Crowdsourcing the Value of Trade Targets with Bad Contracts

by
November 11, 2014

As in other recent offseasons, FanGraphs once again facilitated this offseason a contract-crowdsourcing project for baseball’s free agents, the idea being to harness the wisdom of the crowds to the end of better understanding the 2014-15 offseason market. The result: a single post featuring the league’s top-55 free agents, ordered by projected size (in dollars) of contract.

The numbers produced by the crowd are imperfect — demonstrating, most notably, a streak of conservatism wherein the most talented free agents (Max Scherzer, Hanley Ramirez, etc.) are concerned. Even with certain biases present, however, the crowd’s estimates are useful for cultivating an understanding of the offseason market as a whole.

What follows is similar exercise as that offseason free-agent one — designed, however, not to estimate the values of the league’s free agents, but rather of those players who are both (a) candidates to be traded this offseason, but also (b) signed to contracts of disproportionate cost relative to the player’s likely benefit to a team in wins.

The purpose of this exercise: to estimate the actual market values (in dollars) of those same contracts for the years that remain on them. So, for example, Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp is owed $107 million through 2019 — that is, over five years. The question of interest here — and certainly one of interest to those general managers who might consider trading for Kemp — is thus: Were you a GM, how much would you pay for five years of Matt Kemp? Something more than $0, presumably, but also probably something less than $107 million.

Below are 10 players with regard to whom that sort of question is a relevant one.

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Mark Buehrle (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Buehrle:

  • Has averaged 202 IP and 2.7 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 2.7 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 3.5 WAR in 202.0 IP in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 1.3 WAR per 200 IP** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-36 season.
  • Is owed $19M through 2015.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate Mark Buehrle’s actual market value.

***

Carl Crawford (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Crawford:

  • Has averaged 321 PA and 1.9 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 3.5 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 2.5 WAR in 370 PA in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 2.3 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-33 season.
  • Is owed $62.3M through 2017.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate Carl Crawford’s actual market value.

***

John Danks (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Danks:

  • Has averaged 128 IP and 0.5 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 0.7 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 0.8 WAR in 193.2 IP in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 0.4 WAR per 200 IP** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-30 season.
  • Is owed $28.5M through 2016.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate John Danks’ actual market value.

***

Andre Ethier (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Ethier:

  • Has averaged 517 PA and 2.2 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 2.5 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 0.7 WAR in 380 PA in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 2.2 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-33 season.
  • Is owed $53.5M through 2017 and then either $17.5M for 2018 or a $2.5M buyout.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate Andre Ethier’s actual market value.

***

Aaron Hill (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Hill:

  • Has averaged 524 PA and 2.2 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 2.6 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a -0.7 WAR in 541 PA in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 1.1 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-33 season.
  • Is owed $24.0M through 2016.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate Aaron Hill’s actual market value.

***

Ryan Howard (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Howard:

  • Has averaged 419 PA and -0.3 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged -0.5 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a -0.3 WAR in 648 PA in 2014.
  • Is projected to record -0.9 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-35 season.
  • Is owed $50.0M through 2016 and then either $23.0M for 2017 or a $10.0M buyout.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate Ryan Howard’s actual market value.

***

Edwin Jackson (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Jackson:

  • Has averaged 168 IP and 1.6 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 1.9 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 0.5 WAR in 140.2 IP in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 0.6 WAR per 200 IP** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-31 season.
  • Is owed $22M through 2016.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate Edwin Jackson’s actual market value.

***

Matt Kemp (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Kemp:

  • Has averaged 446 PA and 1.5 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 2.1 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 1.8 WAR in 599 PA in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 2.4 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-30 season.
  • Is owed $107.0M through 2019.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate Matt Kemp’s actual market value.

***

Cliff Lee (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Lee:

  • Has averaged 171 IP and 3.9 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 4.5 WAR per 200 IP* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 1.7 WAR in 81.1 IP in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 2.8 WAR per 200 IP** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-36 season.
  • Is owed $25.0M through 2015 and then either $27.5M for 2016 or a $12.5M buyout.

*That is, a roughly average number of innings for a starting pitcher.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate Cliff Lee’s actual market value.

***

B.J. Upton (Profile)
Some relevant information regarding Upton:

  • Has averaged 554 PA and 1.0 WAR over last three seasons.
  • Has averaged 1.0 WAR per 600 PA* over last three seasons.
  • Recorded a 0.4 WAR in 582 PA in 2014.
  • Is projected to record 0.6 WAR per 600 PA** in 2015.
  • Is entering his age-30 season.
  • Is owed $46.4M through 2017.

*That is, a roughly average number of plate appearances for a starting player.
**According to prorated Steamer projections available here.

Click here to estimate B.J. Upton’s actual market value.





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

37 Comments
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LHPSU
9 years ago

Buehrle’s contract isn’t all that bad. If he was a free agent seeking a one year deal he could probably get 16 million, possibly more (comparison: Kuroda).

6
Doug Lampert
9 years ago
Reply to  LHPSU

Yeah, I remember looking at that and seriously considering simply clicking $19 million. His projection looks pessimistic to me, he’s an older pitcher so he certainly could fall apart, but he hasn’t yet and its a short contract…

A bunch of the other guys I decided if I were a GM I might take a flyer at a few million based on the upside if they’re healthy. But if Buehrle pitches as well next year as he did this year he’s still a bargain.

2
Yirmiyahu
9 years ago
Reply to  Doug Lampert

There’s also the fact that there’s probably a lot of teams who would be leery of giving a multiyear deal to a pitcher, and would gladly overpay a couple million for a one-year deal. Not $19M, but maybe $15M

0
Balthazar
9 years ago
Reply to  LHPSU

Yeah, not even sure why Buehrle is even on this list. Stats have never particularly liked him, and the ceiling isn’t super high. Then again, he’s about the most durable pitcher in the game, a LHP, and on a one-year deal essentially. For a team looking to shore up their rotation for a playoff run, he’d be a great candidate on performance, and maybe only $4-5M high. Very, very tradable with the right partner. I could see him going to Anaheim right now, even for salary relief primarily to the Jays.

Some of these other guys are essentially unmoveable in any sane world. The contracts aren’t just bad, they are epics of organizational misery. Howard, Ethier, B. J Upton might seriously get cut in Spring Training if you had them in camp on a minor league deal. Taking on a single dollar of their obligation, let alone trading anything of value for that is head-exploding kind of crazy. If Danks can pitch effectively, he’s tradeable. Since likely he can’t, why would you trade for him. It would take half a season of effective work to create a market for him. They others?: It all depends . . . .

0
Matt
9 years ago
Reply to  LHPSU

Funny. I selected 16 mil and right after I submitted I felt I should have selected 19. One year, crazy high floor, known quantity. If I was a GM at the right place on the win curve with the need, I would pay 19 mil f one-year of Buerhle. I think with the every team having 5 or 6 guys throw high 90’s – 100+ guys like Buerhle don’t get near the respect they deserve. He’s not a sexy signing, but he is a safe one on that hypothetical one-year. None of the others on this list are anything close to safe..

0