A Choose-Your-Own-Adventure Game: Pick Your Padres Core

Congratulations on your brand-new time machine! Don’t press any buttons just yet. There’s a reason you’ve been given this time machine.

See, A.J. Preller’s done some things, and they’ve been fascinating. Fascinating because, since he took over as general manager of the San Diego Padres nearly two years ago to the day, he’s been like the Two-Face of GMs, just the handsome and less-deformed and evil version. OK, maybe it wasn’t a great analogy.

But there have seemingly been two Prellers! And they’ve each been fascinating in their own right. Preller 1.0 wanted to put a stamp on his new club, wanted to contend right away, and made a flurry of trades in an attempt to do so that now seems ill-advised. Plenty of young, intriguing, cheap talent went out, and plenty of once-enticing-but-not-so-much-anymore, ill-fitting, expensive veteran talent came in. Things didn’t go well, the Padres were bad, and Preller soon reversed course. That first season looked like a disaster, and if the egg wasn’t already directly on Preller’s face, it was at least cooking in the pan.

Since then, Preller’s done a 180. Plenty of that older talent that meant nothing to the Padres’ future has gone back out, and plenty of new, again-intriguing young faces have been brought in. Just as the majority of Preller’s first-wave moves were seen at the time as questionable, the majority of his recent moves have been regarded well. The Craig Kimbrel return was seen as a positive for San Diego. Folks were surprised at what Preller received for Fernando Rodney. Anderson Espinoza is now a Padre. Which brings us to the present. The Padres farm system is starting to look real interesting again. However far back Preller set the Padres with the first year’s moves, he’s been doing his damnedest to make it up.

And so here’s what’s got me interested: you’ve got a time machine, and your goal is long-term success with the Padres. You can erase all of Preller’s moves, pretend he was never even hired, and start over again with the 2014-15 future core players and build from there. Or, alternatively, you can take the ones they’ve got now.

I’ve collected 20 or so of the more valuable, young-ish, controllable commodities that existed in the Padres organization before Preller and who are now in different organizations because of Preller trades. I’ve done the same for 20 or so of the more valuable, young-ish, controllable commodities that currently exist within the Padres organization because of Preller trades. The ages listed for the first group are the ages for the 2015 season, because that’s when you’d be starting with that core. I chose not to include Preller draft picks (aside from the 2016 compensation pick that was the direct result of a Preller trade) and international signings, because other GMs would have had similar draft picks and international slot bonuses. This is just about Preller, the tradesmen.

The one thing to remember is, when considering the 2014-15 version, you’ve got to forget the things that’ve happened since then. You don’t know how Joe Ross or Matt Wisler are going to look in their first 30-some major-league starts. You don’t know that Yasmani Grandal’s injury problems are going to get worse in Los Angeles. It’ll be tough to go back and think within the context of the time for the first group, but I trust you.

Notable Pre-Preller Assets

Draft picks

2015 No. 41 draft pick (became Austin Riley)

Major league assets

C Yasmani Grandal, 26, arb eligible 2017, FA eligible 2019
1B Yonder Alonso, 28, arb eligible 2017, FA eligible 2018
2B Jedd Gyorko, 26, five years, $34M (+$13M 2020 team option)
OF Cameron Maybin, 28, two years, $15M (+$9M 2017 team option)

Top-100 prospects

RHP Matt Wisler, 22, (2015 BA #34 prospect)
SS Trea Turner, 22, (2015 BA #65 prospect)
RHP Joe Ross, 22, (2015 BA #96 prospect)
LHP Max Fried, 21, (2014 BA #53 prospect, 2015 BA N/A)

Non-100 prospects, pre-debut

RHP Zach Eflin, 21
CF Mallex Smith, 22
1B Jake Bauers, 19
3B Dustin Peterson, 20

Non-100 prospects, post-debut, pre-arb

RHP Jesse Hahn, 25
2B Jace Peterson, 25
RHP Odrisamer Despaigne, 28
OF Rymer Liriano, 24
OF Reymond Fuentes, 24
RHP Joe Wieland, 25
RHP Burch Smith, 25
RHP Johnny Barbato, 22
RHP R.J. Alvarez, 24

Notable Post-Preller Assets

Draft picks

2016 No. 24 draft pick (Justin Upton comp pick, became Hudson Sanchez)

Major league assets

1B/OF Wil Myers, 25, arb eligible 2017, FA eligible 2020
RHP Brandon Maurer, 25, arb eligible 2017, FA eligible 2020
C Derek Norris, 27, arb eligible 2017, FA eligible 2019
C Christian Bethancourt, 24, arb eligible 2018, FA eligible 2020
OF Melvin Upton, 31, one year, $16.4M

Top-100 prospects

RHP Anderson Espinoza, 19, (BA 2016 #19 prospect)
SS Javier Guerra, 20, (BA 2016 #52 prospect)
OF Manuel Margot, 21, (BA 2016 #56 prospect)

Non-100 prospects, pre-debut

RHP Chris Paddack, 20
INF Fernando Tatis, Jr., 17
RHP Jose Torres, 22
2B Carlos Asuaje, 24
LHP Logan Allen, 19
RHP Enyel De Los Santos, 20
RHP Jean Cosme, 20

Non-100 prospects, post-debut, pre-arb

2B Jose Pirela, 26
OF Jabari Blash, 26
RHP Luis Perdomo, 23
RHP Erik Johnson, 26

Sunk costs

$20 million owed to James Shields, 2017-18
OF Matt Kemp, 31, three years, $64.5M

Now, those last two entries tucked in at the end there are important, because they’re the only two entries in either list that aren’t assets, but rather hinderences. Kemp’s still owed another $64 million, and that’s gonna be tough to get rid of, and the Padres are saddled with the Shields money no matter what. I wasn’t sure where to include Melvin Upton and his money, because honestly I still can’t figure out whether he’s now back to being an asset at that price or if he’s still a sunk cost, but the point is, if you pick group two, remember that you’ve got some added financial restrictions on your plate.

The rest is the same. Core guys like Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner or prospects like Austin Hedges and Hunter Renfroe that predate Preller’s arrival remain on either squad. The only real differences are listed above. Both groups have some MLB-caliber players with several years of control remaining. Both groups have several recent Baseball America top-100 prospects. Both groups have some other interesting, non-BA top-100 types, as well as some older intriguing, yet flawed, high-minors prospects. Group two has some financial burden. The question is: have the Padres improved their standing?

Now, pick your Padres.