Contract Crowdsourcing 2024-25: Ballot 2 of 10
Free agency begins five days after the end of the World Series. As in other recent seasons, FanGraphs is once again facilitating a contract crowdsourcing project, with the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowd to better understand and project the 2024-25 free agent market.
In recent years, we’ve added a few features to these ballots based on reader feedback. You now have the option to indicate that a player will only receive a minor league contract, or won’t receive one at all. If there is a player option, team option, or opt out in a player’s contract, you’ll be able to indicate whether you think he will remain with his current team or become a free agent. Numbers are prorated to full season where noted. The projected WAR figures are from the first cut of the 2025 Steamer600 projections.
Below are ballots for 11 of this year’s free agents — in this case, a group of starting pitchers.
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
Here are my guesses for the starters on 4-7 year deals:
The Cubs and Mets get in a bidding war for Corbin Burnes and he winds up getting just over $200M (maybe the Red Sox too if they decide they want to win the offseason).
I think Fried gets about $130-$150M, team TBD but I have to imagine the Braves will be in on him at that the lower levels of that.
Snell gets a deal in the $130-$150M level. I think the Giants are the exact type of team he wants to be with, and Posey is going to want to spend.
I think Manaea is risky to get a big deal, but the Mets seem to love him and they have a lot of money. I think he gets four years, maybe about $85-$90M. I think Pivetta gets about $60M, probably also over 4 years.
And then for the one-year deals. I think:
Bieber doesn’t get a QO and he signs a deal roughly the same value as the QO with a team like the Dodgers or Yankees that is chasing upside.
Flaherty gets frustrated with the lack of a mega-offer and signs another one year deal, but for a lot more money ($25M?). I think he could get 4 years, $80M if he wanted it but I think he wants more.
Wacha looks like a lock to opt out of that deal, and it would seem like a good move for the Royals to give him the QO. In that case he should accept since it will kill his market. I think probably a 60/40 likelihood he takes it.
Yankees have more than enough SP’s. I think Bieber stays with CLE. Health concerns will kill Flaherty’s market, he’s getting 3 years at the absolute max.
Isn’t Beiber going to miss a chunk of next season? Seems like a 2-year deal makes the most sense.
I just can’t see Stearns giving a 30 year old starter in Burnes, , who saw his K, and whiff rates fall off a good bit a long term deal or even enter a bidding war. I think Stearns trades for Crochet and re-signs Manaea and takes a dice roll on Buehler.
Buehler would definitely make a lot of sense for NYM. I think they’re going to want a proven ace like Snell or Fried. Kikuchi could make sense as well.
I just can’t see Stearns giving a starting pitcher in their 30’s a long term deal. Stearns even mentioned in his end of season presser how bad most long term contracts go for pitchers.
The Braves will offer him 6/$132m with a $22m team option, no buy out.
I think another team will bump up to $150m with an opt out and Fried is a players guy, so he will feel compelled to take it.
Expecting the Mets to make a big play for Fried.. a deal the Braves won’t match.. like 7 yrs and $200M
Fried is a game 1 starter and younger than Manaea. While he was great in his 1 yr in NY, a team is likely to overvalue him and he will sign elsewhere.
Mets seem more likely to re-sign Quintana to a short term extension.
Burnes is obviously the other big arm FA but Fried seems more like a Mets guy.
Seems extremely low on Fried, who I expect to get a deal similar to Nola’s
Ended up giving similar contracts to so many guys – Manaea, Kikuchi, Wacha, and Martinez all ended up in the “3 years at around $40-45MM in total” range for me
This is going to be an interesting year. There are going to be a few teams that are going to be spending like the Giants, Blue Jays, Cubs, and Mets. But there are a lot of teams that want to cut salary or stay stable, either to duck under the luxury tax or because they are worried about the loss of TV money. The Astros, Rangers, Cardinals, Padres, Twins, etc have all spent in free agency recently and are clearly nervous about money.
Some of these guys are going to get contracts above the $45M level because teams like the Mets or Giants decide they want them, and others are going to be waiting a while until their price drops.
I looked at this list and threw up my hands. There is a part of my mind that has etched into it that starting pitchers should throw a minimum of 200 innings to get paid exorbitant money. I look at the large number of albatross contracts that are out there and wonder which GM is going to throw the franchises money away next. Last year’s poster child was Giolito. The last contracts that Verlander and Scherzer signed, two of the best of the best over the past 15+ years, have turned out to be 2 of the worst contracts in the history of the game. The new question has to be just what is value of starting pitching as the structure of the pitching staffs change. The Guardians just reached the ALCS with a staff in which 2 of the 4 starters who started more than 20 games had negative bWAR greater than -1. What thought fits best, unbelievable, mind-boggling, astonishing, incredible? The Dodgers compiled the best record in 2024 without any qualifiers and only 2 pitchers with over 90 innings. Is the future one expensive starter and 25 fungible relievers hopping up and down from Triple-A? Economically that sounds appealing to the teams but let us hope it doesn’t come to that.
It’s a new and scary world out there. I have been thinking that the Red Sox desperately need to add a top starter, but after looking at the same numbers you’re mentioning here, I think maybe it’s not that crucial.
They had a pretty average rotation last year, maybe a little above. Going into next year, they lose Pivetta but get Giolito back. Their rotation depth is actually really impressive:
Houck
Bello
Giolito
Crawford
Whitlock
Priester
Criswell
Fitts
I’d put that depth up against any team. Yes, the team would still greatly benefit from adding a #1 starter at the top (who wouldn’t?). But if the market shakes out that they are better able to address their defense or add a superstar position player, and instead add a mid-rotation guy, that could be just as beneficial.