Yankees Sign Max Fried to Eight-Year, $218 Million Deal
After missing out on Blake Snell and losing a Juan Soto bidding war to their crosstown rivals, the Yankees landed a big free agent on Tuesday, signing left-handed pitcher Max Fried to an eight-year contract worth $218 million. Fried, a first-round pick in 2012 for the Padres, had spent his entire MLB career with the Atlanta Braves after being one of the big-name prospects included in the 2014 Justin Upton trade. Fried’s contract contains no opt-outs or elevator clauses or any fancy deferral schemes to bring down the total money. The Yankees are opening their wallets to pay one of the best pitchers available a whole lot of cash. Fried’s contract is the largest for a left-handed pitcher in baseball history.
After Fried was limited to just 14 starts in 2023 due to hamstring and forearm injuries, as well as a blister on his index finger, the lefty returned to the mound last season and pitched well enough and stayed healthy enough to max out his deal in free agency. Enough is the key here because, for the second straight season, Fried missed time with a forearm injury. The more recent one, which was diagnosed as ulnar neuritis, cost him a handful of starts in July, but he returned to the rotation the first week of August. He finished the regular season strong, posting a 2.99 FIP across his final 11 starts, though he faltered against the Padres in his lone playoff appearance. All told, Fried had a solid platform season, with a 3.25 ERA and 3.33 FIP in 174 1/3 innings over 29 starts, good for 3.4 WAR and peripherals right in line with his career numbers.
If I didn’t include the eight-year projections, some of you might picket my house and eat the local chili in vengeance, so here we go.
| Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12 | 8 | 3.43 | 27 | 27 | 162.7 | 141 | 62 | 15 | 48 | 147 | 120 | 3.1 |
| 2026 | 11 | 7 | 3.59 | 26 | 26 | 153.0 | 137 | 61 | 15 | 45 | 135 | 115 | 2.7 |
| 2027 | 10 | 7 | 3.76 | 25 | 25 | 146.0 | 135 | 61 | 16 | 44 | 125 | 110 | 2.3 |
| 2028 | 9 | 8 | 3.95 | 23 | 23 | 134.3 | 129 | 59 | 16 | 42 | 113 | 104 | 1.8 |
| 2029 | 8 | 8 | 4.13 | 22 | 22 | 128.7 | 129 | 59 | 16 | 43 | 105 | 100 | 1.4 |
| 2030 | 7 | 7 | 4.43 | 19 | 19 | 111.7 | 117 | 55 | 15 | 41 | 88 | 93 | 0.9 |
| 2031 | 6 | 6 | 4.66 | 17 | 17 | 96.7 | 104 | 50 | 14 | 37 | 74 | 89 | 0.6 |
| 2032 | 4 | 6 | 4.93 | 14 | 14 | 76.7 | 83 | 42 | 12 | 32 | 57 | 84 | 0.2 |
I’m actually a bit surprised at the bearishness of the projections; ZiPS is thinking he’s worth $120 million, which is shockingly low to me. Most likely it’s from a few things. ZiPS is likely seeing something similar to what’s reflected in his xERA, which was 3.64 last season, and his contact-against numbers have declined a bit. Also complicating matters are Fried’s four IL stints over the past two years — which are keeping his projected inning totals fairly conservative. Beyond that, ZiPS has a lot more excitement for Snell’s upside than it does for Fried’s steadiness. I tend to be more optimistic than ZiPS here.
Even if Fried falls short of being the 1B to Gerrit Cole’s 1A in the rotation, some kind of signing here was necessary for the Yankees after they lost out on Snell and failed to retain Soto. Sure, the rotation wasn’t the team’s biggest problem entering the offseason, but it wasn’t exactly a highlight, either. Even with an improved Carlos Rodón during his second season in pinstripes, as well as a Rookie of the Year campaign from Luis Gil, the Yankees’ rotation was right around league average in terms of WAR. Some of that middling production was due to Cole’s missing the first two and a half months of the season with elbow inflammation, which limited him to 95 innings. However, Cole is now 34, Rodón has a significant injury history, and Gil could be due for some regression. Nestor Cortes and Clarke Schmidt also missed time last season, and Marcus Stroman was inconsistent enough that he was booted from the rotation down the stretch and didn’t pitch in the postseason. Considering all of this, the Yankees were wise to add another dependable arm here, even if Fried’s forearm ailments are a bit concerning.
Maybe it’s just me, but it never felt like the Braves were really all-in on Fried this winter. With the conversion of Reynaldo López back to a full-time starter going successfully and Spencer Schwellenbach’s terrific debut (and very good projections), I’m guessing the team was happy to count on Spencer Strider’s return and a healthy Chris Sale to anchor the rotation.
The Yankees still have a lot to do to fill the Soto-sized hole in their lineup, but they needed to do more than just make up for his lost production. In signing Fried, they’ve fortified their rotation.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
So what I’m reading is that this is a classic Cashman blunder, overpaying a declining player past 30
So,presumably the Yankees now trade Nestor and maybe move stroman? They also have Brubaker without options sitting around. Presumably Gomez and Beeter are now destined for the pen?
Fried is great but there must be some other moves planned out because this signing creates a (good to have) logjam.
never hurts to have depth. nestor and stroman are probably at or near the nadir of their value, so i might be worth seeing if they can rebound somewhat and move one at the deadline
If I’m trying to make a big push in 2025 I am absolutely calling the Yankees about Nestor Cortes. The dude put up 3 wins last year and he might not even be in the rotation.
Stroman is gonna be very tough to move as he’s due 18 mil and his k-bb rate wasn’t good and his ground ball rate went down he has very, very little trade value if any at all. The Yankees have to eat most of his contract to get rid of him.
Teams just need innings. I would not at all be shocked if a team is willing to take most of Stroman’s salary. He’s been pretty healthy, is never terrible, and was an All-Star in 2023. I’m not sure he’s THAT much worse than Montas who just got 2/34
I don’t see anyway a team takes on the entirety of that contract and he was a five inning pitcher this past year.
Rangers have a spare 1b now and CY likes to stockpile starters. I could see a swap where Cashman eats part of Stroman’s payroll to move him
The trading for Jazz has opened up so many doors. Rather than being boxed into having to specifically sign/trade for a player at a specific position (and thus lose leverage).
They could sign Bregman and move to Jazz to CF, the sign Santander and keep Jazz at 3B, etc.
Can also slot Jazz in a second as well if they get Bregman, as Torres seems likely out.
Looking at the market for pitching, the Yankees now have a lot of resources that people would still want. Not top tier guys, but solid guys that other teams still need. Sorta like how they also have 5 catchers on the 40 man roster. They’re hoping to capitalize on a lack of market supply.
Max Fried is one of my favorites, ever since that NLCS against the Dodgers a few years ago where he was the one guy who could go after them and throw stuff that fooled them. But in the abstract, if you told me that a 3.5 win starter who is dealing with some forearm troubles got $218M in free agency I would be so confused. This contract is paying him like it’s 2022.
Based on this, Severino, Eovaldi, etc I would not want to be looking for a starter on the free agent market this year. I am a big proponent of having playoff-worthy starters, and Fried definitely qualifies, but if I were building a team outside of the bigger markets I would have to find another path.
For many teams, that path is trading with the Yankees for one of their controllable starters. It’s classic market manipulation for them.
It’s kind of hard to blame the Braves for passing on this. They could sign Schwellenbach to a 10 year deal for something like 40% of this.
Good signing by Yankees. Maybe one year too long but they have plenty of money so just a rounding error. Good shot at Cy Young if he stays healthy. Gotta roll the dice when you have no prospects to trade for pitching.
Yep. Yep. WTFCYYOUNGISTHATAJOKE? Yep.
Man oh man, I love this signing. And it’s not just because Fried is a great pitcher (which he is). It’s for the effects on the marketplace.
The Yankees not only took one of the best starters of the board, but this huge contract makes signing FA starters even more unappealing for small and mid-market teams. Luckily, there’s an easy solution for them: trade a top bat to the Yankees to acquire one of their many controllable pitchers: Gil for 5 years, Schmidt for 3 years, or even Cortes for 1 year at a bargain at $7M, not to mention guys like Warren, Beeter, and Hampton in the minors. The Yankees now control a surplus of the most valuable asset on the marketplace, and they increased the value of that asset as well. Brilliant.
They’re also doing something similar with how many catchers they’ve got on the 40 man. d’Arnaud signed early and now basically if teams want catchers, the Yankees have a shiny Jose Trevino up for grabs, as well as intriguing catching prospects.
This is a really interesting way to look at it, thanks!
This seems like a lot of money for a guy with an injury history. I’d have stuck with Burnes even for $50m more or something. Even Outbidding the Dodgers for Snell would have been better
It was reported that the Yankees were talking to Snell and asked him to wait a bit, as they were dealing with the Soto stuff.
Snell did not wait. He also didn’t maximize his earnings, again, but he got a pretty good deal. Had he waited, he could have made Fried or (presumably) Burnes money. But he reportedly wanted to play in LA because he and his girlfriend enjoy Southern California. And the stuff where the Dodgers are the premier team of MLB.
TINSTATMSP – There Is No Such Thing As Too Much Starting Pitching
A “u” between the last T and S would make it pronounceable.
Tin Stat Musp
TINSTAMS also works (There Is No Such Thing As Too Many Starters).
Man, I am shocked by how mediocre that Zips projection is… Other than a few more walks last year, the consistency has been pretty remarkable the past few years.
My understanding is that Fried is exactly the type of guy who these models don’t like, since he’s a soft contact/ground ball type.
But 7 years of this with Atlanta probably isn’t wrong.
Not to mention the Yankees’ reputation as a good pitch development org. Fried could be throwing harder with more break by March.