Here’s Who’s (Maybe) Going To Win the 2022 World Series
The expanded playoff format might have put an end to Game 163 tiebreakers, but this postseason still promises to deliver some great matchups, featuring division rivals, electric starters, fearsome bats, and multiple teams that finally put an end to long playoff droughts. And though the field boasts four 100-plus-win clubs that seem poised for deep runs, a lot can happen in a short series. That makes it difficult to predict how October will unfold, but 30 of our writers from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs did their best.
Below are our predictions by league and round, as well as each writer’s full forecast (those tables are sortable). Happy playoffs!
American League
Wild Card Series
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Wild Card Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays | 19 |
| Seattle Mariners | 11 |
Guardians vs. Rays Wild Card Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 19 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 11 |
Division Series
Astros vs. Blue Jays/Mariners Wild Card Winner Division Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 24 |
| Seattle Mariners | 3 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 3 |
Yankees vs. Guardians/Rays Wild Card Winner Division Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 23 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 6 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 1 |
Championship Series
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American League Championship Series Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees | 19 |
| Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians | 5 |
| New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays | 2 |
| New York Yankees vs. Seattle Mariners | 2 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 1 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Toronto Blue Jays | 1 |
American League Championship Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 20 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 3 |
| New York Yankees | 3 |
| Seattle Mariners | 3 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 1 |
National League
Wild Card Series
Mets vs. Padres Wild Card Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| New York Mets | 24 |
| San Diego Padres | 6 |
Cardinals vs. Phillies Wild Card Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Philadelphia Phillies | 20 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 10 |
Division Series
Dodgers vs. Mets/Padres Wild Card Winner Division Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 21 |
| New York Mets | 9 |
Braves vs. Cardinals/Phillies Wild Card Winner Division Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 27 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 2 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 1 |
Championship Series
National League Championship Series Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves | 20 |
| Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets | 7 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets | 1 |
| New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies | 1 |
National League Championship Series
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 13 |
| Atlanta Braves | 10 |
| New York Mets | 7 |
World Series
World Series Matchups
| Matchup | Votes |
|---|---|
| Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 7 |
| Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves | 7 |
| Houston Astros vs. New York Mets | 6 |
| New York Yankees vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 2 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. New York Mets | 1 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 1 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Atlanta Braves | 1 |
| New York Yankees vs. Atlanta Braves | 1 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Atlanta Braves | 1 |
World Series Champion
| Winner | Votes |
|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 12 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 6 |
| New York Mets | 5 |
| Atlanta Braves | 2 |
| Cleveland Guardians | 2 |
| New York Yankees | 2 |
| Seattle Mariners | 1 |
Writer Predictions
2022 FanGraphs Staff Playoff Predictions: AL
| Writer | CLE/TBR WC | TOR/SEA WC | NYY/WC DS | HOU/WC DS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | CLE | TOR | CLE | HOU |
| Alex Eisert | TBR | TOR | NYY | HOU |
| Alex Sonty | CLE | TOR | NYY | HOU |
| Ariel Cohen | TBR | SEA | NYY | HOU |
| Ben Clemens | TBR | TOR | NYY | HOU |
| Chad Young | CLE | SEA | NYY | HOU |
| Chris Gilligan | CLE | TOR | NYY | HOU |
| Dan Szymborski | TBR | TOR | NYY | HOU |
| David Laurila | CLE | SEA | CLE | HOU |
| Davy Andrews | CLE | TOR | CLE | TOR |
| Dylan Higgins | TBR | SEA | TBR | SEA |
| Eric Longenhagen | CLE | TOR | CLE | HOU |
| Esteban Rivera | CLE | TOR | NYY | TOR |
| Jake Mailhot | CLE | SEA | NYY | SEA |
| Jason Martinez | CLE | SEA | NYY | SEA |
| Jay Jaffe | CLE | TOR | NYY | HOU |
| Jeff Zimmerman | TBR | SEA | NYY | HOU |
| Jon Becker | CLE | SEA | NYY | HOU |
| Jon Tayler | CLE | SEA | CLE | HOU |
| Justin Choi | TBR | TOR | NYY | HOU |
| Justin Mason | CLE | TOR | NYY | HOU |
| Kyle Kishimoto | TBR | TOR | NYY | HOU |
| Leo Morgenstern | TBR | TOR | NYY | TOR |
| Lucas Kelly | CLE | SEA | NYY | HOU |
| Meg Rowley | CLE | TOR | NYY | HOU |
| Michael Baumann | TBR | TOR | NYY | HOU |
| Mike Podhorzer | TBR | TOR | NYY | HOU |
| Nicklaus Gaut | CLE | SEA | NYY | HOU |
| Paul Sporer | CLE | TOR | CLE | HOU |
| Tess Taruskin | CLE | TOR | NYY | HOU |
2022 FanGraphs Staff Playoff Predictions: NL
| Writer | STL/PHI WC | NYM/SDP WC | ATL/WC DS | LAD/WC DS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | PHI | SDP | ATL | LAD |
| Alex Eisert | PHI | NYM | ATL | LAD |
| Alex Sonty | STL | NYM | ATL | LAD |
| Ariel Cohen | PHI | NYM | ATL | NYM |
| Ben Clemens | PHI | NYM | PHI | NYM |
| Chad Young | PHI | SDP | ATL | LAD |
| Chris Gilligan | PHI | SDP | ATL | LAD |
| Dan Szymborski | PHI | NYM | ATL | NYM |
| David Laurila | STL | SDP | ATL | LAD |
| Davy Andrews | PHI | NYM | ATL | LAD |
| Dylan Higgins | PHI | SDP | ATL | LAD |
| Eric Longenhagen | PHI | SDP | ATL | LAD |
| Esteban Rivera | STL | NYM | ATL | LAD |
| Jake Mailhot | PHI | NYM | ATL | LAD |
| Jason Martinez | PHI | NYM | ATL | NYM |
| Jay Jaffe | STL | NYM | ATL | LAD |
| Jeff Zimmerman | PHI | NYM | PHI | LAD |
| Jon Becker | PHI | NYM | ATL | NYM |
| Jon Tayler | PHI | NYM | ATL | LAD |
| Justin Choi | PHI | NYM | ATL | LAD |
| Justin Mason | STL | NYM | STL | NYM |
| Kyle Kishimoto | PHI | NYM | ATL | LAD |
| Leo Morgenstern | PHI | NYM | ATL | LAD |
| Lucas Kelly | STL | NYM | ATL | LAD |
| Meg Rowley | STL | NYM | ATL | LAD |
| Michael Baumann | PHI | NYM | ATL | LAD |
| Mike Podhorzer | STL | NYM | ATL | LAD |
| Nicklaus Gaut | PHI | NYM | ATL | NYM |
| Paul Sporer | STL | NYM | ATL | NYM |
| Tess Taruskin | STL | NYM | ATL | NYM |
2022 FanGraphs Staff Playoff Predictions: CS and World Series
| Writer | ALCS | NLCS | WS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Chamberlain | CLE | LAD | CLE |
| Alex Eisert | NYY | LAD | NYY |
| Alex Sonty | HOU | ATL | HOU |
| Ariel Cohen | HOU | NYM | NYM |
| Ben Clemens | HOU | NYM | NYM |
| Chad Young | HOU | LAD | LAD |
| Chris Gilligan | HOU | ATL | HOU |
| Dan Szymborski | HOU | NYM | NYM |
| David Laurila | HOU | LAD | HOU |
| Davy Andrews | CLE | LAD | CLE |
| Dylan Higgins | SEA | LAD | SEA |
| Eric Longenhagen | CLE | ATL | ATL |
| Esteban Rivera | NYY | ATL | NYY |
| Jake Mailhot | SEA | ATL | ATL |
| Jason Martinez | SEA | NYM | NYM |
| Jay Jaffe | HOU | LAD | LAD |
| Jeff Zimmerman | HOU | LAD | HOU |
| Jon Becker | HOU | NYM | HOU |
| Jon Tayler | HOU | ATL | HOU |
| Justin Choi | HOU | LAD | HOU |
| Justin Mason | HOU | NYM | NYM |
| Kyle Kishimoto | HOU | LAD | LAD |
| Leo Morgenstern | TOR | LAD | LAD |
| Lucas Kelly | NYY | LAD | LAD |
| Meg Rowley | HOU | ATL | HOU |
| Michael Baumann | HOU | ATL | HOU |
| Mike Podhorzer | HOU | LAD | LAD |
| Nicklaus Gaut | HOU | ATL | HOU |
| Paul Sporer | HOU | NYM | HOU |
| Tess Taruskin | HOU | ATL | HOU |
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
Why do you all hate my favorite team??
Dylan Higgins… my man!
Mets voters are POT COMMITTED
25 out of 30 picking HOU, LAD, NYM or NYY, which I guess makes sense. But I am surprised only 2 picked the Braves. Not that I think they are going to win, but they have better odds than both the Yankees and the Mets. Is it the idea of a repeat that people are staying away from?
I would absolutely pick the Braves over the Mets, given that the Mets have to get out of the division series first and otherwise they seem fairly evenly matched.
Pretty idiotic to pick the Mets over the Braves really. Taking 2 of 3 is never a given. The Nats could take 2 of 3 from the Dodgers at a given time. People who specialize in math and data driven analysis should know better.
Oh, then you have to win 3 of 5 from the Dodgers with the first 2 at Dodger stadium and do so without your best 2 pitchers.
Last year saw a team with one of the the lowest odds to win the playoffs basically running the table. It happens. But usually we see a return to the norm the following year. While I would love to see my Braves buck the trend once again, I think a Dodgers Astros match up is our most likely outcome.
Also, as a Braves fan, I’m irrationally terrified of having to face the Cardinals in a best of 5 series.
To be fair, anyone is scary in a 5 game series.
October 9, 2019, convinced me that Cardinals Devil Magic is real.
Last years Braves team had a pythag of 94 wins, the 3rd highest (after the Giants and Dodgers) SRS in the NL, and played .611 ball in the second half. They were a very good team, not an underdog miracle.
We really should weigh recent performance more when coming into the playoffs.
Last season FanGraphs writers had a lower batting average than Bill Bergen swinging a garden hose so just keep that in mind when reading this lol
Last season was one of the exceptions that prove the rule type post-seasons. Fangraphs were not unique in getting a lot of picks wrong.
A bit surprised the staff is leaning Phillies over Cards in the WC round … feel like the narrative all year is that the Phillies aren’t a well-rounded team. I also am of the opinion the Cards are just better on paper. We’ll see what happens
The Phillies aren’t a well-rounded team. They’ve got a couple great starters, though, which is more than the Cardinals have. In a three game series, having 5 good starting pitchers doesn’t help when facing two aces.
Cards aren’t well rounded either, but they play in a dogshit division.
Still hating on the orioles
90% of the staff picking the Braves to win their division series seems way too high when compared to the other picks (even if it’s only that 90% each think the Braves have a 55% chance to win that series). 80% of the staff picked Cincinnati over the Braves in 2020 and 93% picked Milwaukee over the Braves in 2021, so maybe this is an overreaction to those picks.
Cincy and Milwaukee had perceived better starters in a short series. ATL also gets the advantage of their opponents top 2 pitchers out until game 3 this year. So the calculus is different.
All the Mets picks are truly puzzling.
Yeah, it’s probably Astros vs Dodgers but I am kind of hopeful we’ll see some real underdog stories come out. And with that, I give you the world champion Seattle Mariners, topping the Atlanta Braves in 7. See you on the flip side.
Everything going according to plan…
Assuming the Mariners get eliminated by Houston, I’m jumping on the Guardians train for a few reasons. #1, Steven Kwan, who is just fun to watch play the kind of baseball I most enjoy. #2, longest World Series drought now that the famously “cursed” teams have won. #3, with the name change and the elimination of the associated iconography, I can cheer for them in good conscience. #4, if they do win, then we can establish the (completely nonsensical) narrative that they were cursed, by that name and iconography, and eliminating that lifted the curse. And #5, they’re facing the Yankees and then (presumably) the Astros. Who’s not on board to cheer for them against those teams?
Yankees and Astros fans, presumably.
Congratulations to Chad Young on being the only staff member whose predictions survived the wild card round!
I feel like these results always get misinterpreted. If Fangraphs asked their team “will the top card of a shuffled deck of cards be a face card, or a number card?” and 100 out of 100 writers said “a number card”, people freak out saying “Fangraphs thinks there is NO CHANCE a face card comes up!” That’s not how this works!