Dansby Swanson and the History of Trading No. 1 Picks

As the reader has certainly heard, the Arizona Diamondbacks sent an impressive collection of talent to Atlanta on Tuesday night in exchange for right-hander Shelby Miller. As Jeff Sullivan has already noted here, the benefits of the deal for the D-backs aren’t particularly easy to identify. They acquire three years of Miller, yes, but at the cost not only of three promising young players, but also of relying more heavily on Yasmany Tomas. In the final analysis, the present gains appear to be minimal, while the future losses are quite possibly substantial.

Among the more notable qualities of the trade is Arizona’s decision to part with shortstop Dansby Swanson, the No. 1 overall pick from the most recent draft. In light of that draft pedigree and his current place among all prospects — MLB.com ranks him 10th currently — it’s not a stretch to suggest that Swanson is worth $50 million right now. Which is to say: a lot. There is, of course, no guarantee that Swanson will be great, but there’s also no guarantee about any of these human people. One works in probabilities, and the probability that Swanson develops into a useful player — or something more impressive than that — is pretty strong.

And here’s the most curious thing: the D-backs just acquired Swanson five months ago. Given a choice of all draft-eligible amateurs back in June, the D-backs selected him. And now they’ve surrendered him less than half a year later. Is it possible that their evaluation of Swanson has changed dramatically over that interval? Yes, but only in the same way that escaping the constant burden of one’s mortality is possible: not very.

And working under the assumption that the D-backs think roughly the same of Swanson that they did back in June, it’s difficult to perform any manner of calculus which suggests that the D-backs have employed maximum wisdom by dealing Swanson et al.

If trading a No. 1 pick a mere five months after his draft seems uncommon, that’s because it is. Indeed, up until this past April, it would have been illegal. That’s when Major League Baseball amended a rule that forbade the trading of a player during the first 12 months following his draft. Now teams must only wait until the conclusion of the World Series. That’s what made Swanson available so soon.

Beyond the rules, however, trading No. 1 picks has been rare anyway. And it follows: a club performs considerable due diligence while leading up to a first-overall selection — and likely becomes attached to the player whom they select. Whether because of their belief in the player, or the considerable investment of time and energy and money which that player represents

So it’s a rare occurrence. But how rare is it?

To answer the question, it’s essential to establish some criteria. Our concern here is not to identify No. 1 picks who’ve been traded at any point in their careers, but during the time when they still possessed the glow of one-dom. If Luke Hochevar were involved in a deal this afternoon, for example, that wouldn’t be a case of the Royals trading Luke Hochevar, Former No. 1, it would rather represent an instance of the Royals trading Luke Hochevar, Modestly Effective Relief Pitcher. That’s a markedly different thing.

It’s a matter of opinion, perhaps, this business of identifying when prospect “shine” wears off, but it’s probably fair to say that, after a player has exhausted his rookie eligibility, he reaches a point at which he’s expected to convert some of his potential excellence into real excellence. It’s also probably fair to say that prospects who’ve played more than three minor-league seasons after their draft year without reaching the majors have also met sufficient difficult along the way to diminish the enthusiasm for the future.

With all that in mind, I searched for No. 1 picks since 1965 (when the amateur draft began) who were traded before reaching 130 plate appearances or 50 innings in the majors with their drafting club — or who otherwise played fewer than three full minor-league seasons with the drafting club.

Below is a table containing all the players who meet that criteria. The table is small, because so is the quantity of players.

Traded No. 1 Picks, 1965-2014

Player	Drafted	By	Traded	To	PA	WAR	WAR/600
Shawn Abner	1984	Mets	1986	Padres	902	-1.2	-0.8
Phil Nevin	1992	Astros	1995	Tigers	4703	15.2	1.9
Adrian Gonzalez	2000	Marlins	2003	Rangers	6974	37.5	3.2

Others have come close. After being selected by Houston in 1976, left-hander Floyd Bannister played only two seasons with the Astros before moving to Seattle in a trade. He recorded over 250 innings as a major leaguer in the meantime, however. Before Bannister, designated hitter Danny Goodwin was selected first overall by the Angels in 1975. He was traded to Minnesota after the 1978 season, but crossed both the season-played and MLB plate appearance threshold (he recorded 175 of them in California) in the process.

Returning to the table above, however, one is forced to conclude that extracting anything of great meaning from a sample of three is probably foolish. Although, the paucity of the sample does suggest something: it’s rare for clubs to trade away an No. 1 pick. By the methodology used here, in fact, it’s happened just three times in a 50-year sample. Even accounting for the few times a club has failed to sign the first-overall pick (like last year with Brady Aiken) still produces a rate of about three in 45 years — or, roughly 7% of all drafts.

Credit to Mike Hannah of Bluebird Banter who helpfully documented the first transactions of all former No. 1 picks.