Maybe Adam Eaton Should Stay in Right Field

So the Nationals now have Adam Eaton. Adam Eaton is really good! Last year, after moving to right field, Adam Eaton put up a +6 WAR season, thanks to his defensive ratings going through the roof. Washington, though, has some guy named Bryce Harper in right field, so Eaton is going back to center field, where he played up until last year. That will allow Trea Turner to move back to shortstop. That’s the plan, anyway.

But maybe it shouldn’t be. Maybe the Nationals would be better off if they kept Adam Eaton in right field.

You know about Adam Eaton’s wildly divergent defensive numbers already. If you don’t, go read Jeff Sullivan’s post, where he talks all about it, or read August Fagerstrom’s GIF-filled extravaganza from May. This post will still be here when you get back from reading those.

Whenever you have big inconsistencies in defensive data like this, it’s easy to be skeptical of the data itself. But the idea that defensive performance should be static, and performance doesn’t fluctuate naturally like it does on offense, is simply incorrect. Some fluctuations are likely due to the noise in the data, but that shouldn’t be the presumption whenever a guy has inconsistent defensive performances. Sometimes, guys just play differently.

For instance, here’s an explanation for Eaton’s big defensive dip in 2015.

@dschoenfield Shoulder injury in 2015. Didn't have the same arm. Didn't push range as much (less willing to dive). Has a sneaky good arm.

— Doug Padilla (@DougPadilla) December 7, 2016

It’s tempting to just look at UZR or DRS and equate them to range, but Padilla’s right that Eaton’s arm is a big factor here. In fact, it was his throwing, not his running, that made up a bulk of his defensive value last year. Here’s the leaderboard for most runs credited to an outfield due to their thrown arm in 2016, per UZR.

Eaton didn’t just lead the field; he blew it away. Part of that is easily accounted for, as he led the majors with 18 outfield assists, but arm value isn’t just throwing out runners; it’s also convincing them not to run in the first place. So let’s look at some of that data.

According to Baseball-Reference, Eaton fielded 52 singles when a runner was on first base, and 36 times, the runner stopped at second. Among guys who fielded at least 50 balls in that situation, that 69% hold rate was the second best in baseball, behind new teammate Bryce Harper, as both guys blew away the 54% league average. And that’s pretty consistent across the board; Eaton not only gunned down runners who tried to advance, but fewer guys tried to take the extra base against him, recognizing his ability to gun them down.

Because he’s 5’9, Adam Eaton doesn’t look like he has a great arm, but objectively, he really does. In 2015, he was one of just a handful of outfielders who were clocked throwing the ball 100 mph from the outfield, and with health and the move to right field last year, Eaton was able to put his arm to maximum use.

Now, obviously, Bryce Harper also has a great arm, and the Nationals can’t put them both in right field. But given that Eaton’s arm is actually even more of a weapon than Harper’s in saving runs for his pitching staff, and the dominos that would fall if Eaton plays center field as assumed, I think there’s a real case to be made for keeping Eaton in right.

In reality, where the Nationals decide to play these guys will cost one of last year’s starters a regular job, and the vulnerable starters are Danny Espinosa, Ryan Zimmerman, or Jayson Werth. Under the standard assumption that Eaton goes to center and Turner goes back to shortstop, Espinosa is probably the one who stands to lose the most at-bats. But there’s also a pretty good case to be made that he’s the best player of the three.

Here are their 2016 numbers, for instance.

Werth was the best hitter of the three last year, but for an aging corner outfielder with diminishing defensive skills, he wasn’t exactly good. A 101 wRC+ is basically the bare minimum you can accept from a 37-year-old who fields like you’d expect a 37-year-old former catcher to field. And as an aging righty with a slowing bat, it’s not that surprising that almost all of his offensive production came against left-handers; against RHPs, Werth hit just .220/.312/.356, good for just an 80 wRC+.

An 80 wRC+ would have been a hot streak for Zimmerman, though. He was one of the very worst players in the game last year, putting up a 67 wRC+ as a first baseman, and he’s not even particularly great there either. He’s probably not that bad, but the power is diminished, the strikeouts are up, the walks are down, and it’s not clear that Zimmerman is good enough to justify a spot in the line-up anymore either, even if he bounces back to something like an average hitter.

Espinosa, on the other hand, has put up nearly +2 WAR in both of the last two years, thanks to some pretty good defense at shortstop. He’s not Andrelton Simmons or anything, but Espinosa’s an above-average glove at short, and while he’s not a good hitter, he’s also not that much worse than Werth or Zimmerman at this point in their careers. He’s also a pretty good baserunner, and almost never hits into a double play; Zimmerman, in particular, is a double play machine, even after you account for opportunities.

None of these guys are star players, and maybe the best plan will be to just utilize the positional flexibility to rotate based on match-ups, with Turner playing both shortstop and center field depending on what type of line-up Dusty Baker wants to roll out on a given day.

For instance, let’s say you have a flyball guy on the mound; we’ll call this hypothetical pitcher “Max Scherzer“. On those days, OF defense is more important than IF defense, so maybe you stick Turner in center and flank him with Harper in left and Eaton in right. Eaton wasn’t great in center in his debut, but he’s extremely fast and the athleticism should translate with more experience, and Eaton and Harper would be among the best set of corner outfield defenders around. In this alignment, Werth would sit, while the team would play essentially the same infield they had last year; Zimmerman at first, Daniel Murphy at second, Espinosa at short, and Anthony Rendon at third.

If you have a groundball guy pitching — maybe someone named “Tanner Roark” — then perhaps you bench Zimmerman, allowing Murphy to slide over to first base, with Turner at second and Espinosa at short. Roark would get the best infield defense the team can muster, and in that case, Eaton would play center between Harper and Werth.

This is the benefit of having guys who can flex between spots; you don’t have to just outright bench any of these guys. But between Werth, Zimmerman, and Espinosa, I think Espinosa is the one you want to play the most, and the way to do that is probably to let Turner still play a good amount of center field. And given Eaton’s arm, keeping him in right field might be the best way to get the most value out of his defense anyway.

Of course, it’s early, and future transactions could continue to change this whole calculation. But given the three options currently on the roster, I think I’d try to keep Espinosa on the field, and the best way to do that might be to keep Eaton as a right fielder. It’s where he had his best season anyway, and forcing him to move back to center field after his breakout year in right to accommodate more at-bats for Werth and Zimmerman feels like a bit of an unnecessary risk to me.