Sunday Notes: A Hall of Fame Ballot (With Noteworthy Changes) Explained
This year I had the honor of filling out a Hall of Fame ballot for the fifth time, and as was the case with the previous four, I‘m endeavoring to explain my reasoning. This is something I feel every voter should do. Casting a ballot is a privilege that should demand not only due diligence, but also transparency.
Let’s cut to the chase.
Noteworthy among my 2025 selections is that the holdovers differ somewhat from previous ballots. My most recent Sunday Notes column — I missed last week’s due to a health issue — suggested a few of those changes. As I explained on December 22, my previous ballots all included Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez, but I was seriously considering dropping them and instead voting for two of Félix Hernández, Dustin Pedroia, and David Wright. I did just that. Following no small amount of deliberation, I adopted my colleague Jay Jaffe’s stance that Manny’s and A-Rod’s being suspended after PED rules were put into place is a meaningful distinction. With neither erstwhile slugger having a realistic chance of ever being elected by the BBWAA — another factor in my decision — a strategic change seemed in order.
More on that in a moment.
I’d actually made a strategic change in my voting on last year’s ballot, which from a big-Hall perspective — and I am an avowed big-Hall voter — was stacked with worthy candidates (the 10-player limit remains an obstacle). Knowing that he would safely remain on the ballot, I temporarily dropped Andruw Jones with plans to resume voting for him this year.
The players who got checkmarks on my 2024 ballot, and did so again, are Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltrán, Chase Utley, and Billy Wagner (I have shared my reasoning for each in previous explanatory columns). Having re-added Jones, and with two first-year-eligibles being relatively easy choices — CC Sabathia and Ichiro Suzuki — I was thus left with three available slots. One of them went to a pitcher I hadn’t found room for previously.
My colleague Jay voted for Andy Pettitte last year, only to drop him on this year’s ballot with the caveat that he will continue to consider him in the future. I decided that he merited my current-ballot vote. Statistically similar to Sabathia in several categories (WAR, wins, and ERA+ among them), Pettitte, as Jay has explained, also possesses an impressive post-season résumé. Included within it are Pettitte’s having started three World Series-clinching games in which he allowed just three earned runs over 20 innings. While more a workmanlike performer than a bona fide star throughout his career, the southpaw’s numbers — meaningfully augmented by the Octobers — make him worthy.
Which brings us to the three players I most strongly considered for my two remaining votes (unlike Jay, I only briefly considered Russell Martin and Brian McCann. With all due respect to Wright, I opted to go with Hernández and Pedroia.
Hernández was the clearer of those choices. From 2009-2015, King Félix led American League starters in WAR, ERA, and innings pitched, while he was second in wins, and third in xFIP. Moreover, he made five All-Star teams, won a Cy Young Award, twice finished second for that honor, and threw a perfect game. While he falls short in counting stats — in many ways his résumé is the polar opposite of Pettitte’s — he was truly elite in his peak. Addie Joss isn’t a wholly unreasonable comp.
As for Pedroia, I’ll circle back to what I wrote in the aforementioned December column. Prior to suffering his career-altering injury, the Red Sox mighty-mite had a nine-year stretch where he was worth 45 WAR, made four All-Star teams, won four Gold Gloves, earned both Rookie of the Year and MVP honors, and was an integral part of two World Series-winning teams. With the possible of exception of Bobby Doerr, he is the best second baseman in franchise history. Was Pedroia’s career more Cooperstown-worthy than Wright’s, or even Hernández’s or Pettitte’s? That’s strictly a matter of opinion. What constitutes a Hall of Famer is, and always will be, subjective.
To recap, here are my 10 selections:
Bobby Abreu, Carlos Beltrán, Felix Hernandez, Andruw Jones, Dustin Pedroia, Andy Pettitte, CC Sabathia, Ichiro Suzuki, Chase Utley, Billy Wagner.
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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS
Joe Carter went 19 for 74 against Jimmy Key.
Gary Carter went 2 for 28 against Dennis Martinez.
Ty Cobb went 3 for 5 against Paul Carter.
Peanuts Lowrey went 13 for 26 against Schoolboy Rowe.
Kyle Farmer is 8 for 15 against Mitch Keller.
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The Boston Red Sox will head into the 2025 season with a deep starting rotation. Garrett Crochet and Walker Buehler join holdovers Tanner Houck, Brayan Bello, and Kutter Crawford, while Lucas Giolito is set to return from Tommy John surgery. Richard Fitts and Quinn Priester provide further depth, as do swingmen Cooper Criswell and Josh Winckowski. Moreover, Patrick Sandoval is expected to enter the mix once he returns from TJ of his own in the latter half of the campaign.
Asked recently if the club is considering a six-man rotation, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow told reporters that he has “batted around“ the idea with manager Alex Cora and pitching coach Andrew Bailey, adding that they need to see how things unfold in spring training and make a decision from there.
I asked the pitcher-turned-executive where he stands philosophically, given that arm health is a primary consideration when opting for a six-man rotation.
“Philosophically, I’m supportive of anything we can do to keep our best players on the field, performing at a really high level,” Breslow responded. “This could potentially be one of them. It necessitates particular construction of the bullpen, as well. We need to have relievers who are capable of throwing multiple innings. I think we have that when you think about guys like Winchowski, guys like (Garrett) Whitlock, who has done this in the past. Criswell can bounce back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen. I think we’re well-positioned to implement a six-man rotation if that’s the way we want to go.”
In other words, stay tuned.
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When I put together a piece titled Tigers and Twins Winter Meetings Notes a few weeks ago, one of the subjects covered was platooning. Sharing their thoughts were the teams’ respective presidents of baseball operations, Detroit’s Scott Harris and Minnesota Derek Falvey.
Mariners manager Dan Wilson had an interesting take of his own during the Dallas get-together.
“The more you can do to stabilize a lineup, the better,” said Wilson, who took over the helm in Seattle after Scott Servais was given his walking papers in late August. “But I think there are opportunities when platoons can be sort of a stable thing, and it kind of worked that way for us towards the end of the year. If there are platoons again as we go forward, I hope to make them as stable as possible.”
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A quiz:
Who has the most hits in Philadelphia Phillies franchise history?
The answer can be found below.
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NEWS NOTES
The Colorado Rockies are hiring Scott Oberg as a minor league pitching coordinator (per The Denver Post). The 34-year-old University of Connecticut product pitched for the Rockies from 2015-2019 and has spent the past two seasons as a part-time pitching consultant with the club.
Gary Sutherland, an infielder for seven teams across a big-league career that spanned the 1966-1978 seasons, died on December 16 at age 80 (per Baseball Player Passings). Primarily a second baseman, “Sudsy” stroked a personal-best 157 hits with the Detroit Tigers in 1974. He was known more for his glove than his bat.
Charlie Maxwell, an outfielder whose career spanned the 1950-1964 seasons, died on December 27 at age 97. A left-handed hitter who grew up in Paw Paw, Michigan, Maxwell was at his best from 1956-1960 when he mashed 120 home runs while playing for the Detroit Tigers. He had five extra-inning homers in 1960.
Lenny Randle, an infielder/outfielder who logged 1.016 hits while playing for five teams from 1971-1982, died on December 29 at age 75. The Arizona State University product is perhaps best known for punching manager Frank Lucchesi while with the Texas Rangers, and for trying to blow a slow-rolling ground ball foul while with the Seattle Mariners. In 1983, Randle later became the first MLB player to play professionally in Italy,
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The answer to the quiz is Jimmy Rollins, with 2,306. Mike Schmidt and Richie Ashburn rank second and third, with 2,217 and 2,214 hits respectively.
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Which of Albert Pujols and Frank Thomas was the better hitter? I asked that question in a Twitter poll a few days ago, and the results strongly favored the former. Pujols, who will become Hall-eligible in 2028, garnered 66.7% of the votes cast. Thomas, who in 2014 was elected in his first year on the ballot, received just 33.3%.
Pujols logged 13,041 plate appearances, while Thomas had just 10,075, so the erstwhile St. Louis Cardinal and Los Angeles Angel predictably has the edge in counting stats. Most notable are his advantage in hits (3,384 to 2,468), home runs (703 to 521), and RBIs (2,218 to 1,704). But was he actually the better hitter?
Over their careers, Pujols slashed .296/.374/.544 with a 141 wRC+ and a .385 wOBA. Thomas slashed .301/.419/.555 with a 154 wRC+ and a .416 wOBA.
Over their best 10-year stretches, Pujols slashed .331/.426/.624 with a 169 wRC+ and a .435 wOBA. Thomas slashed .320/.439/.581 with a 165 wRC+ and a .434 wOBA.
Pjujols was obviously a great hitter. That said, the Big Hurt was objectively better.
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FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Nick Nelson has signed with NPB’s Hanshin Tigers. The 29-year-old right-hander has appeared in 74 MLB games over the past five seasons, 47 of them with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2022.
The Nippon-Ham Fighters have re-signed Drew VerHagen to a one year contract. The 34-year-old former Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals right-hander pitched for the NPB club in 2020-2021, and again this past season.
Makoto Kyomoto has a 2.06 ERA to go with 43 strikeouts and just four walks allowed over 35 innings with the Australian Baseball League’s Adelaide Giants. The 20-year-old right-hander pitched in four games for NPB’s Yomiuri Giants this year, and in 30 more for their top farm club.
Robbie Perkins is slashing .347/.430/.571 with six home runs in 114 plate appearances for the ABL’s Canberra Cavalry. The 30-year-old, Canberra-born catcher was in the Colorado Rockies system from 2013-2018.
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A random obscure former player snapshot:
MLB history includes 30 players born in England, 13 of whom played exclusively prior to 1900. Of the seventeen to perform in the modern era, Dave Brain had one of the more-curious careers. A native of Hereford who saw action for six teams over a seven-year span, he had his best season in 1907, bashing a National League-leading 10 home runs while logging a 127 wRC+ with the Boston Doves. Just 28 years old at the time, he would never again go deep in a big-league uniform. Moreover, he would record just nine more hits. Brain reportedly requested an $800 raise in salary after his stellar campaign, but was instead sent a contract at a reduced salary. He held out, then was sold by the Doves to the Cincinnati Reds the following spring. Twenty-seven games and a .125 batting average later, Brain’s career was over.
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When Nick Yorke was featured here at FanGraphs back in November, the 22-year-old Pirates infielder explained how going back to his old approach helped propel him to Pittsburgh. Left on the cutting room floor from my end-of-the-season conversation with him was Yorke’s telling of the 412-foot blast he hit off of Cincinnati’s Fernando Cruz on September 22 for his first big-league home run.
“It was the first pitch of the [fifth] inning,” recalled Yorke, who’d made his MLB debut six days earlier. “He has a really good secondary — his splitter is one of the best in the league — so my plan going into the at-bat was to try to hit a heater early, and then if I miss it, just battle. He gave me a heater, I got a barrel to it, and it went. I knew that it was gone right away.”
His experience circling the bases was memorable.
“I had a little hesitation,” said Yorke. “We were [in Cincinnati] and our bullpen there was down the right field line. I looked toward the left field line to point at our guys in the bullpen, so I kind of had a little hiccup. But yeah, it was a super cool moment. There was [third base coach Mike] Rabelo’s big old smile when I’m coming toward third, and then there was everyone in the dugout. They were all pretty happy for me. The whole thing was a cool experience.”
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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE
Mark Simon presented us with seven Sports Info Solutions 2024 year-end awards, including Contact Minimizer and Hall of Framer.
Baseball historian Adam Darowski wrote about how the Hall of Fame is still failing with Negro Leagues inductees.
The Athletic’s Eno Sarris wrote about how a healthy and skilled Corbin Burnes is a major coup for the Arizona Diamondbacks (subscription required).
Where did the bullpen phone come from? Michael Clair delved into that question at MLB.com.
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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS
José Ramírez recorded 180 total bases with two strikes this past season, the most by any player over the past twenty seasons (per MLBNetwork).
Over the past five seasons, Cody Bellinger has played in 555 games, logged 499 hits, scored 309 runs, driven in 309 runs, and logged a 100 wRC+.
Brian McCann played in 1,755 games, had 1,590 hits, a .262 BA, and a 110 wRC+. Bill Freehan played in 1,774 games, had 1,591 hits, a .262 BA, and a 113 wRC+.
Chase Utley had 1,885 hits, 411 doubles, 58 triples, and 259 home runs.
Brian Giles had 1,897 hits, 411 doubles, 55 triples, and 287 home runs.
Dustin Pedroia had a .363/.411/.536 slash line in 325 career plate appearances versus the Minnesota Twins. He had a .243/.325/.345 slash line in 321 career plate appearances versus the Seattle Mariners.
On today’s date in 1999, the BBWAA elected George Brett, Nolan Ryan, and Robin Yount, all of whom were on the ballot for the first time, to the Hall of Fame. Carlton Fisk, who was also first-time eligible, fell short but was elected the following year.
Players born on today’s date include Ted Petoskey, an outfielder whose big-league career comprised 10 games — he went 2-for-12 at the plate — for the Cincinnati Reds between the 1934-1935 campaigns. A three-sport star at the University of Michigan, Petoskey would later coach baseball and basketball at the University of South Carolina, and scout for the New York Yankees.
Also born on today’s date was Zaza Harvey, a pitcher/outfielder who played for the Chicago Orphans, Chicago White Sox, and Cleveland Blues across the 1900-1902 seasons. Harvey batted .332 over 283 plate appearances, logged a 3.47 ERA over 96 innings, then saw his career come to an end at age 23 due to stomach issues.
The Only Nolan (his given name was Edward Sylvester) was a two-way player in five Major League seasons between 1878-1885. A native of Trenton, Ontario, Nolan also played in the Eastern League, going 19-5 with a 1.42 ERA for the Wilmington Quicksteps in 1884.
David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from December 2006-May 2011 before being claimed off waivers by FanGraphs. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.
I appreciate you explaining your votes, but I didn’t understand voting for Pettitte but not Arod or Manny, when Pettitte admitted to using HGH
Yes, it was before testing, but you didn’t need a test to learn about it when he admitted it.
I don’t think the distinction rests on a better feeling of knowing whether a player used PED. Prior to testing, use of PED was tacitly encouraged. Players were put into a real dilemma. “Everyone is doing it” becomes a more legitimate excuse when your career is on the line.
Upvoted not because I agree with the logic (I don’t), but because I think this is probably the thought process that Jay and David are using.
I should add, this issue is mostly nonexistent at this point now that Bonds and Clemens and McGwire and Sosa are off the ballot. Pettite is not getting in and if players without a formal failed test fall short then Manny and A-Rod have no shot either.
I wouldn’t be shocked if Pettitte gets in eventually. I actually think he’s a bubble candidate even without the steroids, but lots of voters are just going to look at rings.
I would presume if you vote for a “bubble guy without the steroids” like Pettitte you would obviously have to support the “no-doubters without the steroids” like Bonds, Clemens, and A-rod
Does anyone understand the remark about The Big Hurt being objectively better? The conclusion seems to clash with the presented evidence.
Jon, I was about to post the exact same thing!! I mean, he gives Pujols the nod on counting stats, Thomas the nod on rate stats, and then seems to use their best 10-year stretches as the tie-breaker. And Pujols seemingly wins that. So how does Davd conclude from the presented evidence that Thomas was better.
Also, why does he use the word “objectively” here? Earlier in his article, he mentioned that deciding which HOF candidate is better is purely subjective. So his use of the word “objectively” here strikes me as possibly a type-o?
Anyway, LOVE the article, David! I hope you will respond to Jon’s comment.
IMO, Thomas’s 154 to 141 edge in career wRC+ trumps Pujols’s 169 to 165 edge in 10-year-best wRC+. That said, “objectively” was probably not the ideal word for me to use. While I do feel that Thomas was the better hitter, it isn’t unreasonable to think otherwise.
I suspect a lot of these polls suffer from recency bias and while there isn’t a huge difference in the time frames they played in, Pujols was great a little more recently than Thomas was.
Pujols also had more national attention. He clearly stood out as the best hitter of his era, while Thomas contended with plenty of other guys for that title, like Griffey, Bonds.
this discounts a lot of great players from the 2000s era tbf. That Albert was above them, is a testament to him, not a detriment.
Also amazing that Bonds was the greatest hitter of multiple decades.
Don’t get me wrong. Not saying it is a detriment. He led his league in bWAR six straight years. Insane. That’s how I remember Pujols: standing out, untouchable.
Frank, even for a 2x MVP, he sometimes got overshadowed in his best years. Also back in the 90s sportswriters held it against him that he walked like 120 times a year. Dumb. But it’s true that he never led in WAR, even if he came close (and led in many offensive categories).
Those career rate stats are in part dragged down by Pujols continuing to be rostered and get regular playing time despite being a below average hitter for five years (!) at the end of his career, because he was being paid a ton of money.
Both were great though, and just as hitters it’s definitely close.
Another great article to read David and hope you are feeling better, but I just don’t see Thomas as a better hitter than Pujols.
The Thomas career edge is from Pujols playing out the string with a bad body, his 2001-2015 time frame, with 9902 PA vs Thomas career 10074 PA, is at
156 wRC+ for Pujols vs
154 for Thomas career.
Pujols was about even during his prime in “clutch” value while Thomas was ~7 negative wins.
Pujols was a better road relative hitter with 101/99 tOPS+ splits, Thomas had a bit more home cooking with a 109/91 tOPS+ total.
Thomas didn’t have the same opportunities to shine, but he was only an 870 OPS guy in 68 PA, while Pujols was a 995 in 360 PA with an impressive 2.64 playoff WPA, a 2x WS champ with an NLCS MVP.
The infusion of expansion in 1993 and 1998 lifted to relative wRC+ of great players compared to Pujols era, whether steroid use offset that advantage, ?
The Big Frank was amazing, but Pujols was more historic to these eyes.
The extra 30% of plate appearances Pujols had across his career has to contribute to that 13 point difference though
If you use 5 year or 7 year peak Thomas’s edge gets a little clearer. But you have to drill down to get there.
The big difference between their Hall of Fame cases—both of which are obviously first ballot, no doubters—is that Frank Thomas struggled as a fielder while Pujols had several years where he was good defensively. And even with the caveat “hitter” it’s still easy to overlook that and just say “that’s easy, Pujols might be the best first baseman ever” and just click that button. For that reason I don’t think we can read too much into the results.
(Side note, I think Pujols has a measurable chance of a unanimous selection. Who would dare vote against him?)
Don’t know if this link will work or if it proves anything, but if you compare their wOBA’s by age, they are pretty similar. I also put Miggy in since he was a very similar hitter.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/albert-pujols/1177/comparison?page=8&players=255%2C1744&position=1B
Thomas had the fewest “bad” seasons (only his 20 game 2001 is below league average) and the “best” late career after 35. Pujols was probably the most consistent.
Miggy and Thomas is a better comp, right-o.
Playoffs, WS, and defense makes Pujols “objectively” better than Thomas. Thomas’ career fell off faster as well, so those 3,000 ABs matter somewhat. If Thomas’s Sox win the strike WS, maybe Thomas is seen as closer to Pujols?
Great charts! Using those to analyze Pujols vs Thomas as hitters, they are roughly equal through age 31, with Pujols getting a year earlier head start (at age 21). Thomas has by far the best season but that was in 1994 (strike-shortened). From age 32 onward Thomas is the better hitter, and it’s not really close – two years where they are comparable and the rest Thomas has a consistent significant edge.
I was a HUGE Big Hurt fan and never would have guessed his peak was comparable to Pujols. Looking at these charts I am comfortable calling him the objectively better hitter.
I had a follow up post that at present is tagged as spam, where if you compare “who had the best wOBA at age X” Thomas wins handily. Something like when head to head Thomas vs Pujols it was 14-5 Thomas. When looking at all three players it was Thomas 14 seasons, Pujols 3, Cabrera 2.
(I’ve got to get over my impulse to edit minor formatting mistakes. That triggers the spam flag and it always surprises me.)
Pujol’s career rate numbers are pulled down by those last 3,000 plate appearances which cover the period between 2016 to 2022. 2016 was his last season posting a wrc+ line above 100 (110) until his last hurrah with STL in 2022. Without that last season he would have had a negative war over that time period. Frank Thomas had a better back half of his career. Pujols was scarier. Pujol’s finished his career at age 42 allegedly and Tomas at 40.
Looking at OPS+…
First 11 seasons (i.e. until Pujols went to the Angels, and Thomas’ last great season in 2000):
Pujols (age 21-31):
* 170 OPS+
* Led majors three times and NL a fourth
* Best seasons were 192 and 189, worst two were 148 and 151 (10th and 2nd seasons respectively)
* Averaged 676 PA per season
Thomas (age 22-32):
* 169 OPS+
* Led majors once and AL two other times (Bagwell edged him in the NL by one point of OPS+ in their monster 1994 seasons)
* Best seasons were 212 and 185 (twice), worst two were the 9th and 10th, with 125 and 126. Prior to those he was never lower than 174.
* Averaged 618 PA per season; if you grant him 670 PA in 1994 he would have averaged 633 PA during this span.
From the time above through their age 40 seasons (after which Thomas retired) Thomas had a 130 OPS+ vs Pujols’ 104. In these seasons Pujols logged 4291 PA vs Thomas’ 3276. Pujols was definitely healthier during these ages, but when available Thomas was definitely the better hitter.
In summary a wash at the plate during their prime, with Thomas being a 25% better hitter (but 25% less available) in their significantly-lengthy decline phases.
In general, I’m not a big fan of using the ‘should have’ stats like xFIP when building cases for achievement based honors or awards. To me, they are of considerable value when projecting forward (I.e. how should club X spend its money), but I prefer to assess what actually happened on the field when looking backwards. Particularly when looking backwards at an entire career. I admit that they can be useful when assessing/contextualizing someone who played in an extreme environment (coors, polo grounds) which significantly helped or hurt their stats…but in general, I’d much rather look at things like WRC+ or ERA-
xFIP is probably most useful when looking at minor league stats for this reason. Huge, huge differences across stadiums.
Thought Rollins and Schmidt were too obvious. Went with Ashburn. Whoops! The extra 1500+ PAs made a real difference.
Me too – never thought of Jimmy Rollins as a hitting machine!
he wasn’t but he was a plate appearance machine with a good batting average. Many seasons with more than 700 plate appearances get you a bunch of hits.
I went with Schmidt.Thought he was “non-obvious” due to the low BA.
I guessed Rollins over Schmidt because I remembered some article on ESPN forever ago about Jimmy having low OBP/not walking enough for a leadoff hitter and knew Schmidt walked a lot.
I went with Schmidt. His BA is better than Rollins. I consider him and average hitter for AVG. He played forever, all in Philadelphia, and he never got hurt.
I never really considered Rollins because he just wasn’t a great hitter. He was merely a good hitter.
I went with Jim Eisenreich, who I also felt was sufficiently non-obvious.
Ditto. Figured it was Ashburn. I honestly thought he had more hits with Philadelphia.
I thought he ended up with 2700 or so hits with 2600+ with Philadelphia. I knew he played 1 year for NYM, did not realize he played 2 years with the Cubs.
Ashburn got his broadcasting start with the Cubs, doing televised youth clinics on WGN (or something like that – was before my time so I never saw them).
I went with Schmidt, could not think of a single other player worth considering. If I’d thought of Rollins and Ashburn I probably would have guessed Ashburn…but Schmidt is an inner circle HOFer who played a long career all in Philly, so who knows. Good quiz question!
I thought Ashburn as well…Jimmy wasn’t on my radar
Yeah, I was between Rollins and Schmidt and was trying to figure out which was supposed to be the obvious choice so I could go with the other; I picked wrong 😑
I sorta thought it might be some nobody from 100 years ago that I’d never heard of.
I went with Schmidt, thought Ashburn might be the answer. I totally forgot about Rollins.
Brian McCann, not James.
James would love to be HOF worthy.
So would Brian!
For 2024 Ramirez had a higher BA with 2 strikes than he did for the season as a whole. (.281 vs .279). I’m guessing that almost never happens
Lovely tribute to one of our peanut farming presidents.
I’m not sure I understand or agree with several of your choices.
Pedroia is a good player, but he really lacks any longevity. He only got to 44 WAR. It’s pretty hard to justify this one when there were and are more deserving candidates left off the ballot. I get you’re from Boston or support them and like Pedroia, but it’s really hard to justify this one.
I also don’t understand how you can vote for Pettite, but not Buehrle. By RA/9 WAR, it’s 59.9 for Buehrle and 61.4 for Pettite. However, Petitte only had 3 years of 5 and greater, 2 of which were 7+. Buehrle by comparison was 5 years above 5, with another 3 years between 3.9 and 5. Pettite only had 3 years above 3.6.
In other words, Buehrle had a much better and longer peak. And he did this without any taint of cheating.
I can understand voting for Buehrle and Pettite, and I can understand voting for Buehrle. I cannot understand or justify Pettite, an inferior pitcher who had the fortune of pitching for the Yankees, over Buehrle.
The reasoning in the article:
Part of the Hall of Fame is “fame”, and you get extra credit for World Series heroics. I agree that they were much the same pitcher, otherwise.
And here’s a fun fact: Mark Buehrle only started one World Series game, and it was against Andy Pettitte.
I actually don’t think Andy Pettitte is that famous, though, and his postseason heroics only get bandied about by hall of fame voters explaining his inclusion on their ballots. There is no other lore surrounding Pettitte. He was basically the same pitcher statistically in the playoffs as he was in the regular season, and was always just another part of the Yankees dynasty, not a postseason hero.
And if we are using the fame argument then every Pettitte voter should also have Felix, as he was much more of an icon.
To be clear, I’m not sure I’d vote for Buehrle, either. But I definitely wouldn’t put Pettitte over him.
I’ll take Pettitte and Buehrle over Felix, while thinking neither of them are locks (Felix isn’t Tim Hudson, much less Johan – save the “How do we define a modern HoF?” energy for Cole Hamels, people!) and definitely agree that you can’t have one without the other…but an 84 ERA- in front of those Yankees defenses is a 5 rWAR pace.
And that game was a classic.
Buehrle does worse than Pettitte with Fangraphs and Baseball Projection WAR, and Tom Thress Win-Loss Records. Pettitte has an edge in playoff value. Buehrle has as case, but I’d take Pettitte first too.
I really don’t mind people having their own local bias votes- that’s why there are so many voters. I’m glad that there is no single perfect hall of fame ballot- that’d be boring!
I can’t see Pedroia either. He had a couple of great years, a handful of all-star ones, and his defense was likely done giving him great value regardless of injury. Being arguably the best 2nd basemen (argument is maybe 1st, not 3rd) in Red Sox history isn’t really anything. Since the Mariners/Jays expansion (1977), he’s 12th in second base WAR, and a lot of guys in front of him aren’t in either. Bbref WAR gives Pedroia a lot more love (52 vs 45 WAR here), but it also boosts #s for Kinsler, Randolph, Phillips, etc.
I love a big hall, but he seems like he’s behind a lot of guys here.
I’m 100% with this “While more a workmanlike performer than a bona fide star throughout his career”.
Which is how I can’t understand how he could possibly be a Hall of Famer.
For a kid from Detroit who worshipped the 1968 champs, the McCann-Freehan comparison is fascinating. However, Bill did his in an era with severely repressed offense. And sad to see Gary Sutherland on the deceased roster. One of those players who bridged the 1968 and 1984 eras.
I loved Big Frank when he was playing and don’t want to undercut any analysis that underscores his wonderful career, BUT the comparison raises an old question: How do you weigh the last few years of a career that were in serious decline? For Pujols first ~10,500 PAs he slashed .309/392/531/965 157+ OPS+ with 591 HR. Do you mark him down (just a little) because he still wanted to play baseball even if his total contribution in his last 5 years was basically 0 WAR? I don’t know, but I can’t bring myself to urge someone who they will let playing in the majors to stop.
Yes! It doesn’t negate all the awesome things that came before, but if you count the “good stuff” you gotta count the “less good stuff” as well.
He tacked on some HR/RBI onto his counting stats which he gets full credit for, but you do have to likewise account for the drag on his rate stats.
Zaza Harvey is a great baseball name!
Pettitte over Buehrle will forever mystify me. The former has more postseason accolades to be sure, but that seems like rewarding someone for the contributions of their teammates. And Buehrle’s postseason accomplishments when he got there are similar. It’s like voting based on RBI. To my mind, Buehrle is the more accomplished pitcher – the list of guys with 14 200+IP seasons is a bunch of HoFers and him, the likes of which we’ll never see again. This distinction alone puts him over the top with an otherwise bubble candidacy, nevermind the no no & perfect game that Pettitte never did (accomplishments also in large part dependent on teammates.)