As a Jays fan, I’m thrilled to read this but, considering all of the above, why are the projections so low on him (relatively, anyway) at 6 WAR? What regression are they all counting on?
The biggest cause of that “pessimism” is he’s being projected for 630 plate appearances on the depth charts. The Steamer projection extrapolated to the 700 he attained last year would hit 6.7 WAR, which is a reasonable decline.
If it makes you feel better, Zips projects 7 WAR over 657 PAs.
6 WAR projection is outstanding. Only two position players are projected better, one of which is named Trout. I’m a jays fan, too, and will be pretty happy if he meets his projection.
Yes, in general, I find it more instructive to look at the *ranking* of the players as opposed to the actual number. The projections will always bend toward the conservative side.
Donaldson is 31 this year, and the vast majority of players are in decline by that age.
I took all the modern players who totaled at least 20 bWAR over ages 27-30:
— They averaged 6.2 bWAR per year in that span.
— At age 31, they averaged 5.0 bWAR, a 20% decline from that prior average.
Donaldson is projected to decline at a similar rate.
As a Jays fan, I’m thrilled to read this but, considering all of the above, why are the projections so low on him (relatively, anyway) at 6 WAR? What regression are they all counting on?
The biggest cause of that “pessimism” is he’s being projected for 630 plate appearances on the depth charts. The Steamer projection extrapolated to the 700 he attained last year would hit 6.7 WAR, which is a reasonable decline.
If it makes you feel better, Zips projects 7 WAR over 657 PAs.
Hm, don’t know how I didn’t see those on the Projects page, but thanks! It DOES make me feel better 😛
Has his defense declined in real life? His defensive rating in Strat took a hit this year.
There are so many 2016 cards (including Donaldson’s) that I am dying to see.
6 WAR projection is outstanding. Only two position players are projected better, one of which is named Trout. I’m a jays fan, too, and will be pretty happy if he meets his projection.
Yes, in general, I find it more instructive to look at the *ranking* of the players as opposed to the actual number. The projections will always bend toward the conservative side.
Yes,if you are not mike trout you probably need to hit some luck in things like BABIP,HR/FB and health on top of great ability to hit 7 plus war.
Donaldson is 31 this year, and the vast majority of players are in decline by that age.
I took all the modern players who totaled at least 20 bWAR over ages 27-30:
— They averaged 6.2 bWAR per year in that span.
— At age 31, they averaged 5.0 bWAR, a 20% decline from that prior average.
Donaldson is projected to decline at a similar rate.