Everybody Shut Up and Pay Attention to Jung-ho Kang

Last week, I wrote a post asking whether Carlos Correa might already be the best shortstop in baseball. There is no consensus opinion on that one — a big group of people think he just might be, and another big group of people don’t think he’s proven enough. That’s all totally fine; it wouldn’t be an interesting question if we absolutely knew the answer. The main point is there’s a chance; Correa has been that outstanding. Since the All-Star break, for example, he’s tied for sixth among all position players in WAR. The guy he’s tied with is sometimes-shortstop Jung-ho Kang.

I don’t think anyone’s going to argue that Kang might be the best shortstop in baseball. He hasn’t performed at the level for long enough, nor does he quite have the defensive profile. Increasingly, however, it’s becoming clear that Kang was a hell of a find. His second-half offense has been about on par with Josh Donaldson and Chris Davis. Kang, in his rookie season, has shown several signs of promising development. The easiest possible explanation for each? It’s noise. Total randomness, devoid of any meaning. But I’m going to offer an easy alternate explanation. Kang seemingly keeps getting better. Maybe it’s obvious why.

Hypothesis: it isn’t easy getting used to the major leagues. It especially isn’t easy if you’re transitioning over from South Korea. It’s not just the game you have to adjust to; it’s also the living situation. It’s the language. It’s the everything. Kang has recently come on strong, after spending a few months trying to find his feet. Perhaps, he should be examined like any other player. Or perhaps he’s been asked to perform under unusual circumstances, and what he’s done lately is just more reflective of what he is as a ballplayer when he’s comfortable. Of course, this can’t actually be proven. This is just one theory. I happen to believe it shouldn’t be a controversial one.

Dan Farnsworth wrote several months ago about how much he loved Kang’s swing. Farnsworth had full confidence Kang would be able to bring the swing over to North America and find offensive success. An excerpt from the end of the article:

Playing time will not be an issue once he outplays the rest of the Pirates infield — they’ll find room for his bat. For logistical reasons, give him a break at the start for the culture change and settling into the grind of big league baseball, but he has all the makings of being an absolute monster.

Nothing too weird, right? Talented player, who deserved some patience on account of changing his whole entire life. At the start, there was a chance Kang wouldn’t yet be comfortable. So maybe it would take some time for him to look like his real self. I understand this can be used to make Kang look better, so maybe it doesn’t stand up to science, but the bigger point is, take a look at how Kang has changed as the season has gotten older. It hasn’t just been a matter of generating more positive results. There are a lot of the hallmarks of adjustments being made, of Kang starting to look like a truly talented power hitter.

I’ve already gotten this far, so I might as well introduce some arbitrary endpoints. This is done because points have to be drawn somewhere, so I’ve elected to split Kang’s season right at the start of July. Of course, the numbers change if you move the points around, but following are the numbers I’m looking at after having set the points where I did. We can just start with some overall offense:

wRC+

• Through June: 106
• Since July: 182

This isn’t the only reason why Kang is being written about, but it’s kind of the biggest reason. He started out well enough, but more recently, he’s resembled the guy who was previously one of the very best hitters in his league. And supporting the improved wRC+ are other little changes, underneath. For example:

Groundball rate

• Through June: 55%
• Since July: 45%

You can never really be sure right away about a guy’s “true talent” groundball level, but you can try to learn a few things from the swing. There are groundball swings and fly ball swings, and Kang has a background as a power hitter. He doesn’t feature baseball’s most dramatic uppercut, but he does swing forcefully, with an angled bat path. It stands to reason that the normal version of Kang shouldn’t be a groundball hitter. So it stands to reason that, when Kang looks like a groundball hitter, he’s a little bit off. This is more like his game. Everything about his swing, beginning with the leg kick, is designed to get the ball driven and elevated.

Pull rate

• Through June: 51%
• Since July: 39%

This was a concern of mine at the beginning. The Farnsworth article, which was complimentary of Kang, included the following .gif:

What you see is a good thing — what you see is Kang going deep. But it strikes me as kind of a problem home run, because that’s not a pitch you want to be pulling, really. And if you’re trying to pull that pitch, you might be too pull-happy, and that can be exploited by big-league competition. Not everyone can be Brian Dozier. I wasn’t sure if Kang would be able to drive the ball to all fields. At the beginning, he mostly stuck around left field. But he’s started to go more up the middle and the other way. This was something he did Sunday against the Dodgers:

That pitch, Kang didn’t pull — that pitch, Kang went with. He drove it out down the right-field line. At this writing, Kang has a 175 wRC+ to left, a 156 wRC+ to center, and a 178 wRC+ to right. Doesn’t mean he’s actually that good. Does mean, simply, that he’s been that good so far.

Hard-hit rate

• Through June: 25%
• Since July: 40%

This one kind of speaks for itself. Every single hitter on the planet will tell you, in some language, that his plan is to swing and hit the ball hard somewhere. Doesn’t need to be a home run; hitters just want to make solid, hard contact. Kang has made more solid, hard contact. It goes into the improved wRC+. Everything supports everything else. More good contact, more balls in the air, more balls to all fields — this is what it looks like when a quality hitter is feeling like himself and having the at-bats than he wants. Kang’s recent hard-hit rate ranks among the best in the league. He’s erased just about every concern that he might not be able to hang with big-league velocity.

At last:

Contact rate

• Through June: 75%
• Since July: 81%

Interestingly, Kang didn’t exactly avoid striking out in Korea. Though his whiffs weren’t a problem, they were very much present, and now that he’s going up against even better opponents, he’s doing a better job of putting the ball in play, or even beyond it. So, to tie it all together, there’s more contact, and better contact, and more fly-ball contact. At risk of going too far, Farnsworth drew a few parallels between Kang’s swing and that of Miguel Cabrera, and while Kang obviously isn’t a hitter at Cabrera’s level — so far as we know — he’s performed at that level for a month and a half. To make up for a lack of walks, he gets hit by pitches. The more Kang plays, the less there is to criticize. His power is absolutely for real, and he’s now proven that he’s able to get to it in game action against some of the best pitchers in the world.

It took a few months for Jung-ho Kang to settle into a consistent groove. It really could be that’s just a coincidence, but it’s just as easy to believe it simply took him a while to get used to a brand-new setting, while playing a familiar game with the speed turned up. That would be only very human of him, and though I understand in this post I might be giving too much of the benefit of the doubt, Kang’s circumstances have been different, so he can’t be looked at like anyone else. There really could be more to his development. Especially since he’s increasingly looking like the power hitter he became overseas.

A four-year contract, for practically nothing. A posting fee for practically nothing. A cheap, power-hitting, right-handed, shortstop-capable infielder in his 20s. It’s starting to look like Jung-ho Kang was exactly the sort of player every team always wishes would become available. If only.