Alex Bregman Didn’t Miss Clayton Kershaw’s One Mistake

This World Series has been dubbed a clash of analytical titans. Whatever the outcome, it would appear already to be a victory for the movement and an argument for greater investment in decision-science departments.

The Dodgers have one of the largest research departments in the game — perhaps the largest, though there isn’t a publicly available database for full accounting. The Astros have also benefited greatly from analytics, as we know. It’s possible that the two organizations have distanced themselves from much of the pack in a sport where every team has some sort of investment in statistically based R&D.

Nor is this development lost on the players. Consider left-hander Tony Watson’s comments from a recent piece by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register.

“Just the sheer numbers as far as the bodies, the staff that is analytically-driven,” says Dodgers reliever Tony Watson who spent 6-1/2 seasons with the analytically-open Pittsburgh Pirates before joining the Dodgers this summer. “Then I later found out it’s the largest R & D in baseball. … Coming from Pittsburgh, it’s definitely bigger. That’s the focus. And it works. The numbers don’t lie.”

The Pirates have made a sizable investment in their analytics department. According to Watson, however, it’s overshadowed by the group assembled by Los Angeles. Once a tool for low-revenue teams, it’s become another area where large-market clubs can outspend and outinvest their opponents. It’s a troubling development for the league’s minnows: the richest teams are now also the smartest.

I bring all this up to establish that, if any club is capable of idenitfying the weaknesses and strengths of an opponent, it’s the Dodgers. They know what all the Astros do well and what they don’t.

And as excellent as Clayton Kershaw was Tuesday night, a performance that begins to erase the narrative that he’s incapable of performing in the postseason, he made one mistake that played right into Bregman’s hot zone.

He tried to place a fastball in against Alex Bregman, but the three-time NL Cy Young Award winner didn’t get the pitch inside enough. Rather, he left it up and only slightly in. Bregman crushes pitches in that location.

Conventional wisdom dictates that a pitcher must exhibit command to each side of the plate, this forcing opponents to think about covering the entire east-west expanse of the strike zone. But if you’re going to miss inside against Bregman, you have to really miss inside. You nearly need to hit the former No. 2 overall pick out of LSU.

In a way that most others can’t, Bregman is able to draw his arms in, pin his back elbow against his body, and still drive an elevated-and-slightly-in fastball. While Bregman has adopted a new swing plane and approach, he’s always had fast hands and a smaller frame with shorter arms.

Here’s another look:

Alex Bregan HR. 94 mph. pic.twitter.com/4jheE0dNAy

— Craig Hyatt (@HyattCraig) October 25, 2017

Last night isn’t the only occasion on which Bregman has demonstrated this skill. Here’s another example of Bregman getting his arms in and letting his ultra-fast hands pull an up-and-in pitch with authority.

Of all players to have recorded 50 batted-ball events this season against fastballs in those locations on the inner edge and in and off the plate this season, Bregman ranked sixth out of 71 hitters with a .462 wOBA mark.

Here’s Bregman’s slugging per pitch against all pitches in 2017:

His slugging per pitch against all fastballs in 2017:

And his slugging per pitch against all fastballs from lefties in 2017:

The Astros have collected at least two notable short-armed, right-handed offensive stars: both Bregman (who’s beginning to assert himself, recording a 141 wRC+ in the second half and three postseason home runs) and AL MVP contender Jose Altuve, who ranks 37th on wOBA on inside fastballs (.363).

While the game has more and more become a big man’s game, perhaps there’s a trait — short arms and ultra-quick hands — that’s becoming more desirable in this game of extreme velocity.

After all, Bregman (.497 wOBA) and Altuve (.460) should have shorter paths to inside velocity. And the data support the idea: the pair rank 19th and 25th, respectively, against inside fastballs of 94 mph or faster that were put in play this season.

The Dodgers don’t need any more help, of course. They’re already aware of Bregman’s hot zones. When sequencing, however, they might want to stay away from that area or really move Houston’s third baseman off the plate.

With home field, a deep roster, a Game 1 victory, and a bullpen advantage, the Dodgers look like considerable favorites entering Game 2.

But here’s the hope, at least a hope, for the Astros: the Dodgers might ultimately start three left-handed pitchers in the series — Rich Hill (tonight), Kershaw, and perhaps Alex Wood. In Carlos Correa (189 wRC+), George Springer (165), Altuve (164) and Bregman (160), the Astros have four of the 21 major-league hitters who posted a wRC+ of 160 or greater against left-handed pitching this season.

The Astros have an uphill climb, but they might have the modern era’s best lineup, with Bregman as its newest star.