Reid Detmers Commands His Fate

Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Reid Detmers has saved his career — again.

Detmers, if you weren’t aware, is a top 10 starting pitcher to this point in 2026. He has accrued 2.0 WAR, which is slightly more than Chris Sale, Max Fried, and Jesús Luzardo. If it weren’t for Cristopher Sánchez, Detmers might have a case as the best lefty starter in baseball right now. He’s also been the Angels’ best pitcher, even a step ahead of José Soriano, who burst onto the national stage with a red-hot April before cooling in recent weeks. Detmers has kept plugging away, quietly — surprisingly — excelling in the background.

If you’d told me in 2022 that Detmers would be a top 10 starter in baseball by 2026, I would have said, “Sure, that sounds reasonable.” That was his first “full” season in the majors, and he posted a 3.79 FIP with fine peripherals. Yes, he got sent down for about a month in the summer to work on some things, but it was a solid rookie season overall. He even showcased his ceiling with a no hitter that May.

It’s what happened in the seasons that followed that makes this one of the most unexpected early performances of the year. Detmers didn’t improve in 2023. He struck out more batters, which is good, but he developed a pesky command issue that resulted in more walks and home runs. And things got worse in 2024. He again boosted his strikeout rate, and he again gave up more walks and home runs than he had the year before. By June, the Angels had seen enough and sent him down to Triple-A. They recalled him in September for five final starts, and when he returned? Even more strikeouts, even more walks, and even more homers.

Detmers looked like an obvious reliever candidate, and the Angels agreed, moving him to the bullpen in 2025 to salvage what looked like a dwindling career. It was a perfect match. He ditched his broader starter’s repertoire for a simple three-pitch mix. His stuff ticked up, with his fastball velocity leaping from 93.8 mph in 2024 to 95.8 mph out of the bullpen. For the fifth year in a row, Detmers raised his strikeout rate. But for the first time as a big leaguer, he cut back on the walks and homers. He made 61 appearances out of the bullpen and turned in a 3.12 FIP, making him one of the 50 or so best relievers in the majors.

This was about as big of a pitching development success as the Angels have had in the 2020s. Again, Detmers was a perfect candidate for this transition, and he executed it flawlessly. That’s why it was odd to hear rumblings of a return to the rotation. Even in the middle of last season, the Angels seemed set on — and convinced of — Detmers’ future as a starter. Here’s what former manager Ron Washington told The Athletic in June 2025:

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“That’s just a prelude to him getting back in the rotation,” Angels manager Ron Washington said of Detmers’ success out of the bullpen. “Now he has learned how to get outs, because when you come out that bullpen, it’s about one thing: getting outs. And getting them as quickly as possible. When Reid Detmers gets back into the rotation, he’s going to be a force to be reckoned with.”

It’s also just not that common for anyone to go from a full-time reliever to a full-time starter. Between 1962 and 2025, only 20 pitchers made at least 30 appearances as reliever in a season, only to make at least 10 starts the next.

Detmers is now the 21st, and he’s “on pace” to be among the best:



Reliever to Starting Pitcher Converts
Name Year Team GS IP FIP K% BB% WAR
Matt Morris 2001 STL 34 216.1 3.05 20.4% 5.9% 6.1
Reid Detmers* 2026 LAA 31 178.0 2.97 28.5% 7.6% 5.2
John Smoltz 2005 ATL 33 229.2 3.44 18.2% 5.7% 5.2
Ryan Dempster 2008 CHC 33 206.2 3.41 21.8% 8.9% 4.8
Jaret Wright 2004 ATL 32 186.1 3.29 20.4% .9.0% 4.5
Adam Wainwright 2007 STL 32 202.0 3.90 15.4% 7.9% 3.7
John Candelaria 1986 CAL 16 91.2 2.52 22.2% 7.1% 3.0
Seth Lugo 2023 SDP 26 146.1 3.25 23.2% 6.0% 2.9
Jeff Samardzija 2012 CHC 28 174.2 3.55 24.9% 7.7% 2.7
Mike Minor 2018 TEX 28 157.0 4.43 20.6% 5.9% 2.5
Tyler Glasnow 2019 TBR 12 60.2 2.26 33.0% 6.1% 2.3
*From “on pace” leaderboard: Detmers 12 starts, 68.0 innings, 2.0 WAR as of 6/3/26

If you were to watch a Detmers start from 2024 and then one from 2026 back-to-back, you likely wouldn’t notice much difference. His windup is the same, albeit a bit quicker now. His arm angle is essentially the same. His pitch mix is the same, with a fastball, slider, changeup, curveball, and rare sinker all thrown at roughly the same rates. The radar gun flashes the same, too, with the velocity bump now gone. This still looks like Reid Detmers. And yet, he’s having success now that he wasn’t before.

That’s because Detmers didn’t need to fundamentally change his identity as a starter. He’s always had a nice, broad arsenal, with a range of movements and velocities. He’s always proven highly capable of missing bats. No, his failure as a starter on the first go ’round — and what’s made him successful early in 2026 — all comes down to command: throwing the ball in the strike zone, and ideally avoiding the center. He wasn’t doing that before. He is doing it now. Not much else has changed, and the effect has been extraordinary.

It’s interesting to see how our various stuff and command metrics have changed when contrasting Detmers’ poor showing as a starter in 2024, his excellence as a reliever in 2025, and his success back in the rotation this year:

Reid Detmers Stuff+ Metrics
Stuff+ FA SL CU CH All
2022 99 111 97 95 101
2023 93 113 106 96 102
2024 102 120 98 93 104
2025 114 126 102 95 115
2026 101 109 103 102 104
Location+ FA SL CU CH All
2022 99 98 104 100 100
2023 102 95 105 101 100
2024 96 91 109 107 98
2025 110 112 111 129 111
2026 105 119 108 108 108
Pitching+ FA SL CU CH All
2022 99 103 99 97 99
2023 96 107 102 102 102
2024 99 102 106 106 101
2025 123 126 132 110 133
2026 105 124 104 111 110

We can see his stuff bumped up out of the bullpen, and has since returned to where it was before. The two ticks he gained on his fastball as a reliever are gone. What’s interesting is that his command improved in the bullpen, and he’s maintained those gains now that he’s back in the rotation. It seems like less of a mechanical adjustment and more related to his approach. In that same article from The Athletic I referenced above, Detmers, his teammates, and the org talked about how the bullpen forced him to shift his mindset from trying to set up hitters on the edges, to simply attacking the zone with his best stuff. That’s exactly what he’s doing in 2026.

Let’s look at his four-seam fastball. It’s the pitch he throws the most to hitters on both sides of the plate, and he throws it a lot both 0-0 and when he falls behind. It’s his “strike” pitch, in other words. The ideal strike pitch is generally in the zone, but not down the middle. We can see where Detmers was throwing that pitch in 2024 (left) versus 2026 (right):

The biggest, most obvious change is in that top plot against lefties. In 2024, he was trying to ride the rail, often missing above the zone for a ball. Detmers struggled with walks in 2024 against everyone, but especially against lefties, and the fastball was generally what he threw for ball four. That isn’t ideal for a strike pitch. This year, he’s getting the pitch more down and out. It’s catching a lot of the zone, and it’s getting hit hard when batter’s make contact. But they’re whiffing on the heater more often this year, and it’s ultimately serving its purpose as a strike-getter. Detmers’ approach to the fastball against righties doesn’t seem too different from 2024, though it’s generating a lot of fly balls and pop outs this year.

The slider is where it gets interesting:

The pitch has been much better located to lefties. He used to hang it middle-middle all the time. This year he’s landing it perfectly in that low-and-away part of the zone. Lefties haven’t been able to do much with it beyond drive it into the ground or whiff. The slider still appears to be catching quite a bit of the plate against righties, but there’s a subtle change in which part that seems to be helping, with his “danger miss” rate dropping from 14.8% to 9.1%. Righties’ hard-hit rate on the slider has dropped 10 points from 2024 to a mere 25% in 2026.

This improved command was on display in his 14-strikeout game against the Rangers last month. Half those strikeouts came on the slider. Here’s where he located the pitch that day: 


It isn’t obvious from the plot, but the dots in the strike zone were thrown in counts before two strikes. He pounded the zone with sliders to get ahead, especially against righties, and these look like generally good, strike-throwing locations. They’re down, or in, or out — anywhere but the heart of the plate:

In two-strike counts, all but one of his sliders finished down and out of the zone (the one that didn’t painted the black). Most of those had that perfect proximity to the strike zone where the batter can’t reach it but also can’t quite lay off. There were several pitches that look just like this, from shape to location to result:

This wasn’t even Detmers’ best start by the various location metrics. That’s just kind of how he’s throwing his slider these days. By Location+, it’s the second-best located slider in the majors this year. Detmers now ranks in the top 10 by Location+ across all pitches — not two years removed from ranking near the bottom.

Sometimes these sorts of analyses are surprising or complicated or require extraordinary nuance. Not here. We knew what was missing in 2024 when Detmers struggled. He addressed it when he moved to the bullpen last year. And he’s maintained those improvements into 2026. He’s not perfect. He’s not a true command artist. But he’s now on the attack, getting the most from an arsenal that’s excited scouts and analysts for years. Detmers is no longer a passive power pitcher limited to the bullpen. He’s taken control of his career, and found himself a fresh start.





Ryan Blake is a contributor for FanGraphs and Lookout Landing.

27 Comments
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drplantwrenchMember since 2024
2 months ago

reid is my favorite but most frustrating pitcher to watch. a part of his game early in his career seemed to be that he would miss the zone by just an inch or two and it would snowball into disaster because of his lack of mental fortitude. he is still getting pretty unlucky – 9th best xERA (2.92) but an actual ERA almost 2 runs higher (4.63), but seems to be affecting him less. I hope that the luck can catch up to him and the ERA will match before the Angels do something stupid

Scotty GMember since 2020
2 months ago
Reply to  drplantwrench

Reading that Reid Detmers is a top 10 pitcher in 2026 truly shocked me. I see that the peripherals look great, but he has 4 QS in 12 outings. He’s not owned in any league I’m in. And when I watch him pitch, he certainly doesn’t look like a top 50 pitcher.

HappyFunBallMember since 2019
2 months ago
Reply to  Scotty G

His peripherals do look great. His LOB% is not good, and there’s the bad sequencing that probably explains most of the delta between his ERA and FIP.

But since he’s also running a career-best HR/FB% I’d guess that those things are likely to both regress, bringing the FIP up and the ERA down. Something in the high 3’s maybe? Still really good compared to where he was, but not top-10.

drplantwrenchMember since 2024
2 months ago
Reply to  Scotty G

i disagree – i think he looks like a top 10 pitcher, but a facsimile of one. every year hes had a month or two where hes one of the best pitchers in baseball. his stuff in a vacuum is fantastic, hes got a great pitch mix, and he has all the skills to be that guy. hes just never ever put it together for a whole season, and has always let One Bad Inning ruin his counting stats.

thaaldermanMember since 2024
2 months ago

I’m a longtime Detmers fan and understand that his peripherals look great, but stating that a guy with a 4.63 ERA (90 ERA+) is a “top 10 starting pitcher” who “might have a case as the best lefty starter in baseball,” or that his year as a reliever with a 3.96 ERA (105 ERA+) was “executed…flawlessly” reads like a parody of analytics nerds. Detmers has definitely made promising strides over the past two seasons, but the sort of effusive praise you’re showering on him typically requires actual, traditional production.

Also, I think you’re overstating the rarity of relievers converting to starting roles, especially considering that Detmers made 70 starts from 2022-2024. Sure, maybe it didn’t happen very often until recently, but over the past few seasons we’ve seen Michael King, Clay Holmes, Seth Lugo, Kris Bubic, Reynaldo Lopez, Garrett Crochet, Garrett Whitlock, Griffin Jax, Jordan Wicks, Jose Soriano, Jeffrey Springs, Andre Pallante, Zack Littell, Carmen Mlodzinski, and others transition from the bullpen to the rotation with varying degrees of success. It might not alway work, but it seems like nearly every MLB team has toyed with the idea with to some degree during the past 3-4 years.

IAgreeGoGuardsMember since 2018
2 months ago
Reply to  Ryan Blake

I understand that FIP is generally more predictive than ERA, but Detmers has a career 4.75 ERA & 3.96 FIP in over 500 innings. That cannot be solely attributed to his teammates

I enjoyed the article overall. I certainly think Detmers has made strides and deserves better than a 4.63 ERA so far this year, but I also think you made some hyperbolic statements that are simply untrue

jdbolickMember since 2024
2 months ago
Reply to  Ryan Blake

Again, I don’t care about ERA. You might as well be citing me his eye color.

This comment is why thaalderman said that you sound like a parody of analytics nerds. You should care about ERA, as it’s what actually happened.

FIP is a useful shorthand that helps to remove some of the good or bad luck that pitchers experienced, but you need to understand that FIP is not “the truth” or “what should have happened.” FIP has major flaws, as it is not true that pitchers have no influence on balls in play, just that they have a lot less influence than the batter does.

Pitchers who have great sliders but poor fastballs consistently underperform their FIP because they are great in two strike situations but get hit harder than average when relying on their fastball to two strikes. This does not apply to Detmers, whose only truly bad pitch is his changeup.

Pitchers who make mistakes over the middle of the plate more frequently than the average also underperform their FIP because pitches over the middle of the plate yield much better offensive results than pitches near the edge of the plate. This does apply to Detmers. His BABIP has consistently been above what you would expect, and his ERA-FIP has been consistently been worse that what you expect because he makes more mistakes over the heart of the plate than the average pitcher.

Now, if you play fantasy baseball, fair. He’s probably going to keep allowing a lot of runs, because his team is really bad. But I’m not a fantasy baseball writer. I think about run prevention at a team level, and I think about pitchers by their performance on things in their control.

This is ridiculously pretentious. As someone who has been around this website for well over a decade, I assure you that you are not more knowledgeable than the majority of FanGraphs commenters. You are not writing on Bleacher Report. The people here understand Fielding Independent Pitching, so when they make constructive criticisms of your work, you should listen.

Now, if you wanted to quibble with top 10 label? Sure. Fine. It’s not a big deal to me. It’s simply a reference point, to make you say, “Huh, wow, Reid Detmers? He’s been that good? I want to know more.”

And what we’re telling you is that’s not how it comes across. In fact, it achieves the opposite. It makes the reader think that you just recently discovered FIP and haven’t yet learned the areas where it can be misleading, because we wouldn’t expect for anyone who already knows that information to confidently assert that Reid Detmers “is a top 10 starting pitcher to this point in 2026.”

No, he hasn’t been. If you want a more insightful article than this one, do some analysis on why he has consistently performed worse than his FIP would suggest.

Turks TeethMember since 2018
2 months ago
Reply to  IAgreeGoGuards

“That cannot be solely attributed to his teammates”

Well, Detmers has only been pitching with any frequency in the MLB since ’22, and the Angels team defense has been in the bottom 20% of baseball every year during that span – never better than -35 Def in any season. It’s gotten worse year over year – moving from #24 in the MLB in ’22 to #30 the past two seasons. As the team defense has gotten worse, so has the delta between Detmers’ ERA and FIP also generally increased.

Over the totality of ’22-26, the Angels had, cumulatively, the worst team defense in the MLB – a jawdropping 244.6 negative runs.

So citing the career discrepancy between Reid’s ERA and FIP doesn’t really defeat Ryan’s point – it corroborates it further. It’d be nice to see Detmers pitch for a defensively sound team like KCR or Cleveland for a couple years to see if this ERA/FIP delta fades away with more gloves on balls and better batted ball fortune.

jdbolickMember since 2024
2 months ago

Detmers, if you weren’t aware, is a top 10 starting pitcher to this point in 2026.

No, he isn’t. Detmers has consistently underperformed his FIP throughout his career, and is just 59th out of 71 qualified starting pitchers in RA9-WAR.

raregokusMember since 2022
2 months ago
Reply to  jdbolick

…playing with a single franchise, and one that has never made infield defense a priority. This particular drum gets banged a lot around here, I would argue a little too often. FIP-WAR is bad for hindsight analysis but that doesn’t make RA9-WAR perfect in compensation — you still have to look under the hood to know what’s actually going wrong.

jdbolickMember since 2024
2 months ago
Reply to  raregokus

Jose Soriano, who has also only pitched for the Angels and induces far more ground balls than Detmers, has posted a better ERA than FIP in three of his four seasons. This has more to do with the types of mistakes that Detmers makes which end up getting punished.

Dan GreerMember since 2018
2 months ago

I know you have said you don’t care about ERA, and I’m not here to argue that – but for anyone wondering, Detmers consistently has the Aaron Nola problem of getting clobbered with men on base / in scoring position.

I happen to think Detmers has top-30 potential but is unlikely to realize it as part of the Angels, even though the process stats are excellent.

I would check his locations, pitch mix, and stuff numbers out of the stretch versus bases empty to see if there is any significant difference before attributing most of this to defense. Maybe you already have.

jdbolickMember since 2024
2 months ago
Reply to  Ryan Blake

Yeah, I’m OK pointing the finger at the Angels here.

Because you don’t want to admit that you were wrong, not because the Angels are a valid explanation. As I noted above, Jose Soriano has been on the same team with the same defense and induces far more ground balls, yet has not had the same FIP-ERA discrepancy as Detmers.

That’s because Jose Soriano has the second lowest Heart Zone% in 2026 at 20.8%, which means that when he misses, he’s not missing over the middle of the plate. Detmers has actually improved a lot in H-Zone% this season, as his 25.2% is a little better than the league average, but historically it has been a problem as his 27.9% career mark attests.

When he makes a mistake, he misses over the plate, and those misses have a tendency to get punished more severely than most pitchers.

jdbolickMember since 2024
2 months ago
Reply to  Ryan Blake

The defense is, literally, hurting Detmers more than Soriano.

Because of the contact that Detmers yields. They are literally the same defenders. They don’t magically perform worse for Detmers and better Soriano because they like Soriano and dislike Detmers.

NATS FanMember since 2018
2 months ago
Reply to  jdbolick

No but the way they pitch can make more or less vulnerable to the defense.

NATS FanMember since 2018
2 months ago
Reply to  NATS Fan

For example Detmers has only a 35% ground ball rate. Soriano is over 50% ground balls. So Detmers has way more balls relying on Joe Adell than Soriano. the guy that replicated Jose Canseco’s bouncing a ball off his head. That Adell!

jdbolickMember since 2024
2 months ago
Reply to  NATS Fan

The Angels’ infield defense is worse than their outfield defense. The reason that defenders have worse metrics behind Detmers than they do behind Soriano is that OAA doesn’t include contact quality.

According to MLB.com, OAA for infielders measures “How far the fielder has to go to reach the ball,” “How much time he has to get there,” and “How far he then is from the base the runner is heading to.” It’s basically just measuring range and nothing else.

So a 110mph one hop rocket right at Zach Neto that handcuffs him and bounces away would have a larger negative OAA score than an 85 mph routine ground ball ten feet to his right that he fumbled. That’s why OAA is an inferior measurement for infielders than DRS.

cm26Member since 2025
2 months ago
Reply to  jdbolick

But if Detmers is getting punished more severely for his worst pitches then why wouldn’t it show up in his xERA?

Last edited 2 months ago by cm26
jdbolickMember since 2024
2 months ago
Reply to  cm26

Because xERA looks at the quality of all contact. Detmers has a mix of pretty good results and some very bad results which make the average not look that bad.

NATS FanMember since 2018
2 months ago

I think there is a lot to the argument that the Angels defense is hurting Detmers quite a lot. He might be one of the worst affected pitchers by his defense in the game. Has been for several seasons. FIP explains quite a bit more than you guys care to admit. Bad defense behind young pitchers often matters a bunch as they start trying too hard to strike everyone out and miss over the middle to often.