Boston’s Trey Ball Coming Along Slowly, Still Has Upside

It has been almost exactly two years since the Red Sox made high-school left-hander Trey Ball the seventh-overall pick in the 2013 draft, the first southpaw off the board. Needless to say, such a high selection comes with considerable fanfare and attendant expectations. Soon after being drafted, most Red Sox prospect lists included Ball somewhere in the top 10 (in a stacked organization), and he even snuck into the back end of a few overall top 100s. He did sign for under slot, and as a lanky, projectable high-school arm, he wasn’t exactly expected to move quickly, but still, Ball has spent his career at least largely under the microscope.

Now under a month from his 21st birthday, though, Ball has done little to inspire significant praise since his selection. In 175.2 career innings, he has struck out 115, walked 75, allowed 18 home runs, and posted a 4.41 ERA. He ranked just 15th on Kiley’s offseason Red Sox prospect list, and that wasn’t far off his typical placement. Nobody’s written Ball off as a bust, but nobody has thrown future ace plaudits at him as a pro, either. Oddly, he seems to be almost flying under the radar, as others in Boston’s system have attracted more attention at various points in the past two seasons.

Ball nevertheless remains an important figure in the Boston system, and he’s at the point in his career where it’s time to start examining the present and future of his development. I caught his start on May 29, and it definitely gave a better sense of why Ball hasn’t taken the minors by storm yet, as well as how he projects going forward.

Fastball: 45/55

In this outing, Ball worked at 88-92 mph, which is not necessarily what one might expect from someone of his draft pedigree but everything else about the pitch holds intrigue for the future. Ball is a 6-foot-6 lefty who, as you can see, throws almost straight over the top. He gets good extension toward the plate and thus is able to create excellent downward plane. Further, unlike many high-slot pitchers, he is able to generate some life on the ball at times, showing the ability to add some run and sink without sacrificing velocity. At his best, he should be able to change hitters’ eye levels with the offering, something he already shows some feel for.

Ball’s lanky frame also still carries significant projection, and he’s a good candidate to pick up another tick or two as he matures physically. He was able to hold his velocity for five-plus innings in this outing; if anything, he was throwing harder in the fifth and sixth than he was in the early frames. Since his size and delivery make the pitch play up, Ball’s fastball could be a real weapon if he can be in the low 90s more consistently. It is his best offering at present and likely will remain the centerpiece of his arsenal if he fulfills that projection.

Curveball: 40/50

Ball’s mid-70s curveball is probably his weakest pitch at present. It has 12-to-6 shape and occasional depth. The .gif above is probably the best curve he threw in the outing, and if he could get this sort of depth on the offering consistently, it could emerge as an effective pitch. More often, however, it flattened out, showing only a short vertical drop that isn’t enough to fool hitters given the 75-76 mph velocity. Ball also tends to raise his arm slightly on the pitch, and he did not show an ability to throw the curve for strikes, preferring to play it off the fastball and bury it in the dirt. The pitch’s flashes lend some optimism that it can eventually round into an average offering, but it needs considerable work to get there.

Changeup: 40/50

Like the fastball and curve, Ball’s low-80s changeup flashed some good attributes in the outing, but also had its share of troublesome moments. He had no feel for the changeup in the opening frames; the first few that he threw were bottom-of-the-scale floaters. As the outing progressed, he gained more of a feel for the pitch, working it in mostly at 81-83 mph with average sink and fade. He shows good arm speed on the pitch at times, but will slow it down at others. More development time should iron out some of these flaws, and the pitch should emerge as an average offering in time.

Command: 40/50+

It should be clear by now that a main buzzword with Trey Ball is “consistency.” It’s an issue with all three of his offerings, and this also carries over to his command, as his peripherals indicate. He struggles to locate his curve, his feel for his changeup comes and goes, and he also has a tendency to release his fastball late, driving it into the dirt. However, at other times he’ll show a good sense of working all four quadrants of the zone, and he’s not afraid to work all three offerings inside to righties, a rarity for a young southpaw.

Outlook

Ball has a smooth, repeatable delivery, and he’s very athletic for a man of his size. As he’s still growing into his body to some extent, his release point and feel lapses are largely excusable at this developmental stage. While he’ll never be a surgically precise hurler, the athleticism and general mechanical soundness point toward an eventual eradication of the command weaknesses.

Overall, this examination reveals how Ball is paradoxically far from both the “stud” and “bust” labels two years after his high selection. He doesn’t get a ton of superlatives because he doesn’t bring any plus attributes (beyond pure size) to the table at present, but he doesn’t get derided because there’s a lot of reason to expect that the package will round into form with time.

Indeed, time is key with Ball. Despite his draft pedigree, this is not a prospect on the Eduardo Rodriguez path — it would be a shock to see him in the big leagues two months after his 22nd birthday (which would effectively make him a September call-up next year), let alone to see him throwing effectively at the big-league level at that age. At 6-foot-6 and probably somewhere around 200-205 pounds, Ball should probably add another 15 pounds of muscle on his way up the ladder. He’ll need at least a full offseason of work to get into that shape, and perhaps another season to adjust to its results. Beyond that, he needs increased consistency with both the movement and location on all three of his offerings.

The long-term outlook for Ball remains fairly positive: all three of his pitches flash average and could get there consistently in time, and he has a chance for above-average command as well. The flip side of this is that there’s nothing here that projects as a true standout skill, which is somewhat rare to see from a player drafted so highly. There is plenty of hope for success here, but that success looks more like a good, durable fourth starter (perhaps 2010-14 Jon Niese sort of output) than a true high-impact player.