JJ Wetherholt Signs Eight-Year Deal With Cardinals

Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

JJ Wetherholt is one of the biggest All-Star snubs this year, but he still had a pretty great end to the first half of his rookie season. On Friday, he agreed to an eight-year contract extension that runs until the end of the 2034 season. Wetherholt is hitting .259/.356/.399 for a 114 wRC+ and 3.5 WAR, the last number leading the St. Louis Cardinals and ranking second among all second basemen, in a virtual tie with Brice Turang and trailing only Luis Arraez, whose advantage of two-tenths of a win comes from his time as a DH. The eight-year deal guarantees that Wetherholt will make $112.5 million, with the potential to net an additional $20 million from MVP votes and All-Star appearances. He also receives a $2 million signing bonus this fall, which ensures he’ll get something soon if the upcoming CBA negotiation proves to be an extended one.

We can argue all day whether or not Wetherholt is the most glaring All-Star omission this year, but with eight of the top 10 second basemen by WAR not making the cut, and a whole bunch of other positions to dig through, I’d have to write a very different article to tackle that question. But it’s inarguable that Wetherholt is having a marvelous rookie season, and is one of the favorites to win NL Rookie of the Year honors when it’s over.

A first-round pick in 2024 out of West Virginia, Wetherholt was expected to march through the minors quite quickly, and that prophecy turned out to be a good one. After a late-summer professional debut for Palm Beach in the Florida State League during his draft year, Wetherholt started off 2025 for Double-A Springfield, and it only took a couple of months of hitting .300/.425/.466 before he earned a promotion to Triple-A Memphis, where he played even better and added power to the mix.

While it was never guaranteed he’d start the season in the majors, he entered spring training in the best spot to do so among baseball’s deep pool of infield phenoms (Kevin McGonigle, Konnor Griffin, Colt Emerson, Jesús Made, Leo De Vries, and I could keep going with this very long parenthetical). Trades of Nolan Arenado and Brendan Donovan cleared the deck for Wetherholt, as long as he didn’t go completely splat in the spring. He didn’t.

The Cardinals prepared for his quick arrival, making sure to give him a good chunk of his playing time in 2025 at second base and third base, considering Masyn Winn was entrenched as their starting shortstop. Landing at the keystone, Wetherholt has taken to playing the position, his +15 FRV nearly doubling up the next-best in the league, the trio of Arraez, Turang, and Nico Hoerner at +8. Remarkably, 15 runs is elite defense even over a full season, and Wetherholt already ranks sixth among second basemen in single-season FRV, though take note that the stat only goes back to 2016. Defensive statistics are quite volatile, but I’ve found that outlier Statcast fielding measures do tend to be more sticky when they align with the Baseball Info Solutions metrics, and his +11 DRS is nearly as stunning. Adding Wetherholt to Winn has given the Cardinals one of the best middle infields of the Statcast era.

Best Defensive Middle Infields, Statcast Era
Season Team 2B FRV SS FRV Total
2018 Arizona Diamondbacks 0 33 33
2021 Kansas City Royals 7 22 29
2019 Chicago Cubs -1 29 28
2021 New York Mets 10 17 27
2023 Chicago Cubs 8 17 25
2026 St. Louis Cardinals 17 7 24
2022 Detroit Tigers 24 0 24
2017 Colorado Rockies 17 6 23
2018 Miami Marlins 5 18 23
2024 Cleveland Guardians 17 5 22
2017 Los Angeles Angels 1 21 22
2016 Detroit Tigers 12 9 21
2019 Cincinnati Reds 6 15 21
2023 San Francisco Giants 18 3 21
2024 Colorado Rockies 5 15 20
2018 Houston Astros 9 10 19
2022 Atlanta Braves 2 17 19
2016 Cleveland Indians 3 15 18
2016 Arizona Diamondbacks 9 8 17
2022 Houston Astros 7 10 17

The emergence of Wetherholt as an instant star is not the only reason that the Cardinals, who entered the season in a clear retooling phase, have remained competitive in the NL Central. While catching the Brewers and their 8 1/2-game lead is a tall order, at 50-45, St. Louis is just a game out of a playoff spot. If Jordan Walker can maintain his blistering breakout year, then he (2.7 WAR, 142 wRC+) and Wetherholt (3.5 WAR, 114 wRC+), along with Winn (1.4 WAR, 83 wRC+), All-Star catcher/DH Iván Herrera (1.5 WAR, 121 wRC+), and first baseman Alec Burleson (1.7 WAR, 122 wRC+) would combine to make a pretty good position player core to build upon. And also, the Cardinals have some promising prospects in the high minors who could reinforce that group in the coming years.

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You didn’t think I was going to try to sneak out of here without some projections for Wetherholt, did you? This projection is through the All-Star break, so it’s hot off the presses, or whatever the computer projection system version of a printing press would be.

ZiPS Projection – JJ Wetherholt
Year BA OBP SLG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB OPS+ WAR
2027 .257 .347 .390 533 81 137 18 1 17 71 60 94 13 107 4.3
2028 .257 .348 .394 548 84 141 19 1 18 74 63 94 13 108 4.5
2029 .258 .348 .399 559 85 144 20 1 19 76 64 94 13 109 4.7
2030 .256 .347 .397 562 85 144 20 1 19 76 64 93 13 108 4.7
2031 .256 .346 .399 559 84 143 21 1 19 75 64 92 12 109 4.7
2032 .251 .342 .390 549 81 138 20 1 18 72 62 90 11 105 4.2
2033 .254 .344 .391 532 78 135 20 1 17 70 60 88 10 106 4.1
2034 .252 .342 .387 511 74 129 19 1 16 66 57 85 9 104 3.7

Even with the normal (mathematically required) skepticism inherent in a projection system, ZiPS is very positive about Wetherholt’s outlook. It doesn’t expect him to hit more than 15-20 home runs per year or to become a force when it comes to batting average, but it does view him as an above-average contributor at the plate who should have a good number of All-Star nods in his future — and that’s with more conservative defensive projections of 10-12 runs above average. This deal buys out five years of club control, not a full six (since it does not cover the 2026 season), and ZiPS would have been quite satisfied, as with Konnor Griffin, to extend him a deal in the $160 million range. (This is under MLB’s current collective bargaining agreement, which could obviously change in the next CBA. Since Dan is not a magical sorcerer, he does not know what the new deal will be.)

Hopefully, the Cardinals will continue to sign their offensive core. With superb defense at short and, at times, a league-average bat, Winn would be an excellent extension candidate. However, because he’ll have three years of service time after 2026, he’s about to enter his first year of arbitration, meaning the team won’t get any pre-arbitration discount on the terms, which could make it more difficult to come to an agreement. St. Louis should at least talk with Walker about what it would take to extend him long-term, though that feels a bit riskier given his up-and-down career. Burleson, who is steady at the plate but with a lower ceiling than Walker, Wetherholt, and Winn, could be the most likely player for the club to extend next. Considering the Cardinals haven’t had as much success developing their stable of pitching prospects, they may have to bolster their rotation and bullpen through free agency, and if that’s the case, they would probably want to have some cost certainty on the position player side of things.

No matter what happens with the others, when it comes to Wetherholt, the Cardinals accomplished what they needed to do. They locked up a player who looks capable of anchoring their infield for the next decade, one who should play a key role in the next good Cardinals teams. The core that led St. Louis to four consecutive postseasons from 2019 to 2022 is gone, and lately, the team has been defined more by the players it trades away rather than the ones it gets to keep. As a small-market team that relies on punching above its demographic weight through its loyal fanbase, that’s not the best position to be in. Now, at least, Wetherholt is one player the Cardinals are keeping. They’d be smart to make him the first of many young stars to stick around.





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

26 Comments
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lmb2020Member since 2020
1 month ago

Projection chart made me feel alive again.

Farbsy15Member since 2023
1 month ago

Wasn’t that long ago that a 2026 prospect ETA felt like a magical future date that would never come … time flies

Mike ZMember since 2025
1 month ago

As a Cubs fan I hate to say it appears the Cards got a deal here. Looks like he’ll already top 5 WAR this year and would expect a prime considerably stronger than projections in OBP and slug based on plate discipline and power already demonstrated at the big league level.

ThomasMember since 2020
1 month ago

love that most of the “best middle infield defenses” were one guy going sicko mode and one guy who was there most days, if he felt like it

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
1 month ago

I find it very difficult to understand how ZIPs doesn’t see several 20+ or even 30 HR seasons in Wetherholt’s future. Last season he was on pace to hit 25 in AA-AAA and this year is on a 23 HR pace in his rookie season. I always go back to Mookie when he hit 15, at the age of 20, in 127 games in 2013 in the Sally and Carolina Leagues yet the industry could not accept the fact that he was already a power hitter, or at least a man who knew how to hit it over the fence. I doubt if many saw Francisco Lindor turning into a 30 homer man almost every year either. Wetherholt has hit a couple over 420 and I would love to put my money every spring on him hitting more than 20 bombs. The Cardinals have to be very happy to get him locked in at this price. This man will be a superstar if he isn’t already.

HappyFunBallMember since 2019
1 month ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

Because being Mookie Betts is, like, a 99th percentile outcome

sadtromboneMember since 2020
1 month ago
Reply to  HappyFunBall

Mookie Betts’ career is something like 95th percentile outcome for Mookie Betts himself.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
1 month ago
Reply to  HappyFunBall

The player I actually see Wetherholt being most similar to is Ryne Sandberg. It looks like the same combination of Gold Glove defense, plenty of extra base hits and an excellent all-around game.

warpath
1 month ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

It is probably just the inputs to the model. Wetherholt has an average exit velo of about 90 MPH, which is about league average, but his EV90 is well below average at only 102.4 MPH. He hasn’t been pulling the ball in the air down the line at a rate that portends greatly outperforming the raw power either.

So I think the power projections take this into account and moderate the power projection a little. Maybe Wetherholt is the type of guy who can get the most of his batted balls where his hardest contact tends to be the air so that his game power plays up, but we’ll probably have to wait a few years to determine that.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
1 month ago
Reply to  warpath

What constitutes a power hitter? It must be the number of balls that a hitter puts in the stands, not how far they go. It is easy to compare Wetherholt to Betts, besides being 5’9″, and see similarities in their early development. It shouldn’t require waiting a few years to recognize that Wetherholt has the ability to hit 385′ fly balls to his pull side, just as Betts and Lindor have done throughout their great careers. I have a difficult time when performance is ignored and model worship is given priority.

warpath
1 month ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

I addressed this a bit in my comments. I agree that power production is more than raw exit velo, but Wetherholt is lacking the tendency to pulls balls in the air relative to Betts. Betts has been above-average at this his entire career, Wetherholt is on 32nd percentile in pull-air% so far this year.

Let’s take a look at this another way, isolated power. This year, despite being easily on-pace for over 20 home runs, Wetherholt only has an ISO of .140, lower than the current major league average of .158. How is this the case for a guy on track to be an above-average home run hitter this year?

It’s because while Wetherholt has 13 home runs, he only has 10 doubles, for a total of 23 extra base hits out of 91 total hits. There were 46 qualified players to hit 20-29 home runs last year. Here is the list of those in that group with more HR than 2Bs: Oneil Cruz, Marcell Ozuna, Lenyn Sosa, Josh Bell, Mike Trout, Kyle Manzardo, Cody Bellinger. Not a long list, and there are decent explanations for most of what we see here – these guys are slow (Ozuna, Sosa, Bell, Manzardo), have monster power when they actually make flush contact (Trout and Cruz), or a home park that is conducive to HRs as opposed to 2B (Bellinger).

Wetherholt doesn’t fit into any of those buckets I described above, so I’m inclined to believe he’s been a little lucky with his home runs given his measurable raw power, and that he’s had some probable doubles that have become home runs. Indeed, Statcast only has Wetherholt with 11.2 expected home runs, with 6 of his 13 home runs classified as “Doubters”, meaning they were barely gone.

All this to say is, unless there is measurable improvement, I myself agree with Zips and am a bit skeptical of Wetherholt as a consistently good to great home run hitter over the course of his career.

anthonydwMember since 2024
1 month ago
Reply to  warpath

All very well argued, and agree with much of what you say. But, simply put the model “doesn’t expect him to hit more than 15-20 home runs per year.” The guy has 13 homers in his first half season. He could well collapse, but he’s well over the pace that the model says he won’t reach.

That makes zero sense. This is his first year. Guys generally develop more power, no? I’m with whomever wrote above that his is about worshiping a model over actual performance. Models aren’t that good. When a guy is clearly outdoing a model in his first year, it’s a fair assumption he’ll continue to do so and the homer expectation should be 20-25.

Last edited 1 month ago by anthonydw
warpath
1 month ago
Reply to  anthonydw

It really comes down to this. The model is making a prediction of average performance. There is reason to believe Wetherholt is “getting lucky” in his home run production this year, and that his average performance, and thus our best guess for what to expect, should be lower than that going forward.

I do get what you’re saying. I do think Wetherholt will likely have multiple 20+ home run seasons. He is more than capable of it. Guys beat the projections all the time: they get lucky over the course of the year, they have a career year with a prolonged hot streak, or they just improve more than the model expected them to.

All I’m trying to say is that I myself am cautious of Wetherholt’s power going forward, for a lot of the same reasons the model probably is. He is outdoing the model right now, but there is a bit of reason to believe it is luck, not skill, and it may not be sustainable year over year. We will have to wait and see!

Last edited 1 month ago by warpath
HappyFunBallMember since 2019
1 month ago
Reply to  anthonydw

The model doesn’t say he won’t reach it. The model says that his current production exceeds his projected 50th percentile outcome.

In other words, he’s having a good-outcome season. That will inform (and likely raise) his power projections going forward. It does not mean that it’s automatically a new baseline.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
1 month ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

Mostly exit velocity makes a power hitter, and secondarily launch angle and how much it is pulled.

From Eric’s report:

a lot of his power – which has played better than his below-average top-end exit velos suggest – comes via his ability to flatten out his barrel and clear out the top rail of the zone to the right-center gap.

This is one of the few prospects where Eric has assigned a higher game power than for raw power, grading him a 50 game power and 45 raw. But I don’t know that the projections can model that, but we should assume that he’s going to get to 100% of his raw power and there’s a chance he produces above that.

I can’t remember exactly what 50 game power is–my copy of future value is around here somewhere–but I think it’s 20-25 home runs. And he’s on pace for…21 homers? 22? That all checks out.

The Statcast readouts make it even more interesting. His max EV
is 116th out of 149, so 45 raw power seems about right. His EV is 63 out of 149 qualified hitters, so probably right around 50. His hard hit rate is 45th, so he’s consistently hitting balls above 95 MPH. If you take a look at his exit velocity histogram at Baseball Savant you can see a huge spike between 96 MPH and 101 MPH.

If you compare that to someone with a bit more raw power but who has a similar hard hit %–let’s say Freddie Freeman, who is about 1 percentage point lower on hard hit % but has about 1 MPH more in raw power, and who had one that was about 2 MPH higher last year–his exit velocity histogram doesn’t have any big spikes right around 96 MPH. It’s flat from about 85 MPH all the way up to about 105 MPH.

This means that JJ Wetherholt is making consistent hard contact (more consistent than Pages) but Pages is getting about 50% more home runs out of it because the gap between hitting a ball 105 MPH vs 101 MPH is enormous.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Is there a way to know what Betts and Lindor raw and game power ratings were when they were beginning their careers and what were their underlying metrics? It is safe to say that they were not given at least a 65 which I think is appropriate for men who will easily accumulate more than 350 home runs before they enter Cooperstown. As I said above, I expect Wetherholt to approach the HR numbers of these diminutive infielders

didaceMember since 2024
1 month ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

What evidence do you have that models ignore performance? As Dan has said before many, many times – models are conservative by nature.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
1 month ago
Reply to  didace

Because of the methodology of models I have often wondered if Mike Trout ever performed below his 80th. or even 90th, percentile between 2012-2019. What is the value of a projection if there is a high probability that it is not going to reflect the outcome? Am I correct in thinking that projections have a difficult time handling outliers such as Trout?

Athletics Fan Surrounded by GuardiansMember since 2025
1 month ago

>>Since Dan is not a magical sorcerer
Citation needed.

Greg SimonsMember since 2016
1 month ago

That has to be one of the most consistent, metronome-like projections ZiPS has ever spit out. It says Wetherholt essentially will be the same player every year for eight straight seasons.

fanofthemanMember since 2020
1 month ago
Reply to  Greg Simons

I think I recall noticing this pattern on some other early-career guys: almost like with less data the modeled performance feeds on itself to a greater degree, limiting the variance it can pick up on to project

sadtromboneMember since 2020
1 month ago

I think this probably bumps up his trade value rank from something like 16 to 9. I think I had him just ahead of Nick Kurtz and Dillon Dingler, but all clustered together. I think this puts him several spots ahead of that group though.

Still behind Konnor Griffin and James Wood (among others who are likely even higher) but what a fantastic player to have on your team long term. Being able to pencil a 4+ win second baseman into your lineup for seven years is an amazing place to start from.

fanofthemanMember since 2020
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

And while I hope they sign Winn, it’s also incredibly helpful to have the optionality of signing Winn and keeping Wetherholt at second or letting Winn walk if there’s no clear deal, and sliding Wetherholt to short. Based on his defense at 2b so far, I don’t think there is any reason to doubt that he’d be at least an adequate shortstop, and likely better.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
1 month ago
Reply to  fanoftheman

Certainly his range seems adequate or better now, whether it will be in a few years I don’t know. I believe the arm was always Eric’s question. Mine was always health, but his lower body seems to be better after his college days. Again, at least for now. I think that at the minimum you can comfortably pencil him in as an adequate or better second baseman as long as he can run.

fanofthemanMember since 2020
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Fair points for sure. Part of me is also thinking of the Cardinals recent-ish run of moving guys up the defensive spectrum to short and it working: Dejong and Edman both had questions about their defense and the ended up being strong to great defenders at short.

Anyway, I hope the keep Winn and render all this moot.

markjdMember since 2016
1 month ago

thanks Dan. my main question is how the projections would change if they dealt Winn to get the man from Mars at SS for the length of the deal.