Reasons to Believe in Danny Salazar

We can’t ever be sure exactly who a player is. Some guys are easier to project than others. Some guys have many years of data and consistent results. Guys like Hunter Pence or Ben Zobrist. Other guys have minimal data and inconsistent results. Danny Salazar is a guy like that.

Nevertheless, a large portion of what we do is try to figure out exactly who players are. We can’t have a definitive answer as to what a player’s true talent level is, but we do have data. We do have video, and we do have people inside the game with whom to converse. Let’s combine these three things and try to figure out what to make of Danny Salazar.

Our subject is Danny Salazar. Our data is coming from BrooksBaseball, TexasLeaguers and, of course, FanGraphs. Commentary will be supplied from a conversation I had with Indians pitching coach Mickey Callaway before their game Sunday against the White Sox.

In 2013, Salazar made his MLB debut and was amazing through 10 starts. Then, he was generally terrible over eight starts to begin the 2014 season before being sent to the minors. Since being recalled, he has been even more amazing than he was in 2013. Because these are all conveniently similar sample sizes, let’s break Salazar’s career thus far into three samples, convert the data into a table and compare and contrast:

Danny Salazar’s career
	GS	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/9	FBv	Zone%
2013	10	3.12	3.16	30.8	7.1	1.21	95.9	52.3
2014 Pt. 1	8	5.53	4.70	25.5	9.2	1.77	93.8	46.0
2014 Pt. 2	8	2.30	2.60	23.6	5.8	0.38	95.1	53.2

The guy in the middle looks quite a bit different than the guy on the top and the bottom. The guy in the middle walked a ton of batters. The guy in the middle gave up a ton of homers. The guy in the middle lost two full miles per hour off his fastball and the guy in the middle couldn’t put the ball over the plate.

Let’s go to Mickey Callaway for a bit of an intro to the analysis:

“I think its kind of the way he’s always eased into the season,” Callaway said. “When you’re in the minor leagues, you kind of ease in – you’re on a limited pitch count your first month, you’re working on your pitches and working on command, things like that. He’s never had to come out April 4th and win a game. His velocity average in April is usually 92. In September, it’s 96. It’s just the way he’s kind of programmed himself over the years.”

This is an OK start. Salazar is a young kid whose career-high in innings pitched was 107 before throwing 145 last year. This year was the first time he was thrown into the fire at the beginning of a major league season and he struggled. That’s understandable. It’s forgivable.

But it’s not good enough. First, a guy has got to figure out how to start a season without getting clobbered if he ever wants to be successful, so this is kind of a one-time excuse. Second, a guy doesn’t lose two ticks off a fastball and see his results change this dramatically without something fundamental being off. We can’t ignore the fact that Salazar sustained a minor injury in Spring Training that landed him on the disabled list after he was sent down. But as is always the case, everything starts with mechanics:

“I think what it is is he’s using his legs a little more,” Callaway said. “He’s dipping down a little bit more to really get that leg drive. Early in the season – before he started getting going – he had a higher arm slot, trying to throw the ball down instead of really using his legs and getting his head out away from his body.”

You probably don’t think Mickey Callaway is a liar, but in case you do, here is proof of Salazar’s mechanical changes in the form of a release point chart from his first eight starts to his most recent eight starts:

Now we’ve got something. The ball is being released lower and the ball is coming more from the third base side of the infield.

We’ve seen the data. We’ve started to hear from Callaway. Now let’s head to the tape. The top images you’ll see are from a start against the White Sox in May, when he walked three guys in five innings and allowed seven hits and a homer. The bottom images are from his most recent start, a complete game shutout against the Tigers:

This is just the beginning of Salazar’s motion, and, predictably, there’s not much of a difference. Let’s move on to the next part of his delivery:

Here’s our first clue. Something that was evident ever so slightly in the first screengrab becomes much clearer in this one, and it goes back to what Callaway said about Salazar’s leg drive.

The drive hasn’t started quite yet, but pay attention at Salazar’s posture and balance. In the top clip from May, Salazar is standing upright with his shoulders level. In the bottom image from Wednesday, Salazar’s front shoulder is lowered towards home plate. His momentum is already beginning to carry him through the pitch. This helps generate the leg drive of which Callaway speaks. That drive helps him gain velocity,

and, perhaps more importantly, keep the ball down.

“He was getting on top of the ball and not driving down,” Callaway said of Salazar early in the season. “He was staying tall, easing in with that high slot.”

Moving on:

Here we are just before Salazar’s forward arm action begins. This is the most drastic change in Salazar’s mechanics before and after his trip to the minors. I shouldn’t need to point out to you what’s different. The small thing is the front foot, which is now direct to the plate rather than sweeping in from the side. The big one is the glove hand.

“One thing we did notice and identify in his mechanics is that he was getting way too high with his lead arm, which would cause a higher release point,” Callaway said. “Last year, when he was going good, he still had it up but it was just above his front shoulder.”

The top image looks like a wild gunslinger who might fire the ball over the backstop on any given toss. The bottom image looks like a guy in complete command of where he’s throwing each and every pitch. And hey, whaddya know! His rate of pitches in the strike zone is up from 46% to 53% and he’s cut his walk rate from just over 9% to just under 6%.

Last but not least, the release point:

This is where it all comes full circle. You can clearly see the differences in the above release point chart reflected in this screengrab. No longer is Salazar getting on top of the ball. No longer is Salazar struggling.

There’s something else Salazar is no longer doing, too. That is throwing his changeup to right-handed batters. Over his first eight starts, righties saw Salazar’s changeup 11% of the time overall and 25% of the time with two strikes. They crushed it to the tune of a 1.385 OPS. Since returning from the minors, Salazar has thrown righties the changeup just 4% of the time overall and 11% with two strikes. A righty hasn’t recorded a hit off Salazar’s changeup yet.

“I don’t think it was anybody’s idea, I think it just happened because his slider got a little better,” Callaway said. “He’ll still get the occasional strikeout with the changeup versus righties, he’s just not using it as much as a secondary pitch against righties because his slider is more consistent.”

The numbers support Callaway’s claims. Before his trip to the minors, Salazar was throwing his slider for a strike 22% of the time and getting swings and misses 13% of the time. Since being called up, he’s throwing his slider for a strike 35% of the time and getting whiffs on 18% of those swings.

Was Salazar’s loss of mechanics injury related, or does he just have a hard time repeating his delivery? These are the types of things that make it impossible to pinpoint exactly who or what a player is. But we’ve got data, we’ve got video and we’ve got people in the game who coach these guys. You can believe in the data. You can believe in the video. You can believe in Mickey Callaway. The only thing that’s left to believe in is Danny Salazar.