The AL Central Is Not Done With You: Tigers vs. Guardians AL Wild Card Preview

Well, you asked for more of the American League Central. Or at least, I assume you asked for more of the American League Central. Major League Baseball definitely thinks you want more of the American League Central; why else would the league schedule all three Wild Card games between the Tigers and the Guardians for 1:08 PM Eastern? That’s prime time (assuming you’re a middle schooler who’s home with strep throat). The only division without a 90-game winner is sending two teams to the playoffs, and the Guardians and Tigers will spend three days in Cleveland fighting over the honor of facing the Mariners in the ALDS. That may not be enough to dethrone the Red Sox and the Yankees in terms of scheduling, but it’s a repeat of last year’s thrilling ALDS matchup, which went the full five games and ended with the unlikeliest outcome of all: Tarik Skubal losing a game.

The two teams couldn’t be coming into the Wild Card round on more different trajectories. The Tigers ended their series quietly with a loss to the Red Sox on Sunday. That loss handed the division title to the Guardians, who went on to beat the Rangers with a walk-off homer in the 10th inning just for funsies:

At the All-Star break, the Tigers had the best record in baseball, while the Guardians ranked 22nd. Since the All-Star break, the Guardians have the best record in baseball; the Tigers rank 21st. I can keep going.

The Guardians finished the season winning 19 of their last 23 games; the Tigers lost 13 of their last 16. The two teams played 13 times this season, with the Guardians taking eight games and the Tigers taking five. Six of those games took place over the past two weeks, and the Guardians won five of them. Put it all together, and Cleveland became the first team ever to trail the division (or league) leader by at least 11 games in the month of September and then come back to win. The Tigers blew a 15 1/2-game lead in order to finish second in the division:

The Guardians have now won their second straight division title and their third in four years. The Tigers haven’t won the division since 2014, and this is just the third time over that stretch they’ll finish as high as second. They’re probably not too scared, though. Although they won’t have home field advantage, plenty of numbers indicate that they’re the better team. They’ve got a better run differential and Pythagorean record than the Guardians. As Jay Jaffe reminds us every fall, success in September is no guarantee of success in October. The Tigers also out-homered the Guardians by more than 30, and as Dan Szymborski has told us, teams that rely on homers tend to do slightly better in the postseason.

Then there’s the really good news for Detroit: Skubal will be taking the ball tomorrow for Game 1. He’s going to win his second straight Cy Young. He’s got a 2.33 ERA against the Guardians over 12 career starts in the regular season, and despite that loss, he put up a 3.46 mark against them in the ALDS last year. He’s got a 0.64 ERA against Cleveland over four starts in 2025. The Tigers started Chris Paddack on Sunday specifically to make sure that Skubal would be ready to go tomorrow. Despite a scare when he left his September 12 start early due to tightness in his left side, he never missed a turn and seems fully healthy.

The Tigers won’t be rolling with a pitching chaos strategy this season. Their bullpen has ranked toward the middle of the pack according to most metrics, but its 4.33 FIP ranks 23rd in baseball. Detroit’s starting pitching will likely need to deliver, so let’s take a look at the likely matchups. On the other side, the Guardians pitched Logan Allen on Sunday, and look likely to roll out a starting rotation of Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, and Slade Cecconi. In a weird twist, Games 1 and 2 of the series will be repeat matchups from September 23 and 24. As in, September 23 and 24, from last week. Cecconi is the only probable starter who hasn’t faced the other team in the past week. For each game, I’ve highlighted the better ERA and the better xFIP:

All that yellow on the bottom row certainly makes it look like you have to give the Tigers the edge in this department.

I know it seems like we talk every year about how the Guardians got to the postseason due to pitching and defense rather than hitting, but it’s never been more true. With a team wRC+ of just 87, the Guardians rank 28th in baseball. That’s their worst mark since 1991. If you’re keeping score at home, that’s more than 30 years ago. The Reds are the only other playoff team that ranks worse than 13th in terms of wRC+. José Ramírez has a 133 wRC+. Kyle Manzardo is at 113. No other Guardian has put up even a league-average batting line this season, and that’s true even if you just look at the second half of the season. If you look only at the month of September, when the Guardians have turned on the afterburners, rookie C.J. Kayfus (145), Bo Naylor (136), and Steven Kwan (100) jump onto the list among those with at least 50 plate appearances. Still, as Sam Miller wrote a few days ago, “Any strike, in any situation, to José Ramírez is a huge mistake.” If the Tigers can contain Ramírez – no easy task, to be sure! – they have to feel good about their chances.

The Tigers aren’t necessarily slugging the lights out either. Over the course of the season, their 103 wRC+ ranked 11th in baseball. That mark was 108 at the All-Star break, and even during their disastrous September, they put up an 87 – the exact same as the Guardians put up all season long. As a result, nobody’s coming in hot. Jahmai Jones, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Zach McKinstry, Kerry Carpenter, Gleyber Torres, Dillon Dingler, and Colt Keith – that’s eight players! – all put up a wRC+ of at least 109 this season, but only Jones and McKinstry reached that mark during the month of September. They’ll have to face a Cleveland bullpen that led the league with a 3.49 FIP and finished in the top five in ERA, xERA, and WAR, despite losing one Emmanuel Clase in July due to a gambling investigation.

In some ways, this whole series will be a referendum on momentum. The Guardians have been on fire and they’ve crushed the Tigers lately. They’ve got better pitching and defense, and even their offense has been better of late. But the Tigers have the best pitcher in the AL, and it’s hard to argue that they haven’t been the better team over the course of the season. Do you trust that Jack Flaherty’s FIP is nearly half a run better than Tanner Bibee’s, or do you trust that Bibee has beaten the Tigers twice in the month of September while putting up a 3-0 record, a 1.30 ERA, and a 2.38 FIP? Do you just listen to the annoying voice in your head telling you that it’s three games and pretty much anything could happen? Cleveland and Detroit will get three more games to settle it once and for all, and even if you live on the East Coast, they’ll be done in time for supper.