Here’s Who Is Going to Win the 2020 World Series (Maybe)
Asking baseball writers to predict the postseason is unkind under the best of circumstances. Throw in a 16-team field and a best-of-three Wild Card Series where the higher seed’s only real advantage is playing at home, and something is bound to go sideways. Still, our readers demand their answer, so I asked my colleagues to predict which team will emerge from the postseason gauntlet with a trophy, and which squads are bound for early exits. Twenty of us answered the call. Below are the results by league and round, as well as each writer’s complete forecast in a sortable table. Happy playoffs!
American League Wild Card Series
Blue Jays (8) vs. Rays (1)
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Rays | 19 |
| Blue Jays | 1 |
White Sox (7) vs. Athletics (2)
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| White Sox | 14 |
| Athletics | 6 |
Astros (6) vs. Twins (3)
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Twins | 17 |
| Astros | 3 |
Yankees (5) vs. Indians (4)
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Yankees | 10 |
| Indians | 10 |
National League Wild Card Series
Brewers (8) vs. Dodgers (1)
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Dodgers | 20 |
| Brewers | 0 |
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Reds (7) vs. Braves (2)
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Reds | 16 |
| Braves | 4 |
Marlins (6) vs. Cubs (3)
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Cubs | 13 |
| Marlins | 7 |
Cardinals (5) vs. Padres (4)
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Padres | 16 |
| Cardinals | 4 |
American League Division Series
ALDS Rays/Blue Jays vs. Indians/Yankees Winners Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Yankees vs. Rays | 11 |
| Indians vs. Rays | 8 |
| Indians vs. Blue Jays | 1 |
ALDS Rays/Blue Jays vs. Indians/Yankees Series Winner
| Series Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Rays | 12 |
| Indians | 4 |
| Yankees | 3 |
| Blue Jays | 1 |
ALDS Athletics/White Sox vs. Twins/Astros Winners Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Twins vs. White Sox | 12 |
| Twins vs. Athletics | 5 |
| Astros vs. White Sox | 2 |
| Astros vs. Athletics | 1 |
ALDS Athletics/White Sox vs. Twins/Astros Series Winner
| Series Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Twins | 11 |
| White Sox | 7 |
| Astros | 1 |
| Athletics | 1 |
National League Division Series
NLDS Dodgers/Brewers vs. Padres/Cardinals Winners Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Padres vs. Dodgers | 16 |
| Cardinals vs. Dodgers | 4 |
NLDS Dodgers/Brewers vs. Padres/Cardinals Series Winner
| Series Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Dodgers | 15 |
| Padres | 5 |
NLDS Braves/Reds vs. Cubs/Marlins Winners Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Cubs vs. Reds | 10 |
| Marlins vs. Reds | 6 |
| Cubs vs. Braves | 3 |
| Marlins vs. Braves | 1 |
NLDS Braves/Reds vs. Cubs/Marlins Series Winner
| Series Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Reds | 13 |
| Braves | 4 |
| Cubs | 3 |
American League Championship Series
ALCS Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Rays vs. Twins | 8 |
| Rays vs. White Sox | 3 |
| Indians vs. Twins | 2 |
| Yankees vs. White Sox | 2 |
| Blue Jays vs. White Sox | 1 |
| Indians vs. Astros | 1 |
| Indians vs. White Sox | 1 |
| Rays vs. Athletics | 1 |
| Yankees vs. Twins | 1 |
ALCS Winner
| Series Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Rays | 9 |
| Yankees | 3 |
| Indians | 3 |
| Twins | 2 |
| White Sox | 2 |
| Athletics | 1 |
National League Championship Series
NLCS Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Dodgers vs. Reds | 9 |
| Padres vs. Reds | 4 |
| Dodgers vs. Braves | 3 |
| Dodgers vs. Cubs | 3 |
| Padres vs. Braves | 1 |
NLCS Winner
| Series Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Dodgers | 14 |
| Padres | 3 |
| Reds | 3 |
World Series
World Series Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Dodgers vs. Rays | 8 |
| Dodgers vs. Yankees | 3 |
| Dodgers vs. Twins | 2 |
| Dodgers vs. Indians | 1 |
| Padres vs. Athletics | 1 |
| Padres vs. Indians | 1 |
| Padres vs. White Sox | 1 |
| Reds vs. Indians | 1 |
| Reds vs. Rays | 1 |
| Reds vs. White Sox | 1 |
World Series Champion
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Dodgers | 13 |
| Padres | 2 |
| Athletics | 1 |
| Rays | 1 |
| Reds | 1 |
| Twins | 1 |
| White Sox | 1 |
Full Staff Predictions
FanGraphs 2020 Staff Wild Card Series Predictions
| Writer | TBR/TOR | OAK/CHW | MIN/HOU | CLE/NYY | LAD/MIL | ATL/CIN | CHC/MIA | SDP/STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | TOR | CHW | MIN | CLE | LAD | CIN | CHC | SDP |
| Ariel Cohen | TBR | CHW | MIN | NYY | LAD | CIN | CHC | SDP |
| Ben Clemens | TBR | OAK | MIN | NYY | LAD | CIN | CHC | SDP |
| Brendan Gawlowski | TBR | CHW | MIN | NYY | LAD | ATL | CHC | SDP |
| Craig Edwards | TBR | CHW | HOU | NYY | LAD | ATL | CHC | STL |
| Dan Szymborski | TBR | OAK | MIN | NYY | LAD | CIN | CHC | SDP |
| David Laurila | TBR | OAK | MIN | CLE | LAD | ATL | MIA | SDP |
| Dylan Higgins | TBR | OAK | MIN | CLE | LAD | CIN | MIA | SDP |
| Eric Longenhagen | TBR | CHW | MIN | CLE | LAD | CIN | CHC | SDP |
| Jake Mailhot | TBR | CHW | MIN | NYY | LAD | CIN | CHC | SDP |
| Jason Martinez | TBR | CHW | MIN | NYY | LAD | CIN | CHC | SDP |
| Jay Jaffe | TBR | OAK | MIN | NYY | LAD | CIN | CHC | SDP |
| Jeff Zimmerman | TBR | CHW | MIN | NYY | LAD | CIN | MIA | SDP |
| Jon Tayler | TBR | CHW | MIN | NYY | LAD | CIN | CHC | SDP |
| Meg Rowley | TBR | CHW | MIN | CLE | LAD | CIN | MIA | STL |
| Michael Simione | TBR | CHW | MIN | NYY | LAD | CIN | MIA | STL |
| Paul Sporer | TBR | OAK | HOU | CLE | LAD | CIN | MIA | SDP |
| Rachael McDaniel | TBR | CHW | MIN | CLE | LAD | CIN | CHC | SDP |
| Shelly Verougstraete | TBR | CHW | MIN | CLE | LAD | CIN | MIA | STL |
| Tony Wolfe | TBR | CHW | HOU | CLE | LAD | ATL | CHC | SDP |
FanGraphs 2020 Staff DS, CS, and World Series Predictions
| Writer | ALDS Series A | ALDS Series B | NLDS Series A | NLDS Series B | NLCS Winner | ALCS Winner | World Series Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | TOR | CHW | SDP | CIN | SDP | CHW | SDP |
| Ariel Cohen | TBR | CHW | LAD | CIN | LAD | TBR | LAD |
| Ben Clemens | NYY | MIN | LAD | CIN | LAD | NYY | LAD |
| Brendan Gawlowski | TBR | MIN | LAD | ATL | LAD | NYY | LAD |
| Craig Edwards | TBR | CHW | LAD | ATL | LAD | TBR | LAD |
| Dan Szymborski | NYY | CHW | LAD | CIN | LAD | NYY | LAD |
| David Laurila | CLE | MIN | LAD | ATL | LAD | MIN | MIN |
| Dylan Higgins | TBR | OAK | SDP | CIN | SDP | OAK | OAK |
| Eric Longenhagen | TBR | MIN | LAD | CIN | LAD | TBR | LAD |
| Jake Mailhot | TBR | MIN | LAD | CIN | LAD | TBR | LAD |
| Jason Martinez | TBR | MIN | LAD | CIN | LAD | MIN | LAD |
| Jay Jaffe | TBR | MIN | LAD | CHC | LAD | TBR | LAD |
| Jeff Zimmerman | NYY | CHW | SDP | CIN | CIN | CHW | CHW |
| Jon Tayler | TBR | MIN | LAD | CHC | LAD | TBR | LAD |
| Meg Rowley | TBR | MIN | LAD | CIN | LAD | TBR | LAD |
| Michael Simione | TBR | CHW | LAD | CIN | CIN | TBR | TBR |
| Paul Sporer | CLE | HOU | SDP | CIN | CIN | CLE | CIN |
| Rachael McDaniel | TBR | MIN | LAD | CHC | LAD | TBR | LAD |
| Shelly Verougstraete | CLE | MIN | LAD | CIN | LAD | CLE | LAD |
| Tony Wolfe | CLE | CHW | SDP | ATL | SDP | CLE | SDP |
ALDS Series A: TB/TOR vs. CLE/NYY winners; ALDS Series B: OAK/CHW vs. MIN/HOU winners; NLDS Series A: LAD/MIL vs. SDP/STL winners; NLDS Series B : ATL/CIN vs. CHC/MIA winners
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
Everybody’s gonna feel pretty silly when the Astros sweep the playoffs! *ducks*
They’re off to a good start, already sweeping away the Twins.
I am legitimately surprised at the number of writers who picked the Reds over the Braves and the number who picked the Marlins over the Cubs. The Reds have excellent pitching but the offense is not very good. And while the Marlins and Cubs have comparably bad offenses the Marlins are going to have to get through Hendricks and Darvish.
I’m not saying it’s impossible, but I would put the Reds and Braves at 50/50 and the Cubs and Marlins at 80/20.
The Reds and the Cubs don’t have a great wRC+, but their xwOBAs are solidly average, and they’re two of the teams who got the most unlucky on batted balls according to Statcast data. Their offenses are both significantly better than the Marlins, and actually slightly better than the Rays and Astros, again according to xwOBA. The Reds’ offense was even better than the White Sox and As by that measure.
The Cubs and Reds played only Central teams, and of all the divisional pairs, the Central had by FAR the best pitching. Even if you look at expected stats to try to adjust for the highly correlated variance caused by the unbalanced schedule, the Cubs, Reds, and Brewers are all top ten pitching staffs in baseball. And the Pirates, while not a good team, had much better pitching than the other bad teams.
This is the old question–was it that the pitching was good or that the offense was bad? I’m of the mind that the offense was bad, but if that’s not true then these playoffs could get pretty interesting.
Interesting stuff on the Reds and Cubs and xwOBAs.
I feel like the Reds have an offense that is much better than they performed this year. Suarez had a 104 wRC+, but he had been 135 and 133 the last two seasons, and 128 over august/september. I get there are red flags with him, as he swings and misses pitches in the zone a ton, but he is closer to a 130 wrc than a 104. Same with Castellanos, and Moustakas. Then they have Aquino who certainly was a lot better than this last year (73wRC+) same with Senzel and Goodwin, who both were in the 50s range this year. Akiyama finally was able to catch up to a MLB fastball the last month of the season as well. I’d say more than any other team their bats underperformed this year. They also have a very good rotation. To me outside the Dodgers and Padres they could easily be the 3rd best team in the NL.
welp
Ditto, bone man.
Reds are the popular “upset” pick, and for good reason, but way too often overlooked is the Braves hit good pitching. Whether that’s driving up pitch counts to get starters out by the 5th, or beating up on the Aaron Nola and Garrett Cole’s of the baseball world. Heck even fangraphs own projections have Braves winning this series 63% of the time. As a Braves fan… I feel the hate here.
There does seem to be a certain amount of “well, I have to pick at least ONE upset or else it’s no fair” and this would pretty clearly be an upset.
You do realize that the Braves have only 2 good or even decent starting pitchers left, right? It’s a major possibility that the Reds could manage to win one of the first 2 games with their pitching and then beat up on them in Game 3.
The Braves skepticism is potent! I cannot blame anyone, they’ve lost 10 consecutive postseason series and have a glaring weakness (although one that will be muted in the first round), but I think the prognosticating consensus has sort of outrun the evidence here.
It’s more about the Cincinnati rotation than it is about the Braves (and their starting pitching).
Right, but I still think the evidence has been outrun. This is a great offense facing some great starters. The expectation should be that the Braves will score a moderate number of runs, not that Bauer and Castillo will find Acuña, Freeman, and Ozuna to be as easy to shut down as the likes of Bryant, Baez, and Rizzo.
Yet the expectation should also be that the Reds’ mediocre offense should score a moderate number of runs off the Braves’ 3rd starter if they can manage to push the series to 3 games.
I think the Braves are going to get slammed the moment they move to a longer series (and certainly in a best of 7) but in a 3-game series they could literally just get by on Fried and Anderson, which would be fine. So while it’s not crazy to pick the Reds over the Braves I am surprised how many did.
When you mention 10 consecutive series, you bring up a super interesting point. This obviously has no predictive value in whether they will win this one. What it does speak to is a bias that we as humans have, but it isn’t really relevant to the actual odds. Only the (less accurate) perceived odds that our brains cling to.
Right, I think that a lot of people have subconsciously relegated the Braves to a good regular season, hopeless in the postseason team. Certainly that’s how I think of them as a Braves fan. But really, Rich Aurilia homering off Tom Glavine in the 2002 NLDS has nothing at all to do with whether the Braves can take 2 of 3 off a decent but flawed team. Hell, even Freddie Freeman’s lackluster performance in last year’s NLDS with a messed-up wrist doesn’t tell us anything much worth knowing about the outcome of this series.
As a Braves fan I just want to see them win in the first round. Don’t want to see them win a Covid Season Title though.
As I was saying. Better to ask yourself “which team is better?” and go with that one.
So, out of the 10 writers who picked the Yankees to beat the Indians, 11 of them think the Yankees will play the Rays?
Edit: I see your table at the top has a miscount of the table at the bottom – Indians-Yankees should be 9:11, not 10:10.
According to the last table Brendan picked the Rays to beat the Yankees, but the Yankees to win the ALCS.
Most of you are missing one very important predictive element: global weather patterns.
This year, the Atlantic storm season has run through all the names on their list of storms and has gone to Greek letters. The last time that happened? 2005. Only Jeff seems aware of this.
Are you saying that the weather will create barometric conditions that will favor certain kinds of teams, or that the weather is a portent of future events?
Yes!
So then which teams get favored by bad weather?
As usual the Dodgers will disappoint and will lose to San Diego next round. Yankees can win the pennant as they’re easily the best team in the AL when healthy. Atlanta is going to beat Cincinnati and Miami will beat Chicago.
Nah, if the Dodgers beat the Brewers, then Kershaw is going to choke against the Cardinals like he usually does.
Let’s go Jeff Zimmerman!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Interesting that 65% of the writers picked the Dodgers to win the WS when they only have a 19.8% chance of winning. Granted that’s twice as high as the second place team (Braves at 9.8%) which makes the Dodgers by far the safest choice. Still, I’d expect a bit more diversity in selections. And only 20% picked an AL team, even though they have a 40%+ chance of winning.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/heres-who-is-going-to-win-the-2020-world-series-maybe/
That seems normal. “The field” is not a valid selection in an exercise like this, so when one team appears to be so far ahead of their competition, it’s natural for most people to pick them to win. They are in fact the favorite in each individual matchup.
Sure that’s why I mentioned that they’re the safe pick. But if you actually want to win and lord it over your colleagues, going with the safe pick ain’t gonna get it done. 🙂
Did anyone even try to take “the field”? I think it would be a sneaky slick move and would likely pay off.
If the Brewers beat the Dodgers, I would love to buy a Fangraphs tee shirt about how all 20 of you were wrong 😉
“Nobody believes in us! We can prove it empirically!” — The 2020 Milwaukee FanGraphs
Jeff Zimmerman you are a goddamn maniac. I salute you!
Brewers/Astros is the World Series matchup 2020 deserves.
Agreed. Cheetahs gonna cheat.
It’s 1965 all over again. Dodgers over Twinkies.
So the only thing we can say for sure is that the Dodgers and Rays are out in the first round
Blue Jays / Brewers world series going to be awesome. “Would you like maple syrup on your bratwurst?” mmmmm-mmmm.
It’s 2020 so we’re going to get the Astros beating the Brewers in the World Series.
Jeff Zimmerman is a legend
Cubs for the win to bookend this sh!tty presidency.
https://baseballanalyzed.com/2020/09/29/2020-playoffs-predictions/
Here.
The Reds? That’s…..weird
I’m surprised the Padres are considered such heavy favorites over the Cardinals with their 2 best starting pitchers out.
The padres really collapsed the last couple weeks.
-2 best starters are out
-Hosmer and Pham were injured and still probably not at 100% especially hosmer with the broken finger.
-tatis hit sub .250 the second half and cronenworth was bad too
Team probably did overperform the first half.