Laying Out the Look of the Wild-Card Pitching

In just a few hours, Luis Severino is going to throw the first pitch of the American League wild-card game. Some relatively short amount of time after that, Liam Hendriks will take the mound. Severino is one of the better starting pitchers in either league. Hendriks is a reliever who, in the middle of this very season, was designated for assignment. As far as the first inning goes, it’s…not an equal matchup. Or it doesn’t feel like one, at least. Of course, there’s more to it than that.

As Jay Jaffe has already written today, the Yankees are using a starter, while the A’s are planning on bullpenning. Hendriks has gotten used to being an opener, but this is going to be a little different, because he won’t be followed by a “bulk guy.” It’s likely to be Oakland relievers all the way down. This is the concept someone always advocates every year around this time, for a winner-take-all, one-game playoff. It’s no way to manage a pitching staff every day of every week of every month. The A’s don’t have to worry about that tonight. All that matters is what’s right before them.

I thought it would be useful to lay out how the pitching is probably going to look. Without question, compared to the A’s, the Yankees have the superior overall pitching staff. They certainly have the superior rotation, which would matter in a series, to say nothing of an entire regular season. But it’s all going to come down to this one single game, and the A’s are intending to maximize their odds. The overall pitching staffs don’t matter so much. I’ll try to show you what I mean, and we’ll start with a big ol table.

This is what I think the A’s pitching lineup for tonight could look like. Hendriks is a given. After that, it’s a guessing game, but don’t worry too much about the specific innings assigned. Move them around however you want. I think the A’s are likely to try to get Blake Treinen two frames. You’re seeing 2018 statistics, and, as always, expected wOBA comes from Baseball Savant.

We know it’ll start with Hendriks, and we know they’ll try to get to Rodney, Familia, and Treinen. In between, those are the most likely possibilities. You’ll notice this covers the first through ninth innings. Should the game require extras, the A’s would be left with Emilio Pagan, J.B. Wendelken, and Edwin Jackson. That’s no one’s idea of ideal, so the A’s are probably hoping for a nine-inning contest.

The Yankees are a little tougher to map out. Severino could, in theory, go the distance. Or he could last all of a third of one inning, as was the case last year at this time. But the Yankees have a deep bullpen of their own, and I can’t imagine that Aaron Boone will hesitate to use it. He’ll probably be aggressive in getting to it. Here’s how I see the lineup.

Barring a total blowout, the Yankees bullpen is just too good to let Severino go too many trips through the order. They can throw quality arm after quality arm after quality arm (after quality arm). In the event of extra innings, given this lineup, the Yankees would still have Jonathan Holder, Lance Lynn, J.A. Happ, and Masahiro Tanaka. That’s a better group than Oakland would have, most likely. If the game were to go long, I don’t know how it wouldn’t favor New York.

But now let’s put those tables together. How do these lineups compare directly? It probably seems, intuitively, like the Yankees have an advantage. It’s not so obvious that they do.

This is just considering the numbers for innings one through nine. Most games end in the ninth inning. The A’s look better by ERA-, actual wOBA allowed, and expected wOBA allowed. The Yankees look better by strikeouts, FIP-, and xFIP-. Those are important categories, and some would argue those are the most important categories. But you can see the influence here of the Oakland bullpen strategy. When you don’t have to worry about playing the next day, you don’t have to worry about burning out relievers. Oakland’s strength is its relievers. The weakness is the rotation. As far as this one game goes, the rotation is completely irrelevant. The one starter on the roster — Jackson — is likely to be the last pitcher used. I don’t think it’s going to get that far.

There’s a little more going on, as well. The Yankees have the better group of hitters, but not by that much. Oakland’s offense has been good almost since the beginning. And the A’s have the superior team defense, in no small part because one of these teams has Matt Chapman, and the other has Miguel Andujar. The defense further shrinks the run-prevention gap. Maybe the A’s already have the run-prevention advantage. And as for the matter of handedness, Buchter is the only southpaw on Oakland’s wild-card roster. The Yankees are starting seven righties, with only Didi Gregorius and Aaron Hicks looking to bat from the left side. The A’s are starting two lefties and a switch-hitter. Nothing here is enormously important, but the takeaway message is that the A’s are well built for this game. The Yankees are, too — their bullpen is incredible — but the one-game playoff all but eliminates the significance of the Oakland rotation. The starters are the biggest difference between these two clubs.

If the game goes to extras, the A’s might be up against it. If one of the relievers just isn’t feeling strong, the A’s might be up against it. And for God’s sake, we already watched how the NL wild-card game played out, and two of the most important players wound up being Tony Wolters and Terrance Gore. The A’s have mapped out a plan; baseball might laugh. You know how these things can go. But under ordinary circumstances, you might assume the Yankees would have a big edge. These will not be ordinary circumstances. This is going to be one game, and one game only. The Oakland roster is built for this.