Seattle Mariners Might Be Stuck, Even in Seller’s Market

The Seattle Mariners are in a tough spot. They’re not a bad team, sitting a game over .500. By both Pythagorean wins and BaseRuns, they profile a few games better than that. Over the course of the rest of the season, they’re expected to continue to be a bit above average and our projections have them finishing at 83-79 for the year. That’s not a bad season — and if the team made a few big moves and caught a few breaks, they might even sneak their way into the playoffs where anything can happen. Unfortunately for the Mariners, that scenario isn’t very likely.

The division-leading Texas Rangers hardly seem invincible, but they’ve accrued a decent lead on the Mariners, while other divisional-rival Houston possesses the advantage both of more wins than the Mariners and more talent. This makes the M’s current chances of winning the division rather low. (For an interactive version of the chart, click here.)

They’re not out of it, as you can see, but they do face difficult odds. And keep in mind: these odds are reflective of the talent each club currently possesses on hand. Both the Rangers and Astros are expected to be buyers, and further moves by those teams figure to push their odds higher and the Mariners’ lower unless they counter with a move of their own.

As for the wild card, the task is equally as daunting. The chart below shows the wild-card probabilities only and do not include a team’s chances at the division. (Interactive version here.)

If you’re willing to hand the American League Central to Cleveland, that leaves four additional available playoff spots. Seattle is seventh on that list, with less than a 10% shot. That the top three teams all play in the AL East — and also expected to be buyers before the deadlines — makes Seattle’s predicament all the more obvious. The team isn’t likely to win, so the team should sell. How they should sell, though, is a bit more difficult to decipher.

The team got things rolling a bit by trading lefty reliever Mike Montgomery for Dan Vogelbach. Our FanGraphs Depth Charts don’t really differentiate on offensive value between Adam Lind and Vogelbach, and as Lind is a pending free agent, the Mariners just found a cheaper version of Lind who also happens to be 10 years younger. So Lind is expendable, and while he has 15 homers and profiles as an above-average hitter moving forward, he’s hitting just .231/.264/.449 with an 87 wRC+. Seattle might be able to obtain some salary relief by trading him, but they don’t really need that and they aren’t likely to get much in the way of prospects.

As for other options, the Mariners have Dae-Ho Lee, who has some power but is also a defensively limited right-handed first baseman and a candidate to return to the club next season. Robinson Cano is getting paid $161 million after this year and has full no-trade protection. Kyle Seager is producing at a high level, still just 28, and is signed to a reasonable long-term extension through 2022. Leonys Martin is a defense-first center fielder whose on-field value likely outpaces his trade value. Nelson Cruz’s trade value is limited to AL teams and most contenders already have a designated hitter — even if the team wanted to move him, which they likely don’t.

On the position-player side, the Mariners appear to have enough players to build a core for next year that could contend with some better luck and a few additions. As far as role players go, Chris Iannetta is serviceable behind the plate and has an option for next year under $5 million. Seth Smith has produced and has a reasonable option. Ketel Marte’s inability to draw a walk has hurt him this year, but the team likely hopes the 22-year-old shortstop can rebound a bit next year to provide a bit more value. The Mariners are in a tough spot with Nori Aoki, as the team might want to massage his playing time the rest of the way to prevent his option from triggering at 480 plate appearances.

If they can’t get much present-day value in return on the hitting side, that might mark trouble, as the current market is sorely lacking in pitchers. On the other hand, the Mariners could also take advantage of that lack of depth. Seattle features roughly the same problems in starting pitching that they run into on the position-player side. Wade Miley has been a disappointment, but he has a reasonable contract for next season. Felix Hernandez still has three more years on his deal, and will likely play an important role in future contention. Taijuan Walker, James Paxton, and Nate Karns are young and cost-controlled for multiple years. That’s five potential starters for a contending team next season, which leaves one more starter: Hisashi Iwakuma.

In many ways, Iwakuma is an ideal candidate for trade. He was signed to a one-year deal with reasonable options in future years. He’s experienced and has pitched at a roughly average level this season. However, that option for next year is about to turn into a guarantee of $14 million in another handful of starts and Iwakuma has a no-trade clause. After the offseason deal with the Dodgers failed due to medical concerns, Iwakuma took a lesser deal to go back to the Mariners, carefully choosing his destination and contract terms. When he is so close to another guaranteed year in Seattle, it makes little sense on his end to waive the no-trade clause.

From Seattle’s perspective, a reliable starter on a one-year deal next year is nothing to abandon. Heading into next season with a surplus of starters makes it seem like a good time to trade away one of them, but it seldom works out that way in practice, and having six decent starters for next year should be a benefit to the team. So what is Seattle to do?

Anybody in the bullpen outside of Edwin Diaz should be readily available. Steve Cishek has another year on his contract, but if a team wants to give up real talent for him, they should jump at the chance. Joaquin Benoit has pitched a little better of late, notwithstanding his last performance, and he needs to go. Vidal Nuno should be available at the right price. Add those guys to Adam Lind and the Mariners can get themselves a little minor-league depth as they head into the offseason trying to contend.

There is one other option, though — one the Texas Rangers took last season. The Rangers were in a similar spot competitively to the Mariners and the team chose to trade for Cole Hamels. It’s a move that increased their narrow chances of contending last season, but greatly increased their chances this season. While expecting any move to help a ton this year is far-fetched, if there is a move to be made — perhaps for a corner outfielder signed beyond this season — it’s something the Mariners should consider.

The market for outfielders at last year’s trade deadline was one that generally favored the buyers and the same was true in the offseason. Carlos Gonzalez is out there. Ryan Braun should be available. Yasiel Puig can be had. These aren’t moves the Mariners have to make, but the team doesn’t fit the mold of traditional seller, and being a cautious buyer for next season makes some sense as Seattle positions themselves to contend in 2017.