College Team USA Top 20 Prospects: Nos. 1-10

It will be a challenge for the 2015 USA Baseball Collegiate National Team (CNT) to match what the previous two editions of the club have achieved in terms of the draft. The 2014 CNT produced 10 first-rounders in this year’s draft, including five of the top six college players taken as well as four of the top six picks overall. The 2013 CNT also produced 10 first-rounders.

That’s why ranking the top-20 prospects on Team USA isn’t an easy exercise. The majority of the players have the tools to land in the first round, so there are a few places on this list where the talent runs together. Nevertheless, the obvious strength of this year’s team was power arms with pitchability. The weakness was the lack of impact middle infielders.

Because of the length of this feature, we decided to split the list into two parts. You can see the 11th-20th ranked players and honorable mentions here.

Note: This ranking is based off my evaluations of their long-term potential – not just their CNT performance – and doesn’t reflect Kiley’s opinions or the official FanGraphs draft rankings, which will be coming in about two weeks. (Kiley’s pre-summer rankings are here.) This ranking includes all players who appeared in a game for Team USA and not just the players who were selected for the final roster. As such, it also includes rising sophomores, or players who won’t become eligible for the draft until 2017.

1. A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida (2016)

Puk is the top college southpaw in the 2016 draft class at this early juncture and is one of the two premier hurlers in the entire college crop along with Oklahoma righty Alec Hansen, who took the summer off. Puk’s fastball arrived at 92-94 mph this summer, touching 96 with exceptional downhill plane created by a glove-side torso tilt that lifts his three-quarters release point. Late in the spring, however, he was sitting a couple of ticks higher and getting into the high-90s. The slider registers between 82-83 mph, flashing above-average with solid vertical depth, though was plus later in the spring. He has a feel for a mid-80s tailing changeup that should become at least average with more reps.

Physically mature at 6-foot-7, 225 pounds, Puk has a soft and curiously proportioned figure with what one American League scout called “childbearing hips.” Still, he moves well for his size, displaying relative athleticism in a low-effort delivery with a clean arm action. After walking 35 batters over 78 innings as a sophomore this spring, he showed the potential for above-average command this summer by locating 68% of his pitches for strikes. With a durable build, plus left-handed velocity and projectable secondaries, he’s a front-end talent who has a chance to go No. 1 overall next June.

Stats: 12 IP, 2.25 ERA, 12 H, 2 BB, 9 K

2. Corey Ray, CF, Louisville (2016)

Ray showed profound five-tool potential for Team USA and is among the top tier of college center-field prospects for 2016 along with Nebraska’s Ryan Boldt, LSU’s Jake Fraley and Florida’s Buddy Reed. Built mesomorphically at 5-foot-11, 185 pounds with a lower half that looks as though it had been carved out of granite, he plays the game effortlessly in all phases thanks to fluid, quick-twitch athleticism. He led the team in extra-base hits, stolen bases and runs created per nine innings and exhibited markedly better plate discipline this summer than he has at any other point in his collegiate career.

At the plate, he pairs plus bat speed with a smooth, line-drive swing path that’s altogether a pretty motion. The strength in his forearms and wrists really stands out in batting practice, where he produced hard contact the other way and showed above-average raw power that is beginning to translate in games. The approach stepped forward while hitting leadoff this summer, as he struck out in just 16% of his plate appearances compared to 20% this spring and 35% last summer in the Cape Cod League. He’s also a plus runner with solid-average arm strength, giving him a true center-field profile. An up-the-middle athlete with a chance to hit at the top of an order, Ray is an early candidate for the top half of the first round.

Stats: 17 G, .355/.423/.548, 9 XBH, 7 BB, 11 K, 10 SB, 10.29 RC/9

3. Buddy Reed, CF, Florida (2016)

A dynamic athlete who can impact both sides of the ball, Reed has steadily polished his game since arriving in Gainesville. He struggled in his freshman year before making a dramatic improvement last summer, hitting .283/.352/.428 in the Northwoods League and then slashing .305/.367/.433 as a sophomore this spring. He carried that momentum into this summer, exhibiting the most projectable raw tools on Team USA.

The 6-foot-3, 200-pound switch-hitter plays with looseness in every phase, never more so than on the base paths where his easy gait produces home-to-first times that range between 3.96-4.08, or in the 60 to 70 range. His short swing is direct to the ball, and his athletic frame hints at above-average raw power that should convert to competition once he trades some of his contact orientation for more loft and leverage. A plus runner with above-average arm strength, he could be a standout defender with improved instincts. He ranks below Ray for now because it’s taking longer for his game power to develop, but he may have a higher ceiling once his tools reach maturity.

Stats: 12 G, .326/.354/.391, 3 XBH, 2 BB, 8 K, 4 SB, 5.64 RC/9

4. Tanner Houck, RHP, Missouri (2017)

Houck showed a front-end starter’s repertoire that he backed up with performance — which was all the more impressive considering he just finished throwing 100.2 innings in his freshman year at Missouri. I saw three of his four starts this summer, and each time his fastball ranged between 91 and 93 mph, peaking at 94. The fastball life is cartoonish — by far the best on this list — with consistent plus sink that sometimes runs before it cuts for a corkscrew-type effect. He throws an 81-84 mph slider, which has more downward bite than tilt and flashed plus while regularly showing above average, as well as an 83-85 mph sinking changeup with above-average potential.

Listed at 6-foot-5, 202 pounds, Houck has the classic projectable frame with broad shoulders and room to add bulk above a high, tapered-off waist. Natural deception comes from a whippy arm action with some effort in his low-slot release. He threw 66.2% of his pitches for strikes and walked just one batter the entire summer, showing advanced command of his fastball in particular by filling up the zone at or below the knees. With a chance for three quality pitches, present feel and perhaps more velocity in the tank, he has the look of a 1-1 candidate for 2017 with some scouts comparing him to Phillies righty Aaron Nola.

Stats: 16.2 IP, 2.16 ERA, 13 H, 1 BB, 14 K

5. Chris Okey, C, Clemson (2016)

Okey is the best college catching prospect in the 2016 class, an above-average catch-and-throw guy with an average offensive profile. He has good strength in his compact 5-foot-11, 195-pound build, portending durability with broad shoulders and muscular legs. He’s an advanced receiver with agility, athleticism and sure hands who allowed just one passed ball this spring as a sophomore at Clemson. He also has a plus arm which plays up due to a quick transfer, regularly producing sub-1.85 pop times.

Although he struggled at the plate this summer, he showed the present hitting tools that translated to a .315/.389/.545 line as a sophomore. He has a short swing, working inside the ball with a strong bottom hand that can produce hard line drives. His power has steadily blossomed over the last two years, and he now displays solid-average raw power that shows up in games. If he performs next year as he did last spring while showing the same defensive skill set, he’ll become a target in the top half of the first round.

Stats: .138/.207/.242, 2 XBH, 4 BB, 6 K, 1 SB, 1.98 RC/9

6. Nick Banks, RF, Texas A&M (2016)

This spot admittedly feels low for Banks, who did this summer for Team USA what he’s done everywhere else in his college career: perform. With possibly the best pure hit tool on this list, he has average or better tools across the board and could be intelligently argued higher, but he’s here because his overall skill set lacks the future projection of his higher-ranked outfielder counterparts. He changed his swing from last summer and now looks more mechanical, though the adjustments were geared for a more all-fields approach, which showed up in games, including an opposite-field homer against Cuba.

Banks has exceptional bat-to-ball ability with a quick, compact swing from the left side that produces solid-average raw power in batting practice and shoots both outfield gaps in games. The 6-foot, 200-pounder is something of a free swinger, but the aggressive approach is by choice, as he uses his discerning batter’s eye more for identifying which pitches he can drive rather than which pitches he can take. An average runner with a higher gear under way, the speed isn’t quite enough for center field, but his above-average arm strength will play in right. The ceiling isn’t as high as Ray’s or Reed’s, but it’s still a polished collection of tools with performance that would fit in the top half of the first round.

Stats: 17 G, .386/.453/.491, 4 XBH, 5 BB, 13 K, 8.63 RC/9

7. Logan Shore, RHP, Florida (2016)

One of the more polished arms in the upcoming draft class, Shore offers a high floor that should buoy his draft stock throughout the spring. He had one exceptionally rough outing this summer in which he allowed eight earned runs in one inning against the Canada Pan-American Team that wrecked his overall line, but threw eight scoreless innings in his other two outings. Against Cuba, he pounded the zone with a 93-95 mph fastball for four scoreless innings, throwing 28 of his 36 pitches for strikes. He may have the best changeup in college baseball right now, an 82-83 mph tumbler with consistent late fade that projects as at least a 60-grade offering. His 83-84 mph curveball was fringy that night, but has shown at least average potential in the past.

Shore’s delivery is smooth and simple, featuring a medium arm swing that takes a fully circular path en route to a three-quarters release point. There’s minimal projection left in his 6-foot-2, 215-pound frame, which is supported by a strong lower half that’s suitable for handling a starter’s workload. The biggest dings against him are a lack of fastball movement and his primitive breaking ball, but the basic recipe for a mid-rotation starter is there.

Stats: 9 IP, 8.00 ERA, 10 H, 3 BB, 10 K, .294 BAA

8. J.J. Schwarz, C, Florida (2017)

Following a stellar freshman campaign in which he played 70 games as part of Florida’s College World Series run, Schwarz didn’t perform up to his capability for Team USA, but he still showed the undeniable hitting tools that could make him the top overall pick in 2017. Plus raw power is his calling card, which was epically displayed at the Durham Bulls Athletic Park when he hit a moonshot over the Blue Monster — and above the Tobacco Road Sports Cafe on the concourse — in Team USA’s second game against Cuba. His smooth, right-handed stroke features a lofty swing plane that accounts for the ample backspin carry to his pull side, although its length adds a swing-and-miss element. Still, there’s enough contact ability and aptitude to become at least an average hitter with above-average game power.

The 6-foot-1, 205-pound backstop has already developed impressive strength, with more to come as he fills out the lean frame between his wide shoulders. The athleticism isn’t quite fast-twitch, but it’s sufficient to keep him from getting too stiff behind the plate as he adds bulk. The biggest questions surround his defense, as his hands, actions and solid-average arm strength may be just good enough to catch in the major leagues, but it’s going to take some work to become at least average defensively. Regardless of what glove he wears though, the bat plays anywhere and could someday anchor the middle of an order.

Stats: 11 G, .118/.167/.235, 2 XBH, 2 BB, 9 K, 0.58 RC/9

9. Brendan McKay, LHP, Louisville (2017)

I was tempted to run McKay up high on this list before deciding that was too aggressive based on where he is in his development. The trifecta of left-handedness, present stuff and pitchability is rare for a 19-year-old, and he’s also a pretty solid hitting prospect. As he did for Louisville this spring, he played both ways for Team USA, but tossed just 4.1 innings this summer after throwing 96.2 innings in his freshman year.

In my limited look this summer, his fastball ranged from 87 to 90 mph, though he sat 90-92 mph when I saw him in the spring against Duke. His 78-80 mph curveball has 12-to-6 shape, showing above-average potential with projectable snap and depth. He has thrown his changeup sparingly to date, but his general aptitude suggests he could develop it quickly. Despite issuing 34 walks this spring, his quiet athleticism and repeatable mechanics suggest command will improve. He also has an emotionless, resolute disposition on the mound that makes you feel even better about all of the tangible strengths. Already among the elite group of arms available for the 2017 draft, I’m expecting him to take a leap forward once he’s able to focus on pitching full-time.

Stats: 4.1 IP, 0.00 ERA, 5 H, 2 BB, 5 K

10. Robert Tyler, RHP, Georgia (2016)

After being sidelined for a few months this spring with arm soreness, Tyler showed well for Team USA and flashed the front-line stuff that makes him an candidate for the top 10 picks if he can put it all together. In my look, he parked his fastball between 92 and 96 mph and reached 97, although he’s been clocked up to 100 before. He has one of the best changeups in next year’s draft class, an 82-84 mph fading tumbler with good arm speed that should become plus, though the pitch often grades as a 55. He also mixes in a curveball at 78-80 mph, but it’s currently a fringy offering with little depth.

Tyler has a starting pitcher’s build at 6-foot-4, 217 pounds with sturdy, sloped-off shoulders, a strong lower half and some strength projection left. He gets downhill from a three-quarters slot with no effort in a simple delivery, which starts with a modest hip turn that transitions into a clean – though trackable – arm action. Command lags behind the raw stuff at this point as he threw just 58% of his pitches for strikes this summer, a rate that will improve by closing off a leaky front side and achieving more repeatability.

Stats: 9 IP, 1.00 ERA, 4 H, 4 BB, 7 K