Contract Crowdsourcing 2022-23: Ballot 5 of 11

by
November 1, 2022
© Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2022-23 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. And new this year, if there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2023 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for seven of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of position players with options or opt outs in their current contracts.





 

Meg is the managing editor of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on twitter @megrowler.

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darren
1 year ago

Those are some rough projections. Bogaerts at 4.0 after previous years of 5.9, 1.6 (4.3 adjusted for short season), 4.4, 6.1… Yikes. I guessed 7 years, $200 mil for him but I’m expecting him to be a fair bit better than 4.0 WAR!

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bosoxforlifemember
1 year ago
Reply to  darren

Here I am, easily in the 99th percentile of fanatical Red Sox fans, and I don’t want them to resign Bogaerts. I don’t believe I am ready for the funny farm yet but I just don’t see where he fits. 1st =Tristan Casas. 2nd=Trevor Story. SS=Marcelo Mayer. 3rd=Rafael Devers. He might be able to play LF but, in reality, has an arm that is totally ill-suited for any outfield position. That leaves DH, and while the Red Sox have utilized the DH properly since the arrival of Big Papi, Bogaerts, while an excellent hitter, is beginning to show signs of a loss of power and $25+ for any DH is very high, especially for a spray type hitter. I am clearly interested in what will happen and it isn’t a bad thing to have a good player on the team but I think that money should be spent on the mound.

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Chip Lockemember
1 year ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

While I agree that retaining him at such a price wouldn’t be smart, Mayer definitely won’t be up next year and just assuming he will be the SS of the future is a fool’s errand. I think if his stock dropped and the Sox could retain him for one or two years that would be a smart move.

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bosoxforlifemember
1 year ago
Reply to  Chip Locke

Putting trust in Mayer is the type of risk a team has to take. I am writing off 2023 which looks like a tough year for the Red Sox and Mayer will be ready or very close by 2024. The Astros won that bet this year with Pena for 2% of what Correa’s contract was. Bogaerts is not worth a massive contract but he has Boras as his agent and that complicates the situation even more.

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tung_twista
1 year ago
Reply to  darren

Agreed.

2013-2017 (20-24 y.o.)

2652PA / wRC+ 101 / war 11.9 / 2.7WAR/600PA

2018-2022 (25-29 y.o.)

2737PA / wRC+ 134 / war 22.4 / 4.9WAR/600PA

Not that Bogaerts having a 4 WAR season would be surprising, but seems a bit bearish for a median projection. I wonder whether his projection would be better if he spent his earlier seasons beating up AAA pitchers rather than struggle in the majors.

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JSJohnSmithAnon
1 year ago
Reply to  darren

At 30 he’s in the decline phase. And he’s outperformed his xwOBA every single year, it’s probably a “skill” at this point but not 40 points worth like this year and 2019. His 2022 really looks pretty fluky – highest BsR since 2017, highest Def since 2015 and the aforementioned xwOBA outperformance.

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