Nationals Take 2-0 Series Lead as a Little Bit of History Repeats

I had a recap half-written in my head after six innings of last night’s pivotal Game 2. It focused, as expected, on the pitching matchup of Stephen Strasburg and Justin Verlander; on how, perhaps more unexpectedly, both struggled in the first inning, each giving up two runs; and how they both settled, despite a tight strike zone and a steady stream of baserunners, into the familiar, soothing rhythms of solid-but-not-dominant pitching performances. (There was a little meditation, too, on the already-iconic Verlander leg throw.) Strasburg struck out seven, and Verlander, with his six, cleared the record for the most postseason punch outs of all time.

In the sixth, Verlander pitched his first clean inning of the game, and Strasburg escaped unscathed from a Yuli Gurriel double and an intentional walk of Yordan Alvarez. Through six, and the two teams were knotted at 2-2; Strasburg, with 114 pitches, was surely done for the night, and Verlander would just as surely be coming in for the top of the seventh.

As the broadcast faded to commercial, I settled into my nest of blankets. I know what this game is, I thought, like someone who doesn’t know what’s about to hit them.

***

The seventh inning, for whatever reason, always carries with it a sort of mystique. It’s the time when you rush to grab your last beers, when everyone stretches and you hear the creaking of your sad, aging joints, when the strange little ritual of “Take Me Out to the Ballgame” is performed. It doesn’t have quite the tension of the eighth and ninth, but the mood is clearly distinct from, say, the fifth; if you’re at the game, you’re probably a little tired, a little out of it, getting a little chilly. On midsummer nights, it’s around the time the sun fades away. And ever since I witnessed the life-changing devil magic of the Jose Bautista Bat Flip Inning, I’ve been unable to stop myself from paying a little more attention when the seventh rolls around. It’s usually normal, just another inning in another baseball game. But you never know. You never know when the fabric of the game will begin to rip — or when it might be rent asunder.

On Verlander’s second pitch of the top of the seventh — a not-high-enough fastball — Kurt Suzuki tore the edge off.

A walk to Victor Robles, and Verlander was out of the game. In came Ryan Pressly. Pressly, who missed much of the latter half of the season due to recovery from arthroscopic knee surgery, has generally not looked sharp in his postseason appearances this year, and ripped some scar tissue in said knee in the series against the Yankees. He quickly fell behind 3-0 on Trea Turner, the first batter he faced; a battle back to a full count couldn’t prevent the walk. Here came another mound visit.

And then — Adam Eaton bunted. Looking back, this was perhaps the first sign that something strange was about to happen. Eaton, you will recall, attempted a bunt in the first inning of Game 1 with a runner on second and nobody out. He instead popped it up, failing to achieve anything of value for the Nationals, and the run ended up not scoring. Since that misadventure, Eaton had had three hits, none of which came on bunt attempts.

This time, though, he bunted successfully (depending on how you interpret the word), giving the Astros an out. Anthony Rendon, the man Eaton bunted to bring up with runners on base, promptly flied out to center for the second out. The Astros now had only to retire Juan Soto — which, to be fair, has often seemed a Herculean task lately — to leave the inning with their deficit still at just the one run.

And then — and then! — the Astros put Soto on base. Not by accident, no. The Astros issued an intentional walk in the bottom of the seventh of Game 2 of the World Series, loading the bases with two out, in a game they trailed 3-2. After not issuing a single intentional walk in any regular- or postseason game this season, now was the time A.J. Hinch chose to exercise that little flourish of the hand.

Our own diligent and prolific Ben Clemens has been on the intentional walk beat this postseason, and we can only hope that he’ll have some commentary on this particular free pass. But for now, we’ll have to make do with the simple consequences of that intentional walk. Which were, to wit:

Oh, yes, and this:

Thanks to an intentional walk, a bounce off a glove, and a single, the Nationals had turned a tenuous 3-2 lead into a commanding 7-2 lead — all with two out. Apparently, this is just what they do now.

But it wasn’t over — far from it, in fact. A pitch in the dirt to Ryan Zimmerman bounced away from Martin Maldonado, moving the two remaining baserunners into scoring position. With a full count, Zimmerman bounced a weak groundball up the third-base line — an infield hit, most likely, so long as Bregman didn’t make a spectacular play.

Bregman didn’t make a spectacular play.

Game 2, as it had been until the top of the seventh, was now in tatters. It was 9-2 Nationals. The aisles streamed with exiting fans; the air hung heavy with the doleful sounds of open-mouthed dismay, that very specifically baseball feeling of doom. Late — too late! — Pressly was removed from the game. And finally, in his second at-bat of the inning, Kurt Suzuki made the elusive third out.

Strange as it always seems after innings like this, the game continued. Facing the immortal Fernando Rodney, his presence itself a reminder of how incredibly unpredictable baseball can be, the Astros went quietly in the seventh. Robles, leading off the top of the eighth, reached on a strikeout, which at this point seemed a little insulting on the part of the baseball gods; he would score on a home run from Eaton, who, now afforded the luxury of a seven-run lead, did not bunt. An unintentional walk of Juan Soto and another pair of back-to-back two-out singles from Kendrick and Cabrera brought the Nationals’ run total to 11. And in the top of the ninth, Taylor added a home run of his own, bringing the final count to 12.

The Astros finally answered with a Maldonado home run off Javy Guerra in the bottom of the ninth, but a solo homer couldn’t begin to repair the damage. With the final out of the game, they left two runners stranded.

Down on the field, as the fans who had stuck it out drifted away, as the Astros disappeared in stunned silence down the steps to their clubhouse, the Nationals celebrated.

***

On an evening in August a bit more than seven years ago, the Nationals were playing the Astros at a sparsely-populated Minute Maid Park. Edwin Jackson was on the hill for the Nats, Dallas Keuchel for the Astros; both pitched well, with Jackson allowing two runs in 5 1/3 innings and Keuchel giving up three runs in six. Each team added a run off the other’s bullpen, but the Nats held the lead until the ninth, when Tyler Clippard blew the save on an RBI double from José Altuve. This contest was headed to extras.

The Astros, at this point, were 36-75. For an Astros fan interested in postseason implications, this game represented about the lowest possible rung on the excitement ladder — as had pretty much the entirety of the season. But for the Nationals, every win was critical. They entered play that night with a narrow three-game lead over the Braves in the NL East, their 65-43 record just one game behind the Reds’ for the NL’s top spot. They were a team firmly in contention for their first postseason appearance since the franchise moved to Washington. To drop a game they’d led in the ninth to one of baseball’s very worst teams would be a profoundly unpalatable outcome.

Roger Bernadina led off the top of the 11th for the Nats with a single. Up to the plate stepped Kurt Suzuki. The indescribable scene that followed has gone down in baseball history:

And closer:

A lot has changed since 2012 — for the Nationals, for the Astros, for baseball. We have the benefit, now, of knowing how 2012 wrinkled the fabric of these two teams’ histories — the first of the NLDS heartbreaks for the Nationals; for the Astros, the beginning of a long, winding road through the valley of death that led them to the bright daylight of the Commissioner’s Trophy. On a surface level, there’s precious little resemblance between that game on August 6 and the game played last night.

And yet, baseball does this thing sometimes: It circles the bases, comes back home. Minute Maid Park might be full and roaring now, the Astros baseball’s most finely-tuned and fearsome machine, and the seventh inning full of the unexpected, the unbelievable — but still, there’s Jose Altuve at second; and still, there’s Justin Verlander, striking out batters in the postseason; and still, Kurt Suzuki gives the Nationals the lead; and still, Fernando Rodney comes in for the hold. Everything old is new again, and the Nationals are somewhere they’ve never been: coming back home with a 2-0 lead in the World Series.





RJ is the dilettante-in-residence at FanGraphs. Previous work can be found at Baseball Prospectus, VICE Sports, and The Hardball Times.

107 Comments
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stever20member
4 years ago

So what exactly is wrong with Pressly? His ERA this postseason is worse than Hunter @%^%$ Strickland. Why would he be allowed to be come into that high leverage situation last night?

The Guru
4 years ago
Reply to  stever20

He’s injured. Best releiver i.mn baseball but he’s injured. Any manager out there could’ve won 120 games with that team but hinch has cost them several. Hinch just collapses mentally when it counts.

OrangeJoos
4 years ago
Reply to  The Guru

Best in baseball, settle down

RonnieDobbs
4 years ago
Reply to  The Guru

I am going to go ahead and completely disagree with that. The starting pitcher got charged with the loss and there is no solid argument that he should have been yanked prior to being the player that “lost” the game. Sure, the bullpen was bad but the game was already over and it was decided by the starters. It was not a series of managerial decisions that contributed to the loss. The players played a game and they decided it.

johnforthegiants
4 years ago
Reply to  RonnieDobbs

It wasn’t over when Verlander left. It was 3-2 Nats and they had a man on 1st with no outs in the top of the 7th. At that points the Nats had a 73.36% chance of winning. That isn’t over at all.

RonnieDobbs
4 years ago

I am obviously not using win %. The fact is that the game was decided in retrospect unless there was some course of action where WAS scores 0 more runs and HOU still gets the one in the ninth off of a better RP. It could certainly happen, but I see no reason to go that far into a fictional scenario. I will probably never care at all about a win % – there is too much reality lost in that number. I don’t get how this is a bullpen discussion is my point. Its not like the wrong RP came in and lost the game – that literally did not happen. AKA the Joe Kelly debacle.

nevinbrownmember
4 years ago
Reply to  stever20

Scar tissue that I wish you saw
Sarcastic mister know-it-all
Close your eyes and I’ll kiss you ’cause
With the birds I’ll share

emh1969
4 years ago
Reply to  stever20

.667 BABIP. 12 basehits but only one for extra bases (a double).

18.90 ERA but a FIP of about 4.10.

90 pitches, 62 Ks, 28 balls, but a 3-3 K/Walk ratio.

Seems like he’s been incredibly unlucky.

RonnieDobbs
4 years ago
Reply to  emh1969

Such is life for a RP. A great of terrible season is the presence or absence of a few blowups.

HappyFunBallmember
4 years ago
Reply to  stever20

Because he’s an awesome pitcher, and both he and Hinch believed in him.

He didn’t pitch THAT badly.

1: The walk was unfortunate. But Turner was swinging at garbage all night. Working him away wasn’t the worst plan.
2: Eaton laid down a perfect bunt. Still, an out is an out.
3: Rendon out. Almost there…
4: IBB to Soto was a managerial decision
5: Kendrick hit a weak ground ball on a pitch on the outside edge of the plate. Bad luck on placement and defense. Hardly Pressley’s fault.
6: Cabrera hit the same pretty good pitch Kendrick did. It found the gap in the defense. A few degrees to one side or the other and maybe an infielder can make a play. Hits happen.
7: Zimmerman hit another weak ground ball and the defense failed. Again.

The wild pitch was bad, but allowing runners to advance without scoring isn’t fatal.

He did throw 13 strikes on 22 pitches, with 3 misses on 10 swings. That’s pretty good.

The end result was absolutely horrible. Sometimes the Baseball Gods just choose to smite.

greenaway55member
4 years ago
Reply to  HappyFunBall

Agree. Not Bregman’s finest 10 minutes of baseball was it?

HappyFunBallmember
4 years ago
Reply to  greenaway55

We all enjoy a good heel. Hell, it’s a fundamental part of the business plan for professional wrestling. Bregman seems to enjoy playing that role, for non-Astros fans at least. An essential part of the arc of a heel’s story, however, is when he gets his comeuppance. Telling a tale of Karmic justice is the entire point. It’s possible that pimping his 1st inning HR was just a little too tempting to those same Baseball Gods.

RonnieDobbs
4 years ago
Reply to  greenaway55

I noticed that he didn’t have a corny celebration for those defensive plays.

Dag Gummit
4 years ago
Reply to  greenaway55

RE Bregman: Yeah. Those were both tough, tough plays. The first one was just enough in the hole to make it sort of look like he might have had a chance. The second one he didn’t have a chance and should have pocketed the ball instead of throwing it on the run.

stever20member
4 years ago
Reply to  HappyFunBall

#5 would be interesting if he had gotten to it. Don’t think he could have gone to 2nd with Soto running. . 3rd obviously not an option. Could he have thrown out Kendrick? Maybe, but no guarantee… It would be interesting to hear the out% chance there.

#6 was a clean hit. Hits do happen. But when they come with the bases loaded, there are problems.

johnforthegiants
4 years ago
Reply to  HappyFunBall

It’s obvious that pressley’s been very unlucky and didn’t deserve the deluge last night. But it’s also obvious that he hasn’t been anywhere near his overpowering self and hinch brought him into a situation where there wasn’t much margin for error. Yes he didn’t look so bad on the hits but he also didn’t look so good even on the two outs, a sacrifice and an almost sacrifice fly for a 2-run lead. And the walk to turner really was bad–there isn’t much worse a time to walk a batter than with a man on 1st and no outs (other than with the bases loaded). The point isn’t that pressley was so bad but rather that this was a point in the game when the astros needed a real shutdown performance and pressley just wasn’t in condition to give one, so it really didn’t make sense for hinch to bring him in.

RPDCmember
4 years ago
Reply to  HappyFunBall

Couldn’t disagree more. I thought the end result was absolutely delightful.

Of course everything else seems on point.

Wu-Bacca
4 years ago
Reply to  HappyFunBall

I agree with all your points, HappyFunBall – Pressly was incredibly unlucky last night and didn’t deserve the line (3 runs in .2 IP) that was hung on him. That said, I think it’s worth pointing out that crazy balls-in-play stuff is essentially the price you pay for not striking guys out, and 0 K’s in 7 batters faced (okay, really 5 if you cut out the sac bunt and the IBB) is not good. He had two strikes on three of those guys and just couldn’t put them away. IOW, he wasn’t as bad as he looked last night, but he wasn’t exactly good either.

johnforthegiants
4 years ago
Reply to  Wu-Bacca

Yes, that’s exactly my point. And that’s how he’s been recently so this didn’t seem to be a good time to use him.

johnforthegiants
4 years ago
Reply to  stever20

No idea. Some wires in hinch’s brain got crossed. Somehow i had the feeling that he thought that the game was already lost even though it obviously wasn’t.

RonnieDobbs
4 years ago

If Bregman plays better defense last night I have a feeling we are not talking about any of this… but we have to talk about something and off-field discussions have come to dominate baseball. On field, I thought it was pretty clear what happened. Sometimes you are the hammer and sometimes you are the nail.

johnforthegiants
4 years ago
Reply to  RonnieDobbs

It wasn’t just that. If Rendon’s fly ball had been deeper it would have have been 4-2 without any bad luck or bad fielding at all.

RonnieDobbs
4 years ago

Even more fun, they could have tried to score on it. That was a nasty hop on that throw – I don’t think even think there would have been a tag applied. It was super shallow though.

Dag Gummit
4 years ago
Reply to  RonnieDobbs

I’m at the point now, thinking that if Bregman simply decides to pocket the ball on the second play, instead of trying to make a throw when there was no chance to get the runner, he gets zero shame. Instead, not only does that throw get tacked on him, but also the coincidental ball in the hole he also didn’t have a chance at is put upon him.

RonnieDobbs
4 years ago
Reply to  stever20

Pressly was a horse for them all year long. The postseason is a small sample. Its a tough situation to analyze. If Bregman gets charged with that first error the ERA is not what we are talking about. I would have gone with him in that spot myself, but you could be right – he could be off.

johnforthegiants
4 years ago
Reply to  RonnieDobbs

Before yesterday, in his last 7 appearances he’d faced 21 batters and struck out 3. That isn’t exactly blowing them out.

RonnieDobbs
4 years ago

You don’t see me talking about postseason samples anywhere or crazy small samples. I don’t think it means much. I am not super Astros fan (I hope they lose) – I don’t watch many of their games. Maybe Pressly is garbage but I thought he was good this year and the second half of last.I would be worried more about all the hits than the Ks. Who is the rock solid option that you think they should go with? I think of Osuna and Pressly as their two trustworthy guys… but I don’t know. It seems to me like most are pretty volatile or kind of specialists in that pen. Lots of talent but more volatility than is ideal. I do appreciate your contribution as I haven’t done any research on the subject.

johnforthegiants
4 years ago
Reply to  RonnieDobbs

Harris has been much better than pressly recently.

stever20member
4 years ago
Reply to  RonnieDobbs

the reason why you would have to make a pretty snap judgement with Pressly is the injuries. He only appeared in 4 innings in September(all against Angels, Seattle). And then had something at the end of the Yankees series- last night was 1st outing since then.