San Francisco Has the Best Infield in Baseball

The San Francisco Giants began the season with what appeared to be an adequate, but perhaps underwhelming, infield. Buster Posey was the star at catcher and Brandon Belt seemed like a solid young first baseman. Brandon Crawford looked to be a decent glove-first shortstop while not much was expected from Joe Panik at second — and even less than that was expected from Casey McGehee at third base. McGehee could not quite catch fire the way he had done in Miami the previous season and has since been replaced by the previously unknown Matt Duffy. Nearly halfway through the first half of the Major League Baseball season, however, the Giants’ quintet of infielders has been the best in all of baseball.

Buster Posey has been right in line with his very high expectations, and Brandon Belt has been solidly aboveaverage as expected, but Panik, Crawford, and Duffy have vastly exceeded expectations in 2015. The group as a whole was projected for 12.4 wins before the season according to the FanGraphs Depth Chart projections. Those players have already accumulated nearly 13 wins and have more than half of the season to go. That number is the best in MLB this season.

The numbers above were taken using the starters making the biggest contribution at every infield position. The Chicago White Sox are in the negative and the Phillies would be too if not for Maikel Franco’s recent run of hitting. The Reds might be a surprise that high given expectations in Cincinnati, but Todd Frazier and Joey Votto are two of the game’s best players. That the Toronto Blue Jays, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers, and Colorado Rockies all rank highly should not come as a big surprise given the high caliber of players on their respective teams. The Nevertheless, the Giants have a higher WAR than all of those teams by a full two wins.

The club has benefited from multiple breakouts this season, although it’s too early to say if those results are sustainable. Brandon Crawford’s development has come as a surprise to everyone except for the Giants. Joe Panik hit well last season in limited time without any power, but has added that element this year. It is not clear that anyone knows quite what to make of Matt Duffy at this point. The new Giants third baseman is hitting .303/.349/.491 for a wRC+ of 138 in 237 plate appearances. When a new player comes out of seemingly nowhere (he was No. 11 on Kiley McDaniel’s list of top Giants prospects), there is a desire to find someone comparable to him to provide a base of expectations.

Like Matt Carpenter, Duffy was a skinny late-round, low-bonus pick with a good eye who can play second and third. Duffy’s minor-league production outperformed expectations much like Carpenter’s did — he’s continued to exceed those expectations at the major-league level. But he might not be like Matt Carpenter. He might be more like Ben Zobrist because he can also play shortstop, and he would probably be fine in the outfield, too. We do not yet know who Matt Duffy is, other than that he could not beat out Casey McGehee to start the season and has been one of the best hitters in the league since he got the starting job. The walk rate is not as high as it was in the minors and the power is unexpected, so it will likely be quite some time before Duffy believers reach a critical mass.

Early season success does not always translate into a continued run, and while the Giants appear to have had the best infield so far, their expected talent level over the course of the season is expected to come down some. Below is a graph showing the rest-of-season projections from the FanGraphs Depth Charts for every infield in MLB using the same selection process as above.

For the rest of the season, the Blue Jays hold the top spot due to the expected success of Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, and Edwin Encarnacion. The Giants find themselves slightly behind the Cubs and Cardinals and even with the Orioles and Dodgers. Even so, the Giants would have considered themselves lucky to field an infield with the same projected level of success as the teams listed above. The rest-of-season projections do suggest quite a drop for the Giants. Here is the expected change for every team comparing what they have done to this point and the expected production going forward.

The Phillies and White Sox have no place to go but up, while the Giants show the biggest drop. The Nationals have had disappointing play from Ian Desmond and very little playing time from Anthony Rendon so they could be better than they have shown so far this season. The projections also see the Marlins as over-performers in the infield as Dee Gordon is expected to come down from his All-Star first half. While the Giants are not expected to perform at the same high level the rest of the way, the updated projections from adding the numbers in the first two graphs above still have the Giants on top of baseball.

The Giants will have nearly doubled up on their expectations if they meet their projections going forward. Third base looked very bleak after Pablo Sandoval left and the Giants brought in Casey McGehee. Matt Duffy has eased some concerns as Brandon Crawford has emerged as something greater at shortstop. Buster Posey continues to play like an MVP and Brandon Belt continues to hit. The Giants do not need to continue playing like they have to produce one of the best infields in the majors. After the great first half, the projections have moved from average to near the league leaders. Whether the Giants can make it back to the playoffs to defend their World Series title is still up in the air, but he infield has thus far paced the offense. The increased production from the infield has the Giants in position to make the playoffs in back-to-back years for the first time in more than a decade.