JABO: In Defense of Brandon Phillips
“If you don’t get on base, then you suck. That’s basically what they’re saying.” So said Brandon Phillips to USA Today Sports on Tuesday, in a vehement defense of the way that he plays baseball. And to be sure, there are plenty of people who have said this (more or less). I cut my sabermetric teeth on Gary Huckabay and Joe Sheehan proclaiming that “OBP is life. Life is OBP.” But there are plenty of ways to skin a cat, and not focusing on on-base percentage has worked out just fine for Phillips. In fact, it’s worked out better for him than most players in baseball history.
In the FanGraphs glossary entry for on-base percentage, the rule of thumb for an average OBP is listed as .320. With a .319 career OBP, Phillips is basically right at that average mark. And that is a touch unfair to him. During his time in Cleveland, before he put it all together, he logged a paltry .246 OBP in 462 plate appearances. In his time in Cincy, his OBP has been .325, just a shade over average. He has had an OBP above league average in three of his nine seasons in Cincy. Last season, when he posted a paltry .306 OBP — his worst in his nine years in Cincy — it was still better than the average National League second baseman. Of the 11 NL second basemen who compiled at least 400 PA last season, Emilio Bonifacio, Kolten Wong, Aaron Hill and Jedd Gyorko all posted worse OBP’s than did Phillips. In other words, while Phillips isn’t the OBP messiah, he’s far from a pariah.
In fact, among his average or worse OBP peer group, Phillips is a top-20 player all time:
| Most Valuable Players by WAR, .319 Career OBP or less |
|---|
| Player | PA | OBP | WAR |
| Matt Williams | 7,595 | 0.317 | 44.8 |
| Willie Davis | 9,822 | 0.311 | 43.5 |
| Lance Parrish | 7,797 | 0.313 | 43.4 |
| Devon White | 8,080 | 0.319 | 41.8 |
| Alfonso Soriano | 8,395 | 0.319 | 39.7 |
| Hal Chase | 7,939 | 0.319 | 39.1 |
| Gary Gaetti | 9,817 | 0.308 | 39.0 |
| Tim Wallach | 8,908 | 0.316 | 37.6 |
| Lee May | 8,219 | 0.313 | 35.7 |
| Bert Campaneris | 9,625 | 0.311 | 32.5 |
| Frank White | 8,468 | 0.293 | 31.0 |
| Bob Boone | 8,148 | 0.315 | 30.4 |
| Benito Santiago | 7,516 | 0.307 | 28.7 |
| Ezra Sutton | 5,536 | 0.316 | 28.2 |
| Terry Pendleton | 7,637 | 0.316 | 28.2 |
| John Ward | 8,084 | 0.314 | 28.1 |
| Rick Dempsey | 5,407 | 0.319 | 27.8 |
| Brandon Phillips | 6,154 | 0.319 | 27.1 |
| J.J. Hardy | 5,166 | 0.312 | 26.7 |
| Marquis Grissom | 8,959 | 0.318 | 26.4 |
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
I think people aren’t criticizing for Brandon Phillips for not changing his approach because it has worked for him. They are criticizing his ignorance about baseball and value. It is essentially similar to a Nobel Prize winning Biologist saying global warming doesn’t exist. You can be really good at what you do, but when you start saying others that are experts in different area are wrong, it is utter ignorance.
No, it’s more like Usain Bolt saying wind isn’t a factor in race results. Yeah, he’s wrong, but why were you expecting him to be right?
Why did you have to bring race into it? 😉
Anyone who actively chooses ignorance in the face of mountains of evidence deserves to be mocked mercilessly.
I love how in “OBP is life. Life is OBP” we see a ’06 midseason reference of Scott Proctor throwing potentially throwing 110 innings. It was a joke at the time, yet Proctor ended up at 102 IP bahahaha
Still doesn’t give him the right to bust in on a great beat reporter (C. Trent Rosecrans) during an interview and call him a “fat f***er” for tweeting about BP’s OBP (or lack thereof), a stat in which Phillips now says he could care less about. An asshole is an asshole is an asshole.
And I’m a Reds fan.
Yeah, that was sad.
Everything you said I agree with, with the exception of CTrent being a great beat writer. Cincinnati sports writers are horrible, they are either complacent and lazy (Fay) or have no balls.
It’s worth pointing out that:
– Low OBP/High SLG players are most valuable in a High OBP/Low SLG lineup
– High OBP/Low SLG players are most valuable in a Low OBP/High SLG lineup
So, back to the original Phillips/Votto article, those two guys are perfect for helping each other generate more runs.
This. Phillips great RBI total in 2013 would look a lot different if Choo hadn’t batted in front of him. That he can’t connect those very obvious dots is why he deserves the criticism he is getting.
Phillips isn’t really a low OBP or high SLG player though. He’s essentially an average OBP and average SLG player (if you take his home park into account).
Phillips is just bitching to bitch. He’s like the guy at work that is passed over for a promotion he didn’t deserve…he immediately starts to say that he didn’t want that job anyway because that job sucks.
Love the article. Someone needs to tell BK that on MLB Network. Phillips is a pretty good player.
Seconded. I think Kenny gets a bit dogmatic, towing the SABR party line and all that. BP is (or was) a good player.
I think BP is a bit bitter because SABR types have been hard on him relative to the fact that he was good. I’m sure most of us would get ticked off if we had people constantly reminding us of our weakness despite multiple strengths. He was a great defending 2B with solid power and could run (though I don’t know off the top of my head what his base running stats look like). It is a little annoying when our SABR inclined brethren get so focused on tempering common perceptions of certain players with their weaknesses, like Jeter’s defense or Trumbo’s OBP, that they talk about those players like they’re awful. If he lacks respect for the value of obp, I’d tell him he’s wrong, but there’s no doubt he’s still been a good player without it. BP has every right to defend his career achievements, OBP be damned.
Ughhh….TZ Says what? That comment seems to suggest that Votto is high OBP/Low Slugging whereas BP is somehow low OBP/High Slugging. Votto is a career .417 obp .513 slugging. BP is .319 OBP .423 slugging. And BP hasn’t slugged over .400 since 2012.
Phillips mindset at the plate is more power-focused, whereas Votto has recently been more and more on the OBP train.
Mindset is irrelevant if it doesn’t lead to results….and regardless of Phillips’ mindset, he hasn’t hit well for a couple of years (or been above average since 2011.
Funny that Phillips doesn’t complain about new defensive metrics, which think he is fantastic.
Votto relative to Phillips and vice versa. I should have made this clearer in my original comment (this is also for Paper Lions comment above as well).
Mr. Phillips, what you’ve just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard. At no point in your rambling, incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought. Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Wasn’t he complaining a few years ago about the pay discrepancy between Votto and Him? That might explain his hatred for OBP.
Yeah but what about his Business Ethics?
His peer set is impeccable, per BBRef’s most similar feature:
Rich Aurilia (948)
Juan Uribe (935)
Jhonny Peralta (930)
Shawon Dunston (922)
Ian Kinsler (916)
Edgardo Alfonzo (916)
Damion Easley (912)
Melvin Mora (910)
Carlos Baerga (910)
Aaron Hill (908)
Brandon Phillips’ willful ignorance is one thing. What’s worse is that a large portion of the Reds’ fan base thinks the same way, which I suppose is no surprise since Marty Brenneman on the radio hasn’t bothered to learn a new thing about baseball since 1975 and his son Thom parrots the same retro-schtick on TV. Also I doubt it’s a coincidence that the Creation Museum is a mere 29 minute drive from Great American Ballpark. Just as Jesus walked amongst the dinosaurs: RBIs rule, while having people on base to knock in drools.
People who score aren’t run creators, just like people who work aren’t job creators.
I;m a job creator. I also raise our country’s GDP. All hail pollution, your next president!
I, for one, welcome our new pollution overlords
Duly noted, Eric. Say, you seem like a sycophantic type, how’s about you do me a favor? If you take out environment-apologist and internet-creator Al Gore, I can guarantee you a lucrative position as Secretary to Pollution. You scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours.
Man the irony of people talking about creationism next to the posts in this section.
Creationism is about failing to see a deeper meaning to something and interpreting it literally.
Phillips issue is not the value placed on obp and “sabremetric stats”, it’s the failure to place value on other aspects of baseball- defense (until recently), running (until recently and not specifically in his case), and the ability to things that don’t show up in a box score (sacrifice, hard take out slides, taking an extra base on a lazy OF).
He is, of course only partially right- one could theoretically do all of those things and still get on base (Utley, Trout etc…), but to dismiss his point outright is a failure to read the deeper meaning.
The failure to identify players (like Phillips) who bring value that can’t be quantified and, conversely, the failure to identify players who have unquantifiable limitations (Youkilis comes to mind) has been one of the biggest flaws of the moneyball Era.