Looking In at Juan Soto’s Career Projections
Earlier this week, when Juan Soto agreed to a 15-year, $765 million contract with the New York Mets, I included a projection chart with some very pretty numbers. Now that the dust has settled on the seismic signing, I think it would be interesting to look a little bit deeper at Soto’s long-term projections, which reflect his possible place in baseball history beyond his immediate impact on the Mets.
This time, I’m including the full rest-of-career projections for Soto, along with the career totals should the projections be shockingly — and unrealistically — inaccurate.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | .276 | .426 | .521 | 528 | 108 | 146 | 26 | 2 | 33 | 100 | 137 | 109 | 7 | 167 | 6.2 |
| 2026 | .274 | .427 | .518 | 525 | 109 | 144 | 25 | 2 | 33 | 98 | 140 | 106 | 7 | 167 | 6.2 |
| 2027 | .274 | .430 | .513 | 522 | 108 | 143 | 25 | 2 | 32 | 96 | 143 | 104 | 7 | 167 | 6.2 |
| 2028 | .271 | .429 | .505 | 521 | 107 | 141 | 25 | 2 | 31 | 93 | 144 | 103 | 6 | 164 | 6.0 |
| 2029 | .263 | .424 | .481 | 520 | 105 | 137 | 24 | 1 | 29 | 90 | 145 | 103 | 5 | 157 | 5.5 |
| 2030 | .261 | .421 | .472 | 521 | 103 | 136 | 24 | 1 | 28 | 88 | 144 | 103 | 5 | 153 | 5.2 |
| 2031 | .259 | .418 | .464 | 522 | 101 | 135 | 24 | 1 | 27 | 86 | 143 | 104 | 5 | 150 | 4.9 |
| 2032 | .258 | .417 | .457 | 523 | 99 | 135 | 24 | 1 | 26 | 85 | 142 | 104 | 4 | 148 | 4.7 |
| 2033 | .256 | .414 | .448 | 524 | 96 | 134 | 24 | 1 | 25 | 83 | 141 | 105 | 4 | 145 | 4.4 |
| 2034 | .255 | .412 | .442 | 525 | 94 | 134 | 24 | 1 | 24 | 81 | 140 | 107 | 3 | 143 | 4.2 |
| 2035 | .254 | .409 | .437 | 512 | 90 | 130 | 23 | 1 | 23 | 77 | 134 | 105 | 3 | 141 | 3.9 |
| 2036 | .248 | .402 | .416 | 469 | 78 | 116 | 20 | 1 | 19 | 67 | 120 | 97 | 2 | 133 | 2.9 |
| 2037 | .244 | .395 | .404 | 423 | 68 | 103 | 18 | 1 | 16 | 58 | 106 | 88 | 2 | 128 | 2.2 |
| 2038 | .244 | .394 | .401 | 381 | 59 | 93 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 51 | 94 | 80 | 1 | 127 | 1.9 |
| 2039 | .242 | .390 | .393 | 343 | 52 | 83 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 44 | 83 | 73 | 1 | 124 | 1.4 |
| 2040 | .239 | .385 | .383 | 306 | 44 | 73 | 12 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 72 | 65 | 1 | 119 | 1.0 |
| Career | .266 | .416 | .481 | 10946 | 2076 | 2917 | 527 | 35 | 583 | 1826 | 2797 | 2252 | 121 | 151 | 103.2 |
Suffice it to say, that’s a line that would lead to an obvious Hall of Fame election during his first year on the ballot. Soto’s long-term projections have shot up quite a bit the last two seasons after his relative slump a couple years ago. After 2022, the season he was traded to the Padres, he dipped to a 146 wRC+ and 3.7 WAR — good enough numbers for the vast majority of the baseball world, but they felt a little underwhelming considering his earlier trajectory. After all, Soto is one of the few players to ever get Ted Williams as one of their near-age offensive comps.
This projection puts him right on pace to get to 3,000 hits, at just below a coin flip (43%). Among active players, only Freddie Freeman projects to finish with more career hits (3,012, 52% at 3,000). It’s also the first time Soto has hit the century mark in projected WAR. Just for fun, here’s a look at the projected career WAR leaders among active players from a decade ago, before 2015.
| Player | Final WAR | Actual WAR |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Rodriguez | 113.6 | 113.6 |
| Mike Trout | 100.8 | 85.7 |
| Albert Pujols | 95.2 | 89.9 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 85.9 | 52.5 |
| Buster Posey | 85.0 | 57.9 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 76.9 | 68.8 |
| Derek Jeter | 73.4 | 73.0 |
| Evan Longoria | 73.3 | 55.1 |
| Yadier Molina | 70.5 | 55.6 |
| David Wright | 70.1 | 51.3 |
| Chase Utley | 68.0 | 61.5 |
| Troy Tulowitzki | 65.9 | 37.8 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 63.8 | 44.8 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 63.7 | 42.5 |
| Russell Martin | 62.5 | 54.5 |
| Bryce Harper | 61.4 | 52.5 |
| Brian McCann | 60.0 | 52.1 |
| Manny Machado | 58.9 | 53.6 |
| Hanley Ramirez | 57.9 | 41.8 |
| Ichiro Suzuki | 57.6 | 57.5 |
And here’s how it looks today.
| Player | WAR |
|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 103.2 |
| Mike Trout | 95.6 |
| Aaron Judge | 82.4 |
| Julio Rodríguez | 80.5 |
| Mookie Betts | 79.3 |
| Francisco Lindor | 79.2 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 76.4 |
| Freddie Freeman | 73.0 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 70.0 |
| José Ramírez | 68.3 |
| Gunnar Henderson | 66.9 |
| Shohei Ohtani | 66.8 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 65.3 |
| Jose Altuve | 65.0 |
| Bryce Harper | 64.7 |
| Manny Machado | 64.2 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 63.5 |
| Jackson Merrill | 62.6 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 62.4 |
| Corbin Carroll | 59.1 |
Note that the Ohtani projection is only as a hitter.
Overall, Soto’s career projections give him a JAWS score of 74.4 – ZiPS projects JAWS natively these days – enough to rank him as the seventh-best right fielder in baseball history, sandwiched between Roberto Clemente and Al Kaline.
Those 583 projected home runs are the most among active players as well, giving Soto the best chance — a very slim shot — at reaching the career totals of Babe Ruth (714, 2%), Henry Aaron (755, 0.62%), and Barry Bonds (762, 0.55%). Soto is one of only three current hitters projected to finish with more than 500 homers; the other two, Judge and Ohtani, are both projected to finish at 549.
And since we’re saber-nerds, Soto is projected to seize the all-time walks record from Bonds. What’s even more shocking is that Soto’s projected walk total (2,797) is nearly double the projected total of Harper, who ranks second of the projected leaderboard among active players, with 1,489 walks. Soto also paces the all-time walks leaderboard for players through their age-25 season — by 99!
| Name | BB |
|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 769 |
| Mickey Mantle | 670 |
| Mel Ott | 622 |
| Eddie Yost | 620 |
| Bryce Harper | 585 |
| Mike Trout | 571 |
| Eddie Mathews | 561 |
| Jimmie Foxx | 556 |
| Rickey Henderson | 520 |
| John McGraw | 518 |
| Harlond Clift | 498 |
| Ted Williams | 495 |
| Donie Bush | 468 |
| Arky Vaughan | 466 |
| Adam Dunn | 462 |
| Joe Kelley | 445 |
| Rusty Staub | 433 |
| Elbie Fletcher | 427 |
| Ken Griffey Jr. | 426 |
| Willie Randolph | 425 |
So, will this all come true? Probably not. But Juan Soto is a special hitter who is tremendously accomplished for a hitter still only in his mid-20s. There’s a reason that many of the wealthiest teams were bidding obscene amounts of money to get him.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
nice article,out of sheer laziness I would’ve just slapped Joey Votto’s career starting at age 26 as a projection and seeing who i would’ve fooled.
That would have been quite a disappointing career for Juan Soto, barely finishing with more than 500 homers.
I think I’m going to take the under on most of the guys on the Pre-2025 list. The big exception is Mookie since he’s only 20 WAR short of that number, but I just don’t trust Trout, Judge, Rodriguez, Acuna, or even Soto to stay that healthy.
I also think ZiPS might be getting a little ahead of itself with Elly De La Cruz and Jackson Merrill. That’s a super aggressive projection even though both are coming off of very good seasons.
The three guys I could see totally blowing past that number are Bobby Witt Jr, Betts, and Bryce Harper. Harper is only something like 12 WAR short of that number and he put up 5 wins last year. And he’s under team control for the next 6 years or something. Betts is only about 20 WAR short of that number and he’s still producing. And Witt…I don’t know what to make of Witt. What he did last year was ludicrous and didn’t even look that fluky. Error bars on him are huge but I think his “tail” of extreme high-end outcomes (80+ WAR for his career) is a bit fatter than one would expect.
JRam’s “only” 17 wins out and he’s still producing!
I mean, Judge was definitely healthier and better than Mookie this season, and is 30 short. I would probably put the two of them both around 75 when all is said and done though.
Seems like the majority of the underperformers had significant injuries that a) decreased their availability, b) decreased their performance.
IDK seems like ZIPS does an incredible job projecting Yankees…only missed A-Rods & Jeter’s combined WAR by 0.4…..jokes aside, I don’t think Judge gets to 80 because at some point he’ll need to DH to keep him in the lineup. And with the DH penalty for WAR, I think he’ll have some good seasons at the plate, but the WAR won’t stack like it does with him in CF.
At some point soon I think Judge is going to break down physically but since I already think he’s a Hall of Famer I’m just going to enjoy this as long as I can.
Harper playing competent 1B now should help a bit too by reducing how much he was losing in OF and assumed DH positional adjustments. If (the proverbial if) he can stay on the field for 130+, I think he gets close to 70. 52.5 now, let’s say 57.5 next year, and then 13 more over 5+ years… Yeah, I think so.
I disagree that all this won’t come true. It absolutely will
Steve? Is that you?
So…what the 80th percentile career WAR/HR/hits projection? How ridiculous can this get?
Love this, but what should we make of the fact that ZiPS overrated pretty much everyone on the 2015 list?
Not TOO much. Looking at different career projections, this was an unusually poor group in ZiPS. 21-40 OVERperformed as a group!-
Also, the list does better if I *re* project with the current model rather than the decade old one. There’s been a lot of work into the long-term modeling since back then.
This is what I was wondering when I saw the chart. I’d be fascinated to see how different they look if you redo the projections now. Not even as it relates to Soto. I’m just curious about how projections have changed over time, especially for guys who are generally in some way outliers.
I’d also be curious to see the reprojection with the new ZiPS.
Out of curiosity, do you have measurements of the error going forward with projections for multiple years? The chained errors eventually outweigh any meaningful signal in the projection, and I’m curious when that is.
Is the pre-2015 chart suggesting that EVERY SINGLE player performed on or under their projected career WAR? Even accounting for the fact that these are the guys with the highest projections (more downside room than upside I suppose), that’s pretty shocking, no?
By these projections, it looks like he’s expected to be very close to breaking the times-reaching-base (or numerator-of-OBP) record as well?
Thanks for this man its gonna be fun to see two top players in todays game (and future hall of famers), in Lindor and Soto play together for at the next five years.
Lindor has a decent chance at winding up as the 5th best SS all time by WAR. He needs 23 to pass Bill Dahlen.
I don’t think he passes George Davis, which would take 30 more. But it’s not impossible at all.
15 wins over the next 3 years and then 15 over the final 8.
I’m a fan of baseball history. I really am. But I could not tell you one thing about the two individuals you just mentioned.
I’m assuming they used to tussle with ol’ Hoss Radbourn.
Both names rang only the vaguest of bells for me as well so I had to go look. They were born in the same year! 1870.
Curious as Zips projection on Chourio. If he’s as good as he was June-end of the season, given his defense and hitting, seems like 60 WAR would be possible.
I could consume hitter career WAR projections literally every single day. I’ll settle for every offseason. Dan, please don’t ever go another ten years again without giving us this chart.
Is there something squirrelly about projecting 15 individual seasons into the future? These may be the median outcomes for each individual season, but there’s no way anyone wouldn’t bet on Soto missing a decent chunk of time at some point in the next 13 seasons. How many players go from age 26-38 without having a single season for which they don’t qualify.
Soto’s been very healthy but despite what some weirdos say, he has in fact been very young. He’s still not old, but halfway through this deal he will be. I’d bet hard on the under. Look at all those guys from 2015. The main reason they fell way short was injury. As many of us know, myself included, getting old sucks for your body.
Nothing squirrely, but yes the error bars are larger the further out you go. The projections are based on aging curves from actual player histories!
Set realistic expectations for how accurate you expect these to be is the name of the game. They’re not perfect, but “take all of baseball history and rigourosly apply statistical techniques to normalize for just about any factor shown to contain signal about the future” is the best approach we have.
Put another way – the future isn’t certain. Statistics help us understand how uncertain it might be, based on everything we measure today.
But is this projecting a career or is combining 15 individual seasons and just adding them together? I feel like both of these can be true at once: this projection is as good as any if you’re looking for a median projection for Soto in year X, *but* if you simulated a median projection for his entire career the playing time numbers would be lower. There’s a lot more downside than upside in the playing time variance for a given year, and given 15 years, most on the wrong side of 30, there’s a good chance a couple hit way below. Again, if anyone wants to bet on Soto’s plate appearances the next twelve years at 8100, I’ll take the under on this and give you 5-1 odds.*
*this is obviously a rhetorical offer.
That McCutchen projection makes me so, so sad.
Prime Cutch was beautiful to watch.
I’ve got faith he’ll be McGriffed.
When it happens, I’ll think he got in before more deserving players did…and I’ll be really goddamn happy.
He doesn’t need to be McGriff, apparently, his fellow Pirates outfielder who’s clearly a lesser player just got in!
Soto is projected for about 8100 plate appearance age 26-37 (6212 AB plus 1779 walks, and I threw in 109 extra plate appearances for HBP and SF).
In the history of baseball, six players have done that. Two barely did. So Soto’s median projection is to be about one of the five healthiest players since the beginning of the 162-game schedule (all six and the next four guys are from after it, the only three of those ten that didn’t play at least one game in the 21st century were Lou Brock, Billy Williams, and the leader by far, Pete Rose.
I would much sooner buy Soto being one of the best five players since the 162-game schedule than that his median projection is being one of the top five healthiest. Yes, work stoppages knocked a few guys back (notably Ripken) and of course you have to be a great player to last as a desired starter through age 37, but that still seems like a crazy median projection.
Again, it makes me wonder about how useful Zips is to count up entire careers, as opposed to projecting individual seasons. Would love to hear thoughts on this.
I am still amazed we didn’t sign him for life!
There was no universe in which he wasn’t going to free agency. It’s very clear in hindsight that the Nationals made the right decision in trading him.
I wonder what it would have taken. $600 million?
Ted Williams…Roberto Clemente…Al Kaline…Ruth/Aaron/Bonds.
Pretty much every comp in this article made me giggle.
Yes! It is amazing to see a player like this. Regardless of who he plays for, this is great!
Kind of sad that neither Nolan Arenado or Paul Goldschmidt are projected to end up with 60 WAR any more. I’m also guessing that at least at some point in their careers Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Trea Turner, and Alex Bregman were projected for 60 WAR, but they have all fallen off the pace.
Also, I wonder which active catcher ZiPS thinks will finish with the highest career WAR?
Grandal is the leader in the clubhouse with 40.0 WAR, and Realmuto at 34.8 has a chance to pass him. After that there is a big drop, but I’d give Will Smith the best shot beyond those two. Maybe William Contreras? Rutschman is older than it seems so I don’t think he’d have enough time to make up the ground. Don’t know what ZiPS says, but I’d be interested in finding out!
Mike Trout projects for only 10 more WAR for his career.