The Colorado Rockies have been rumored for a month-plus to be on the verge of signing a free-agent closer who used to pitch for the Kansas City Royals. Today, they did just that — but it’s not the reliever you might have thought. Instead of re-signing Greg Holland, they opted to add Wade Davis to the fold. Jeff Passan reports:

On its own, there’s a lot to consider here — and that’s without even accounting for the terms of the deal and what those terms mean for the Rockies. Once again, Passan:

This can really only go one of two ways. The first possible outcome — and the one that’s more probable — is that it blows up in Colorado’s face, becoming a cautionary tale like the Mike Hampton–Denny Neagle signing spree of Dec. 2000. The second is that the Rockies are on to something here. Yes, they may have just assembled the most expensive bullpen in history — certainly it will be one of the most expensive — but they have the opportunity to ride with that for this year at least because of all the minimum-contract pitchers they have.

Of the six Rockies starting pitchers projected to throw 100 innings this season, only Chad Bettis will make more than the league minimum, and Matt Swartz estimates he’ll only make $1.5 million in arbitration. So, the Rockies certainly won’t have the most expensive pitching staff in baseball history. Interestingly, all three of the relievers the Rockies have signed this winter — Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, and now Davis — have vesting options for 2021. If all three vest, that could prove problematic for Colorado. That’s a consideration for a longer post, however.

As for Davis, specifically, the Rockies have purchased what in all likelihood is a declining asset but still a very good pitcher. When a 2.30 ERA is the worst you’ve posted in four seasons, you’re pretty good. The super bullpen the Rockies are trying to build may give Rockies manager Bud Black an opportunity to space out Davis’s appearances and keep him fresh. Only time will tell.

The projections are still slightly bearish on the Rockies’ chances, particularly thanks to lackluster projections for both first base and left field, but given the plethora of young players on the team, the beta on that projection is still likely pretty wide. (Former) top prospects like David Dahl and Ryan McMahon could improve that forecast in a hurry if they earn playing time and break out, and Tyler Anderson and Kyle Freeland in particular look like they could have room to grow. Perhaps most importantly, projection systems still don’t seem to know what to do with Charlie Blackmon. After recording 4.1 and 6.5 WAR in each of the past two seasons, Blackmon is pegged for slightly more than two wins this year. Such a conservative projection is certainly level-headed, but few will be surprised if Blackmon doubles that forecast.

In other words, the Rockies, as ever, are confounding. Their performance will ultimately ride on the young players they’ve assembled. With the super bullpen they’ve tried to build this winter, however, they’re setting up a scenario in which every lead that those young players generate becomes a safe one. In the process, they’re striking down the myth that free-agent pitchers won’t sign up to play in Denver.