As the Trade Deadline Approaches, This Clearly Isn’t the Blue Jays’ Year

The Blue Jays came agonizingly close to winning the World Series last fall, but this season has been a much different story. They haven’t had a winning record since April 4, and haven’t played above .500 in any full month besides May (15-14). While they clawed their way back to .500 on May 29 (29-29) and June 22 (39-39), an 11-20 skid since then has buried them in the AL East cellar, 14 games behind the Rays. Ten American League teams either occupy a playoff spot or are within 2.5 games of one at this writing, but the Blue Jays aren’t one of them; they’re 5.5 games out of the third Wild Card spot, with playoff odds around 7%. As the August 3 trade deadline approaches, several of their players could be on the move to contenders and are worth a closer look.

So little has gone right for Toronto this year. Last season, the team had four regulars with a wRC+ of 116 or higher in George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Alejandro Kirk, each of whom topped 3.0 WAR, as did defensive whiz Ernie Clement. Four part-timers (Joey Loperfido, Davis Schneider, Daulton Varsho, and Tyler Heineman) also met that offensive threshold. But Bichette, Heineman, and Loperfido are now elsewhere, and the rest have been far less productive. No Blue Jay with more than 25 plate appearances has a wRC+ higher than newcomer Kazuma Okamoto’s 113, while Guerrero, Kirk, Schneider, and Varsho are all below 100. Vladito even landed on my Replacement-Level Killers list, which isn’t great news for a player whose contract runs through 2039. Okamoto is the only Blue Jays position player on pace for 3.0 WAR. Ouch.

In 2025, the Blue Jays’ offense ranked second in the AL in scoring and WAR, and third in wRC+, but this year, the team has fallen to second-to-last in scoring and WAR, and last in wRC+:

By comparison, Toronto’s run prevention has been nothing to write home about, whether we’re considering last year (4.45 runs per game, 10th in the league) or this year (4.50 runs per game, ninth). It’s easy to forget that the club’s near-miss happened despite a makeshift October rotation that included just one of the three pitchers who took at least 18 starts for the team (Kevin Gausman) and featured a rookie with three regular-season starts (Trey Yesavage), a deadline acquisition who had just returned from Tommy John surgery (Shane Bieber), and a 40-year-old veteran who missed the first three months of the season with right thumb inflammation (Max Scherzer).

Thus it was logical for the Blue Jays to go big in free agency by signing Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million deal, with smaller deals for KBO returnee Cody Ponce (three years, $30 million), reliever Tyler Rogers (three years, $37 million), and Scherzer, whom they brought back on the cheap with a one-year, $3 million base salary plus a $1 million bonus for reaching 65 innings, and then $1 million for every additional 10-inning increment up to 155. On the position player side, their big move was adding Okamoto on a four-year, $60 million deal, plus a $10.875 million posting fee for the Yomiuri Giants.

The first year of Cease’s deal has gone quite well. He leads the AL in FIP (2.32) and strikeout rate (36.5%), ranks second in WAR (4.1), and is third in ERA (2.46, more than two runs below last year’s mark). If not for a 15-day injury list stint, he might be the favorite to win the AL Cy Young, but the Yankees’ Cam Schlittler has a lower ERA (2.04) in more innings (136.2 to Cease’s 113.1) and a higher WAR (4.5). Yesavage has put together a solid rookie season despite missing the first month due to a shoulder impingement, but not much else has gone right in the rotation.

Looking more closely at the other starters in light of their potential trade value, most of them don’t have much. Bieber’s season debut was delayed until June 23 due to a stress fracture in his elbow, and he has not pitched well since returning, posting a 5.74 ERA and 6.33 FIP in seven starts totaling just 31.1 innings. He didn’t even make it out of the first inning on Tuesday night against the Nationals, walking six (!) of the nine batters he faced and allowing four runs. For as bad as Bieber’s been, Scherzer has been even worse; limited to seven starts by forearm tendinitis, left ankle inflammation, and back spasms, the 42-year-old future Hall of Famer has a 9.49 ERA and 8.22 FIP in 24.2 innings. Patrick Corbin, whom the team signed for $1 million in April, just landed on the injured list due to a teres major strain; he has a 5.51 ERA and 4.65 FIP in 80 innings. Ponce tore his his right ACL in his first stateside start since 2021, and José Berríos, who did not pitch in the postseason last year after fading in the second half, has missed the entire season due to a stress fracture in his elbow.

Even by the standards of pending free agents, Bieber, Corbin, and Scherzer don’t figure to generate much interest given their recent performance and physical question marks, but Gausman should have a handful of suitors. The 35-year-old righty has not pitched as badly as his 4-10 won-loss record suggests; while his 4.51 ERA is his highest since 2019, his 3.58 FIP is about halfway between his 2024 and ’25 marks. Both his 23.9% strikeout rate and 6.8% walk rate are in line with what he put up last year, and while his 1.11 homers per nine is his highest mark since 2020 (or 2019, if you prefer full-season measures), it’s still better than the major league average (1.17 per nine). His 3.94 xERA is in the ballpark of his recent numbers as well. While he’s not pitching like a Game 1 starter, he remains a credible postseason rotation option.

Gausman is making $23 million in the final season of a five-year, $110 million contract, with a limited no-trade clause that allows him to block deals to eight teams. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the list includes the Athletics, Brewers, Mariners, Mets, Pirates, Reds, Tigers, and White Sox, some of whom are in a similar boat to the Blue Jays. Most contenders could use a starter, but of the ones not listed there, the Cubs particularly stand out given how hard they’ve been hit by injuries. Not only are Ben Brown and Edward Cabrera currently sidelined, but they’ve lost Cade Horton to Tommy John surgery, and Justin Steele has run out of time to ramp up to a full starter load in his return from April 2025 Tommy John surgery. MLB Trade Rumors additionally suggested the Braves, Diamondbacks, Padres, Phillies, and Rays as potential fits for Gausman. The White Sox, whom he may have included on his list due to their 2024–25 futility, might merit a reevaluation if the opportunity for a trade is there.

Of the Blue Jays’ relievers, lights-out closer Louis Varland is only heading into his first year of arbitration eligibility this winter, and Rogers is a longer-term commitment, as he has a vesting option (which will convert into a club option if conditions aren’t met) after 2028. Jeff Hoffman, whom Varland displaced as closer in April, may be a trade target. He’s under contract through the end of next season at $11 million per year plus $500,000 bonuses for reaching 60, 70, 80, and 90 innings. A .394 BABIP helps to account for the gap between his 4.11 ERA and 2.54 FIP; notably, he’s running a career-best 34.8% strikeout rate. If the Blue Jays are willing to absorb some of his salary, they should be able to trade him.

On the offensive side, both Springer and Varsho are pending free agents who could appeal to contenders. After clubbing 32 homers and setting a career high with a 166 wRC+ (.309/.399/.560) in his age-35 season last year, Springer has slipped to a 104 wRC+ (.234/.315/.403). He was banged up early in the season, fracturing his left big toe by fouling a ball off it on April 12. That cost him 15 games, and shortly after returning, he was hit in the left foot by a pitch, costing him a couple more. He’s finally trending upwards thanks to a red-hot July, raising his wRC+ from a 93 (where it was when the Blue Jays landed on my Replacement-Level Killers list right after the All-Star break) by hitting .288/.354/.525 (146 wRC+) with just a 12.3% strikeout rate. Even so, Springer’s average exit velocity of 88.6 mph is down 1.3 mph from last year, and his 7.8% barrel rate is a hair below half of last year’s mark; his xSLG has plummeted from .571 to .387 overall, though it’s up to .483 in July.

Springer is making $22.5 million this year, the final season of a six-year, $150 million deal, and he’s got 10-and-5 rights that allow him to block any trade. The Blue Jays were one of nine teams to land on my Replacement-Level Killers DH list, along with the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Padres, Pirates, Red Sox, and Tigers. While he’s only played one game in the outfield this season, the Yankees are reportedly interested given the recent loss of Cody Bellinger to a Grade 2 hamstring strain on top of the previous injuries to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Don’t hold your breath waiting for that particular move to happen, however, as the Yankees and Blue Jays haven’t connected on anything more substantial than a cash considerations deal since July 26, 2018, when Toronto sent J.A. Happ to New York for Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney. Elsewhere within the division, the Blue Jays and Red Sox hooked up on July 27, 2024 in a deal for Danny Jansen, but before that, you have to dial back to June 28, 2018, when Steve Pearce went to Boston in exchange for Santiago Espinal. Still, if Springer wants to move to a contender, it’s a realistic possibility.

Varsho’s 93 wRC+ (.247/.308/.383) represents a 30-point drop from last season, albeit in a larger sample size. He’s not hitting the ball as hard as in 2025 — his average exit velocity has dropped from a career-high 89.9 mph to 86.2, with his barrel rate dipping from 15.9% to 6.6% — but he’s been much healthier, with only a 10-game stint for left wrist inflammation instead of one month for his recovery from right shoulder surgery plus another two months for a left hamstring strain. The 30-year-old flychaser’s calling card remains his defense, though his center field metrics are merely average-ish (0 DRS, 3 FV) instead of elite. The Astros, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Orioles, and Tigers all landed on my Killers list for center fielders, and both the Phillies and Marlins would be on it now if I redid the exercise today. He’s making $10.75 million this season, and it’s not out of the question that the Blue Jays would retain him and tender him a qualifying offer, but if they want to move him, some contender will certainly take them up on it.

Two other Blue Jays outfielders who could move are Jesús Sánchez, a lefty-swinging 28-year-old acquired from the Astros in exchange for Loperfido in February, and Myles Straw, a 31-year-old righty, both of whom come with substantial limitations. Sánchez is carrying a career-high 39.6% chase rate, owns a career 38 wRC+ against lefties, and has rung up uncharacteristically awful defensive metrics in right field (-5 DRS and -6 FRV in just 273.2 innings), but his .274/.316/.437 (108 wRC+) batting line may make him look like Juan Soto to teams such as the Brewers, Phillies, Twins, and White Sox, all of whom were on the right field Killers list. He’s making just $6.8 million and has one year of arbitration eligibility remaining. Straw is hitting just .218/.273/.312 (64 wRC+), but put up a 91 wRC+ last year. He’s a speed-and-defense fifth outfielder who can round out a playoff roster; he’s making $7 million this season with a pair of club options remaining, including a $1.75 million buyout for 2027.

Particularly for a team that came so tantalizingly close to a championship, facing the reality that this isn’t their year isn’t an easy pill to swallow. Gausman understandably got choked up last week while discussing the conversations he’s had with his wife regarding possible destinations and the sadness of his time in Toronto coming to an end. It was a good reminder that trade buzz often overshadows the human emotions and logistical complexities of switching teams, particularly in midseason. Nonetheless, the business of baseball marches on.