Daily Notes: Top Performances of the Southern League So Far

by
April 16, 2013

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of the Daily Notes.

1. SCOUT Leaderboards: Double-A Southern League
2. Today’s MLB.TV Free Game
3. Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages

SCOUT Leaderboards: Double-A Southern League
Previously considered: International League (April 10) / Pacific Coast League (April 11) / Eastern League (April 12).

Below are the present SCOUT hitting and pitching leaderboards for the Double-A Southern League.

“What is a SCOUT leaderboard, gentleman author?” perhaps a person is asking somewhere — to which question that same author has provided a (hopefully) reasonable answer here. In brief, however, it’s this: an attempt to use our knowledge of certain metrics, and at what sample sizes they become reliable, to measure run production and prevention in instances where small samples prevail.

Below are the leaderboards, as I say, for the Double-A Southern League, followed by some brief comments. (Note: statistics current as of Monday.)

SCOUT Leaderboard: Southern League Hitters (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Double-A Southern League. SCOUT+ combines regressed home-run, walk, and strikeout rates in a FIP-like equation to produce a result not unlike wRC+, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Southern League hitters) and above 100 is above average. xHR%, xBB%, and xK% stand for expected home run, walk, and strikeout rate, respectively.

Player Team Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Joc Pederson Dodgers (AA) 21 42 3 2 4 2.1% 8.1% 17.6% 113
Marcus Semien White Sox (AA) 22 44 1 5 3 1.5% 9.5% 16.7% 111
Miguel Rojas Dodgers (AA) 24 32 0 7 2 1.2% 11.0% 17.7% 111
Justin Bour Cubs (AA) 25 44 1 7 6 1.5% 10.5% 18.7% 110
Brodie Greene Reds (AA) 25 34 1 4 2 1.5% 9.5% 17.4% 110
Brad Miller Mariners (AA) 23 41 2 5 7 1.8% 9.6% 19.8% 110
Robby Price Rays (AA) 25 38 1 7 7 1.5% 10.8% 20.2% 109
Jason Rogers Brewers (AA) 25 40 1 2 2 1.5% 8.2% 16.6% 108
Nick Evans Diamondbacks (AA) 27 32 0 6 3 1.2% 10.5% 18.3% 108
Mike Walker Brewers (AA) 25 32 1 5 5 1.5% 10.0% 19.7% 108

SCOUT Leaderboard: Southern League Hitters (Age 23 and Under)
Here are the top-10 batters of the Double-A Southern League who might still, because of their age, be considered prospects — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player Team Age PA HR BB K xHR% xBB% xK% SCOUT+
Joc Pederson Dodgers (AA) 21 42 3 2 4 2.1% 8.1% 17.6% 113
Marcus Semien White Sox (AA) 22 44 1 5 3 1.5% 9.5% 16.7% 111
Brad Miller Mariners (AA) 23 41 2 5 7 1.8% 9.6% 19.8% 110
Steven Proscia Mariners (AA) 23 32 2 4 7 1.9% 9.5% 21.0% 108
Derek Dietrich Marlins (AA) 23 43 1 6 7 1.5% 10.0% 19.5% 107
Tucker Barnhart Reds (AA) 22 30 1 4 4 1.5% 9.6% 19.3% 107
Dashenko Ricardo Dodgers (AA) 23 9 1 1 0 1.6% 9.1% 19.5% 106
Rossmel Perez Diamondbacks (AA) 23 28 0 2 0 1.2% 8.7% 16.9% 105
Ronald Torreyes Cubs (AA) 20 10 0 3 0 1.3% 10.0% 19.4% 105
Yasiel Puig Dodgers (AA) 22 36 2 3 8 1.8% 8.9% 21.1% 105

SCOUT Leaderboard: Southern League Pitchers (Overall)
Below is the current SCOUT pitching leaderboard for the Double-A Southern League. SCOUT- combines regressed strikeout and walk rates in a kwERA-like equation to produce a number not unlike ERA-, where 100 is league average (in this case, for all Southern League pitchers) and below 100 is better than average. xK% and xBB% stand for expected strikeout and walk rate, respectively.

Player Team Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Brian Flynn Marlins (AA) 23 2 2 11.0 42 17 1 26.3% 8.5% 79
Zach Rosscup Cubs (AA) 25 4 0 5.0 20 11 1 25.3% 8.8% 83
Adam Conley Marlins (AA) 23 2 2 9.0 35 13 0 24.6% 8.4% 85
Alex Wood Braves (AA) 22 2 2 9.0 34 13 2 24.7% 8.8% 85
Steve Garrison Diamondbacks (AA) 26 3 1 4.2 19 9 1 24.2% 8.8% 88
Yohan Pino Reds (AA) 29 3 1 9.0 29 10 0 23.4% 8.5% 89
Ryan Kussmaul White Sox (AA) 26 3 0 6.0 21 9 2 23.9% 9.0% 89
Curtis Partch Reds (AA) 26 4 0 5.0 21 9 2 23.9% 9.0% 89
Alberto Cabrera Cubs (AA) 24 2 2 12.0 49 14 2 23.3% 8.5% 90
Raudel Lazo Marlins (AA) 24 4 0 5.0 18 8 1 23.6% 8.9% 90

SCOUT Leaderboard: Southern League Pitchers (Starters Only)
Here are the top-10 pitchers in the Double-A Southern League who have made at least half of their appearances as starts — again, as determined by the methodology explained above.

Player Team Age G GS IP TBF K BB xK% xBB% SCOUT-
Brian Flynn Marlins (AA) 23 2 2 11.0 42 17 1 26.3% 8.5% 79
Adam Conley Marlins (AA) 23 2 2 9.0 35 13 0 24.6% 8.4% 85
Alex Wood Braves (AA) 22 2 2 9.0 34 13 2 24.7% 8.8% 85
Alberto Cabrera Cubs (AA) 24 2 2 12.0 49 14 2 23.3% 8.5% 90
Hector Noesi Mariners (AA) 26 2 2 11.0 41 12 3 23.1% 8.9% 91
James Nelson Brewers (AA) 24 2 2 11.0 45 12 2 22.5% 8.6% 93
Aaron Northcraft Braves (AA) 23 2 2 10.0 40 11 2 22.6% 8.7% 93
Jake Thompson Rays (AA) 23 1 1 6.0 22 7 0 22.4% 8.6% 93
Zach Lee Dodgers (AA) 21 2 2 11.0 46 12 3 22.4% 8.8% 94
Taijuan Walker Mariners (AA) 20 2 2 10.0 49 13 6 22.7% 9.3% 94

Brief Notes
• Outfielder Joc Pederson was an 11th-round pick in 2010 by the Dodgers out of Palo Alto (CA) High School. Prospect analyst Mike Newman discussed him briefly during his most recent appearance on FanGraphs Audio, noting that, while toolsy, Pederson would ultimately probably lack the range for center and the power traditionally associated with corner outfielders — but that he might be useful as a regular, anyway.

• Marcus Semien is an infield prospect in the White Sox system originally taken in the sixth round of the 2011 draft by the White Sox. Part of his future value, it would seem, is based on his ability to play shortstop ably — a prospect about which the internet is guardedly optimistic.

• Left-hander Brian Flynn was acquired by Miami, along with Jacob Turner and Rob Brantly, in the deal that sent Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez to Detroit. Listed at 6-foot-8 and 230 pounds, Flynn certainly appears to have the sort of size one would like in a pitching prospect — the sort, it should be said, which helps a pitcher’s perceived, if not always his actual, velocity. The numbers here omit his Monday start, during which he posted a slightly less impressive 2:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 6.0 innings (box).

Today’s Notable Games (Including MLB.TV Free Game)
Kansas City at Atlanta | 19:10 ET
While there’s no such official thing as Opposite Day, it’s also the case that frequently mediocre Kansas City right-hander Jeremy Guthrie has posted an excellent 11:2 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 84 xFIP- in his first two starts (12.2 IP), while Kris Medlen — who was one of professional baseball’s very best professionals last year — has recorded what might be properly referred to as a “ghastly” 4:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio and 137 xFIP- in his two starts (12.0 IP). Unrelated to that, but still entirely relevant, is this Evan Gattis Status Update: 39 PA, .324/.385/.735 (.292 BABIP), 10.3% BB, 17.9% K, 197 wRC+, 0.7 WAR.

Readers’ Preferred Broadcast: Atlanta Radio.

Today’s Game Odds, Translated into Winning Percentages
Note: the very proprietary and also critically acclaimed NERD game scores will become available again at the end of April/beginning of May.

Here — for purposes entirely of entertainment and not for gambling, which is a Scourge of Propriety — are all of today’s games with moneyline odds (from relatively “sharp” sportsbook Pinnacle Sports) translated into projected winning percentages (and adjusted to account for the vigorish).

Games are listed in Eastern Time, as the author has recently bothered to learn how to convert time zones in Excel. Game presented in order of (a) National League and then (b) American League and, finally, then (c) interleague play.

***Note: for reasons that are mysterious and a mystery, the first game of the Mets-Rockies doubleheader (12:10 ET, Dillon Gee vs. Juan Nicasio) is omitted from the following.***

Game Teams Starters Line Win%
19:05 St. Louis Cardinals Jake Westbrook 1.71 57.2%
ET Pittsburgh Pirates Jonathan Sanchez 2.29 42.8%
— — — — —
19:10 Washington Nationals Dan Haren 1.65 59.6%
ET Miami Marlins Alex Sanabia 2.43 40.4%
— — — — —
19:10 Philadelphia Phillies Kyle Kendrick 2.36 41.5%
ET Cincinnati Reds Homer Bailey 1.68 58.5%
— — — — —
20:10 San Francisco Giants Barry Zito 1.89 52.0%
ET Milwaukee Brewers Wily Peralta 2.04 48.0%
— — — — —
20:40 G2 New York Mets Aaron Laffey 2.36 41.5%
ET G2 Colorado Rockies Jeff Francis 1.68 58.5%
— — — — —
22:10 San Diego Padres Jason Marquis 2.65 37.0%
ET Los Angeles Dodgers Chris Capuano 1.56 63.0%
— — — — —
19:05 Chicago White Sox Dylan Axelrod 2.30 42.6%
ET Toronto Blue Jays Josh Johnson 1.71 57.4%
— — — — —
19:05 Boston Red Sox Felix Doubront 1.98 49.5%
ET Cleveland Indians Ubaldo Jimenez 1.94 50.5%
— — — — —
19:05 Tampa Bay Rays Roberto Hernandez 2.08 47.1%
ET Baltimore Orioles Jake Arrieta 1.86 52.9%
— — — — —
20:10 LAA Angels Jason Vargas 1.80 54.4%
ET Minnesota Twins Mike Pelfrey 2.15 45.6%
— — — — —
22:05 Houston Astros Brad Peacock 2.85 34.4%
ET Oakland Athletics A.J. Griffin 1.50 65.6%
— — — — —
22:10 Detroit Tigers Doug Fister 1.73 56.6%
ET Seattle Mariners Aaron Harang 2.26 43.4%
— — — — —
19:05 Arizona Diamondbacks Brandon McCarthy 2.15 45.6%
ET New York Yankees Ivan Nova 1.80 54.4%
— — — — —
19:10 Kansas City Royals Jeremy Guthrie 2.65 37.0%
ET Atlanta Braves Kris Medlen 1.56 63.0%
— — — — —
20:05 Texas Rangers Derek Holland 1.77 55.4%
ET Chicago Cubs Travis Wood 2.20 44.6%





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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CB
11 years ago

My At Bat app says that the first game of the Mets-Rockies doubleheader is at 3:10 ET, 12:10 PT, FYI. 12:10 ET would be quite an early start in Colorado!

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