Let’s Build Mic Drop Bullpens for the Diamondbacks and Rangers

It’s been a topsy-turvy year in baseball, at least from a team perspective. Shohei Ohtani is still great, and so are Ronald Acuña Jr. and Juan Soto, but the teams leading the charge look nothing like last year’s playoff hopefuls. The Rangers, Diamondbacks, and Reds are in first place in their respective divisions. The Orioles are in second place but sport the third-best record in the game.

In a lot of ways, those teams are doing well because they have great players. That’s just kind of how it works, you know? You don’t get good by having a pile of bad players. That makes it harder to suggest clean upgrades. Sure, occasionally you get a situation like Texas’ outfield mishmash or the back end of Cincinnati’s rotation, but for the most part, “how do we get good players to upstart teams?” is a self-solving problem. The teams are good because they have good players, and there’s just no need to complicate it more than that.

A lot of the good hitters and starters now are the same guys who were good half a decade ago, so teams build their farm systems accordingly. Each of these four surprising teams has core position players and starters who will be there a while. Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman, Corbin Carroll and Zac Gallen, Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, the entire Reds infield: they’re pillars of their respective franchises.

There’s one specific exception to that rule. Bullpens don’t work like the rest of a major league roster. They get assembled on the fly every year, more or less. The best five relievers from 2019, according to fWAR? That’d be Liam Hendriks, Kirby Yates, Josh Hader, Seth Lugo, and Brandon Workman. Hansel Robles, Taylor Rogers, and Nick Anderson were in the top 10. Relievers sustain success at a shockingly low rate compared to hitters and starters. No one sets out to assemble a great bullpen when the rest of the big league club isn’t good yet, because what would the point be? The guys who are excellent now will likely have declined by the time good relief pitching is important.

To the credit of the four upstarts, they didn’t come into 2023 ignoring their bullpens; each seemed to have an inkling that they might be good. The Rangers signed Will Smith and have already traded for Aroldis Chapman. The Diamondbacks signed, well, their whole ‘pen: Scott McGough, Miguel Castro, Andrew Chafin, Austin Adams, and José Ruiz all joined the club last offseason. The Reds performed an arcane ritual to transfer Edwin Díaz’s dominance to his brother Alexis. The Orioles have a relief pitcher factory hidden in the B&O warehouse that overlooks right field at Camden Yards.

I’m lukewarm on a lot of the potential trade targets connected to these teams. Deadline rental bats just aren’t that exciting most of the time. Stars mostly aren’t available. No one’s going to do backflips over their team acquiring Yasmani Grandal, Randal Grichuk, or Tyler O’Neill (if Ohtani gets traded, that’s a different story). Rental starters pique my interest slightly more, but not this year’s batch. Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, any of a variety of White Sox pitchers, maybe even Eduardo Rodriguez? In my professional baseball writer opinion, yawn.

Okay, fine, relievers might not sound that interesting, but assembling a lockdown bullpen is fun if it’s your team doing it. As an added benefit, relievers command less in trades. There’s nothing quite like the feeling of rolling out dominant arm after dominant arm, reducing the last few innings to a formality. The Orioles already have that — again, factory and all. The Reds could acquire a setup arm or two and let Díaz do the rest. That just leaves the Rangers and Diamondbacks to speculate over. The Rangers have already started the process by trading for Chapman, but there’s more work to do. The Diamondbacks have a few nice setup types, but no one who makes opposing fans sigh in disappointment when the ninth inning rolls around. Let’s get some of those guys on some of these teams.

Jordan Hicks
I know, I know, we’re not starting off with an exciting choice here. A guy with an ERA above 4.00, a guy who just literally threw a game away? But Hicks is the kind of arm you could imagine being absolutely unhittable. He’s running a career high 33.3% strikeout rate, throwing a new four-seam fastball 11% of the time, and generally behaving like the fire-breathing monster his tremendous velocity always implied was lurking in there somewhere.

Are the walks a problem? No doubt. Hicks has never quite managed to figure out where the ball is going; that’s part of the problem with throwing as hard as he does. Consider this more of a speculative addition, one you can throw in the middle part of your bullpen but with upside if he puts it all together. As an added benefit, he likely won’t require a huge outlay, because he’s a free agent after this season. The Cardinals are out of the race; he’s likely to get moved. This is more appetizer than main course, but it’s a good start.

Ryan Helsley
Now we’re talking. Helsley is what Hicks looks like on his good days. His riding four-seam fastball is near-unhittable when he’s on, and his wipeout slider completes the picture. He was probably the second-best reliever in baseball last year behind Edwin Díaz, and while he hasn’t quite been up to that standard this year, he’s still an immovable object suitable for the business end of any bullpen.

That’s not to say there aren’t complications here. Helsley is currently injured, which is less than ideal. He’s already started to throw again, but there’s no definitive timetable for his return. He’s also under team control for two more years after 2023, so he’s hardly your average deadline reliever rental. The Cardinals likely expect to contend those two years, so there’s no chance of low-balling them with a trade offer; if they don’t like it, they’ll simply pass and move on to next year, unlike with Hicks.

To get them both as a package, I’d suggest that the Rangers or Diamondbacks look to St. Louis’ weakness: starting pitching. Here’s an easy one: Dane Dunning for Hicks and Helsley, with one of Flaherty or Montgomery also going to Texas in exchange for a prospect. The Rangers cash in what amounts to a spare pitcher, while the Cardinals need controllable starting pitching badly. Another iteration: the Diamondbacks send Ryne Nelson and Slade Cecconi to the Cardinals for Hicks, Helsley, and Flaherty, who can replace Nelson’s rotation production this year.

These deals might not be attractive enough for either side to execute them. Would the Cardinals get rid of a multi-year bullpen capper for a mid-rotation starter? Would the Rangers and Diamondbacks be willing to trade starting pitching — always a valuable commodity — for a reliever with a short track record as a lockdown option, particularly if he’s only been back on a mound for a few weeks? But if you’re looking for a multi-reliever infusion with best-in-baseball upside, the Cardinals are a good place to start.

Some White Sox
The White Sox will surely be looking to trade relievers for future considerations, but none of their guys are no-doubters. I’m not sure if Kendall Graveman is good. The same goes for Joe Kelly (currently injured) and Reynaldo López. If you asked me which reliever on the team I wanted most before the year, I would have said Aaron Bummer, and he has a 7.58 ERA, so whoops.

I think this is likely where the Reds will come in. They don’t need anyone to backstop their bullpen; they just need volume. That doesn’t track for the Diamondbacks or Rangers, who have a lot of relievers of that general caliber already. I have no doubt that those relievers will be in demand at this deadline, but I don’t think either of the two teams I’m trying to improve in this article would trade with the Sox and call it a day there. They need more impact than these guys can provide.

Josh Hader
Hader looks like he’s back to peak form after a rough 2022. He’s one of the best handful of relievers in the game, and as a free agent after this year, he’s theoretically a great target for our two clubs. There’s one huge downside, though: the Padres probably aren’t looking to sell.

Maybe AJ Preller could be convinced. We give the Padres a 27% chance of making the playoffs, but that number could feasibly be in the low teens by the trade deadline. Given that Hader won’t be around next year, the Padres are looking at a compensation pick (after the fourth round given their financial situation) if they don’t trade him.

What would Hader command in trade? The days of Gleyber Torres for Chapman are long gone; rental relievers just don’t command that kind of return anymore. I think a reasonable price tag for Hader would be a prospect at the back end of the top 100 or just off of it, but I don’t think that the Padres would accept that deal. Going as all in as they have only to turn around and flip pieces for light returns while there’s still even a remote chance at a playoff berth seems like a no-go if Preller wants to keep his job. I guess what I’m saying is that I don’t really see this one happening, even if it makes good theoretical sense.

David Bednar
The Pirates had a fun beginning of the season, but their playoff odds are pretty close to nonexistent at this point. Bednar is putting together his third straight tremendous season. He might not be what you picture when you hear “game-ending reliever,” but numbers don’t lie. He sports a strikeout rate that pushes 30%, rarely walks anyone, and has displayed the kind of consistency that relievers rarely manage. He’s also going to stick around for a while; he won’t reach free agency until after the 2026 season.

It might sound strange, but I think that Bednar’s team control situation makes it less likely that he’s dealt. The Pirates would likely ask for the moon and the stars in return for trading Bednar, because he’s a rare commodity: a proven reliever that will stick around for several future campaigns. If I’m Pittsburgh, I’m asking for a premium prospect in exchange, but I don’t think that either the Diamondbacks or Rangers are in a position to surrender that much of a bounty. There’s an added risk for the acquiring team, too: relievers don’t stay great as frequently as other players do, so those extra years of team control aren’t as amazing as you might first think.

Perhaps I’m way off base on this one, but I just don’t see a fit here. This feels like a trade for, say, the Rays, who have a great farm system but have put together a bad bullpen for the first time in ages. Or how about the Dodgers, who seem to have a lot of hitting prospects they can’t quite find a spot for but also have a terrible bullpen this year? Let’s keep moving in our quest for a way to make either Texas or Arizona a bullpen monster.

David Robertson
Here’s an underrated option: trade with the Mets, who would love to continue to bolster their farm system. Robertson is an ageless wonder; his cutter/curveball combination works as well now as it did a decade ago. In my opinion, he’d be the best reliever in either of our two prospective bullpens right away, and fading into free agency immediately thereafter is more of a feature than a bug given that he is 38.

The closest comparison I have for a Robertson trade is a trade that the Marlins and Blue Jays made last year, when Miami sent Zach Pop and Anthony Bass to Toronto for prospect Jordan Groshans. It’s not quite the same, what with the two-for-one nature and all, but I think it’s a similar amount of reliever value changing hands, and Arizona in particular has no shortage of 45 FV prospects to send out in return. Another comp, if you’re not persuaded by that one: Chris Martin for Zach McKinstry. Martin had a great year last year, and the Dodgers sent out a solid hitting prospect to secure his services. I don’t think the rate for Robertson would be meaningfully different, even though I prefer Robertson to McKinstry.

Scott Barlow
I’m not particularly convinced by Barlow, but he has great stuff, and the Royals are clearly open for business. Barlow is hardly unplayable; he’s working on his sixth straight year of a sub-4 FIP and strikes out a ton of batters. His control is scattershot, and it’s been particularly bad this year, but hey, you can’t have everything. He’s also under team control for the 2024 season, so he can be a solid if sometimes scary setup man next year as well. The Royals probably want more for Barlow than they accepted for Chapman (a 40 and a 35), but that’s still a reasonable deal for two years of plus setup work.

As I see it, those are the best options for assembling a terrifying bullpen to boost the fortunes of upstart contenders. How would I sew these options together? If I were the Diamondbacks, I’d be working the phones with St. Louis right away. Health permitting, Helsley is just what they need to make their bullpen feel fearsome, and Hicks is a nice auxiliary piece. The price might feel steep — Nelson is a potential middle-of-the-rotation starter or impact reliever down the road — but the benefits are huge as well. I’d also call the Royals about Barlow and more or less meet their ask if it’s reasonable; the Diamondbacks’ system is quite deep, and they have real need in the major leagues right now.

For the Rangers, I’m less certain of the right thing to do. They might not truly need a capital-D Dude at the back of their ‘pen; they already have a solid unit with good ninth-inning options. If I were them, I’d kick the tires on Robertson and perhaps one of the White Sox options, but even though Dunning seems extremely likely to regress, potential playoff teams generally don’t trade away starters with a 2.61 ERA in the major leagues. That makes the Cardinals less than perfect trade partners unless the ask on Helsley is a lot different than I’m expecting. Robertson, on the other hand, feels like a perfect fit; trading away Abimelec Ortiz, to pick a random 45 FV prospect from their system, is a cost I’d be willing to pay to shore up a bullpen for the postseason.

Building a Death Star bullpen is an easy way to bulk up your playoff team at the trade deadline. Good teams are increasingly doing so thanks to the reasonable ask for relievers and the sheer number of awesome arms floating around the majors. Here’s hoping the Diamondbacks and Rangers, two of the most enjoyable upstart teams of the year, get in on the party and start scaring people with their relief unit this trade deadline.