Organizational Rankings: Future Talent – New York Mets

by
March 24, 2010

What to make of the Mets?

The club currently seems to be drifting a little aimlessly and that indecisiveness can be felt in the minor leagues, as well. The club has some interesting players but they can best be described as promising but raw, especially when discussing the likes of Wilmer Flores, Jeurys Familia, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Juan Urbina, and Kyle Allen.

The club has also received mixed results from top draft picks like Ike Davis, Reese Havens, and Brad Holt. The lack of first round picks in ’07 and ’09 has hurt – especially since the club doesn’t seem to believe in playing the over-slot game. The ’07 draft was an absolute disaster. As well, the club hasn’t had much luck scouting later round players, with the odd exception like catcher Josh Thole.

If there is one bright spot, it’s the club’s ability to scout the international market. Some of the key players signed by the Mets organization include perennial prospect Fernando Martinez, Ruben Tejada, Jenrry Mejia, Jefry Marte, Cesar Puello, Flores, Urbina,

At the MLB level, the club has two of the most talented young players in the game: David Wright and Jose Reyes. Unfortunately, they are both coming off of nightmarish seasons. The 27-year-old third baseman is entering his seventh MLB season and he experienced his worst power season in ’09 after hitting just 10 homers in 535 at-bats and posting an ISO rate of .140 (His first season below .217). On the plus side, he still hit more than .300 and stole 27 bases. Reyes suffered through injuries in ’09 and appeared in just 36 games. A thyroid condition will likely bite into his 2010 season.

The 24-year-old Daniel Murphy will man first base in 2010 for the Mets but he’s miscast at the position. He’s not likely to produce more than fringe-average power for the position after posting an ISO rate of .160 over the past two seasons. His wOBA of .318 suggests he’s a platoon player at best.

There is some youth in the starting rotation with Mike Pelfrey (26), and Jon Niese (23) but neither player projects as more than a No. 3 starter. The club is currently toying (stupidly) with the idea of keeping 20 year old Mejia at the MLB level to begin 2010. The club would utilize the top prospect – who has just 10 appearances above A-ball – in the bullpen, much like the Rangers did with Neftali Feliz in ’09, albeit for a small portion of the season.

The club’s insistence on rushing its young players through the system is both baffling and frustrating. It’s had its ups (Reyes) and its downs (Martinez). The big league club has a mix of young players and veterans, but I’m not sure it’s the right mix.





 

Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

23 Comments
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CaseyB
14 years ago

“Reyes suffered through injuries in ‘09 and appeared in just 36 games. A thyroid condition will likely bite into his 2010 season.”

Reyes should lose zero time in 2010 because of the thyroid condition. He has already returned and been cleared to play by the doctors. He doesn’t need any medication and the experts say the thyroid condition is unlikely to come back.

Again, it’s disappointing that these articles appear to be written by people who really didn’t research the players too much before they wrote them.

Davis and Martinez have been ripping the cover off the ball in spring training. Martinez and Thole hit well in the winter too, with Martinez being the MVP of one of the winter league series. He seems to finally be coming into his own. Of course, I understand that doing it in the majors during the regular season is another matter, but it seems these prospects have been given too little credit here.

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snapper
14 years ago
Reply to  CaseyB

You think he’s in shape to play every day, given the pre-existing leg injuries and now the missed time due to the thyroid?

Missed time doesn’t have to be 30 days on the DL. It can be having to sit 1 day in 4 b/c you’re not in top game shape due to lost time.

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CaseyB
14 years ago
Reply to  CaseyB

The pre-existing leg injuries are a non-issue at this point. He was over them by the time the thyroid condition was diagnosed. He was ready to play everyday at that point.

He’s sat on the couch for two weeks as the doctors ordered since then, but he came into camp in excellent condition and you don’t lose all of that in just two weeks. There are also about two weeks left before opening day. So he should be able to recoup what he lost before his first start which should be around the first week of the season, if not opening day.

At this point, today, neither the thyroid condition or last year’s leg injury are factors for Reyes.

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CaseyB
14 years ago
Reply to  CaseyB

Correction: At the most, Reyes will lose only a few days in the beginning of the season due to the thyroid condition as he may need a little more than the two weeks remaining in spring training to get back his stamina after sitting on the couch for two weeks. But the thyroid condition itself is not a factor, nor will it be throughout the year. He may even be in the opening day lineup.

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Marc Hulet
14 years ago
Reply to  CaseyB

1) Reyes was cleared to return to the field yesterday about the same time I wrote the article, and I felt he wouldn’t be at game shape to break camp with the big league club.
2) The issue could very well flare up again… costing him time. This could be a chronic issue (teams do not have to give full disclosure and often don’t) and we really have no idea how it will impact his ability to play at a world-class level so it’s safe to assume he could miss time as a result of the issue… he’s still learning how to deal with the issue through diet, etc. We don’t know the whole story.

If you have ongoing issues with the quality of these articles… as Keith Law says, the door is on the left.

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CaseyB
14 years ago
Reply to  Marc Hulet

There is a good chance Reyes will be in the opening day lineup. And if not, he should be playing by the first week of the season. His thyroidism was caused by a virus. Essentially, he is “cured” now and all the experts have said this type of thyroid issue shouldn’t recur. It’s not like he came down with a chronic disease that will impact his ability to play baseball.

I frequently read fangraphs and have had no issues with the content in the past The organizational write-ups on the Mets are a different matter. But I will take your advice and refrain from reading the organizational rankings in the future.

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Omar
14 years ago
Reply to  Marc Hulet

“Every team’s analysis has been spot on except mine”

At least I’m universally an asshole.

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CaseyB
14 years ago
Reply to  Marc Hulet

I’ve never once ventured an opinion on any other team’s writeup. Not once.

As for your second statement, speak for yourself.

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Shamik
14 years ago
Reply to  Marc Hulet

Reyes’ condition is typically a one-time thing, it really shouldn’t reoccur. He probably should watch himself though, because his overactive thyroid can now become UNDER-active for a couple weeks before settling back down to normal. All things considered, he has been out of action for a long time and has been yo-yo’d around between being active and inactive. He will almost certainly be rusty. I think the Mets may put him on the DL retrospective to the spring and have him miss maybe a week or two just to get him back to playing speed before bringing him in mid-late April. In the end, playing 150 games or so out of a 162 game season is not bad at all. Whats important is that he waits until he is 100% before stepping on to the field.

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TheMagicIsBack
14 years ago
Reply to  Marc Hulet

Marc, I am new to this site and a big Mets fan.

I felt your “door is on the left” comment a bit rude.

Perhaps I am biased, but it appears the Mets are stockpiling talent at the Minor League level. It appears the Mets will have several solid options at 2B and Ike Davis looks like a keeper at 1B. Fernando Martinez is the RF of the future.

The question to me is catcher. Is Thole good enough to catch in NY, will Pena step up and live up to his potential or should the Mets trade for or draft a catching prospect. Is it possible that Bryce Harper falls to the Mets in the draft?

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