Aaron Sanchez Will Try to Save the Blue Jays’ Season

A year ago, mentioning Aaron Sanchez and “save” in the same sentence might have been regarded as a commentary on the right hander’s potential future in the closer role. After excelling in the bullpen at the end of 2014, Sanchez moved to the rotation in 2015 and put up a 5.21 FIP in 11 starts, before finding himself back in the bullpen, where he was once again quite good. In 2016, the Toronto Blue Jays again put Sanchez in the rotation, unwilling to give up on a 24-year-old potential ace. Sanchez proved doubters, like myself, wrong and rewarded the Blue Jays with that confidence. Now he’s being asked to keep the Blue Jays’ season alive against former Cy Young Award winner Corey Kluber.

Sanchez’s stuff jumps out. Half the time, he throws a sinker that averages 95 mph. He complements that pitch with a similarly fast four-seamer. Between the two, Sanchez brings mid- to high-90s heat on three-quarters of all his pitches. That velocity and that usage is perhaps what caused some concern about lasting as a starter. Only Bartolo Colon threw a higher percentage of fastballs this season among qualified starters. Since 2011, only Colon, Justin Masterson, Lance Lynn, and Ross Detwiler have navigated a full season of starting while also using their fastballs with such frequency. To throw a fastball that often, it has to be good — and Sanchez’s is very good.

As Jeff Sullivan detailed in June, the biggest difference for Sanchez from 2015 to 2016 has simply been ability to throw strikes. Sanchez also exhibited an increased comfort with changeup to make himself more viable against left-handers, but the command was the big difference. He threw more pitches in the zone — and particularly down in the zone. The result? An increase in strikeouts, a massive decrease in walks, and a number of relatively harmless balls in play on the ground. The Blue Jays defense did the rest, gobbling up most of the ground balls and letting Kevin Pillar nab whatever went beyond the infield. While Sanchez’s defense certainly helped, he would have had a very good year regardless of who was behind him.

We might look at a 20% strikeout rate (which now counts as just below league average), an 8% walk rate (which is almost precisely league average), and a 0.72 HR/9 and conclude that Sanchez isn’t that impressive, that he just got a bit lucky that fly balls stayed in the yard. That would be a poor conclusion to draw. Sanchez’s reliance on the sinker doesn’t lead to as many missed bats, that’s true. Instead, he relies on inducing contact — but a sort of contact that isn’t likely to produce much damage. Sanchez’s home-run rate on fly balls (HR/FB%) of 10.7% isn’t that different from the league average. Among qualified starters, it places him in the top quarter. The key for Sanchez isn’t limiting home runs, though, it’s limiting fly balls. Only Marcus Stroman, Dallas Keuchel and Jaime Garcia recorded a lower fly-ball percentage than the 25% mark Sanchez put up this season. Combine that with a 36% pull rate that was seventh in baseball, and the result is a profile that makes it difficult for hitters to get the ball out of the yard, even in Toronto.

If you look at the 3.55 FIP and still aren’t impressed, this is your gentle reminder that the run-scoring environment in baseball changed this year and that Sanchez pitches both (a) in a difficult league and (b) at a homer-friendly ballpark. That 3.55 FIP was 14th in baseball, the 82 FIP- was 13th, and no American League pitcher recorded a better FIP- while also beating Sanchez’s 70 ERA- this season. With concerns about innings limits, Sanchez had a phantom stint in the minors to skip a start in late August. On his return, he closed the season well, producing quality starts in five of six outings. Remove a poor start against Boston, and he put up stats right in line with the rest of his season. His first playoff start did not go as smoothly.

Against the Texas Rangers in the first round, Sanchez lasted 5.2 innings and compiled five strikeouts, but those strikeouts came with four walks and two home runs. On one of those home runs, it is difficult to say that Sanchez did anything wrong. On an 0-1 count, Sanchez threw a 97-mph fastball low and inside to Elvis Andrus. I mentioned above that Sanchez’s sinker is really good. As late as the end of August, right-handers had pulled the ball in the air just three times against Sanchez’s sinker. Prior to that pitch from Sanchez, meanwhile, Andrus had seen 761 pitches in that location and swung 243 times, per Brooks Baseball. Of those 243 swings, he made contact 170 times and put the ball in play 86 times. He never homered. So of course, Andrus went after that pitch — maybe didn’t completely pull it, but close — and then hit it out.

That’s the anomaly. On Rougned Odor’s homer in that same game, also on an 0-1 count, the responsibility falls a bit more squarely on Sanchez, who left a sinker up and out over the plate. Odor crushed it to center. As Jeff Sullivan noted in the piece linked above, keeping a sinker down in the zone is important. When a pitcher gives up four walks and two home runs, command is clearly an issue. As a proxy for command, one can examine how many first-pitch strikes a pitcher recorded, to see how quickly at-bats got away. Here’s Sanchez’s strike percentage by pitch in his last game, per Brooks Baseball.

Sanchez actually didn’t have a problem getting first-pitch strikes. Putting the second pitch in the zone was the issue. Of those nine strikes on the second pitch of an at-bat, two were homers. So what does this mean? Probably not a whole lot. Sanchez might have been a bit too fine. On 13 different 0-1 counts, Sanchez threw something other than his sinker eight times and received just two strikes; of the five sinkers, he gave up two home runs. Let’s try and not read too much into this. It is possible that Sanchez struggled in his start against the Rangers because he didn’t execute well on the second pitch of plate appearances. However, even if that is the reason for his struggles, there is little reason to believe that should carry over into his next start.

Sanchez needs to keep being aggressive, keep throwing down in the zone, and he needs to let his defense do most of the work. The velocity and movement are all still there, and Sanchez didn’t show any signs of wearing down at the end of the season despite increased innings. Expect the same Aaron Sanchez we’ve seen all season to show up today, and if the Blue Jays’ regular season offense shows up, the Blue Jays will live to play another day.