Chris Carter & Chris Coghlan Get Similar Deals, Aren’t Similar

Chris Carter finally signed! With the Yankees, for $3 million plus incentives. Chris Coghlan also finally signed! With the Phillies, on a minor-league deal for $3 million plus incentives. On the one hand, these players couldn’t be any more different. But there are similarities, too, if we look at them through the lens of the market and its needs.

The shape of the production from these Chris two is kinda fun to look at. If you could smoosh them together, you’d have one heck of an all-around player.

Technically, these two deals aren’t the same, and that might have something to do with the bankability of their best skill. Carter got a major-league deal because power from a power position makes sense and should return again next year. He’s been a top-10 power bat since he became a regular in 2013, and that’s come in 2261 chances. A power bat, heading to a power park, equals a major-league deal.

Coghlan has skills, and it’s not like he’s a poor-bat middle infielder, but he produced more than a win by way of defense and baserunning per 600 plate appearances over the last four years, which is better than half the league. It’s non-elite defense and baserunning from a guy who has played more corner outfield than any other position. And that defensive value is based on 346 chances, so it’s almost one-tenth as assured as Carter’s value. That equals a minor-league deal most often.

The thing these deals have in common is that they suggest that the market didn’t value their contributions very highly. Maybe the market for power is overcorrecting, as Dave Cameron suggested, because there was a time when someone who’d hit 65 homers and driven in 158 runs over the last two years would have had more demand for his servives. Maybe our concept of aging curves has changed recently, because there was a time when a 31-year-old versatile bat who was worth three wins two years ago would have been in greater demand, too.

But this year, it turned out that the market saw them as about equal. Even though Carter and Coghlan swing with different hands, their handedness and position may have helped marginalize them.

Carter is a right-handed designated hitter, and he probably only had Boston, Seattle, Tampa Bay, and Texas to call this offseason. And that was before Mike Napoli reportedly signed with the Rangers today. Before you consider how the Mariners have been trying to get more athletic and well-rounded this year, and before you drill down too deeply into the Mitch Moreland / Hanley Ramirez dynamic in Boston. It was probably Tampa Bay or… New York, apparently.

Coghlan is left-handed — which, if he were a good second baseman, that would make him interesting. Only 12 second basemen recorded 300 plate appearances as lefties last year. The problem is that Coghlan has only spent around 200 innings at second in his career, and he’s never risen above a -10 defender there. Suddenly, he’s a left-handed outfielder projected to be 10% worse than league average with the stick. Not a package that’s in high demand.

They got signed though! And there’s where fit and upside come together to make a match.

The Phillies are trying to buy low in case they find something useful at a low price. In 2014 and 2015, Coghlan showed above-average power for the first time in his career. In those two years, he was 19% better than league average with the stick. Those were also the two years where Coghlan hit the most fly balls he’s ever hit. It’s worth a minor-league deal at that money to see if maybe he can find that and be more of a league-average type than a replacement type.

The Yankees are often said to be rebuilding, but they’ve added Matt Holliday this offseason, and now Carter. Tyler Austin — unless he really can play some third base — looks to be the odd man out now that Carter joins Greg Bird and Holliday at first and DH. Or Aaron Judge loses out and Holliday joins the outfield. Either way, a young man who was figuring on playing in the major leagues next year may spend more time in the minors than he expected.

You have to remember that Carter is projected to hit almost 20% better than Tyler Austin next year — and that the team projections, which have the Yankees at 83-79 right now without Carter, can be as much as 10 wins off in either direction without breaking the model. You start the season with Bird, Carter, and Holliday playing the big innings. If that doesn’t work out, you release them, trade them, and start playing Austin, Judge, and Aaron Hicks more as you look to 2018. It’s pretty much how the team approached last year, so it shouldn’t be too much of a surprise.

Two interesting players named Chris, two $3 million deals, and two decent fits on their new squads. Even if Chris Carter and Chris Coghlan are very different players, they ended up being good fits for their respective new teams.