JABO: Making a Thief of Anthony Rizzo

The Cubs are a running team, now. Wasn’t always that way. Wasn’t that way even one season ago. One season ago, the Cubs finished with just 65 stolen bases, seventh-fewest in the majors. This year, they already have 25, second-most in the majors. If you fold unsuccessful steals into the mix, last year the Cubs were the worst stealing team in baseball. So far this year, fourth-best. No one ever wins the World Series because of the running game, but improvements are improvements, and this is a legitimate change.

And, well, this year’s Cubs have a bunch of new players. They also have a new manager, so maybe it’s not the most surprising thing in the world that they’ve become more aggressive with their legs. Joe Maddon liked to put the game in motion in Tampa Bay, and in spring training with Chicago he made baserunning a priority. On the other hand, here’s Anthony Rizzo, also from spring training:

“We don’t steal much on this team anyway.”

Rizzo, perhaps, wasn’t yet used to playing with Dexter Fowler. Fowler’s already stolen six bags. That’s good enough to tie him for eighth in the majors. But let’s keep that figure in mind. As of this writing, 15 players have stolen at least six bases. That’s a somewhat arbitrary line, but I chose it for a reason. Here are the 15:

It’s worth going over the stolen-base history of these guys. Generally speaking, guys who steal will steal, and guys who don’t steal will not steal. You know how stealing is. Let’s ask of each player a very basic question: Has the player ever before stolen 20 bases in a major- or minor-league season?

  • Hamilton: yes, obviously
  • Marisnick: yes
  • Gordon: yes
  • Altuve: yes
  • Ellsbury: yes
  • Springer: yes
  • Polanco: yes
  • Trout: yes
  • Fowler: yes
  • Davis: yes
  • Aoki: yes
  • Gardner: yes
  • Martin: yes
  • Cain: yes
  • Rizzo: no

Read the rest on Just A Bit Outside.





Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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Hank G.
8 years ago

Considering the wear on the body, does it even make sense to try to steal a lot of bases? The breakeven point is high, ~75%, and the average value of a successful stolen base is low. Trying to create value by stealing a lot of bases seems to be like trying to get rich by picking up pennies off the sidewalk – a lot of effort for very little gain.

LHPSU
8 years ago
Reply to  Hank G.

Squeeze as much juice out of the orange as possible, and leave the problem to somebody else.

Harry
8 years ago
Reply to  LHPSU

Just put the rinds in the bin really not a big problem.