Contract Crowdsourcing 2022-23: Ballot 7 of 11

by
November 2, 2022
© Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2022-23 free-agent market.

In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor-league contract, or won’t receive one at all. And new this year, if there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2023 Steamer600 projections.

Below are ballots for six of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of pitchers with options or opt outs in their current contracts.





 

Meg is the managing editor of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on twitter @megrowler.

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sadtrombonemember
1 year ago

Hoo boy this is a tough one. I gave deGrom and Verlander 3 year, $120M deals based on the Scherzer deal–Verlander I think is older and deGrom hasn’t been as healthy, but Scherzer did have some questions about his long-term health as well (more so than Verlander does right now) and deGrom, when he pitches, is the best one in the game. So I could easily go down or up on each of these contracts.

I think Rodon fits cleanly in between Robbie Ray and Patrick Corbin, although he’ll probably get much closer to Corbin than Ray. I actually gave him Corbin’s contract but since salaries have gone up a bunch since I think that still slots in between them.

Walker isn’t a star or anything but guys like him have gotten 3/$30M deals pretty regularly so I think he opts out and gets something like that, with the upside in the Matz / Jon Gray type of range if demand exceeds supply like last year.

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TKDCmember
1 year ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I thought the exact same thing regarding Rodon and Corbin. The track record of being great is short, but he’s youngish so he’ll get paid.

I think deGrom will get way more than Verlander. Verlander is a couple years older than Scherzer and while the notion that “hitters age and pitchers break” is largely true, pitchers do eventually decline and Verlander is 40. DeGrom is younger and better. Weirdly, considering how good Scherzer is, deGrom still manages to be much better (when healthy). Every contending team will dream on having deGrom lead their postseason rotation.

I’ve actually picked about 5-6 QO acceptors so far and I think Walker is another.

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sadtrombonemember
1 year ago
Reply to  TKDC

I’m not convinced the Mets will offer him a QO. If they are offering QOs to pitchers and are picking between Bassitt and Walker, I’d give it to Bassitt. Although I think it’s possible neither one gets it. (I think Bassitt probably accepts in that case)

Aside from Bassitt and Tyler Anderson, I think the only guy who has a good chance of getting and accepting a QO is Rizzo. Maybe Martin Perez (I wouldn’t offer it, but who knows what the Rangers will do). I don’t think Jose Quintana or Ross Stripling get one; the Dodgers probably will let Kershaw do his own thing again. If the Astros didn’t have to figure out how to keep Verlander I’d think they’d at least consider issuing it for Brantley, but even then I don’t think it’s likely. The Rays are not going to QO Kluber for fear that he accepts. Another team might QO Eovaldi but I’m not sure the Red Sox are likely to do it.

Did I leave anyone out?

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TKDCmember
1 year ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Rizzo and Brantley were two, along with JD Martinez and Profar. I also get the feeling the Mariners might QO Haniger even though it would be pretty stupid.

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sadtrombonemember
1 year ago
Reply to  TKDC

I believe the word is the Red Sox will not QO Martinez, and if they’re being conservative about that they probably won’t QO Eovaldi either. I don’t think the Mariners will QO Haniger. That would be insane.

Profar is an interesting choice. I don’t think they’re likely to do that given how much money they are paying elsewhere but I suppose with Preller in charge you never know. I’d expect them to make a pretty serious attempt to re-sign him to a deal of similar length with a higher AAV, but not an AAV more than $10M.

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