Postseason Preview: The 2021 AL Wild Card Game

There was a moment on Sunday when Randy Arozarena had just stolen second base in the eighth inning of a scoreless game. Wander Franco stood at the plate while Nelson Cruz waited in the on-deck circle; the Yankees hadn’t yet recorded an out. Meanwhile, 250 miles down I-95, the Nationals had just wrapped up a three-run fifth, pushing their lead over Boston to four runs. Making his major league debut, effectively wild youngster Joan Adon struck out Rafael Devers on perhaps his best breaking ball of the day. The Blue Jays were cruising. This was the moment when extra baseball felt most likely. Perhaps not All of the Extra Baseball, because of the Mariners’ deficit against the Angels, but some. Instead, to the annoyance of baseball hipsters everywhere, we’re left with a boring ol’ Yankees/Red Sox playoff game at Fenway Park featuring two Cy Young candidates.

This is only the second time the two franchises have met in the postseason since their heated, knuckleball-crushing, curse-breaking epic tilts of the early 2000s, with the other coming when Boston dispatched the Yankees 3-to-1 in the 2018 ALDS, a series that featured many of the same players we’ll see Tuesday, though not the ones directly involved in that series’ extracurricular activity. It feels like we see these teams play one another on national TV constantly (it’s convenient to haul equipment from Bristol, Connecticut to either Boston or New York), but they’ve only faced off six times in the last two-and-a-half months. The Yankees won all of those games, including the last two in dramatic fashion (not that that means anything). Our announced starters finished the season ranked one-two in American League pitcher WAR: Gerrit Cole is set to take the mound for New York, while Boston will start 11-year veteran Nathan Eovaldi. Here are your starting pitcher scouting reports:

Gerrit Cole Scouting Report
Pitch Type Shape Usage Rate Velocity
Fastball Tail+Rise 48% 97-100, t103
Slider Short, Lateral 22% 86-91
Changeup Tailing 14% 87-92
Curveball Two-planed 16% 81-86

It was another dominant year for Cole, who finished fifth in the AL in innings pitched (181.1), was second in K/9 (12.06) and WAR (5.3), and had the fifth-lowest BB/9 among qualified starters (2.03). At times homer-prone, the lone unfavorable byproduct of his stylistic shift to modern power pitching while with Houston, Cole’s HR/FB% was in line with the major-league average this year at 13.5%.

Cole has used his changeup more this season than ever before, borrowing evenly from his other offerings to nearly triple its usage (14%) compared to last year (5%). When Cole was an amateur prospect, there were scouts who thought that his changeup would become his best secondary weapon (he hadn’t yet incorporated a curveball). He began to learn a curveball from A.J. Burnett while with Pittsburgh; Houston leaned into his ability to spin the ball, de-emphasizing the changeup.

Speaking of spin, the vertical movement on Cole’s fastball and curveball dipped just before MLB implemented in-game checks for foreign substances in late June, but has slowly been returning to normal ever since.

Here are my notes on how Cole has approached Red Sox hitters in his four starts against Boston this year:

Gerrit Cole Usage vs the Red Sox
Hitter Approach
Enrique Hernández Heavy slider usage away from Hernández, also a fair number of high-finishing changeups.
Kyle Schwarber Schwarber’s NL start and injury mean just a 15-pitch history here, mostly fastballs.
Xander Bogaerts Fastballs and sliders away made up 28 of the 34 pitches Cole has thrown Bogaerts.
Rafael Devers Almost no sliders, with everything up or away vs. Devers. Lots of backdoor curveballs.
J.D. Martinez A near even split of fastballs & sliders; the sliders finish in-zone more than usual.
Alex Verdugo Cole’s mix vs. Verdugo is close to his overall pitch usage.
Hunter Renfroe 40 pitches, 55% of them a mix of Cole’s two breaking balls, usually out of the zone.
Christian Vázquez 26 pitches, mostly fastballs/sliders with the occasional get-me-over curveball
Christian Arroyo Only 11 pitches, mostly letter-high heaters
Bobby Dalbec An even fastball/slider mix across 17 pitches.

Opposing starter Nathan Eovaldi has been around the block. He debuted 10 years ago for a 2011 Dodgers team that was also experiencing Clayton Kershaw‘s and Kenley Jansen’s ascendance, then was part of the talented (but ill-fated) bait-and-switch Marlins teams of the new ballpark era before joining the pressure cooker of the AL East, where he’s continuously improved. It’s all culminated in the best season of Eovaldi’s career, as for the first time he is missing bats while also staying healthy.

Nathan Eovaldi Scouting Report
Pitch Type Shape Usage Rate Velocity
Fastball Tail+Rise 42% 95-100, t102
Cutter Short, Lateral 12% 91-95
Slider Short 2-to-7 Sweep 14% 84-89
Curveball Long 2-to-7 sweep 19% 76-81
Splitter Sink/fade, cuts a few of them 13% 85-89

Even during a decade-long career spent entirely as a starter, Eovaldi has just two seasons (2014, ’21) in which he made more than 30 starts, and he’s punched tickets at a much higher rate this season (9.63 K/9 in ’21 versus just 6.40 in ’14). The result was a season tops in the AL in terms of WAR (5.6), while Eovaldi also posted the AL’s lowest FIP among qualified arms (2.79, third-best in all of baseball). All of this has come amid a slight downtick in velocity, though Eovaldi evolved via a more distinct cutter/slider combination, throwing many more of the latter than he previously had since joining Boston:

Eovaldi pitched a 2.2 inning dud against the Yankees on September 24. His curveball has been bleeding downward movement all year, but he hasn’t had a sustained drop in overall performance and has chugged along as a mostly-dominant starter all year. Here how he’s approached the Yankees in the six starts he’s made against them:

Nathan Eovaldi Usage vs the Yankees
Hitter Approach
Gleyber Torres Eovaldi works the bottom of the zone against Torres and throws more sliders than is typical.
Anthony Rizzo Just five pitches against Rizzo, all fastballs and curveballs.
Aaron Judge Eovaldi’s mix vs. Judge is in line with his normal usage, with fastball locations in on his hands.
Giancarlo Stanton Letter-high fastballs and breaking stuff away from Stanton.
Joey Gallo Eovaldi has barely seen Gallo (just 17 pitches), mostly working him down-and-in
Gio Urshela Mostly fastballs and cutters up and away from Urshela.
Brett Gardner Eovaldi’s cutter usage more than doubles against Gardner.
Gary Sánchez Emphasis on sliders off the plate away from Sánchez.
Rougned Odor Mix is in line with normal usage, with emphasis on hard stuff (fastball, cutter) at the letters.

In The Bullpen
Aaron Boone has been extremely careful with his reliever deployment during the last week, a luxury perhaps afforded by the Yankees’ position relative to the other Wild Card contenders. None of their relievers worked on back-to-back days during the last five games of the season. There’s still some volatility here, but not all of it is bad. Jonathan Loáisiga missed most of September with injury and just returned, but his arm strength has been intact. Luis Severino has made just four appearances in the big leagues since returning from his TJ rehab, and his velocity has been climbing (though it remains well below his pre-injury levels). Michael King has also enjoyed a velo spike since moving to the bullpen full-time. If things go sideways for Cole, the Yankees have the weapons to bridge the middle-inning gap.

Alex Cora didn’t have the same luxury of a lead in the standings and has been throwing relievers more aggressively. During the same stretch during which no Yankees threw on back-to-back days, six Sox did, including four straight games from Ryan Brasier, and three from Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino. Nick Pivetta threw 87 pitches on Thursday, then pitched in relief on Sunday. Garrett Whitlock came off the IL right before Game 162. The built-in off day helps cushion Boston’s bullpen.

Miscellaneous Observations
Watch Gary Sánchez’s receiving. Last season he was setting up so early that opposing runners could tell what pitch was coming based on his footwork and relay that information to hitters from second base. Sánchez’s pitch tipping was so bad last year that it was a part of why Kyle Higashioka got more reps late in the season. On Sunday against the Rays, with a runner on second, Sánchez was deliberately setting up in decoy locations early, then adjusting his footwork to receive the actual pitch once his hurler had begun their delivery.

Yankees rookie Luis Gil had a rocky final outing at Triple-A, recording just one out, walking two, and giving up a dinger. He made those three great spot starts in August but has posted a 5.14 ERA over the last month.

Red Sox leather-wizard José Iglesias, once a Sox prospect, isn’t eligible for postseason play because he didn’t join the club until after the calendar turned to September. Christian Arroyo will fill in, which means Alex Cora doesn’t have quite the same late-game infield defense upgrade in his toolkit.

This weekend proved costly for both teams from an injury perspective. DJ LeMahieu went on the 10-day IL yesterday with a sports hernia; since this piece was initially published, the Yankees have announced that Andrew Velazquez will play short, with Gleyber Torres at second base and Gio Urshela at third. Meanwhile, J.D. Martinez is not on the roster after he twisted his ankle tripping over a base on his way to the outfield on Sunday. The Red Sox have announced that Kyle Schwarber will DH, with Bobby Dalbec playing first. Kevin Plawecki will catch.

This piece has been updated to reflect the news that J.D. Martinez did not make the playoff roster and to reflect each team’s announced lineup.





Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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Manco
2 years ago

I heard that Plawecki will be starting at catcher over Vazquez.

kryten83
2 years ago
Reply to  Manco

and Higashioka will be at catcher for the Yanks – Cole’s personal catcher. Sanchez will likely be on the bench, Stanton will take up the DH slot with Gallo/Gardner/Judge the outield.

Anon
2 years ago
Reply to  kryten83

Yep, other than opening day and a short IL stint after the AS break, Cole pitched exclusively to Higashioka.

steveo
2 years ago
Reply to  Anon

Absolutely absurd that a pitcher needs a personal catcher. Especially considering Cole has been terrible in September. Higashioka has a .246 OBP and that *includes* his torrid April. Gary isn’t great at the plate either but ~25 points in wRC+ is a massive difference. He has to pinch hit for Higashioka after Cole is out of the game or Boone doesn’t have a clue what he’s doing.

jankees1991member
2 years ago
Reply to  steveo

Let’s not sit here and pretend like this is Cole “demanding” he throw to Higgy, and that pitchers prefer to throw a much more defensively sound backstop. Kluber has been throwing to him, too. The two most experienced pitchers on our team have been exclusively pitching to Higashioka, go figure?

Not a coincidence, IMO. Guys with nasty breaking stuff are more comfortable throwing to a more competent defensive catcher that they trust will stop their curveballs in the dirt. Gary makes our pitchers worse because they don’t nearly trust him as much. I really hope they non-tender him this offseason.

kryten83
2 years ago
Reply to  steveo

Higgy’s been very bad but Gary is only a league average hitter now. I’d take the better receiver if it makes Cole more comfortable.

Kyle may run into one anyway, his swing and batted ball results are a good match for Fenway (51% flyball, 46% pull).

steveo
2 years ago
Reply to  kryten83

I’m sure Kyle is a nice guy, but he’s feeble at the plate. 25 points in wRC+ is MASSIVE. Gary Sanchez isn’t what he used to be, but he’s far more likely to pop one up and over the green monster. Also Higashioka is atrocious at throwing out baserunners. Maybe not a big deal, but It’s a Thing To Watch. Higashioka will probably only get two at bats tonight anyways, so it shouldn’t matter too much.

hughduffy
2 years ago
Reply to  steveo

Greg Maddux, Eddie Pérez, Charlie O’Brien, Paul Bako, Henry Blanco, Tim McCarver, and Steve Carlton all disagree about the absurdity of a pitcher having a personal catcher.

MikeDmember
2 years ago
Reply to  steveo

Well, since July 21 (arbitrary begin point warning), Sanchez is hitting .176/.255/.338, while Higashioka is slashing .167/.214/.344. Pretty large chunk of the season there, and the most relevant (meaning recent) data. Considering Higashioka is a stronger pitch framer and is Cole’s preferred catcher, then there really is no argument for Sanchez starting this game. A Wild Card game is not the time to switch things up with your ace pitcher and have the two try to figure out a rapport. Sanchez is still more dangerous at the plate when he’s in one of his hot streaks, but he’s not right now. No matter. You are likely going to see both in this game, unless Cole pitches 7 or 8 innings. The Yankees are carrying a third catcher so they can pinch hit for Higashioka, insert Sanchez, and not worry about a catcher injury.

Despite what I wrote below, I guess I do have a prediction. The key to this game is Cole. The betting line has the Yankees as slight favorites, but if I was a betting man (I’m not), I’d bet the Red Sox. Cole has not been the same since he came back from the hamstring injury. He’s not quite finishing his pitches, and his command is off. That appears to indicate he’s not fully healthy. Boone often reacts slowly, so if Cole if off, this game could get out of hand quickly. Meanwhile, Eovaldi has pretty much owned the Yankees since putting on a Red Sox uniform outside of one start.

Betting on one game is silly in baseball, but I don’t believe the betting line is correctly factoring in Cole’s inconsistency post the hamstring injury, Boone’s weird passive approach to critical game situations, and Eovaldi’s strong pitching against the Yankees.

sbf21
2 years ago
Reply to  MikeD

Very prescient.