Momentum Is a Construct: Blue Jays Even World Series at 2-2

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

After a marathon Game 3 on Monday night (and into Tuesday morning), both the Blue Jays and the Dodgers were hoping for length from their starters in Game 4. The Dodgers looked more likely to get it. Toronto starter Shane Bieber lasted just 3 2/3 innings in Game 4 of the ALCS, his most recent start. In fact, he went more than five innings just once over his past four starts, running a 4.96 ERA over that stretch. Los Angeles starter Shohei Ohtani, well, he’s Shohei Ohtani. He had gone exactly six innings in each of his last three starts. He had allowed just three total runs over his past five appearances for an ERA of 1.01. Had Ohtani gone just six innings and no more on Tuesday night, Game 4 might have gone very differently. Instead, the Blue Jays offense exploded for four insurance runs in the seventh inning, and with a convincing 6-2 win, they pulled the World Series into a 2-2 tie.

After the prolonged weirdness of Game 3, Game 4 looked much more familiar. The starters struggled a bit early, then settled down. One team asked a little too much of its starter, then paid the price for bringing in the wrong reliever. You know, like a baseball game. The momentum certainly looked to belong to the Dodgers. They were at home, they’d won two in a row, and they had Ohtani lined up to pitch coming off some of the best performances of his unbelievable career. After a swing during Game 3 resulted in an injury that walks like an oblique strain and talks like an oblique strain and is currently being referred to as right side discomfort, the Blue Jays were without George Springer, both their leadoff man and their best hitter during the regular season. They had taxed their bullpen more thoroughly on Monday, and they had endured the psychic toll of losing that 18-inning marathon. Luckily for the Blue Jays, momentum is mostly a construct.

The Dodgers kicked off the scoring in the bottom of the second. After a one-out walk by Max Muncy, Tommy Edman ripped a single up the middle. Knowing that Daulton Varsho’s surgically repaired right arm is particularly weak, Muncy didn’t hesitate, charging around second (and nearly slipping and falling when he tried to stick the landing on a pop-up slide into third). It’s always a little bit fun to be a baserunner on the base that you’re entrusted to defend. You’re in your normal spot, but the perspective is totally different. It’s kind of like when you were a kid and your parents let you bring your sleeping bag into the living room so that you could go camping in your own house.

Sorry, where were we? The Dodgers had runners on the corners with one out, and Enrique Hernández did what Enrique Hernández does in October. He lifted a sacrifice fly into right field to give the Dodgers a 1-0 lead. The first time through the lineup, Bieber had allowed one run, one hit, and two walks. He had struck out no one. Three of the Dodgers’ seven batted balls were hard-hit.

But Ohtani was about to run into his own trouble. He only had one strikeout the first time through the lineup, and his velocity was down compared to his regular season average (though manager Dave Roberts would say during an in-game interview that Ohtani was intentionally throttling back). He hadn’t allowed much hard contact, but that changed quickly. In the top of the third, Nathan Lukes tomahawked a high fastball into right field for a one-out single. Ohtani then hung a sweeper high and right over the middle to Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is not, strictly speaking, the kind of person to whom you want to hang a sweeper high and right over the middle. Guerrero unloaded on the cement mixer. The vicious swing sent his helmet rattling around atop his head and the baseball beyond the left field wall to give the Blue Jays a 2-1 lead:

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Both pitchers started to figure it out. Ohtani allowed just one baserunner from the fourth inning to the sixth, at one point striking out four straight Blue Jays swinging. Bieber allowed just two baserunners from the third to the fourth, but he ran into trouble in the sixth. Freddie Freeman led off with a laser down the first base line that Guerrero couldn’t quite corral on the short hop. Will Smith followed up with a sharp lineout to center. After a couple hard-hit balls, manager John Schneider came out to the mound, but Bieber convinced him that at just 80 pitches, he was good to stay in the game. Teoscar Hernández immediately made him look like a liar, sending the 81st pitch into center for a line drive single. The Dodgers had runners on first and second with one out, and Schneider came back for the ball.

Left-handed rookie Mason Fluharty appeared for the third time in the series, and he slammed the door on the potential rally, inducing a fly out from Muncy and striking out Edman swinging. That closed the book on Bieber, who finished the night with one earned run over 5 1/3 innings. Despite walking three, allowing eight hard-hit balls, and striking out just three, he allowed just four hits and would end up with the win.

Ohtani’s night ended soon after Bieber’s. Varsho led off the seventh with a single to right field, and then Ernie Clement ripped a double off the wall in left center. Varsho hesitated for a moment as he rounded second base to make sure that the ball wouldn’t be caught, and ended up at third. Roberts called on Anthony Banda to get the Dodgers out of the jam. Although he’d retired 11 of the past 12 batters before the seventh inning, Ohtani’s night was over (at least, as a pitcher).

With runners on second and third and no outs, the Dodgers brought their infield in. The Blue Jays just needed to get the ball into the outfield to score a run. Andrés Giménez did just that, reaching out on a slider and dumping a single into left. The Blue Jays led 3-1 and still had runners on the corners. After Isiah Kiner-Falefa lined out (temporarily into a double play, until the call was overturned on replay), Schneider sent Ty France up to pinch-hit for the left-handed Lukes. France knocked in a run with a weak inside-out grounder to second base. That closed the book on Ohtani, who was credited with four earned runs over six innings. He struck out six, while allowing six hits and one walk. The Blue Jays had tacked on two big insurance runs to bring their lead to 4-1.

With a pair of right-handed hitters in Guerrero and Bo Bichette due up and the game threatening to get away from the Dodgers, Roberts intentionally walked Guerrero and pulled Banda. To the dismay of Dodger fans everywhere, he called upon Blake Treinen, who came into the game with a 9.00 ERA this postseason. Bichette greeted him with a rocket off the left field wall to score Giménez, and Addison Barger followed up with a single into left to score Guerrero. The haters said he couldn’t do it, and they were right. The Blue Jays led 6-1:

From there, Chris Bassitt held the Dodgers scoreless in the seventh and eighth. Louis Varland made things interesting, allowing Edman to cut the lead to 6-2 on an RBI groundout before retiring the final two Dodgers. Four Blue Jays – Guerrero, Lukes, Barger, and Clement – finished the night with two hits, while the Dodgers combined for just six hits total. They’ll still have home advantage in Game 5. With two-time Cy Young Blake Snell lined up to face rookie Trey Yesavage, they’ll have the starting pitching advantage as well. But after four games, this World Series is looking mighty even, and it’s now assured to end back in Toronto.





Davy Andrews is a Brooklyn-based musician and a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @davyandrewsdavy.bsky.social.

41 Comments
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aviariesMember since 2024
10 months ago

This game was an absolutely infuriating watch. Not only were the BABIP gods firmly and strongly on the side of the Blue Jays, not only have we scored 3 runs in our last 20 innings, but I also had to see Blake Treinen in a Dodgers uniform for what feels like the 20th time this postseason. I hate that man.

PepeSilvia
10 months ago
Reply to  aviaries

Jays had 10 of the 15 batted balls over 99 mph. Their xBA was .256 vs Dodgers .272, so fairly close. Jays are also the superior defensive team, esp with Gimenez at short over Bichette.

aviariesMember since 2024
10 months ago
Reply to  PepeSilvia

I’m sure they hit some balls harder and the Dodgers stopped hitting the ball hard after the bullpen came in, but I turned the game off after I saw Treinen warming. Can’t do it.

medler312Member since 2016
10 months ago
Reply to  aviaries

When you’re looking for offense, Alex Call as a pinch hitter is quite the idea.

cowdiscipleMember since 2016
10 months ago
Reply to  aviaries

I too am tired of seeing Dodgers uniforms for what feels like the 20th postseason.

BreadbakerMember since 2022
10 months ago

I’m pretty sure there’s never been a starting pitcher who had to start a game 17 hours after a game in which he’d been on base nine times. He did a fine job, but was asked to pitch into the seventh, as I understand for the first time as a Dodger and for the first time since he’d missed an entire season of pitching after surgery. As a hitter, he was obviously pretty close to a zero in the game. It’s a lot to ask of one guy. I suspect he knew he had to focus his somewhat depleted energy on his pitching, knowing he was pitching without the slightest safety net. But he needed more from his lineup than the rest of the (obviously also tired) Dodgers were delivering.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  Breadbaker

I have no idea if this is correct or not, but it is an interesting thing to consider. Back in 2021 and 2022, Ohtani seemed to show that he could play every day as a two-way player and he didn’t need special rest on the position player side to have him be effective as a pitcher. But we haven’t really tested how far that goes. This is about as extreme a situation as he’s likely to face.

Mario Moreno
10 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

He’s also 30 and he was 26ish then so it makes sense that he needs the rest now

raregokusMember since 2022
10 months ago

I know they’d just played 18 innings the night before so it’s not like he had a ton of great options, but if I were Dave Roberts, I would’ve at least tried to see if I could sneak Mark Prior into uniform to pitch instead of Treinen

Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
10 months ago

Is there a rule that Anthony Banda, Louie Varland and Mason Fluharty have to take high leverage roles in every game?

If so I would like it repealed

rho180
10 months ago
Reply to  Ivan_Grushenko

Is up 6-1 in the bottom of the 9th with no runners on and 5-6-7 due up really “high leverage”? I was mildly relieved that Schneider didn’t panic and put Hoffman in to start the inning.

I Like Big BuxtonMember since 2024
10 months ago
Reply to  Ivan_Grushenko

Varland has pitched in 13 of the Jays’ 15 postseason games this year. They had a five-run lead in the 9th and Bassitt had only thrown 20 pitches. Give Louie a break, if for no other reason than not to give Dodgers hitters another look at him.

TheFightingBurkhardts
10 months ago

Yeah, I was surprised they didn’t just have Bassitt try to close it out given he had been effective, as you said thrown just 20 pitches, and it was the back-half of the order.

LMOTFOTEMember since 2017
10 months ago

Bassitt has been nails for Jays in post season. Sure seems like he would also be their 3rd best starter option right now, ahead of Bieber and Scherzer.

Jason BMember since 2017
10 months ago

So we have to start asking the real tough questions here:

Does Treinen have compromising photos of Dave Roberts? Have his wife and kids hostage in the basement? It has to be one of these things, right?!

sadtromboneMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  Jason B

It’s not like he had a ton of options after 18 innings the previous night, and it makes some sense that if you’re going to put him in a game it should be when your win expectancy is only something like 11%. But I do wonder why Blake Treinen is on the World Series roster and Ben Casparius is not. Maybe Casparius is hurt? Otherwise this seems like a mistake.

PressXToJason
10 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Yeah, unless Casparius is hurt, leaving him off the roster is indefensible. The only mindset I can imagine where he would not inherently have more value than Treinen is if you’re so bought in on the Dodgers’ invulnerability that you think you’ll never need someone for multi-inning mop up duty. Which simply isn’t realistic.

A Salty ScientistMember since 2024
10 months ago
Reply to  Jason B

It was also dumb to not have Treinen issue the IBB, since Banda already faced 3 batters. It’s minor, but why limit flexibility for the sake of ‘stat fairness’ in the World Series?

Jon
10 months ago
Reply to  Jason B

Word is MAGA Treinen has the White House on his side, and a “we can do this the easy way or the hard way” order was issued to Dave Roberts.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
10 months ago

Momentum is not a construct based on the way you’re talking about it. A construct is something that is made up by humans but becomes real because enough people agree on it, and therefore it has consequences for the real world. Examples of constructs are money, markets, curricula, parenting, insanity, marriage (and divorce), and baseball itself. They’re absolutely 100% real.

Momentum, as a description of past events, is an example of narrative, which sometimes people use to justify future action. Other examples of narrative are the Curse of the Bambino, TINSTAAPP, or “Spahn and Sain and pray for rain.” Narratives can be based on reality or fiction (and I think momentum is probably fiction). They’re interesting because people react to them, even if they are not “real”. For example, a manager might decide they want to start a different pitcher or change up the batting order to “counter” the opposing team’s momentum.

There is some fuzziness between these concepts, but I think momentum belongs pretty clearly in narrative rather than construct. Or at least, calling it a “construct” does not bring insight. If a manager decided to ignore “momentum” it probably would not have any effect on the real world. If a general manager decided to ignore the rules of free agency (a type of market, and therefore a construct) he (or she) would be fined / fired / be unable to build a team.

Last edited 10 months ago by sadtrombone
Roger McDowell Hot Foot
10 months ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

I’m going to make the choice not to start citing J.L. Austin in a FanGraphs comment thread and just say that I’m not sure where you’re getting this distinction from, but I think the headline was just a not-that-great attempt to use the sophomoric stoner “it’s not reallly reeeal, man” sense of the term. Surely the most familiar use of the word “momentum” in baseball cliche is “momentum is only as good as the next day’s starting pitcher,” which basically makes the same point.

didaceMember since 2024
10 months ago

Dodger fans bitching about their players not being good enough is amusing. Not quite Yankee fans level, but it’s up there.

Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
10 months ago
Reply to  didace

So you’re saying they need to up their game

sadtromboneMember since 2020
10 months ago

More on topic: I am very much looking forward to the piece on Vlad Jr when this is all done. He’s already fourth in wRAA in a single postseason between 1971 and the present. He’s behind Carlos Beltran, Randy Arozarena, and Barry Bonds. And he still has at least two games to go, maybe three.

That GuyMember since 2024
10 months ago

@Davy Andrews – Thank you for the recap. Apologies for hijacking the thread here, but building off of last weeks “Three Jumps” post I think it’s imperative that you provide a video review of Home Plate umpire John Tumpane’s strikeout call of Myles Straw in the top of the 8th last night. I had to rewind… it was remarkable. (In that one should make remarks about it.)

Thanks in advance!

ichiro262Member since 2024
10 months ago

Fun title. Great write-up. A bit of a letdown of a game, given how spectacular Game 3 was just 17 hours prior.

Jason BMember since 2017
10 months ago
Reply to  ichiro262

Hard disagree – beloved Jays won and I got in bed before 2 A.M. this time.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
10 months ago

Again the umpires almost effected the outcome of the game but, thankfully, replay caught yet another missed call that would have prevented the Blue Jays from breaking the game open in the 7th. This call was close and, in the end, it was properly adjudicated. Admittedly this wasn’t nearly as egregious as Wegner’s nasty little game he played on the Blue Jays in Game 3. Just read Mike Baumann’s article and listen to the Canadian calls to catch their disbelief at what he pulled. With the onerous monster of cheating and fixing games again raising its horrific head in sport it is time to utilize the technology that is now available and make accuracy the only priority and tradition must be set aside.

ichiro262Member since 2024
10 months ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

I’ve said it before and will say it again – it’s 100% Bichette’s fault he got thrown out. Bad and slightly late ball four strike calls happen all the time. What doesn’t happen all the time (or ever, frankly) is a runner paying absolutely no attention and wandering off into an out. Even the Canadian radio broadcast immediately acknowledged it was a mistake by the Blue Jays.

david k
10 months ago
Reply to  ichiro262

I wouldn’t say 100% – that would mean that the umpire has ZERO responsibility to call a strike quickly and clearly, which is clearly false. There’s blame to be put on both people, hence “100%” is just false.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
10 months ago
Reply to  ichiro262

There is no question that Bichette executed a very costly TOOTBLAN but that doesn’t absolve Wegner. Baumann clearly calls him out or his grandstanding and blatant attempt to “show who’s the boss”.

Last edited 10 months ago by bosoxforlife
ichiro262Member since 2024
10 months ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

Sure. Umpire is 100% responsible for calling a ball a strike. And I think it’s a pretty big stretch to assume the grandstanding argument is true, seeing as how the umpire yelled strike at almost the exact same time Varsho turned his shoulder (seriously, watch the video again and listen, you can hear it within a second of the ball hitting the glove).

The visual signal was delayed by about two seconds from the ball hitting the glove, which is late but not insane especially given that he called it audibly pretty much right away.

Varsho didn’t hear it, and he didn’t give himself any chance to see it because of how quickly he turned his shoulder, even if the visual signal came quickly.

So yeah, not 100% Bichette. Maybe 85% Bichette, 12% this first base coach for not paying attention and calling Bichette back to the base, and maybe 3% Varsho for telegraphing that it was a ball so hard that it convinced his half-asleep teammate.

The ump is guilty for a bad call, maaaaaaybe guilty of trying to show up a player. Not guilty of a baserunning error that essentially never happens in many very similar situations.

matthayden4Member since 2024
10 months ago

The baseball season is guaranteed to end in Toronto. Feels surreal as a fan who was too young to appreciate what 1993 meant.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
10 months ago
Reply to  matthayden4

That 1993 team was pretty entertaining. They ran out the #2, #6, and #7 player in batting average that year–Olerud, Molitor, and Alomar. The #1 guy in BA that year played in pre-Humidor Coors and the #3 guy was Tony Gwynn. And then they ran out the league’s best defense too.

The Blue Jays winning the World Series in 1992 felt a little bit like a fluke. The Braves were led by Smoltz, Glavine, and Steve Avery and had Deion Sanders playing center field, along with David Justice throwing lasers from right field. The Braves had a run differential of +113, second only to a weirdly good Brewers team that had given the Blue Jays a run for their money for the division title–the Blue Jays were only at +73. The 1993 Blue Jays winning did not feel like a fluke at all.

Rollie's MustacheMember since 2017
10 months ago

Giménez’s 8-pitch AB in the 7th was a good example of what makes the Jays so annoying and difficult to put away. Banda threw a perfect low and away 0-0 slider to get a chase from a lefty known to do just that. It felt like Banda was in the driver’s seat. But he failed to make another pitch quite as perfect. Giménez took, and fouled, his way into finally getting another slider just close enough to the far edge of the zone to doink it out to left field. And then the insurance runs just kept coming.

david k
10 months ago

Gimenez amazes me. He can look totally overmatched in two previous ABs (both strikeouts), as he did in game one, and in a situation where you think they might pinch hit for him in the 6th inning of game one with the score 4-2 and a chance to break it open, he stays in the game and gets a key single. Then in game 4, after grounding out to the pitcher and striking out, he delivers a key hit AGAIN.

And, of course, there was his unlikely HR against Seattle in the ALCS.

He’s like the Brian Doyle of this year’s playoffs (look him up if you’re too young to remember – 1978).

schneidlerMember since 2016
10 months ago
Reply to  david k

His TWO home runs against Seattle in the ALCS. The M’s win that series if the Jays 7-9 hitters hadn’t gone nuts, while the M’s bottom third turned into pumpkins. In the regular season, the M’s 7-9 hitters tied for 3rd with a wRC+ of 95.

jaysfan39Member
10 months ago
Reply to  david k

Gimenez is having a crazy clutch post season.

Gimenez non RISP this postseason 6 for 40 414 OPS

Gimenez RISP this postseason 7 for 14 1,107 OPS

Roger McDowell Hot Foot
10 months ago

Yeah, that felt like a vintage Jeff McNeil at bat to me. Forget about hitting the ball hard, just keep protecting the strike zone until you can figure out how to slap it into play. It’s been an interesting series for this — seeing how the contact-hitting approach of the Jays and the K-heavy approach of Dodger pitching match up.

david k
10 months ago

This reminds me of 2015. The Mets were going to play either Toronto or Kansas City. As a Mets fan, I was hoping Toronto would win the AL, since i felt the Mets’ starting pitchers could handle Toronto’s hitters, but was concerned about Kansas City’s ability to hit with contact, negating the Mets’ staff swing-and-miss prowess. We don’t know what Toronto would have done, but the way KC played that series validated my worst fears.

This year, I am rooting against the Dodgers, and although I would have liked to see the Ms make their first world series, I figured Toronto’s offense would match up better against the Dodgers.

OnWI1933Member since 2016
10 months ago

Really enjoying a very competitive series between teams with different styles and so many fun players

It’s just so great.