Projecting the Prospects in the Yankees-White Sox Trade

The Yankees plugged holes at first base and in the bullpen last night when they traded for Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle. In exchange, they sent Tyler Clippard to the White Sox, along with prospects Blake Rutherford, Ian Clarkin, and Tito Polo.

Below are the projections for the three players whom the White Sox receive. WAR figures account for the player’s first six major-league seasons. KATOH denotes the stats-only version of the projection system, while KATOH+ denotes the methodology that includes a player’s prospect rankings.

Blake Rutherford, OF (Profile)

KATOH: 1.0 WAR
KATOH+: 2.7 WAR

The Yankees took Rutherford 18th overall in last year’s draft out of high school. He’s spent his first professional season at the Low-A level, hitting .281/.342/.391. Altogether, he’s been a bit underwhelming, especially since his performance has been helped by a .341 BABIP. His 18% strikeout rate isn’t bad, per se, but it’s a little high considering the low level of competition he’s faced, especially given his lack of power. Defensively, Clay Davenport has him as a -7 defender in just 36 games in center this year, although that sample is obviously tiny. Additionally, Rutherford is already 20 years old, making him a year older than most 2016 high-school draftees.

There’s more to Rutherford than his stats, however, as he possesses an impressive collection of physical tools that made him a first-round talent just 13 months ago. Eric Longenhagen ranked him No. 40 on his preseason top-100 list and wrote a glowing scouting report.

Rutherford’s innate feel for hitting is the most enticing aspect of his profile. Everything he does in the box looks natural and comfortable and he doesn’t need to overswing to produce loud contact. He can drop the bat head and golf out pitches down and in, even if they’re hard, adjust to breaking balls and takes patient, sometimes passive, at-bats. The contact/on-base profile is very favorable and, while some were slightly concerned about Rutherford’s age relative to his peers on draft day, his track record of hitting against them in travel ball and during showcases is indicative of future success.

Rutherford has above-average raw power right now, and his frame suggests at least another half-grade of it is coming. Given Rutherford’s ability to work himself into favorable counts, where he can have a rip or two at a hittable fastball, I think most of that raw power will actualize in games at maturity.

Defensively, Rutherford is currently a center fielder, but he’s a 50 runner (55 underway) who will likely slow down as he ages and move to a corner. I have a 45 on his arm based on what I saw on the showcase circuit last summer, something I watched closely after I was made aware of the shoulder issue he had as a junior. He fits in left field for me, and I think the bat will play. He’s a potential middle-of-the-order hitter and the odds-on favorite to be the first prep bat from the 2016 draft to reach the majors.

While KATOH sees Rutherford as a likely fourth outfielder, that pessimism does not mean he’s a failed prospect. He’s a toolsy, 20-year-old with a limited professional track record, so we shouldn’t put too much emphasis on his stat line. That said, his performance so far counts as relevant data, and he’s underperformed his draft pedigree to date.

To put some faces to Rutherford’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps. I calculated a Mahalanobis distance between Rutherford’s Low-A performance and every Low-A season since 1991. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

*****

Tito Polo, OF (Profile)

KATOH: 2.6 WAR
KATOH+: 1.5 WAR

A perfect prospect foil to Rutherford and Clarkin, Polo lacks much in the way of pedigree but has nonetheless performed at every level. In split time between High-A and Double-A this year, he’s slashed a solid .298/.358/.446 with 25 steals. This is strikingly similar to his .289/.359/.447 line from 2016 between two levels of A-ball. Polo’s been especially hot of late, slashing .378/.435/.592 in his last 25 games. Polo came to the Yankees from the Pirates in the Ivan Nova deal last summer and caught KATOH’s eye as a super-deep sleeper prospect in the preseason.

Polo is 5-foot-10 left fielder without much power, which likely explains why he gets no love from evaluators. He doesn’t look the part of a prospect. Nonetheless, he’s been an excellent baserunner in the minors and has now shown that he can hit Double-A pitching. The 22-year-old may have a big-league career ahead of him, even if it’s as a part-time left fielder.

*****

Ian Clarkin, LHP (Profile)

KATOH: 0.5 WAR
KATOH+: 0.3 WAR

Like Rutherford, Clarkin is also a former first-round pick whose professional performance has underwhelmed. Though he was drafted back in 2013, injuries have slowed his climb up the minor-league ladder and he’s yet to throw a pitch above A-ball. He sat out all of 2015 with an elbow injury and also missed a big chunk of 2016 with a torn meniscus.

Clarkin has turned in a sparkling 2.61 ERA at the High-A level this year, though his peripherals — especially his strikeout rate — suggest he hasn’t been anywhere near that dominant. He’s struck out just 19% of the batters he’s faced, up only slightly from last season’s 17% mark. He’s also walked a 9%, which is worse than league average. He’s done a good job of keeping the ball in the park but not at keeping the ball out of play.

Eric Longenhagen ranked Clarkin as a 40 FV prospect over the winter, which is roughly the equivalent of a swingman or middle reliever.

His fastball sits 88-92 with a little bit of movement. He has an above-average, big-breaking curveball. He’s also shown an ability to pitch more heavily off of his fringe-average changeup on nights when the curveball isn’t working or as a change of pace in fastball counts. He also has a below-average slider with which he only began working last season.

With middling stuff, Clarkin’s ceiling is that of a No. 4/5 starter — maybe a solid No. 4 if his command maxes out — and he’s a good athlete (he was going to play baseball and soccer at San Diego had he not signed out of high school) with some projection in that area. He carries heavy risk because of the injury history.

Clarkin has missed a lot of development time, so one could reasonably argue that he has more room to improve than your typical 22-year-old, High-A pitcher. But even so, there’s very little to like about his recent performance. He hasn’t been close to dominant against weak competition, despite repeating the level. And unlike Rutherford, he no longer has the sexy scouting report to justify glossing over his lackluster numbers.