Kerry Wood, Joel Peralta and the 3-Year Reliever Club

Yesterday, Dave Cameron examined the grim history of 3+ year contracts dished out to free agent relievers over the past four off-seasons. The Cliff Notes version? Those ‘pen arms, save for the anomaly that is Mariano Rivera, have provided a paltry return on investment for their respective teams. After a few years of fiscal restraint, four relievers have received ample job security from clubs this winter: Joaquin Benoit (Tigers), Scott Downs (Angels), Matt Guerrier (Dodgers), and Jesse Crain (White Sox) all signed three-year contracts. If recent history is any indication, a few of these deals might elicit more forehead slaps than high-fives in front offices over the next three seasons.

In contrast to the long-term commitments given by the Tigers, Angels, Dodgers and White Sox, the Cubs and Rays each added a talented reliever for peanuts on Thursday. Kerry Wood will reportedly return to Wrigley Field on a one-year, $1.5 million deal. Joel Peralta, curiously non-tendered by the Nationals after a season in which he posted a 3.02 FIP and a 3.64 xFIP, is on the verge of signing a one-year contract with Tampa Bay for $900,000. Take a look at the 2011 Bill James projections for Wood and Peralta, compared to their much pricier free agent peers:

There’s not much separating the guys who are locked up through 2013 for a hefty sum of money from the guys who signed for table scraps. It’s true, Wood and Peralta are far from sure-fire success stories. In a 2010 season split between the Indians and the Yankees, Wood was limited to 46 innings pitched due to DL stints for a strained muscle in his upper back and a blister on his index finger. He has been placed on the DL 14 times during his career. Peralta is one of the most extreme fly ball pitchers in the game — his career ground ball rate is 32.5 percent — and he’ll likely surrender more homers next season.

But it’s not as though the three-year relievers are without their flaws: Benoit has a history of shoulder and elbow problems, Downs has missed time in recent years with ankle, toe and hamstring issues, and Crain has a labrum surgery and another DL stint for shoulder tendinitis in his past. Guerrier has pitched above his peripheral stats, but do you really want to wager that his BABIP will remain below .240 in Dodger Blue? There’s uncertainty for both the bargain-basement and big-money relievers. But if Wood and Peralta get hurt or fizzle out next year, their teams can move on without much pain. If injury or performance issues creep up for the three-year guys, their teams have long-term headaches to deal with. Not that the money involved would cripple them, but no one likes to burn payroll on an employee who contributes about as much as Stanley Hudson on The Office.

And, in the case of Peralta, there are circumstances that could mitigate some of the worries over his fly ball tendencies. Peralta will be backed by an outfield featuring some permutation of Desmond Jennings, B.J. Upton, Matt Joyce and Ben Zobrist. Carl Crawford’s gone, but these guys have plenty of range. Plus, Tropicana Field takes the juice out of power hitters: according to StatCorner, the land of the cowbells decreases lefty home run production by 11 percent and righty homers by six percent.

Given the information that we have at our disposal, there’s little separating Wood and Peralta from the three-year reliever club, other than cash and commitment length. Kudos to the Cubs and Rays for adding quality bullpen pieces without paying a premium price over a number of years for a volatile type of free agent.





A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Contact David at david.golebiewski@gmail.com and check out his work at Journalist For Hire.

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Souldrummer
13 years ago

Very much agree with this. Wood was a hometown discount, so it’s hard for me to give the Cubs but so much applause for that. I’m also curious to hear if there any significant incentives in there because I’m so incredulous about those terms.

While I’m not overjoyed with the Nationals for not signing Peralta, there bullpen is crowded with younger arms that they think could eventually close for them in the longer term. Right now their pen is Drew Storen, Sean Burnett, Tyler Clippard, Colling Balester, Craig Stammen, Cole Kimball (prospect that impressed and has to be on the 40-man), Adam Carr (prospect they like that has to be on the 40-man), their Rule 5 guy (who has to stay on the 25 man), Henry Rodriguez (who is out of options). Basically, they decided that they wanted to go younger. Not saying I agree with it, but that’s their process so it’s not like Rizzo totally lost his mind on this one.

Jack Weiland
13 years ago
Reply to  Souldrummer

Why shouldn’t they receive credit for getting a “hometown discount”? Just seems like being stubborn about giving credit where it’s due. No matter what they signed a decent piece to a nice deal, and they resisted any urge to go longer than necessary. The Cubs have made MANY free agent mistakes, but when they get one right at least give them the kudos they deserve.

jirish
13 years ago
Reply to  Jack Weiland

You are correct. It’s a great deal, Wood goes where he wants to go and he’s made enough money in the past that he doesn’t have to worry about that part of the deal. And yes, kudos to the Cubs for seeing that.