t be rostering both IKF and Hicks (not to mentoin both Franchy and Willie Calhoun)

Jay Jaffe: so it could be rocky in the near term

Daniel: How likely is it that Spencer Strider can maintain a K% over 40% for the year? It’s never been done outside of 2020.

Jay Jaffe: I think you just answered the question for us. I don’t expect Strider to maintain a 42.6% K rate. Worth noting that four of his five outings (all except the Nationals) have been against teams in the upper half of the 30 teams in terms of strikeout rates.

Ben: What do you think of Scherzer’s suspension for “cheating”? Do you think it will cost him any Hall of Fame votes?

Jay Jaffe: I think it should have been reduced or waived if he really was following the directions of the umpires. I don’t think this makes a gnat’s fart of a difference when it comes to Hall of Fame support — other than a few assholes who decided to sleep off their hangovers on the fainting couch before finally deigning to vote for 300-win/3000-strikeout Gaylord Perry I can’t think of a pitcher whose ball-doctoring allegations cost him notable HOF support

Guest: What do you think of Bob Johnson’s case for the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe: Great hitter who spent his ages 23-26 and 40-42 seasons in the PCL when he was probably major league caliber. He’s 20th among LF in JAWS and wouldn’t be a horrible choice but his era is overrepresented in the Hall and he’s competing with everybody up to 1980, Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black baseball candidates for one of those eight precious ballot spots. I don’t see it happening for him under the current framework and can’t get too worked up about it.

Daniel: How long can the Braves keep trotting out Ozuna? It certainly seems like he’s not going to be a productive player again.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know what they’re waiting for. -1.5 WAR in parts of three seasons under this deal and a DV suspension as well. He’s as sunk as sunk costs get.

A: Brandon Marsh breakout for real?

Jay Jaffe: He’s massively ahead of his .239 xBA and .475 xSLG but those numbers are well ahead of his 2021-22 x-stats. Good reduction in chase and swinging strike rates, strikeout rate down a bit but still high. Not ready to call him a star but quite possibly on his way to above-average regular territory

Ray: Hey Jay, been reading your work for a long time.  Respect.  Is pitching to contact, great D, and contact hitting a sustainable solution to put the Cubs in contention for a wild card?  Any help on the farm that can be a gamechanger?  Your thoughts are appreciated.

Jay Jaffe: if you’re going the contact route on both sides of the ball you need just about everything to go right. These Cubs do rank third in the NL in slugging but they have an xSLG of .368 so I’m not tremendously optimistic they can maintain this, and I don’t think much of their rotation. Prospect-wise they’ve brought up their most MLB-ready Top 100 guy in Hayden Wesneski, and Javier Assad is up as well. I don’t see any game-changers ready to help in 2023 unless they hit the gas on Pete Crow-Armstrong, who has all of nine games of Double-A under his belt.

Big Bucs: The Pirates paid Bryan Reynolds??? He should take the team for a nice dinner. I doubt that contract happens if the Pirates don’t have the best record in the NL through the first 20+ games. Cheapo owner probably realized they’re going to be more competitive in the next couple years than they’d thought prior to the start of the season

Jay Jaffe: I think you’re off base here in that the framework of the deal is the same as it was around Opening Day, before they were 16-7. The difference is that he dropped his opt-out demand and got limited no-trade protection instead, a clear win for the club. It’s a very reasonable deal

Mike M: Your updated prediction for the Dodgers win total?  Your updated prediction for their win total if Mookie plays 20 games at SS?

Jay Jaffe: i’d say it’s about 84 wins either way. Weird times.

toshi: How long do we have to wait to see whether Kelenic has really changed for better? Thank you!

Jay Jaffe: it’s starting to come into focus and it looks very real and much, much better. The contact is much more frequent and more productive when it happens. I don’t expect him to keep slugging .667 or putting up a 189 wRC+ but i think his days of hitting .141 and striking out 1/3 of the time are behind him

chris: was looking at baseball-reference playoff odds vs. fangraph playoff odds. Some teams are waayyyyy different, the most shocking being the Padres. Sitting at 78.5% playoff odds here and 19.4% (!!!!) at baseball-reference. 538 splits the difference at 66%. Are these vastly different percentages even possible???

Jay Jaffe: B-Ref has a vastly different methodology for computing its odds and I’ve never seen any demonstration as to how they hold up, whereas Ben Clemens audited our results in 2021 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-well-do-our-odds-work/

Jay Jaffe: I have no idea how FiveThirtyEight does their odds either (ugh, bummer about the layoffs there).

Tstats: ‘Ello Jay! do you think savant will release VAA data soon? if not is there a place to find it (or even its components for the formula?). I recently spent a week computing IVB data just for the day I finish be the day savant releases its leaderboards!

Jay Jaffe: I hope so but have no inside information. I don’t use it much, am only starting to get a handle on it, but I know it’s available at Alex Chamberlain’s pitch leaderboard https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/chamb117/viz/PitchLeaderboardv5…

Max Muncy, That Funky Muncy: What a heater Muncy is on! Balls appear juiced this year since it seems HR numbers are up across the board

Jay Jaffe: Home runs are up about 6% relative to last year, fly ball ditsances are up about 4 feet relative to games through April 24 in 2022 and ’23 seasons, and per Rob Arthur, drag is down a bit: “This year, we’re on track for a baseball that’s roughly as aerodynamic as it was in 2020 and 2021, leading to high but not stratospheric home run numbers.” https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/81981/moonshot-drag-20…

Insert Witty Name Here: We’re almost a month into the new season and the pitch clock and shift rules are…not really noticeable? Your thoughts on the early going?

Jay Jaffe: I’d say they’re noticeable but not distracting. I think there are some dumb applications of the pitch clock (penalizing Bellinger for the ovation) and I could stand a couple of extra seconds of slack but we’re seeing as much if not more time cut off during regular season games as we did in spring training. Batting averages and BABIP are up, offense is up. a promising start.

NihilistDuda: As a Mets fan, feel pretty good right now with 4 starters out and a 7-3 West Coast swing (usually our death knell). Thoughts on the Amazins so far, Jay?

Jay Jaffe: They’ve weathered a lot of bad luck early. I’m even more concerned about their rotation depth than I otherwise would be given Scherzer’s early struggles; he’s looking very 38 right now.

JR: So sad about O’Hoppe. What are the chances this injury significantly affects his performance into 2024 or beyond?

Jay Jaffe: There’s definitely a chance, particularly as his left shoulder is his lead shoulder as a hitter, which can sap power. Tatis, Bellinger, Greg Bird and Matt Kemp come to mind as hitter who had lead/non-throwing labrum injuries, and they offer some cautionary tales.

NihilistDuda: I know it’s super early in his career but thoughts on Pete Alonso’s bid for the HoF?

Jay Jaffe: not high. He’s got fantastic power and is a competent first baseman but while he’s put up big HR numbers, his OBPs are meh, and he’s s got one 5.5-WAR season and two in the low 4s so far — he needs some 6 and 7s to start building a Hall case. Preseason ZiPS projects him for career totals of 442 homers and 33.5 WAR, which won’t get it done.

Richie: Clearly Spencer Strider doesn’t NEED third pitch to be successful….but if he developed one? Should he? Is it possible to be better? Or is the “stick to what you excel at” the best thing for him?

Jay Jaffe: IMO it’s not a question of if Strider will need a third pitch but when, because he won’t be able to Bring It like this forever. Clearly he doesn’t need it today (or in time for his next start)

Mookie: Red Sox recently sending down one of the few exciting pieces on their team in Bryan Bello. Are they turning into the Rockies?

Jay Jaffe: he’s got two starts, both with three or more runs in fewer than five innings. He’s got promise but the excitement must be coming in short bursts because a 9.82 ERA and 6.62 FIP isn’t going to get it done. He’s also got options remaining, so I’d expect him to be shuttling when it suits the Red Sox, up to the point that he reaches his five-time limit.

I say Halo: This could literally be the most pivotable time in the history of the Angels franchise.  Hovering around .500 with a little over 2 months until we approach the deadline.  Shohei stay or Shohei go? How do you see it playing out, buyers for a run or the biggest sale ever at the deadline?

Jay Jaffe: I think they’re better than this but… they don’t seem to care what I think on that subject and insist on playing .500sh ball. Right now I’d be surprised if they trade him because I think they believe they can spend as big as any team, and have proven they can handle him in a way that works. But if they can’t get it together over the next 2 1/2 months I think they have to consider doing the unthinkable.

Sharp: I really enjoyed your article about Salt Lake City expansion. My friends who live in the area acted like there was no way it was possible. But I like thinking about alternative locations and based on their proposal it sounds like it’s a long shot but it *could* work.

Jay Jaffe: Thanks. I think it’s one that even the locals might have trouble wrapping their heads around but it does seem to have more pieces in place than your average expansion bid — location, transit, primary ownership group with experience in running a major sports franchise AND in getting a facility built. The climate (the lake) is a major issue and i just don’t know what the political will is like to tackle the water rights stuff that is exacerbating the situation.

Derek: Is this version of Cody Bellinger here to stay (and stay successful)? I hesitate to ask if he’s “back” because this low-K, high contact, middling exit velo profile doesn’t really seem to resemble anything he’s ever looked like, even when he was good!

Jay Jaffe: You know that Bart Simpson chalkboard bit in the opening credits of the Simpsons? The version of me in that one is writing:

I AM NOT READY TO DECLARE THAT CODY BELLINGER IS FIXED
I AM NOT READY TO DECLARE THAT CODY BELLINGER IS FIXED
I AM NOT READY TO DECLARE THAT CODY BELLINGER IS FIXED
I AM NOT READY TO DECLARE THAT CODY BELLINGER IS FIXED
etc

A’s relocation: Am I wrong to think that things probably won’t work out very well for the A’s in Las Vegas? They’re moving from one of the largest population and TV markets to one of the smallest, and they think tourists are going to help fill their stadium 81 times a year.

Jay Jaffe: It sure as hell doesn’t look all that rosy if you’re not John Fisher and Dave Kaval. I don’t love their odds, and feel like they’re the classic desperate gambler pulling into Vegas believing they’re due to turn things around.

Christian: A twist on all the Kelenic questions I’m sure you are tired of getting: what does a Kelenic extension look like if he plays at an All-Star level the rest of the year?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a question for Dan and his ZiPSmobile

LFGM: Syndergaard’s fastball is down several ticks since his TJ surgery.  Will he get his velocity back another year removed from surgery or is this it?

Jay Jaffe: the hype was supposed to be that he’d be BACK this year but he’s looked pretty mediocre, and his fastball scores just a 63 on Stuff+, down 3 points from last year; his overall Stuff+ has fallen from 87 to 76. Look out below!

Charlie: When is it time to panic for St. Louis?

Jay Jaffe: now’s a good time given that rotation

Pattern Developing: 2018: Aaron Judge sets rookie HR record with 52.  2019: Pete Alonso breaks record with 53 HR.  2022: Aaron Judge sets league record with 62 HR.  2023: Pete Alonso …………….

Jay Jaffe: … does not surpass Judge’s 62 homers. Judge got to where he got to with a 95.8 mph average exit velo, 26.2% barrel rate and a .706 xSLG. Alonso doesn’t have the capability of producing specs like that (averaging 91.2 mph, 17.9% barrel rate, .657 xSLG) — but then just about nobody on earth can produce specs like that.

Jay Jaffe: There’s no shame in that, but I don’t think Judge makes sense as a yardstick.

Matt VW: Triston Casas is off to a pretty rocky start. How much of this is “it’s April,” how much of this is “sometimes adjusting to the bigs takes a minute,” and how much of this is “the Red Sox have seen a ton of left-handed pitching to start the season”?

Jay Jaffe: There’s probably an element of truth to all of these but he’s been only had 23 PA against lefties and is hitting .106/.246/.255 in 57 PA against righties, which seems to me like a bigger problem.

Rick Ankielosaurus: If baseball had begun with DH and its recent Ohtani rules, wouldn’t there have already been some two-way players with sustained elite two-way production? Maybe Ohtani is a better SP than a fully two-way Ruth would have been, but he isn’t hitting at Ruth’s level. W.Ferrell allowed to full-time DH. Dihigo, period. Ohtani’s impressive, of course, but isn’t the extent to which he’s unprecedented reliant on friendly rules his predecessors didn’t get to benefit from?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, there may be something to that but Ferrell and Ruth were playing in segregated leagues that excluded some of the very best talent around, where Ohtani is competing against a much higher level of talent.

Aidan: I don’t know if he turned heads outside of Oakland, but is Mason Miller likely to shoot up the prospect rankings, or is it still too small a sample size? He hit 102.5  mph in his debut.

Jay Jaffe: I’d say it’s pretty early. His Top 100 ranking included a 70-grade fastball but also 30/40 command, and factored his injury risk in there. Let’s wait and see.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, lots of good questions in the queue  but I’ve gotta rest my arm (seriously, my shoulder hurts after I played catch with a friend on Friday and threw full-tilt for the first time in at least 6 years). Thanks for stopping by, and we’ll see you next week!