All the Affordable Right-Handed Power, By the Projections

Recently, in the wake of Oakland’s deal with Billy Butler for three years and $30 million, Dave Cameron wrote about right-handed power and — as that Butler deal, along with Michael Cuddyer’s before it, appeared to illustrate — the lengths to which teams are prepared to go this offseason towards acquiring it.

If those lengths were not entirely obvious before, they’ve certainly become more so today, the Seattle Mariners having signed corner-outfield and DH-type Nelson Cruz to a four-year, $58 million deal. While there’s little debate about the quality of Cruz’s 2014 season, it’s also true that he (a) averaged about a 1.5 WAR per season between 2011 and -13 and (b) is projected to produce a similar total in 2015. It’s not unreasonable to conclude, after accounting for age-related decline, that the Mariners are paying Cruz something like $14-$20 million per win.

It seems like there should be more affordable options than that for right-handed batters with above-average power. Dave Cameron, for example, identified Washington’s Tyler Moore — on the club’s 40-man roster, but unlikely to occupy anything like a regular role with the Nationals — as a possible target for those teams searching for economical alternatives to Butler and Cruz, et al.

In what follows, I’ve attempted to identify other possible examples of that more affordable right-handed power. Utilizing the Steamer projections, I’ve searched for players who are either a (a) free agents or (b) currently employed by a club but considered neither a starter nor a prospect and who are projected by Steamer to record the following numbers in 2015 per 600 plate appearances:

  • Twenty-plus home runs; and
  • A 100 wRC+ or better; and
  • A 0.0 WAR or better.

I’ve also included switch hitters, because they’re not not right handed. Not included here are non-starters Yoenis Cespedes or Steven Souza, because they carry value above and beyond the sort of player of interest here.

The results are as follows:

Name PA HR AVG OBP SLG wRC+ Off Def WAR
Kyle Blanks 600 20 .247 .320 .415 111 7.9 -9.5 1.9
Jesus Montero 600 22 .260 .314 .436 113 6.9 -16.7 1.1
Tyler Moore 600 22 .246 .308 .424 104 2.4 -10.8 1.0
Chris Colabello 600 20 .251 .313 .415 105 2.5 -12.5 1.0
Andrew Brown 600 20 .232 .301 .396 100 -0.2 -9.1 0.9
Justin Smoak 600 21 .240 .324 .414 106 1.8 -13.9 0.8
Corey Hart 600 22 .252 .317 .435 111 6.3 -18.8 0.7
Mark Reynolds 600 26 .216 .310 .409 103 1.1 -15.6 0.4
Kendrys Morales 600 20 .259 .316 .421 106 1.4 -16.2 0.4
Michael Morse 600 23 .260 .313 .444 112 4.7 -20.9 0.3

One finds that Cameron’s original example, Tyler Moore, meets the criteria used here. First among all players, however, is Kyle Blanks, recently DFA’d by Oakland. Blanks has dealt with health issues for much of his major-league career, indicating that 600 plate appearances is a lot to expect from him. The projections are probably more optimistic than many front offices about the probability of Jesus Montero matching the numbers published here. While he’s recorded 200 major-league innings as an outfielder, Minnesota’s Chris Colabello is probably more well suited to a first-base or DH role. Joe Mauer plays the former for the Twins; Kennys Vargas, it would appear, the latter. Andrew Brown profiles as an average corner outfielder. He’s produced only an 81 wRC+ in 362 plate appearances, but Steamer is more optimistic about his future — likely owing to Brown’s impressive minor-league resume. Like Blanks above, he was also recently DFA’d by Oakland. Toronto recently claimed Justin Smoak off waivers. The trade of Adam Lind to Milwaukee might allow him some playing time as the Blue Jays’ DH, but that’s not a certainty. The remaining four players — Corey Hart, Kendrys Morales, Michael Morse, and Mark Reynolds — are all available via free agency.

Opening the pool of candidates to those right-handed power hitters who’ve most recently played in Japan, one finds three more options — all of whom, the author can confirm, would cost less than $57 million or its equivalent in trade:

Name PA HR AVG OBP SLG wRC+ Off Def WAR
Mauro Gomez 600 23 .259 .312 .452 110 6.1 -7.8 1.9
Brad Eldred 600 27 .247 .297 .453 108 4.2 -9.0 1.6
Ernesto Mejia 600 24 .246 .299 .432 104 2.1 -10.0 1.1





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Goyo
9 years ago

Amusing that you did not point out that five of these talents were recently Mariners. We were cornering the market on cheap ineffective DHs. May those dark days fade in the rearview like the burnt out streetlights of innocence. Or Tacoma.

Balthazar
9 years ago
Reply to  Goyo

My exact first thought. We can’t say that the Mariners Front Office hasn’t creatively scraped the barrel to find big, thick, bats with right-handed boof. It’s just that a) most of these guys are at least highly consistent, b) most of them aren’t still very good mindless projections be damned, and c) Nelson Cruz now can be a far more expensive iteration of the same; or not.

Again, I’d love for the Ms to swing a fair deal for Souza. To me, he’s simply in another tier from the rest of these hulks.

Balthazar
9 years ago
Reply to  Balthazar

“highly inconsistent”