2026 Positional Power Rankings: Bullpen (No. 1-15)


There are some positions for which a cleaner, wider gap exists between the top teams and the bottom, where we can more definitively say that some teams are better than others. For instance, the talent that the Dodgers and Astros have at DH separates their projections from the rest of baseball in a meaningful way. Relief pitching is not one of these positions. As you digest the forecasts and player details below, make sure to note how thin the margins tend to be from one team to the next. Also know that relief inning sample sizes are small enough that this is where WAR is the least good at properly calibrating impact and value, a dynamic heightened in the playoffs when the remaining bullpens are all turbocharged by the way the postseason schedule allows for rest, or for an elite starter to work an inning on his bullpen day. Things like coherent managerial usage, roster management, and good or bad health luck tend to play a huge role in the way bullpens perform throughout a season, and those are factors we can’t totally control for here. I felt free to point out the situations in which I think the projection is off base.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Miller | 66 | 14.5 | 3.3 | 0.8 | .276 | 80.4% | 2.43 | 2.30 | 2.3 |
| Adrian Morejon | 68 | 9.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | .290 | 73.5% | 3.39 | 3.34 | 1.1 |
| Jason Adam | 61 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | .281 | 73.2% | 3.52 | 3.77 | 0.5 |
| Jeremiah Estrada | 70 | 12.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | .285 | 76.7% | 3.29 | 3.24 | 1.1 |
| David Morgan | 58 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.1 | .287 | 72.3% | 4.05 | 4.13 | 0.1 |
| Wandy Peralta | 57 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 0.8 | .290 | 72.3% | 3.85 | 4.01 | 0.1 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | 52 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.0 | .287 | 72.2% | 4.15 | 4.38 | 0.0 |
| Kyle Hart | 48 | 8.1 | 3.0 | 1.3 | .293 | 71.9% | 4.27 | 4.33 | -0.0 |
| Yuki Matsui | 44 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | .286 | 73.7% | 4.11 | 4.23 | 0.0 |
| Ron Marinaccio | 40 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | .283 | 71.5% | 4.26 | 4.45 | 0.0 |
| Alek Jacob | 35 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.3 | .284 | 70.1% | 4.70 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| Garrett Hawkins | 30 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | .287 | 73.1% | 4.20 | 4.24 | 0.0 |
| Ty Adcock | 26 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | .289 | 73.1% | 4.29 | 4.40 | -0.0 |
| Logan Gillaspie | 24 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | .291 | 71.1% | 4.51 | 4.58 | -0.0 |
| Walker Buehler | 22 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | .295 | 69.4% | 4.99 | 4.93 | -0.0 |
| Jhony Brito | 18 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | .291 | 71.5% | 4.18 | 4.24 | 0.0 |
| JP Sears | 16 | 8.0 | 2.5 | 1.6 | .280 | 71.3% | 4.50 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| Griffin Canning | 14 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | .292 | 71.8% | 4.54 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| Randy Vásquez | 12 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | .286 | 69.3% | 4.79 | 4.95 | -0.0 |
| Triston McKenzie | 11 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | .282 | 72.3% | 4.80 | 5.01 | -0.0 |
| Francis Peña | 10 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.1 | .291 | 71.9% | 4.36 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| Germán Márquez | 8 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.4 | .300 | 68.7% | 5.00 | 4.83 | -0.0 |
| Daison Acosta | 6 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | .286 | 72.9% | 4.43 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| Total | 569 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | .287 | 73.0% | 3.91 | 3.99 | 4.9 |
The Padres had the best bullpen in baseball last year by far, as they posted a collective 3.06 ERA, nearly half a run better than the next-best cluster of teams. They also led the league in bullpen WAR (7.6, compared to the next-best team at 6.8) even though they were in the middle third of the league in relief innings pitched. The dominance and per-inning efficiency of the backend of San Diego’s bullpen makes them a threat to shorten games as well as any other team in baseball come postseason time. And when you start to run through the stuff of its individual members, you can see why.
Miller, who wasn’t even a part of this group for all of last season, has carved a unique path to becoming maybe the game’s best reliever. He carried an ERA over 7.00 in his first two seasons at Division III Waynesburg, but started to take off once he learned that he was diabetic and began to manage his condition properly. Injuries stymied him until he became a full-time reliever in 2024, and he’s since been perhaps the most dominant bullpen arm in baseball, as he’s K’d 14.78 batters per nine, easily the highest mark in the majors, while averaging 101 mph on his fastball.
Behind Miller is a deep, talented group of players who would be setup men or closers on lots of teams. Splitter monster Jeremiah Estrada hasn’t been far behind Miller in terms of K/9 (13.57, the fourth-best mark league-wide) since he broke out two seasons ago. Adrian Morejon is among the hardest-throwing relief lefties in all of baseball, with a 97-mph fastball and a 94-mph cutter. He tied for fourth in WAR among all relievers in 2025, higher even than Miller. Fellow southpaw Wandy Peralta generated a 59.7% groundball rate last season, but he might be Craig Stammen’s third-best option against lefties because Jason Adam’s changeup has helped him hold them to a .166 average during his career. David Morgan, undrafted out of an NAIA school (Hope International), has upper-90s velo and a great curveball, and could join this group in statue by the end of his sophomore season. Despite losing closer Robert Suarez to the Braves in free agency, this group shouldn’t miss a beat.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Uceta | 62 | 10.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | .283 | 74.3% | 3.66 | 3.71 | 0.8 |
| Griffin Jax | 68 | 11.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | .294 | 76.9% | 2.83 | 2.69 | 1.9 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | 66 | 11.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | .287 | 75.8% | 3.26 | 3.43 | 0.9 |
| Bryan Baker | 63 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | .285 | 73.4% | 3.80 | 3.74 | 0.6 |
| Mason Englert | 60 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | .291 | 71.6% | 3.99 | 3.95 | 0.3 |
| Cole Sulser | 56 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | .295 | 72.2% | 4.17 | 4.22 | 0.1 |
| Hunter Bigge | 52 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | .288 | 74.2% | 4.22 | 4.39 | -0.0 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | 46 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | .284 | 71.9% | 4.27 | 4.37 | 0.0 |
| Kevin Kelly | 44 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | .290 | 70.9% | 3.83 | 3.87 | 0.1 |
| Steven Wilson | 43 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.5 | .277 | 71.1% | 4.69 | 4.84 | -0.0 |
| Jesse Scholtens | 36 | 7.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | .293 | 71.9% | 4.22 | 4.20 | 0.0 |
| Ian Seymour | 34 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | .283 | 71.1% | 4.17 | 4.20 | 0.0 |
| Nick Martinez | 26 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | .294 | 69.6% | 4.33 | 4.17 | 0.0 |
| Joe Boyle | 22 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.0 | .288 | 72.9% | 4.05 | 4.12 | 0.0 |
| Luis Guerrero | 18 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 1.3 | .281 | 70.8% | 4.85 | 5.09 | -0.0 |
| Manuel Rodríguez | 16 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 0.9 | .296 | 70.7% | 3.83 | 3.80 | 0.0 |
| Cam Booser | 14 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | .294 | 74.0% | 4.21 | 4.36 | 0.0 |
| Steven Matz | 12 | 8.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | .298 | 73.0% | 3.95 | 3.93 | 0.0 |
| Joe Rock | 10 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | .294 | 71.5% | 4.19 | 4.25 | 0.0 |
| Evan Reifert | 8 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.1 | .289 | 72.3% | 4.25 | 4.41 | -0.0 |
| Total | 570 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | .289 | 72.9% | 3.91 | 3.95 | 4.7 |
The Rays led baseball in bullpen xFIP last season (3.75), and of course the fielding independent stats tend to be more predictive than ERA, a stat in which Rays relievers were more middle of the pack (3.81) while they played in an odd hitting environment.
Edwin Uceta is currently on his way back from a shoulder injury and hasn’t thrown in a spring training game as of this writing, but he’s an example of the Rays’ player identification and development bonafides, as he went from an early-career journeyman who was on four big league rosters in his first four seasons to a top-flight low-slot reliever. Uceta ties hitters in knots working up with his fastball and then down with his excellent changeup, and ranks 11th in K/9 since 2024.
Griffin Jax, acquired at last year’s trade deadline, is as durable and reliable as virtually any reliever in baseball. He ranks third among relievers in WAR the last two seasons combined and is third in relief innings pitched since 2022. His arsenal is deep enough that, when they acquired him, I thought Tampa Bay might consider stretching him out as a starter, but he’s worked exclusively as a reliever for the Rays and Team USA this spring.
Many other pieces of this relief corps were acquired via trade fairly recently. Former Rangers prospect and Tigers Rule 5 draftee Mason Englert has had a velo spike since joining Tampa Bay, and his other pitches have thrived since he shelved his slider. Hunter Bigge, who studied physics at Harvard, had a velo spike under the Cubs’ tutelage, then came to the Rays as part of the Isaac Paredes deal. Ahead of last year’s draft, Bryan Baker (probably the third banana in this bullpen) was acquired in exchange for the 37th overall pick that the Orioles then used on prep outfielder Slater de Brun, who they then traded to the Rays as part of the Shane Baz deal. Cole Sulser had his best strike-throwing season in the bigs last year as a 35-year-old; the Rays acquired him from the Mets in 2024.
The long-time stalwart here is lefty Garrett Cleavinger, who has been a Ray since mid-2022. He and funky lefty Ian Seymour, who had success as a minor league starter but moved to the bullpen last year, will be a formidable southpaw tandem. Cleavinger relies on a pretty traditional fastball-slider mix, while Seymour has a deep repertoire headlined by a screwball-style changeup.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edwin Díaz | 66 | 12.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | .289 | 76.2% | 2.98 | 2.90 | 1.7 |
| Tanner Scott | 63 | 10.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | .288 | 74.5% | 3.47 | 3.53 | 1.1 |
| Alex Vesia | 61 | 11.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | .276 | 76.7% | 3.55 | 3.80 | 0.8 |
| Will Klein | 58 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.0 | .291 | 71.6% | 4.43 | 4.38 | 0.1 |
| Ben Casparius | 55 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | .289 | 70.6% | 4.62 | 4.53 | 0.0 |
| Blake Treinen | 54 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | .298 | 73.1% | 3.94 | 3.76 | 0.3 |
| Jack Dreyer | 52 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | .285 | 72.2% | 4.13 | 4.18 | 0.1 |
| Edgardo Henriquez | 46 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.2 | .287 | 71.0% | 4.42 | 4.39 | 0.0 |
| Brusdar Graterol | 44 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | .293 | 72.8% | 3.54 | 3.58 | 0.1 |
| Brock Stewart | 40 | 10.5 | 3.6 | 1.1 | .289 | 73.8% | 3.81 | 3.77 | 0.1 |
| Justin Wrobleski | 37 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | .291 | 71.7% | 4.26 | 4.27 | 0.0 |
| Paul Gervase | 33 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.4 | .284 | 70.8% | 4.66 | 4.72 | -0.0 |
| Evan Phillips | 28 | 9.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | .288 | 74.3% | 3.46 | 3.53 | 0.1 |
| Kyle Hurt | 26 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | .292 | 71.4% | 4.38 | 4.33 | 0.0 |
| Bobby Miller | 22 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.2 | .292 | 69.6% | 4.57 | 4.35 | 0.0 |
| Roki Sasaki | 20 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | .297 | 71.7% | 4.16 | 4.04 | 0.0 |
| Emmet Sheehan | 18 | 10.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | .283 | 72.6% | 3.97 | 3.90 | 0.0 |
| Ronan Kopp | 16 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 1.2 | .287 | 72.8% | 4.53 | 4.66 | -0.0 |
| Landon Knack | 14 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | .286 | 69.5% | 4.94 | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| Gavin Stone | 12 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 1.3 | .292 | 70.4% | 4.42 | 4.29 | 0.0 |
| Ryder Ryan | 10 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | .297 | 71.7% | 4.68 | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| River Ryan | 8 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | .291 | 69.8% | 4.81 | 4.87 | -0.0 |
| Total | 586 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | .289 | 72.7% | 4.01 | 4.00 | 4.5 |
The Dodgers squeaked ahead of the White Sox by one extra out to lead all of baseball in relief innings in 2025 with 657.2, a rate of just over four innings per game. Most of those innings were thrown by rookies Ben Casparius and Jack Dreyer, who were two of the three Dodgers relievers to work more than 60 innings last year. L.A.’s bullpen is lefty-heavy, even with Anthony Banda having been traded to Minnesota. In addition to Dreyer, the Dodgers will roll out Alex Vesia, Justin Wrobleski (who could act as a swingman) and Tanner Scott. Scott, who signed a four-year, $72 million deal last offseason, is looking to rebound after he posted a career-low K per nine and his worst full-season ERA since 2018.
The Dodgers are hoping that Edwin Díaz will help them avoid two consecutive high-profile free agency misfires in their ‘pen. Díaz, who signed a three-year, $69 (!) million deal this offseason has arguably been the best reliever in all of baseball since he debuted in 2016. He leads all relievers in WAR during that span, and he’s fourth since 2022 even though he is the only guy in that window’s top nine who has thrown fewer than 200 total innings. Though Díaz’s fastball quality slipped a tad last year, he still has an elite slider, which will fit right in with a slider-heavy Dodgers contingent that ranked in the top four in slider Stuff+ last season.
World Series hero Will Klein and hard-throwing enigma Edgardo Henriquez are two talented early-career players who could level up and occupy more stable, important roles in this year’s bullpen. The same is likely to be true for at least one failed starter, be it Bobby Miller, Roki Sasaki, or Kyle Hurt. Even if Scott continues to struggle or Díaz’s 2025 indeed marks the start of his decline, it will only take one or two of these youngsters thriving in relief to counter an expensive whiff.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhoan Duran | 70 | 10.8 | 2.8 | 0.5 | .298 | 75.7% | 2.67 | 2.60 | 2.1 |
| José Alvarado | 64 | 10.5 | 3.7 | 0.8 | .295 | 76.1% | 3.30 | 3.33 | 1.2 |
| Brad Keller | 68 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | .294 | 72.0% | 4.20 | 4.28 | 0.2 |
| Tanner Banks | 63 | 8.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | .291 | 73.2% | 3.85 | 3.89 | 0.5 |
| Jonathan Bowlan | 58 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 1.2 | .293 | 72.4% | 4.16 | 4.16 | 0.1 |
| Orion Kerkering | 54 | 9.9 | 3.3 | 0.9 | .291 | 73.9% | 3.49 | 3.54 | 0.4 |
| Kyle Backhus | 52 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | .292 | 70.6% | 4.31 | 4.28 | 0.0 |
| Tim Mayza | 48 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | .301 | 72.6% | 4.05 | 4.02 | 0.1 |
| Zach Pop | 42 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | .300 | 69.1% | 4.65 | 4.55 | -0.0 |
| Chase Shugart | 38 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | .288 | 70.1% | 4.65 | 4.75 | -0.0 |
| Taijuan Walker | 34 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | .292 | 69.9% | 4.97 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| Max Lazar | 31 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | .291 | 70.3% | 4.54 | 4.48 | -0.0 |
| Lou Trivino | 24 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | .295 | 70.9% | 4.59 | 4.60 | 0.0 |
| Seth Johnson | 20 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | .293 | 71.1% | 4.81 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| Génesis Cabrera | 18 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.4 | .290 | 71.6% | 4.68 | 4.83 | -0.0 |
| Andrew Painter | 16 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | .291 | 70.5% | 4.73 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| Nolan Hoffman | 13 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.2 | .296 | 69.7% | 4.59 | 4.57 | -0.0 |
| Alan Rangel | 12 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 1.5 | .289 | 69.6% | 4.77 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| Bryse Wilson | 11 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | .292 | 69.0% | 4.94 | 4.92 | -0.0 |
| Griff McGarry | 10 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.1 | .290 | 72.1% | 4.39 | 4.43 | -0.0 |
| Tucker Davidson | 8 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | .297 | 70.9% | 4.51 | 4.48 | -0.0 |
| Total | 523 | 8.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | .294 | 72.1% | 4.08 | 4.09 | 4.5 |
The other top-flight reliever traded by Minnesota at last year’s deadline is here in Jhoan Duran, who (along with Griffin Jax) spearheaded the Twins’ no. 1 ranking in this space a year ago. Duran’s stuff is from another planet, not only nasty but also convention-breaking. He’ll run his fastball up to 103, he has a curveball with absurd velocity (sitting 86-87) for a pitch with curveball break, and don’t forget his fabled “splinker,” a modified split that averages 97 mph. Duran has been the fourth-most valuable reliever in baseball since 2022, with a 2.44 ERA during that span. The Phils gave up a lot for Duran — Mick Abel is poised to break out and Eduardo Tait is a Top 100 prospect — but they have this force of nature in red pinstripes for another two seasons.
José Alvarado was ineligible for last year’s postseason due to a positive PED test. He touched 99 in his most recent Grapefruit League outing prior to this writing and appears to be at full strength, ready to operate as a premium setup man once again. Orion Kerkering (who will begin the year on the IL with a hamstring issue) is the other late-inning holdover from the last couple of Phillies seasons and will look to sweep (see what I did there?) last season’s playoff blunder under the rug as a reliable and effective seventh- or eighth-inning weapon. The Duran/Alvarado/Kerkering trio is as talented as any contender’s best three. Tanner Banks provides valuable length when Rob Thomson needs a reliever to work multiple innings, and is a candidate to stretch out and start in the event that Philly suffers a slew of injuries.
Other elements of Philly’s bullpen are new. Sinkerballer Brad Keller had struggled in a relief role with Kansas City but broke out with the Cubs in his contract year and was rewarded with a two-year, $22 million deal during the offseason. His WBC stint with Team USA has limited his spring reps with JT Realmuto and it might take Keller a minute to get comfortable, but the hard-throwing groundball machine should jockey with Kerkering for third banana status here. Fellow ex-Royals Jonathan Bowlan is straight out of middle relief central casting except for his enormous size. Lou Trivino (Slippery Rock) and Tim Mayza (Millersville) are both prodigal sons of the Pennsylvania State Athletic Conference who will give members of the Commonwealth a warm and fuzzy feeling if they can play a stable middle inning role.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | 62 | 12.8 | 4.1 | 0.8 | .296 | 77.8% | 2.96 | 2.87 | 1.7 |
| Garrett Whitlock | 70 | 10.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | .299 | 74.6% | 3.32 | 3.17 | 1.3 |
| Greg Weissert | 65 | 8.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | .297 | 71.6% | 4.21 | 4.14 | 0.3 |
| Justin Slaten | 61 | 8.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | .295 | 71.7% | 3.99 | 3.92 | 0.4 |
| Zack Kelly | 58 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.1 | .294 | 71.6% | 4.36 | 4.38 | 0.0 |
| Danny Coulombe | 55 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | .295 | 73.7% | 3.76 | 3.80 | 0.3 |
| Jovani Morán | 52 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 0.9 | .298 | 74.1% | 3.74 | 3.64 | 0.1 |
| Tommy Kahnle | 46 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.1 | .295 | 70.6% | 4.53 | 4.53 | -0.0 |
| Kutter Crawford | 42 | 8.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | .288 | 70.8% | 4.32 | 4.25 | 0.0 |
| Patrick Sandoval | 40 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 0.9 | .304 | 72.6% | 3.98 | 3.89 | 0.1 |
| Tayron Guerrero | 34 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.2 | .305 | 70.1% | 4.86 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| Tyler Samaniego | 32 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | .298 | 72.0% | 4.31 | 4.36 | 0.0 |
| Ryan Watson | 28 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | .300 | 71.6% | 4.25 | 4.22 | 0.0 |
| Johan Oviedo | 24 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | .294 | 70.9% | 4.29 | 4.27 | 0.0 |
| Jake Bennett | 22 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.1 | .298 | 70.4% | 4.44 | 4.40 | -0.0 |
| Kyle Keller | 18 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.4 | .301 | 70.9% | 4.96 | 4.82 | -0.0 |
| Seth Martinez | 16 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | .295 | 70.5% | 4.56 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| Payton Tolle | 12 | 9.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | .292 | 72.3% | 4.09 | 4.00 | 0.0 |
| Connelly Early | 8 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | .296 | 72.0% | 3.88 | 3.85 | 0.0 |
| Total | 539 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.0 | .297 | 72.5% | 4.03 | 3.98 | 4.2 |
Chapman is entering his 17th big league season and his second in a Red Sox uniform. The potential future Hall of Famer was still one of the best relievers in baseball last year, as he posted an incredible 1.17 ERA across 61.1 innings and his best WAR mark since 2016. Perhaps even more impressive was that Chapman’s FIP (1.73), xERA (2.06) and xFIP (2.53) weren’t much worse. Father Time is undefeated, and at some point he will come for Chapman’s hard-throwing left arm, but it’d be surprising if it happened this season.
If for some reason it does, Garrett Whitlock has the stuff to fill in as a good closer, though it remains to be seen if he has the on-mound temperament. While he has pretty soundly been a top 20 reliever in every key statistical category (especially when we’re talking about efficiency — Whitlock has a 6% career walk rate), he has never closed, and at times looked on tilt when deployed in big spots for Team USA during this year’s WBC. Each of Whitlock’s three pitches generated plus or better swing and miss in 2025 as he got back to throwing more fastballs (with more sink and tail) than in 2024 when he blew out. He’s one of the better setup men in the entire league.
If there’s anyone listed here who might outperform their projected impact, it’s Peyton Tolle. The Leviathan lefty is one of several optionable starters on Boston’s 40-man. His secondary pitch quality and command might be long-term barriers for him starting, and Boston’s depth could allow them to ‘pen Tolle without compromising their rotation, even if that’s just toward the end of the year when they want to upgrade the back end. Tolle could thrive in such a role simply be ripping his fastball past everyone. He was a top 30 prospect despite some trepidation about him sticking in the rotation because we think he’d be so dominant in relief that he’d justify that ranking anyway.
Justin Slaten looked like a potential late-inning option as a rookie in 2024, but he’s dealt with injury (elbow and shoulder) the last two years, and his pitch usage (fewer breakers last year, and now way more cutters during 2026 spring training) seems to be in flux. Greg Weissert and his beautiful breaking balls match up well against righties, while Danny Coloumbe and changeup meister Tommy Kahnle are primed to douse lefties.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abner Uribe | 72 | 10.8 | 4.1 | 0.7 | .284 | 75.5% | 3.12 | 3.32 | 1.3 |
| Trevor Megill | 66 | 11.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | .291 | 77.0% | 3.28 | 3.26 | 1.2 |
| Jared Koenig | 65 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | .290 | 74.1% | 3.56 | 3.62 | 0.7 |
| Aaron Ashby | 67 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 0.8 | .296 | 73.4% | 3.76 | 3.85 | 0.3 |
| Angel Zerpa | 60 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | .292 | 74.4% | 3.61 | 3.79 | 0.3 |
| Grant Anderson | 56 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | .287 | 73.2% | 4.13 | 4.25 | 0.0 |
| DL Hall | 52 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.1 | .289 | 73.2% | 4.03 | 4.14 | 0.0 |
| Rob Zastryzny | 48 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | .289 | 73.0% | 4.11 | 4.22 | 0.1 |
| Easton McGee | 42 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | .288 | 70.7% | 4.13 | 4.13 | 0.0 |
| Craig Yoho | 40 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.0 | .287 | 72.1% | 4.01 | 4.11 | 0.0 |
| Carlos Rodriguez | 34 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | .283 | 71.1% | 4.44 | 4.53 | -0.0 |
| Shane Drohan | 30 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | .289 | 71.6% | 4.33 | 4.37 | -0.0 |
| Robert Gasser | 26 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | .287 | 72.1% | 4.06 | 4.20 | 0.0 |
| Coleman Crow | 21 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | .287 | 72.6% | 3.83 | 3.89 | 0.0 |
| Brandon Sproat | 22 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | .288 | 70.6% | 4.21 | 4.27 | 0.0 |
| Logan Henderson | 16 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 1.4 | .281 | 72.5% | 4.15 | 4.15 | 0.0 |
| Kyle Harrison | 14 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | .291 | 72.1% | 4.28 | 4.29 | -0.0 |
| Tate Kuehner | 12 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.0 | .290 | 72.1% | 4.25 | 4.41 | -0.0 |
| Sammy Peralta | 10 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | .288 | 71.3% | 4.08 | 4.14 | 0.0 |
| Jacob Misiorowski | 8 | 10.4 | 4.1 | 1.1 | .283 | 72.8% | 3.98 | 4.03 | 0.0 |
| K.C. Hunt | 6 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 1.2 | .287 | 71.4% | 4.20 | 4.16 | 0.0 |
| Total | 592 | 9.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | .289 | 73.3% | 3.84 | 3.93 | 4.1 |
The mercurial Abner Uribe is coming off a breakout 2025 in which he worked 75.1 innings, posted a 1.67 ERA, and cut his walk rate to 9.1%, way below his previously problematic 16.6% career rate. Was this a true, sustainable progression, or a blip? The answer will dictate whether Uribe remains an elite late-inning force or returns to erratic setup man territory. Trevor Megill has been more consistent, with single-digit walks rates every season of his career and sub-3.30 FIPs each of the last four. He hasn’t been especially durable, however, and has never worked more than 47 innings in a single season.
The middle of Milwaukee’s ‘pen is very left-handed. Once an unranked prospect, Jared Koenig has now had back-to-back seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA. After returning from a preseason oblique injury, Aaron Ashby had his healthiest and most productive season since 2022, when he was a starter. He’s now a breaker-heavy long reliever. The Crew are hoping that lefty DL Hall, another former top prospect who came over in the Corbin Burnes trade, can enjoy a similarly healthy breakout. The Brewers have fleshed out his repertoire since acquiring him. Newcomer Angel Zerpa might end up being the best reliever in this entire bullpen. He evolved into a sinker/slider groundball machine with Kansas City and, fresh off a WBC title run with Team Venezuela, looks even stronger this spring.
Grant Anderson has held righties to a .287 career wOBA, while lefties own a career .391 mark against him.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Hader | 61 | 12.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | .276 | 77.1% | 3.21 | 3.26 | 1.4 |
| Bryan Abreu | 68 | 12.0 | 3.8 | 0.8 | .289 | 77.9% | 2.97 | 3.10 | 1.5 |
| Bryan King | 67 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | .288 | 74.5% | 3.67 | 3.90 | 0.5 |
| Steven Okert | 64 | 10.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | .281 | 74.3% | 3.85 | 3.99 | 0.4 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | 60 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 1.3 | .287 | 73.4% | 4.14 | 4.30 | 0.1 |
| Roddery Muñoz | 54 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.5 | .287 | 72.5% | 4.57 | 4.75 | -0.2 |
| Kai-Wei Teng | 52 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | .292 | 69.3% | 4.43 | 4.37 | -0.0 |
| Nate Pearson | 50 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | .290 | 72.6% | 4.40 | 4.48 | 0.0 |
| Christian Roa | 46 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.2 | .289 | 72.7% | 4.43 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| Ryan Weiss | 40 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | .295 | 71.9% | 4.20 | 4.20 | 0.0 |
| AJ Blubaugh | 37 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | .286 | 72.1% | 4.41 | 4.55 | -0.0 |
| Bennett Sousa | 30 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | .290 | 76.3% | 3.57 | 3.73 | 0.1 |
| Jayden Murray | 26 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | .291 | 70.3% | 4.60 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| Colton Gordon | 24 | 7.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | .290 | 72.7% | 4.16 | 4.30 | 0.0 |
| Hayden Wesneski | 22 | 8.6 | 2.9 | 1.3 | .287 | 71.8% | 4.23 | 4.25 | 0.0 |
| Lance McCullers Jr. | 18 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.1 | .295 | 71.6% | 4.38 | 4.46 | -0.0 |
| Jason Alexander | 16 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | .297 | 71.0% | 4.52 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| Spencer Arrighetti | 14 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | .287 | 71.8% | 4.46 | 4.55 | -0.0 |
| Peter Lambert | 13 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | .299 | 72.7% | 4.29 | 4.32 | 0.0 |
| Tom Cosgrove | 12 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.2 | .283 | 70.2% | 4.54 | 4.67 | -0.0 |
| Ronel Blanco | 10 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | .284 | 74.0% | 4.13 | 4.33 | 0.0 |
| Mike Burrows | 8 | 8.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | .287 | 72.7% | 4.10 | 4.17 | 0.0 |
| Total | 572 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | .288 | 73.3% | 4.02 | 4.15 | 3.7 |
Josh Hader posted a 2.05 ERA and 3.25 FIP in 2025, striking out 36.9% of hitters before a shoulder capsule strain ended his season in mid-August. He is dealing with a biceps injury this spring and will open the season on the IL. Injuries aside, as he enters his 10th big league season, he remains one of the best relievers in baseball. Since his debut, Hader is second among all relievers in WAR, basically neck-and-neck with Edwin Díaz at the very top, and a win and a half more productive than the third-place Raisel Iglesias. Despite his success, his velocity has slipped a bit in each of the past two seasons, and opposing hitters elevated his stuff more successfully last year; he also leaned much more heavily on his slider. These might be signs that Hader is searching for other ways to get guys out, and that his days as a truly elite reliever are numbered. He has three years left on his deal.
It took Bryan Abreu all three of his option years to find his footing in the big leagues, but once he did, he became one of the most durable and productive relievers in baseball. He’s third in appearances, second in innings pitched, and fifth in WAR since 2022, and among the league’s prolific bullpen arms, Abreu is the only one tallying strikeouts with such frequency. He has 221.1 innings and a 12.52 K/9 since 2023. You have to slide all the way down to Aroldis Chapman and Hader (180 innings each) before you find a higher K/9 mark on the leaderboard during that stretch. He’ll fill the closer role with Hader out.
Scrap heap gems and journeymen make up most of the rest of Houston’s contingent here. Steven Okert was below replacement level in 2024 but was one of the most efficient lefty relievers in all of baseball last year. Enyel De Los Santos has played for eight teams since 2021, while Roddery Muñoz (Houston’s Rule 5 pick) is on his fifth since 2023. Bryan King was also a Rule 5 pick, but in the minor league phase. Former D-backs draft pick Ryan Weiss is back from Korea. How much of the contender-era Astros pitching dev magic is left?
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrés Muñoz | 64 | 11.6 | 3.5 | 0.7 | .283 | 76.5% | 2.86 | 2.98 | 1.3 |
| Matt Brash | 63 | 10.8 | 3.7 | 0.7 | .291 | 75.5% | 3.10 | 3.13 | 1.0 |
| Jose A. Ferrer | 70 | 8.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | .293 | 73.4% | 3.27 | 3.30 | 0.8 |
| Eduard Bazardo | 68 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | .284 | 73.9% | 3.63 | 3.73 | 0.4 |
| Gabe Speier | 58 | 10.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | .287 | 74.6% | 3.34 | 3.37 | 0.4 |
| Carlos Vargas | 56 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | .291 | 71.2% | 4.05 | 4.20 | -0.1 |
| Cooper Criswell | 54 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | .293 | 71.6% | 4.02 | 4.12 | -0.0 |
| Casey Legumina | 50 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | .289 | 72.5% | 4.10 | 4.17 | 0.0 |
| Emerson Hancock | 42 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | .285 | 70.9% | 4.35 | 4.49 | -0.0 |
| Yosver Zulueta | 40 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 0.9 | .291 | 72.2% | 3.88 | 3.97 | 0.0 |
| Robinson Ortiz | 34 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.0 | .285 | 71.5% | 4.20 | 4.33 | -0.0 |
| Troy Taylor | 28 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.1 | .288 | 71.4% | 4.35 | 4.48 | -0.0 |
| Cole Wilcox | 25 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | .292 | 70.8% | 4.25 | 4.31 | -0.0 |
| Ryan Loutos | 24 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | .291 | 71.5% | 4.38 | 4.44 | -0.0 |
| Alex Hoppe | 22 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | .293 | 73.2% | 4.23 | 4.44 | -0.0 |
| Domingo Gonzalez | 18 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | .283 | 71.5% | 4.31 | 4.51 | -0.0 |
| Josh Simpson | 16 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.0 | .291 | 72.6% | 4.18 | 4.32 | -0.0 |
| Dane Dunning | 12 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | .291 | 71.3% | 4.13 | 4.16 | -0.0 |
| Randy Dobnak | 10 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | .293 | 71.8% | 4.08 | 4.28 | -0.0 |
| Blas Castaño | 9 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | .288 | 69.9% | 4.40 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| Guillo Zuñiga | 8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | .284 | 70.9% | 4.50 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| Total | 536 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | .289 | 72.8% | 3.78 | 3.88 | 3.5 |
Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash both came to Seattle in trades from San Diego at the 2020 deadline and, when healthy, have established themselves as two of the nastier relievers in baseball. Muñoz has yet to post an ERA over 3.00 as a Mariner, and Brash (who missed 2024 recovering from Tommy John) K’d 11 per nine last year even though his fastball velocity was down two and a half ticks compared to before his surgery. It’s up a tick (but isn’t back to peak yet) so far in 2026.
Which version of Gabe Speier will we get this year? He has posted two excellent seasons in his three as a Mariner, with a walk-prone and injured 2024 season sandwiched in between. His fastball was pretty hittable during WBC play. If he ends up having a so-so campaign, sinkerballer Jose A. Ferrer might usurp him as this bullpen’s most important lefty. Ferrer, who was acquired in a bold offseason trade that sent catching prospect Harry Ford to the Nationals, might level up simply by throwing his slider more often. He works with sink in the upper-90s (his fastball generated a 70% groundball rate last year), he has a plus-plus changeup, and his slider produced a similarly awesome swinging strike rate in 2025 even though it was his third-most used pitch. Under Seattle’s pitching dev program, he could be a monster.
Eduard Bazardo, one of a whopping 16 Mariners who were on WBC rosters, is coming off a 78.2-inning, 2.52 ERA season after improving his slider since arriving from Boston. He’d be a good third reliever in a lot of bullpens, but here he’s fourth.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar | 65 | 11.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | .283 | 76.0% | 3.24 | 3.23 | 1.3 |
| Camilo Doval | 64 | 10.4 | 4.3 | 0.8 | .288 | 73.5% | 3.52 | 3.52 | 0.9 |
| Fernando Cruz | 61 | 12.1 | 4.2 | 1.0 | .289 | 75.9% | 3.39 | 3.38 | 0.9 |
| Tim Hill | 66 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | .296 | 70.5% | 4.15 | 4.28 | 0.1 |
| Paul Blackburn | 57 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 1.3 | .292 | 70.0% | 4.42 | 4.34 | 0.1 |
| Jake Bird | 53 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 0.9 | .289 | 71.3% | 3.92 | 3.91 | 0.2 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | 52 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | .282 | 70.4% | 4.40 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| Brent Headrick | 50 | 9.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | .283 | 72.9% | 3.99 | 4.04 | 0.1 |
| Yerry De los Santos | 42 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | .289 | 71.6% | 4.02 | 4.11 | 0.0 |
| Luis Gil | 40 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | .276 | 71.4% | 4.40 | 4.51 | 0.0 |
| Kervin Castro | 34 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.1 | .284 | 70.3% | 4.44 | 4.41 | -0.0 |
| Cade Winquest | 30 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | .286 | 68.4% | 4.87 | 4.85 | -0.0 |
| Angel Chivilli | 26 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.3 | .294 | 71.1% | 4.47 | 4.47 | -0.0 |
| Rafael Montero | 24 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | .291 | 72.0% | 4.39 | 4.50 | -0.0 |
| Will Warren | 22 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | .291 | 71.1% | 4.25 | 4.14 | 0.0 |
| Ryan Weathers | 18 | 8.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | .285 | 71.1% | 4.16 | 4.16 | 0.0 |
| Osvaldo Bido | 16 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | .285 | 71.2% | 4.44 | 4.58 | 0.0 |
| Yovanny Cruz | 14 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | .283 | 69.4% | 5.04 | 5.14 | -0.0 |
| Clarke Schmidt | 12 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | .286 | 72.3% | 4.01 | 4.07 | 0.0 |
| Carlos Lagrange | 10 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | .282 | 71.2% | 4.34 | 4.36 | 0.0 |
| Dylan Coleman | 8 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 1.1 | .283 | 69.9% | 4.95 | 5.19 | -0.0 |
| Elmer Rodríguez | 6 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.1 | .286 | 72.2% | 4.08 | 4.17 | 0.0 |
| Total | 553 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 1.1 | .287 | 71.9% | 4.07 | 4.11 | 3.5 |
After a rough 2024, David Bednar seemed to right the ship and posted a more characteristic 2.30 ERA in 2025, including a 2.19 mark after he was traded to the Bronx. He looked great for Team USA and seems poised for another fine season thanks to his excellent three-pitch mix (fastball, splitter, curveball). Fernando Cruz has one of the best splitters in baseball, and his on-mound intensity has seemed to ratchet up since he was traded from Cincinnati to New York, especially during the stretches when the Yankees have struggled and needed someone to pull them out of a hole. Though Bednar seems likely to be the closer, Cruz is the weapon poised to be used in high-leverage spots regardless of what inning it is.
Can any other of the many relatively new faces here improve thanks to the Yankees’ aptitude for pitching dev? Camilo Doval (acquired from the Giants at last year’s deadline) is the one with the most obvious impact ceiling, as he delivers cutting upper-90s stuff from a low arm slot. He’s been too walk prone during the last two seasons to be considered elite, but from 2021-2023, it looked like he was going to be. Former Rockies Jake Bird and Angel Chivilli might benefit from departing an org that has struggled to optimize arms during the last several regimes. Rule 5 pick Cade Winquest is a plus athlete with plus breaking stuff who could be fleshed out as a starter again after this year.
In addition to Tim Hill’s lefty specialist proficiency, Ryan Yarbrough and Brent Headrick have starter and long relief pedigrees that should make either or both of them valuable bridges to the late-inning guys atop the depth chart.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raisel Iglesias | 66 | 9.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | .291 | 73.5% | 3.61 | 3.55 | 0.8 |
| Robert Suarez | 67 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | .292 | 73.6% | 3.56 | 3.55 | 0.9 |
| Dylan Lee | 65 | 10.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | .291 | 76.4% | 3.54 | 3.63 | 0.6 |
| Tyler Kinley | 63 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | .291 | 72.9% | 4.01 | 3.95 | 0.4 |
| Aaron Bummer | 60 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.7 | .308 | 73.0% | 3.57 | 3.53 | 0.4 |
| Joel Payamps | 55 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | .297 | 71.9% | 4.06 | 4.00 | 0.1 |
| Hayden Harris | 50 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | .294 | 72.2% | 4.05 | 4.04 | 0.0 |
| José Suarez | 46 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | .298 | 72.7% | 4.03 | 3.98 | 0.0 |
| Dylan Dodd | 42 | 7.6 | 2.3 | 1.2 | .297 | 73.0% | 4.00 | 4.03 | 0.0 |
| Didier Fuentes | 37 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | .292 | 70.8% | 4.39 | 4.27 | 0.0 |
| James Karinchak | 34 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | .288 | 72.7% | 4.39 | 4.45 | -0.0 |
| Hunter Stratton | 30 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | .297 | 71.8% | 4.24 | 4.27 | 0.0 |
| Daysbel Hernández | 24 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.0 | .293 | 71.9% | 4.30 | 4.32 | -0.0 |
| Rolddy Muñoz | 22 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.1 | .298 | 71.6% | 4.49 | 4.55 | -0.0 |
| Danny Young | 20 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 0.8 | .299 | 71.0% | 3.95 | 3.90 | 0.0 |
| Joe Jiménez | 18 | 10.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | .295 | 72.5% | 4.00 | 3.76 | 0.0 |
| Jhancarlos Lara | 16 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 0.9 | .297 | 72.8% | 4.11 | 4.21 | 0.0 |
| Grant Holmes | 14 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | .300 | 72.4% | 4.19 | 4.23 | -0.0 |
| Reynaldo López | 12 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | .293 | 73.4% | 3.81 | 3.78 | 0.0 |
| Ian Hamilton | 10 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 0.9 | .300 | 74.1% | 3.73 | 3.81 | 0.0 |
| AJ Smith-Shawver | 8 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | .293 | 74.0% | 3.85 | 3.76 | 0.0 |
| Bryce Elder | 6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | .301 | 69.6% | 4.43 | 4.19 | -0.0 |
| Total | 536 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | .295 | 72.9% | 3.93 | 3.92 | 3.4 |
Raisel Iglesias is entering his 12th big league season, and he’s been one of the better, more reliable relievers in baseball his entire career. Since he was permanently moved to the bullpen in 2016, Iglesias leads the majors in relief innings (612.1; Kenley Jansen is next at 587.1) and is fifth in WAR. He has been on the paternity list as many times (twice) as he has been on the IL since 2017, and he’s remained effective even as his fastball velocity has slipped a bit each of the past two years. As reliable as Iglesias is in some ways (he’s like the student with perfect attendance and good grades), he is unpredictable in others. His pitch usage changes every season (last year, he was heavy on four-seamers for the first time since 2022), and he might show you any of three different arm slots in a given inning. His career epilogue is nearing, but Iglesias is still good.
Joining him at the back of Atlanta’s bullpen is new addition Robert Suarez, who posted a 2.91 ERA in four seasons with San Diego after coming over from NPB. He pitched a career-high 69.2 innings last season at age 34 and shaved his walk rate down to an excellent 5.9%, but he did lose nearly a tick off of his average fastball velocity. He’s on a three-year, $45 million deal. Veteran Tyler Kinley, 35, also pitched a career-best 72.2 innings last year and completes the grey-muzzled Cerebrus of sliders the Braves have waiting in the seventh inning and beyond.
Dylan Lee (who held lefties to a .261 wOBA last year), Dylan Dodd, and Aaron Bummer represent Atlanta’s southpaw contingent. Lee dominates in his specialist role, but Bummer hasn’t taken off since coming over in a trade from the White Sox. It’s plausible that José Suarez, a former Angel, could benefit from the change of scenery and usurp Bummer as the second lefty. Suarez was a groundball machine for the little bit he pitched in Atlanta last year and was passed back and forth between Atlanta and Baltimore this offseason.
Top 100 prospect Didier Fuentes and his riding, upshot fastball made the team. He’ll be used as a long reliever during the first couple weeks of he season and then likely return to Triple-A, where he’ll continue to be developed as a starter.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Williams | 64 | 11.9 | 3.8 | 0.8 | .284 | 74.7% | 3.12 | 3.05 | 1.3 |
| Luke Weaver | 67 | 9.7 | 3.0 | 1.3 | .291 | 72.8% | 4.00 | 3.90 | 0.4 |
| A.J. Minter | 52 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | .286 | 75.1% | 3.42 | 3.51 | 0.5 |
| Brooks Raley | 62 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.9 | .289 | 71.5% | 3.80 | 3.83 | 0.4 |
| Luis García | 60 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 0.8 | .301 | 71.8% | 3.91 | 3.85 | 0.2 |
| Tobias Myers | 58 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | .289 | 72.3% | 4.17 | 4.25 | 0.0 |
| Huascar Brazobán | 52 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 0.9 | .292 | 72.0% | 4.08 | 4.13 | 0.0 |
| Austin Warren | 48 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | .289 | 71.2% | 4.28 | 4.35 | 0.0 |
| Richard Lovelady | 46 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | .294 | 70.6% | 4.03 | 4.01 | 0.0 |
| Adbert Alzolay | 42 | 8.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | .288 | 72.4% | 4.08 | 4.19 | 0.0 |
| Ryan Lambert | 36 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | .285 | 72.0% | 4.24 | 4.24 | 0.0 |
| Bryan Hudson | 34 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.0 | .287 | 72.4% | 4.00 | 4.11 | 0.0 |
| Sean Manaea | 30 | 9.3 | 2.8 | 1.3 | .287 | 71.2% | 4.17 | 4.10 | 0.0 |
| Dylan Ross | 27 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.1 | .286 | 73.7% | 3.96 | 4.10 | 0.0 |
| Christian Scott | 24 | 8.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | .287 | 70.5% | 4.09 | 4.02 | 0.0 |
| Jonathan Pintaro | 22 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | .291 | 72.3% | 3.97 | 4.10 | 0.0 |
| Alex Carrillo | 20 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | .285 | 71.7% | 4.30 | 4.35 | 0.0 |
| Justin Hagenman | 16 | 8.1 | 2.1 | 1.3 | .288 | 71.4% | 4.11 | 4.05 | 0.0 |
| Craig Kimbrel | 14 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.2 | .288 | 72.8% | 4.16 | 4.22 | -0.0 |
| Kodai Senga | 12 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | .286 | 74.3% | 3.87 | 4.11 | 0.0 |
| Joey Gerber | 10 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | .286 | 70.9% | 4.33 | 4.31 | -0.0 |
| Jonah Tong | 8 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | .289 | 73.9% | 3.74 | 3.69 | 0.0 |
| Total | 568 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | .289 | 72.4% | 3.94 | 3.96 | 3.2 |
If you’re old and/or nerdy enough, you’ve heard of the Miracle Mets. Well, these are the Mercenary Mets, a bullpen without a homegrown component. Ex-Yankees Devin Williams (who signed a three-year, $51 million deal this offseason) and Luke Weaver (two-years, $22 million) will have to learn new subway routes and coffee shops on their way to Queens. Williams’ “Airbender” changeup generated a 19% swinging strike rate last year, the lowest of his career since his rookie season, but still two standard deviations better than the big league average. Weaver was miscast as a starter until 2024 and has been a very good late-inning reliever for most of the last two seasons, with his strikeout skyrocketing from 19% in his final season as a starter to 27-31.5% coming out of the ‘pen. But he struggled down the stretch last year, including during a brief postseason cameo.
A.J. Minter is this bullpen’s X-factor. He pitched well when he was healthy last year despite decreased velocity, but his injuries have started to pile up. He had hip issues in 2024 and last year dealt with triceps and lat injuries, the latter of which required surgery. As of this writing, he has thrown on the backfields but not in a real spring training game. Brooks Raley missed a little more than the first half of last year recovering from Tommy John, but pitched well when he returned.
Huascar Brazobán (36) and Luis García (39) are ageless wonders who walked unique paths to middle-inning roles. Both have held plus velocity deep into their 30s. Tobias Myers will look to recapture the form he had in 2023-2024 rather than be remembered as the guy who was traded for Junior Caminero. He and Sean Manaea could provide length.
Keep an eye on former Cubs top prospect Adbert Alzolay, who once looked like a potential no. 3/4 starter but has dealt with injury.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Hoffman | 63 | 10.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | .281 | 76.1% | 3.39 | 3.59 | 1.0 |
| Yimi García | 56 | 9.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | .285 | 73.1% | 3.82 | 3.82 | 0.5 |
| Tyler Rogers | 74 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | .292 | 71.7% | 3.86 | 4.03 | 0.3 |
| Louis Varland | 67 | 8.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | .291 | 74.0% | 3.51 | 3.58 | 0.7 |
| Tommy Nance | 58 | 8.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | .299 | 73.0% | 3.78 | 3.81 | 0.3 |
| Brendon Little | 54 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 0.8 | .294 | 75.5% | 3.57 | 3.85 | 0.2 |
| Braydon Fisher | 52 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.1 | .285 | 74.4% | 3.84 | 3.96 | 0.1 |
| Eric Lauer | 48 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 1.4 | .284 | 73.6% | 4.16 | 4.36 | 0.0 |
| Mason Fluharty | 42 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | .283 | 73.9% | 3.93 | 4.12 | 0.0 |
| José Berríos | 36 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | .290 | 71.8% | 4.37 | 4.51 | -0.0 |
| Lazaro Estrada | 32 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 1.4 | .285 | 70.9% | 4.39 | 4.42 | -0.0 |
| Chase Lee | 28 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 1.2 | .289 | 73.0% | 3.88 | 3.95 | 0.0 |
| Spencer Miles | 25 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | .273 | 69.8% | 4.20 | 4.07 | 0.0 |
| Yariel Rodríguez | 23 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | .284 | 72.8% | 4.08 | 4.31 | 0.0 |
| Cody Ponce | 21 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | .294 | 71.9% | 4.05 | 3.96 | 0.0 |
| Max Scherzer | 20 | 8.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | .283 | 72.8% | 4.22 | 4.34 | 0.0 |
| Adam Macko | 18 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | .286 | 71.6% | 4.40 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| Jake Bloss | 16 | 7.5 | 3.6 | 1.4 | .287 | 72.0% | 4.54 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| Trey Yesavage | 14 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.0 | .283 | 72.8% | 3.80 | 3.79 | 0.0 |
| Shane Bieber | 12 | 8.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | .293 | 73.5% | 3.70 | 3.70 | 0.0 |
| Joe Mantiply | 11 | 7.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | .299 | 71.2% | 4.02 | 3.91 | 0.0 |
| Angel Bastardo | 10 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | .289 | 73.2% | 4.19 | 4.37 | -0.0 |
| Ricky Tiedemann | 8 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.1 | .287 | 71.1% | 4.28 | 4.40 | -0.0 |
| Total | 556 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | .288 | 73.2% | 3.89 | 4.01 | 3.2 |
Jeff Hoffman was originally a Blue Jays draft pick but was traded to Colorado (where he debuted) for Troy Tulowitzki about a year after he signed. It took nearly a decade before he truly found his footing as a late-inning reliever in Philadelphia. After signing a three-year, $33 million pact with Toronto last offseason, he was strangely homer-prone in 2025.
Yimi García has dealt with shoulder, elbow, and ankle injuries during the last two seasons and only worked 60 innings combined between 2024 and 2025. He’s pitched well when healthy but probably shouldn’t be relied upon as a whole-season contributor. That’s likely part of what motivated Toronto to give a three-year deal to Tyler Rogers, a rubber-armed submariner who has thrown at least 70 innings every year since 2021. He posted a 1.98 ERA and 2.88 FIP in a 2025 season split between the Giants and Mets.
Louis Varland, acquired from Minnesota last trade deadline, enjoyed a two-tick velo bump in 2025 and sustained it even though he worked 72.2 innings during the regular season (easily a big league career-high) and was called upon constantly during the playoffs. Former Cubs Brendon Little and Tommy Nance seemed to break through last year. Little is the nastier of the two lefties projected to break camp in the Jays bullpen (solid sophomore season southpaw Mason Fluharty is the other), while Nance, 36, is a fairly standard fastball-breaking ball reliever who has spent most of the last half decade shuttling back and forth between Triple-A and the majors.
Rule 5 pick Spencer Miles has barely pitched in affiliated pro games due to injury, but he flashes four viable pitches when healthy.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seranthony Domínguez | 63 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 1.1 | .288 | 73.8% | 3.91 | 3.98 | 0.7 |
| Jordan Leasure | 64 | 10.2 | 4.1 | 1.3 | .285 | 72.9% | 4.15 | 4.15 | 0.6 |
| Grant Taylor | 76 | 10.1 | 3.2 | 0.9 | .291 | 73.4% | 3.47 | 3.26 | 1.2 |
| Sean Newcomb | 66 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 0.9 | .296 | 72.7% | 3.89 | 3.91 | 0.5 |
| Jordan Hicks | 62 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 0.9 | .300 | 70.7% | 4.20 | 4.12 | 0.2 |
| Chris Murphy | 56 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.1 | .292 | 71.8% | 4.31 | 4.49 | 0.0 |
| Jedixson Paez | 52 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 1.3 | .293 | 70.9% | 4.41 | 4.42 | 0.0 |
| Wikelman González | 45 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | .289 | 71.4% | 4.95 | 5.12 | -0.2 |
| Tyler Gilbert | 40 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | .292 | 70.2% | 4.54 | 4.47 | 0.0 |
| Brandon Eisert | 36 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | .296 | 73.0% | 4.06 | 4.05 | 0.1 |
| Prelander Berroa | 33 | 9.3 | 5.0 | 1.2 | .292 | 72.9% | 4.50 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| Jonathan Cannon | 31 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | .292 | 69.5% | 4.79 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| Duncan Davitt | 26 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | .292 | 69.8% | 4.49 | 4.46 | 0.0 |
| Tyson Miller | 24 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | .289 | 68.5% | 5.16 | 5.07 | -0.0 |
| Shane Murphy | 21 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 1.4 | .290 | 70.7% | 4.49 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| Anthony Kay | 20 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | .300 | 71.5% | 4.40 | 4.45 | 0.0 |
| David Sandlin | 18 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | .292 | 71.8% | 4.46 | 4.54 | -0.0 |
| Tanner McDougal | 16 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | .294 | 70.4% | 4.77 | 4.80 | -0.0 |
| Lucas Sims | 14 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 1.4 | .285 | 66.8% | 5.66 | 5.63 | -0.1 |
| Tyler Schweitzer | 12 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | .293 | 70.8% | 4.63 | 4.71 | -0.0 |
| Riley Gowens | 10 | 8.3 | 3.2 | 1.4 | .290 | 71.0% | 4.52 | 4.51 | -0.0 |
| Erick Fedde | 10 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | .291 | 69.6% | 4.95 | 4.95 | -0.0 |
| Zach Franklin | 8 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.2 | .290 | 70.7% | 4.38 | 4.31 | 0.0 |
| Total | 579 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | .292 | 71.6% | 4.30 | 4.31 | 3.0 |
The White Sox nearly led baseball in bullpen innings last year (657.1 to the Dodgers’ 657.2) as their starters struggled to work deep into games. Even though the org has made strides in the realm of pitching development over the last couple of years and has acquired some interesting young talent — Jordan Leasure was a trade acquisition from the Dodgers, Jedixson Paez, Chris Murphy and Wikelman González fell off of Boston’s deep roster, Grant Taylor and Tanner McDougal are tracking as successful draft picks — I’d be surprised if they finished this high in the org rankings at the end of the season.
Seranthony Domínguez gives this group some of the big game gravitas it has recently lacked, Jordan Hicks has a historically significant right arm, and it’s incredible to see Sean Newcomb still kicking around, but if any of this group pitches very well it’s more likely that they’re traded than it is that they contribute to this group all year.
There are still several long-term pieces to monitor here as the White Sox attempt to build a contender’s bullpen. Taylor, who was going to be LSU’s Friday night starter ahead of Paul Skenes before he blew out just before his draft year, is the one most likely to be a premium closer. Leasure, who was once a highly-ranked Dodgers prospect traded for Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn, broke out last year and looks like a viable setup man. Prelander Berroa (a Fernando Rodney doppelgänger coming back from surgery), David Sandlin (another ex-Red Sox prospect), and McDougal (a top 100 prospect) are the others with overt high-leverage stuff who could all get their feet wet in these roles after the trade deadline.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | 70 | 11.7 | 2.8 | 0.8 | .288 | 76.0% | 2.85 | 2.76 | 1.9 |
| Hunter Gaddis | 61 | 8.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | .284 | 73.3% | 3.87 | 4.04 | 0.3 |
| Shawn Armstrong | 68 | 9.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | .291 | 72.8% | 3.81 | 3.84 | 0.4 |
| Erik Sabrowski | 63 | 10.7 | 5.3 | 1.1 | .287 | 74.7% | 3.94 | 4.20 | 0.2 |
| Matt Festa | 60 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | .289 | 71.8% | 4.13 | 4.18 | 0.1 |
| Tim Herrin | 56 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 0.9 | .291 | 74.1% | 3.66 | 3.88 | 0.2 |
| Connor Brogdon | 52 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | .292 | 73.8% | 4.26 | 4.37 | 0.0 |
| Peyton Pallette | 48 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | .286 | 71.4% | 4.41 | 4.54 | -0.1 |
| Colin Holderman | 42 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | .293 | 72.1% | 4.02 | 4.11 | 0.0 |
| Andrew Walters | 38 | 10.3 | 4.5 | 1.2 | .285 | 73.2% | 4.15 | 4.30 | -0.0 |
| Joey Cantillo | 33 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | .290 | 75.5% | 3.80 | 4.01 | 0.0 |
| Codi Heuer | 30 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | .295 | 73.8% | 3.87 | 4.00 | 0.0 |
| Doug Nikhazy | 25 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.3 | .289 | 72.9% | 4.44 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| Daniel Espino | 23 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.4 | .292 | 75.0% | 4.27 | 4.53 | -0.0 |
| Franco Aleman | 22 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.1 | .292 | 74.0% | 3.99 | 4.07 | 0.0 |
| Trevor Stephan | 18 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | .295 | 72.9% | 4.19 | 4.26 | -0.0 |
| Kolby Allard | 16 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | .293 | 73.4% | 4.23 | 4.43 | -0.0 |
| Austin Peterson | 14 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 1.4 | .290 | 71.2% | 4.42 | 4.54 | -0.0 |
| Pedro Avila | 12 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | .295 | 72.1% | 4.24 | 4.35 | -0.0 |
| Jake Miller | 10 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | .291 | 71.5% | 4.56 | 4.73 | -0.0 |
| Logan Allen | 8 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.2 | .294 | 73.0% | 4.30 | 4.52 | -0.0 |
| Total | 564 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | .290 | 73.5% | 3.94 | 4.06 | 3.0 |
The shadow of Emmanuel Clase’s alleged (and likely career-ending) gambling impropriety hangs over Cleveland’s bullpen, which now features Cade Smith and a host of fun former small school draftees. Smith, who was under-ranked as a prospect in large part because he was constantly hurt, had a great rookie season in 2024 and in some respects was better in 2025. His splitter and slider were much more effective bat-missers last year than when he was a rookie; opponents’ contact rates against those pitches dropped from 70-73% to 61-63% last year, giving Smith three plus-plus pitches. He’ll be one of the best relievers in baseball as long as he stays healthy.
Behind Smith are several fellows from non-traditional baseball schools. Hunter Gaddis (Georgia State) has a plus slider and changeup, but he’s currently injured. Erik Sabrowski was originally a Padre drafted out of Cloud County Community College in Kansas, and came to Cleveland via the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft. He’s K’d more than a batter per inning as a pro but has struggled with walks, though that hasn’t stopped him from posting a sterling 1.29 ERA in 42 big league innings so far. Colin Holderman (Heartland CC in Illinois), and Connor Brogdon (Lewis-Clark State) are new faces from Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, respectively, while Matt Festa (East Stroudsburg) is in his second season with the org. Holderman had a bat-missing downturn last year and became more of a groundball guy, while Brogdon hovered around replacement level for he third consecutive season. Festa’s uphill fastball still has enough life to be an above-average bat-misser despite below-average velocity.
Lefty Tim Herrin will look to bounce back from a walk-prone 2025. Shawn Armstrong was originally drafted by Cleveland in 2011 and pitched there until 2017, when he started bouncing around. He’s been a consistent strike-throwing middle-inning piece – 3.82 ERA, 24% K%, 8% BB% – for the better part of the last decade. Daniel Espino, who was once the top pitching prospect in baseball before injuries derailed his career, is healthy and looks poised to pitch in the seventh or eighth inning at some point this year.
| Name | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | BABIP | LOB% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Estévez | 62 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | .283 | 70.8% | 4.17 | 4.18 | 0.5 |
| Lucas Erceg | 64 | 8.8 | 3.5 | 0.8 | .297 | 71.9% | 3.71 | 3.67 | 0.8 |
| Matt Strahm | 66 | 9.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | .284 | 74.1% | 3.50 | 3.55 | 1.0 |
| John Schreiber | 64 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | .294 | 71.5% | 4.05 | 4.01 | 0.4 |
| Nick Mears | 60 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | .295 | 71.3% | 4.12 | 3.96 | 0.2 |
| Daniel Lynch IV | 59 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 1.2 | .296 | 71.6% | 4.30 | 4.39 | 0.0 |
| Alex Lange | 52 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 0.8 | .296 | 73.0% | 3.92 | 3.95 | 0.1 |
| Bailey Falter | 48 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.3 | .287 | 70.1% | 4.57 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| Steven Cruz | 45 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.0 | .291 | 70.8% | 4.22 | 4.17 | 0.0 |
| Luinder Avila | 42 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.0 | .296 | 70.8% | 4.27 | 4.24 | -0.0 |
| Mason Black | 40 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | .293 | 69.0% | 4.87 | 4.79 | -0.0 |
| Eli Morgan | 33 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | .288 | 70.0% | 4.57 | 4.52 | -0.0 |
| Stephen Kolek | 28 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | .300 | 69.5% | 4.25 | 4.17 | 0.0 |
| Mitch Spence | 24 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 1.2 | .299 | 70.3% | 4.32 | 4.19 | 0.0 |
| Héctor Neris | 22 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.3 | .292 | 71.9% | 4.45 | 4.50 | 0.0 |
| James McArthur | 20 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | .299 | 70.7% | 4.13 | 3.98 | 0.0 |
| Ryan Bergert | 16 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | .292 | 70.5% | 4.64 | 4.61 | -0.0 |
| Eric Cerantola | 12 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | .291 | 71.0% | 4.56 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| Kris Bubic | 10 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | .298 | 73.6% | 3.74 | 3.70 | 0.0 |
| Ben Kudrna | 8 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | .294 | 69.3% | 4.80 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| Total | 560 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | .293 | 71.3% | 4.17 | 4.15 | 2.9 |
The projection systems doesn’t know that Carlos Estévez has been sitting 89 this spring and looks kind of cooked. Lucas Erceg looks primed to usurp him for the closer job, but he’s also coming off a season in which his fastball quality (according to Stuff+) dipped, as did his strikeouts. His strikeout rate fell from 28.5% to 19.3%, but he was still able to post a 2.64 ERA. Matt Strahm was drafted by the Royals in 2012 and pitched in the bigs with them in 2016 and 2017, but he didn’t really find his footing until he was traded to San Diego. Since 2018, he is seventh among lefty relievers in WAR and third in WHIP at an incredible 1.03.
John Schreiber has been a rock-solid middle reliever – career 9.5 K/9, 3.65 ERA – for about a half decade now, but after him, Erceg and Strahm, things start to look pretty thin. Daniel Lynch IV has struggled to perform above replacement level for the last several years, and his stuff hasn’t ticked up even though his workload has been reduced. Nick Mears’ stuff has been up and down the last four years, was down a tick last season, and is down another tick so far this spring. Alex Lange and his trademark turtleneck have been injured for most of the past two seasons, and his walks were last manageable in 2022. Barring external reinforcement, it’d be surprising if this were a top 15 group at the end of the season.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Thank you Eric, very cool!
This is awesome as always, but David Bednar was traded from Pittsburgh to New York.
Unless there’s been an edit, I think that sentence is talking about Fernando Cruz being traded from Cincinnati to New York.
“The White Sox nearly led baseball in bullpen innings last year…I’d be surprised if they finished this high in the org rankings at the end of the season.”
Presumably the innings covered are a way to technically creep up the leaderboard. Last year they were 12th in fWAR despite being 19th in FIP.
Garrett Whitlock did not “at times look[] on tilt when deployed in big spots for Team USA during this year’s WBC.” He pitched perfect innings in white-knuckle wins against canada and the dr, and then hung one changeup to eugenio suarez in his third outing in five days – when he never should have been pitching – against vz. The USA does not limp into the championship without whitlock being completely unfazed by the stage. Respectfully, bad analysis.
In support:
Claims that you need to be exceptionally good under pressure to close out MLB games strike me as universally nonsense. If a guy makes it to the major leagues as a pitcher, he has pitched, and pitched well, in plenty of high pressure situations to get there.
The fact that he’s even in the conversation means that he doesn’t fold under pressure. Whitlock can close, because he’s a good relief pitcher, and AFAICT any good MLB pitcher can close.
If that’s not the case, name the ace setup guy with a sub 3.0 career ERA as a setup guy over a reasonable sample size who has completely failed as a closer when tried there? AFAIK, he doesn’t exist and has never existed, because there’s nothing magic about closing.
The shelf life of closers and relievers in general seems like it would be pretty difficult to ever find anyone that received a sufficient amount of closer innings if he kept botching it. You could just handwave away the closer innings as insufficient sample size regardless of whether that’s actually true because in every individual case handwaving if away would probably be reasonable and the smart thing to do. However, I think it would be pretty surprising if in the universe of a large sample of great relievers in the history of baseball there aren’t at least a few who performed worse in higher leverage situations due to nerves.
IE Yimi Garcia has a career 3.0 ERA in non save situations (284 IP) and a 4.82 ERA in save situations (132 IP). You can’t look at that and say he is incapable of closing due to choking but idk how you could rule it out entirely.
Hunter Strickland has 350 IP of a 2.83 ERA in non save situations and a 5.02 ERA in 120 innings of save situations! I mean what more would you want to see as proof
Quite a bit more evidence!
We know relivers are inherently volitile (even more so than other players), and surface level ERA, even over 120 – 140 IP can be very noisy.
Also, over a large data set, we would expect there to be some outliers. E.g. if one team beats their projection by 10 wins, that isn’t surprising. It might be surprising if it keeps on being the Brewers.
Yes I agree that doesn’t actually show Strickland is incapable of closing I just mean I don’t think there is realistically any chance of getting more than 100+ innings of closing innings with a >5.0 ERA. They aren’t gonna get a chance to close once they fail for that long. I just don’t think lack of guys who pitched 300 innings of >5.0 ERA in save situations and 300+ innings of <3.0 ERA in non save situations is conclusive proof that all good relievers are capable of closing. I also realize this isn’t even apples to apples necesssrily with save and non save not completely the same as closer and non closer innings but it was best I could come up with
I’d find it less surprising that it keeps on being the Brewers, other than they seem to be doing it seemingly different ways.
The White Sox should be practicing ABTR at every opportunity but Leasure isn’t going to be arbitration eligible until 2027 so it would take a lot to get him if he pitches well.
They might still view Taylor as a starter and are just slow rolling him as he recovers from the shoulder injury that ended his college career after 52 IP. He didn’t throw at all in 2023, had 19.1 IP in 2024 and 53.1 last year. Even if he is going to be a reliever for the rest of his career, he isn’t arb eligible till 2029 and he is only 23. He isn’t going anywhere.
I love that ABTR is now well-established enough that we don’t think to define it.
Sadly, it’s not TINSTAAPP or TOOTBLAN, and probably won’t be unless the talking heads on ESPN to go for it.
There’d be no reason for him to throw 100 innings on a bad team if they weren’t stretching him out to start next year. Venables has also all but said it during interviews.
Unless something goes wrong, Taylor, like Sale and Crochet before him, is going to be in the 2027 White Sox rotation.
They said today that the plan is for him to be a starter in 2027, and work up to 100ip this year. I mean it def worked w Crochet!
Is it just me, or is the WAR model a bad way to evaluate relievers? Almost every teams 6th-25th reliever all have projected fWAR somewhere between 0.0 and -0.0. WAR doesn’t feel like as useful a tool here as it does in every other situation.
Most teams 6th-25th relievers hovering around replacement level makes pretty logical sense. I would agree that simply presenting a list of summed up projections doesn’t offer much evaluation capacity, but by showing the 25 relievers making up the summed up WAR projection you see that the best teams have one, two, or three guys driving the entire projection. Then you add in the written analysis talking about bullpen depth and I think it’s a defensible methodology for ranking bullpens.
Crucially, relievers have some of the highest variance season over season in terms of usage and effectiveness so focusing on depth and top end talent is the key.
It’s not that the WAR that’s the problem here, it’s that relievers are mostly guys who throw hard or have a ton of deception but who also have mechanics that make it hard for them to start. Many of them alternate between being dominant and erratic.
That’s hard enough to predict already when a guy can go from being a lights out reliever in one year to a guy who can’t hit the strike zone the next year. But you’re also trying to predict it over smaller samples than for a starter.
Three of top five relievers in fWAR across 2023 and 2024 were Tanner Scott, Jeff Hoffman. and Ryan Helsley. They combined for something like 11.8 fWAR across those two years. Last year they put up 0.0, 0.2, and -0.4 fWAR.
There were 28 relievers in 2024 who had at least 40 innings pitched and had a negative fWAR. Just by looking at the list, I can identify five of them who also put up more than 1 fWAR last year after putting up a negative number in 2024: David Bednar, Brad Keller, Brendon Little, Tyler Alexander, and Jacob Latz. There may be others too, although there might have been a few other relievers who I missed in the total number of relievers with at least 40 innings pitched.
Every assumption underpinning the WAR model runs completely antithetical to the value relievers provide…but using it as a rough approximation of true talent for power rankings is actually entirely valid.
Maybe. But the real reason why relievers are more valuable is that the top 3 to 5 relievers on a team pitch twice as much in the playoffs as they do in the regular season. Which is a different, season-altering level of leverage than what you get with a regular season game.
I think you’re underrating the difference in importance between the first two outs and the last three, in a 1.2 inning playoff appearance.
One thing about reliever war vs reality is leverage though. The high leverage guys will have a much greater impact on game outcomes than the rest. Should we analyze team bullpens by weighting the stars more heavily, I wonder?
I actually don’t put much truck in leverage, per se:
Entering with the bases loaded and getting a GIDP is an incredibly valuable result, regardless of where it happens in the game.
In fact, focusing on leverage can lead to adverse outcomes when you “save” your best relievers for a later point that never comes.
RE24, now…
Yeah I don’t buy the “RE24 good, WPA bad” thing. I do think leverage matters.
Why do you think a run scored in the 5th matters less than one scored in the 8th, in a 2-1 game?
I’ll answer your question if you answer mine. Why do you think a run scored in a 10-0 game matters the same amount as one scored in a 2-1 game?
The answer to your question is pretty simple. When a team takes a 2-1 lead in the fifth inning, it doesn’t mean as much because you just know you’ll see a lot more baseball and it could go either way. When a team takes a 2-1 lead in the eighth that’s a more significant margin given the opportunities remaining in the game. Managers will tend to use their best relievers in later situations (late and close) for that reason.
I think “close” is more important than “late”. But they do both matter. And if you discount leverage entirely, you’re discounting both factors.
Now that I’ve written this entirely pointless thing I just want to say my original point more clearly: because a manager can select when guys enter the game, the top few relievers on the team will be used in more impactful situations. So the value of a bullpen is tied more closely to them, in a way not explained fully by IP.
I completely agree with this.
I just also think that holding your “top few guys” for late game situations when the bases are loaded in the bottom of the 5th in a 0-0 game is pretty much always a mistake, no matter what WPA says.
…plus it’s very convenient that RE24 operates as a 1:1 replacement for RAA!
Situation:
Bases Loaded, One Out
Result:
Reliever A: 2B, K, K
Reliever B: GIDP
rWAR:
Reliever A=Reliever B
fWAR:
Reliever A>Reliever B
All that said, this is the only application in which Reliever WAR is useful.
Thank you for stating this as it seems the relief pitcher WAR was heavily dependent on two factors: K% and saves. That is a valuable set of skills no doubt but should it count toward 95% of what goes into the WAR result ?
Can we do an experiment. Two identical pitchers in innings, K%, BB% BA, SLG, etc all the same. One pitches in the 7th innings and gets no saves and the other in the 9th inning and gets 38 saves that year. Whose WAR is larger ? According to the model used by Fangraphs the 9th inning closer by far. However is WAR really a measure of that pitchers effectiveness ?
Almost like saying the MVP should be for the hitter with the most RBIs or the Cy Young to the pitcher with the most wins.
“Leverage adjustments” are silly as well – if a fireman enters with one out in the 5th to get out of a jam, the runs prevented aren’t any less valuable.
Setting aside whether I personally believe they belong in the Hall or not….Hall of Fame discussions I’m really not looking forward to having for multiple years in the approaching future:
At least Salvy isn’t a bad guy, haha!
He certainly doesn’t have a Curtis Granderson level case, though.
At least Chapman’s still got a ways to go towards the Joe Nathan line, in terms of RE24 – sandwiched between K-Rod and Foulke at the moment.
I am very much opposed to the idea of “Salvador Perez, Hall of Famer” but I would be surprised if anyone has ever said anything bad about him as a person. Based on everything I have heard he seems like the kind of guy who leaves large tips for his servers.
After watching the Dodgers refuse to use any relievers in high leverage during the playoffs, I have a hard time believing they’ll have the 3rd best bullpen in baseball, even with Díaz on board.
That’s almost definitely because their bullpen was so suspect. It’ll be better now.
I know it is only 14 projected innings but as a Mets I really don’t want to see Kimbrel pitch that many innings for my team this year.
The ERA projections for that Jays pen seem optimistic!
Very surprised to not see the Tigers in the top 15 (I peeked, they’re at 18). Finnegan, Jansen and Vest all had 22 or more saves last season, Yes, Jansen is getting old, but he was getting old last season and saved 29 out of 30. Hall of Famers last longer than mere mortals. They seem to have the 7th through 9th inning covered very well, and some decent arms for the middle.
Also surprised to see the Guardians so low. They always have a good pen, and had a good one last season even after Clase’s departure. Cade Smith is a stud (third highest reliever by projected WAR), Gaddis has been one of the best setup guys in baseball, and they have a bunch of arms who strike out a batter an inning. Vogt wasn’t manager of the year twice running for nothing.