The Angels’ Offseason of Run-Prevention

Projected standings in December have little value beyond serving as a conversation starter. By our depth charts, remaining free agents are still projected to accumulate more than 50 WAR this season. Consequently, projected standings will continue to change over the rest of the winter as more signings and trades occur. As I said, though, they’re good conversation starters, and one of the more interesting conversations they’ve started this winter revolves around whether or not the Angels might actually be good in 2017.

As things stand right now, the Angels are projected to go 85-77 and finish second in the AL West behind the Astros. Not only that, but those projected 85 wins represent the fourth-highest projected total in all the American League. Does that mean it’s time to start printing up postseason tickets in Anaheim? Of course not. It’s possible, however — even in the middle of the offseason — to get a sense of current roster strengths and weaknesses from the depth charts that appear here. That’s true of every team.

Take a look at the Angels’ depth chart, for example, and you’ll find that they’re doing A-OK in center field thanks to Mike Trout, but that left field is a bit of a weak spot due to the comparatively limited projected production of Cameron Maybin. That’s certainly a conclusion which passes the sniff test.

However, even the use of projections to diagnose roster weaknesses can be misleading. The Angels’ starting rotation currently profiles to finish almost exactly in the middle of the pack among major-league teams — 16th out of 30 — which would represent a significant improvement for one of the league’s worst rotations of the 2016 season. While noting this potential for improvement, though, it’s important to recognize the unavoidable potential for deception in assigning one clean, round number to projected numbers — numbers, that is, which disguise an inherent degree of uncertainty. If Garrett Richards, Matt Shoemaker, and Tyler Skaggs are healthy and productive then, sure, the team is in good position to field an improved starting rotation. As Jeff Sullivan pointed out at the start of the offseason, however, all three of those pitchers carry significant health question marks.

Certainty in pitcher health is not a thing that exists for any team, but it’s a variable that’s even more relevant to these Angels than most other teams. The depth beyond their front three is virtually non-existent. They hope to have a league-average innings-eater type pitcher in Ricky Nolasco and then a gaggle of fifth-starter options including Jesse Chavez, John Lamb, Alex Meyer, and Nate Smith. With the weakness of the current free-agent starting-pitching market and a farm system that renders a trade for someone like Chris Archer or Jose Quintana pure fantasy, the Angels aren’t in a position to shore up their rotation before the start of the 2017 campaign. It’s more likely than not that they will sink or swim on the health of Richards, Shoemaker, and Skaggs.

Although it’s unlikely that the Angels will be able to add significant depth to their rotation between now and Opening Day, there is one thing they can do to help out their pitching staff and, perhaps, add a bit more certainty to their situation: field a strong defensive team. By our comprehensive team defensive metric (DEF), the Angels were the fourth-best defensive team last season.

2016 DEF Leaderboard
Team Def
Cubs 69.0
Giants 53.7
Royals 46.5
Angels 45.5
Indians 41.6

Having one of the best defensive teams in the league certainly seems like a great way to outperform fielding-independent pitching metrics and, as it turns out, the Angels were the second-biggest FIP overperformers last season, trailing only a Cubs team which was one of the best defensive teams we’ve ever seen:

team-def-v-e-f

Can the Angels build upon this strength and be even better defensively this season?

The obvious answer is “yes” for one very basic reason: even as we watch Francisco Lindor dazzle with the glove, the best defensive shortstop in the game remains the Angels’ Andrelton Simmons. Last season, Simmons missed a little more than a month with a thumb injury. The lost time cost him in the advanced defensive counting metric Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). In 2014 and 2015, Simmons was +28 and +25 in DRS, but last year he finished at +18 runs saved. A healthy, full season from Simmons could easily be worth at least an additional seven to 10 extra runs in defensive value.

Additionally, this winter the Angels bid farewell to their primary second baseman from last season, Johnny Giavotella, who is a middling defender at best, and brought in Danny Espinosa to replace him. Espinosa is no Simmons (because who is?) but he was a +8 defender at shortstop last season and is now moving back to an easier defensive position. Not only that, but Espinosa has plenty of experience at second base thanks to his many seasons playing alongside Ian Desmond.

There is one other up-the-middle defensive position on the infield where the Angels are looking for positive defensive: catcher. Last year’s catching tandem of Jett Bandy and Carlos Perez put up positive defensive value, but last week Bandy was sent to Milwaukee in exchange for Martin Maldonado. Both Bandy and Maldonado have good defensive reputations and Bandy has three additional years of team control remaining, but Maldonado does have one thing over Bandy. Per Baseball Prospectus’ catcher-framing metrics, Maldonado has consistently provided positive framing value throughout his career. At the very least, moving from Bandy to Maldonado shouldn’t hurt defensively, and if the framing skill translates, the Angels’ pitching staff could stand to benefit from their new backstop.

None of this is to say the Angels roster is without defensive shortcomings. After all, the team still has subpar defender Yunel Escobar at third base. (Although there’s no better way to mask a third baseman’s shortcomings than having Simmons patrolling immediately to his left.) What is important is a team that already possessed a strong defensive unit is in position to improve, thanks to a (hopefully) full season of Simmons and the additions of Espinosa and Maldonado. Will that be enough to overcome the uncertainty of their starting rotation, boost the effectiveness of their pitching staff, and help them live up to their still-too-early 85-win projection? Maybe. Maybe not. But given market realities, focusing on defense was their strongest play to counterbalance their rotation uncertainty and, so far, they’re getting it done.





Corinne Landrey writes for FanGraphs and MLB.com's Cut4 site. Follow her on Twitter @crashlandrey.

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noeckerrmember
7 years ago

Given that Angels LFs slashed .204/.271/.313 (dead last in OPS) in 2016 while combining for a (respectable) 1.3 Def, Maybin probably still a significant upgrade from any of the nine (9!) guys the Angels ran out to the position in 2016. He managed a -5.6 Def (-11 DRS) in CF for the Tigers; my money would be on him grading out better in left in LA.