The 2016 Single-Game Pitching Belt: Kershaw vs. Velasquez

Earlier this week, we again utilized granular batted-ball data to determine whether Vince Velasquez could hold onto the championship belt for the best single-game pitching performance of the season. He did so, beating out Max Scherzer‘s 20-strikeout performance. To this point, we’ve also matched the Phils’ righthander against Jaime Garcia‘s one-hitter and Jake Arrieta’s no-hitter.

When one is discussing pitching excellence, it’s only a matter of time before Clayton Kershaw enters the discussion. Today, let’s match up Velasquez’16 K, 0 BB vanquishing of the Padres on April 14 to, well, Kershaw’s entire body of 2016 work.

For an outing to be eligible for championship belt consideration, it must last at least nine innings. This means that three of Kershaw’s outings, his complete game shutouts of the Padres, Mets and Reds on May 1, 12 and 23, respectively, will be matched up against Velasquez’ gem. For each outing, we simply look at every batted ball allowed, and first calculate each pitcher’s single-game Adjusted Contact Score based on exit speed and angle data. Then, we add back the Ks and BBs, and calculate each pitcher’s single-game “tru” ERA-.

Velasquez vs. Kershaw – Exit Speed/Angle Data

			AVG ALL	AVG FLY	AVG LD	AVG GB	AVG VERT
Velasquez	vs. SD	14-Apr	88.1	89.1	87.2	87.4	20.8
Kershaw	vs. SD	1-May	81.1	80.5	76.3	83.5	6.8
Kershaw	vs. NYM	12-May	81.9	86.1	86.9	80.9	8.3
Kershaw	vs. CIN	23-May	82.9	81.4	88.4	81.9	1.6
Kershaw	All	Games	86.3	87.6	90.9	83.5	6.9
MLB Avg.	Thru	18-May	89.4	90.0	93.5	87.4	11.0

First, let’s take a step back and appreciate Kershaw’s greatness. We’ve gone to great lengths to single out Velasquez’ effort as a shining example of pitching excellence, placing it above a no-hitter and a 20-strikeout, zero walk, tour de force, among others. Well, compare it to Kershaw’s average effort this season.

The Dodger lefty’s average overall authority allowed is quite a bit lower than Velasquez’ belt-holding single-game average; ditto Kershaw’s average fly-ball and grounder authority allowed. The two pitchers shared very high-K, low-BB profiles in their signature outings, but with regard to balls in play, they got it done quite differently. The Phils’ righty is a fly-ball pitcher who gets plenty of pop ups. An average vertical angle of 20.8 is very high; even for a single game it’s up there in Chris Young, Jered Weaver territory.

On the other hand, Kershaw supplements all of those strikeouts with a ton of ground balls; his average vertical angle of 6.9 — for the season — is way down there in Dallas Keuchel land. In each of the three individual Kershaw efforts we are examining, he has bettered his seasonal BIP authority levels. And those seasonal levels are pretty special on their own. When you get down to it, Kershaw is as good as he is because he racks up strikeouts, minimizes walks and manages contact at very extreme levels; to be truly inner-inner-circle elite, you have to excel at all three.

Let’s look just a little closer at the four outings we’re placing under the microscope. While Velasquez did allow four line drives, he yielded only a single 100-mph batted ball, a grounder. Every fly ball he allowed sat squarely in the 75-94 mph “donut hole,” within which hitters bat around .100 with little power. Though Velasquez’ average authority allowed is higher than Kershaw’s, it’s because of those cans of corn, which are utterly harmless.

Kershaw, whose liner rate allowed is actually quite ordinary this season, allowed a grand total of six liners in these three starts combined, and only one on May 1 versus the Padres. Of the 52 batted balls allowed in these three starts, a grand total of two of them were hit at 100 mph or harder. Both were recorded by the Mets on May 12: a line single by Asdrubal Cabrera and a hard ground out by Juan Lagares. Over 20% of the grounders hits in MLB this season were hit at 100 mph or harder; in these three starts, one of 27 grounders — less than 4% — reached that threshold.

An early splitting of hairs among the three over-the-top Kershaw performances points us toward the Kershaw’s May 1 game, a 14 K and 0 BB three-hit shutout of the Padres. The start features fewest liners allowed, tied for the fewest fly balls allowed, with none hit hard enough to escape the upper boundary of the donut hole. That, in particular, appears to be a worthy adversary to Velasquez’ effort.

Let’s now compare the four outings by calculating Adjusted Contact Scores and “tru” ERAs for each, crediting each batted ball with the MLB average production for its speed/angle “bucket,” and then comparing to the MLB average run environment thus far in 2016. In each category, league average is represented by 100.

Single-Outing Adjusted Contact Score/”Tru” ERA

			FLY	LD	GB	ADJ C	TRU
Velasquez	vs. SD	14-Apr	15	73	78	51	14
Kershaw	vs. SD	1-May	30	76	54	24	8
Kershaw	vs. NYM	12-May	12	85	70	34	17
Kershaw	vs. CIN	23-May	63	92	60	66	54
Kershaw	All	Games	47	96	72	77	45

The first three columns represent Adjusted Contact Scores for the major BIP types; the fourth, the Average Contact Score for all BIP combined; and the last, the “tru” ERA for each performance with all the K and BB added back.

First, let’s pay proper respect to Kershaw’s season as a whole. As if the 95:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio isn’t enough, his overall Adjusted Contact Score of 77 also resides in the elite level. He has suffocated contact both in the air (47 Fly Ball Adjusted Contact Score) and on the ground (72). It’s really not fair. His year-to-date “tru” ERA- of 45 is right in the same range as his traditional ERA- (39) and FIP- (36).

But his overall greatness is a given; we’re here to boil it down to individual outings. As you might expect, the May 23 two-hit shutout of the Reds falls out of the competition quickly. He only had seven strikeouts on that day, and was actually quite a bit fortunate. While his overall Adjusted Contact Score of 66 on that day betters his seasonal mark, his “tru” ERA- of 54 is actually worse than his seasonal mark. Yes, a two-hit complete-game shutout was actually a below-average effort by Kershaw’s stratospheric standards.

Kershaw’s May 12 outing is almost a dead ringer for Velasquez’ April 14 effort. Their individual BIP type Adjusted Contact Scores are quite close, but Velasquez’ overall Adjusted Contact Score is higher (by 51 to 34) due to the fact he allowed twice as many line drives. Their respective Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Scores of 15 and 12 are nearly impossible to beat; nothing but donut-hole fly balls to see here.

Then there’s Kershaw’s May 1 game. Most notably, Kershaw allowed only one liner, to Velasquez’ four, and his grounder Adjusted Contact Score of 54 is amazing, even at this level of competition. In a neutral environment, all of the batted balls allowed by Kershaw on May 1 “should have” resulted in a .184 AVG and .213 SLG, for a 24 Adjusted Contact Score. Add back the 14 K (and no walks), and you have a truly stunning single-game “tru” ERA- of 8. Padre fans might be quick to note that both outings happened against their club, so there aren’t contextual differences present.

There have been an awful lot of incredible individual pitching performances this season. Kershaw’s dominance is so all-encompassing that it’s easy to take for granted. A great performance for almost any other major-league starter runs the risk of being below average on the big southpaw’s grading curve. Every five days, we should all set aside about 2 hours and 20 minutes to witness true greatness.