JABO: This Offseason Goes Through Boston

by
November 4, 2015

With the World Series in the rear view mirror, MLB’s hot stove season is just about to get warmed up. The exclusive negotiating period for teams to negotiate with their own players ends on Friday, opening the doors for 139 free agents to hit the open market. And with names like David Price, Jason Heyward, and Yoenis Cespedes up for grabs, this is a star-laden free agent class, far better than anything seen in recent years. But despite the availability of a host of All-Star caliber players, the man with the most power this winter might very well be Dave Dombrowski.

After being let go by the Tigers on August 4th, it took Dombrowski all of two weeks to land a job as the President of Baseball Operations with the Red Sox. His history of success with the Expos, Marlins, and Tigers made him a coveted free agent in his own right, and the Red Sox wasted no time in giving him the keys to the office in an effort to get the franchise back on the winning path. While the previous regime left a strong core in place, it’s clear that Dombrowski is going to want to remake the roster to better align with his own philosophies, and that means that the Red Sox may very well be the busiest team in baseball this winter.

As his first priority, Dombrowski has made it pretty clear that he’s going to target high-end pitching this winter.

“Our depth in starting pitching is pretty good,” said Dombrowski. “I don’t think the back end of our rotation is going to be the difficult part. When I say ‘back end,’ I mean (Nos.) 3-4-5 — Porcello, Miley, Kelly. We saw Owens, he pitched well. We had Rodriguez and he can take that step forward at any point. So I don’t think it’s the depth, as much as you’re looking for that one guy who can maybe be your horse, if you can get him.”

Read the rest on Just a Bit Outside.





 

Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

44 Comments
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MjwW
8 years ago

Fengraphs has returned.

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Dave Cameron
8 years ago
Reply to  MjwW

Seriously, shitsnaps, why are you here? You alone have made a joke of the comments section.

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Peters Scissors
8 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

Is it shits naps or shit snaps?

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Dave Cameron
8 years ago
Reply to  Peters Scissors

shit snaps

0
Aviato
8 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

Sorry, Dave. I’m normally a big fan of your stuff, but this article smacks of Bleacher Report clickbait.

The offseason does not go through Boston (which is a silly, hyperbolic thing to say anyway) because there are 29 other teams, many with more needs and more money to spend than the Red Sox. The Dodgers, for example, will be in on every SP, free agent or on the trading block, so why would a team off-loading a front-end starter necessarily make Dombrowski “the first call it makes”? The Dodgers have money and prospects too. Is this supposed to imply that DD is on every GM’s speed dial but Friedman isn’t?

The Giants just freed up a bunch of salary and are almost certainly going to pick up a big money SP in free agency. “It’s fair to expect every pitcher looking for a big payday to initiate contact with the Red Sox”… and the Giants… and any other team looking for a pitcher. Why wouldn’t they? Their agent would get fired otherwise.

I could easily see Boston pick up a reclamation pitcher like Fister, shuffle it’s bullpen around, then sit on the roster they have hoping for some positive regression. This is still essentially the same roster that many were picking to win the World Series this year. Claiming that Boston holds some kind of keys to this offseason’s goings on is cheap pandering to that particular fanbase. Don’t get upset when you get called out on it.

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Dave Cameron
8 years ago
Reply to  Aviato

tl;dr

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Dave T
8 years ago
Reply to  Aviato

Agreed.

Let’s expand on the Dodgers as an example. With Greinke opting out, the Dodgers have just under $150 million committed for 2016, plus 11 estimated arb awards that total $36 million (per MLB trade rumors). So that puts them at about $185 million for 2016 – that includes money that they’re eating for departed players – and they almost certainly want at least one top tier starter (whether that’s Greinke or someone else). Their opening day payroll was $270 million this year, so they could commit a lot of money before coming near that figure.

They Dodgers have been active in trades, and they’ve been willing to get creative in using their financial muscle to make trades work by taking on bad contracts (such as Morse) or eating salary to move a player (such as Kemp).

Or let’s even look at a team like the Astros. They have only $43 million committed for 2016 plus $31 million in estimated arb awards, so figure $74 million on the books. They’re in a good spot to increase that meaningfully if they wish – plenty of cost-controlled young talent, no long-term commitments, and they should start seeing a nice revenue uptick from the rebuild getting them into the playoffs in 2015.

As Mark says below, the Red Sox look like they have about $30 to $35 million in dry powder. These are just a couple teams that also look to have that much (or more) if they choose to use it. There are other teams that are also probably at or near that amount – you’ve mentioned the Giants, the Cubs and Cardinals also probably have money to spend, and undoubtedly there are others who will be in the bidding. With so many good FA’s, especially at starting pitcher and corner OF, I can see a lot of agents wanting to get deals done rather than run the risk of being the odd man out after most teams commit their budgets and fill out rosters.

So this assessment by Cameron – “With this many options, it seems quite possible that all the other teams might end up sitting around waiting for Dombrowski to decide what he wants to do” – strikes me as completely wrong. I mean, I can’t imagine execs like Friedman, Esptein, Luhnow, Sabean, and Mozeliak going into the offseason with that sort of mindset.

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Dave Cameron
8 years ago
Reply to  Aviato

ditto

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Slugerrr
8 years ago
Reply to  MjwW

Couldn’t even wait until the champagne was warm to start talking RedSox again…sickening

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dumb comment police
8 years ago
Reply to  Slugerrr

So FanGraphs should stop publishing articles until the Royals are ready for them to resume? That’s the dumbest thing I’ve seen all day… dumber than Damaso’s comments.

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Opie Curious
8 years ago
Reply to  Slugerrr

Here’s the thing about this comment: it doesn’t make them less likely to write about the Red Sox, if that’s what you’re after. It does make other people think Royals fans are whiny (which I don’t like, as I am one).

If you want them to not write about the Red Sox anymore, you can do one of two things: 1) don’t give pageviews to any articles that are about the Red Sox. Fangraphs tends to have pretty clear headlines, so I don’t think you’re going to be tricked into it. Nobody will make you read any of this. 2) Put together a testable business case that demonstrates why writing about the Red Sox is bad for their ad revenue and/or their baseball analysis. I bet they’d listen to that.

Otherwise, you’re stomping your feet like a petulant child, which is bad all the time, but even worse after your team has just won a title.

4