The Battle of the Navy Blue Teams of the East: Rays vs. Yankees ALDS Preview
Welcome to the strong side of the bracket. This ain’t no Guardians-White Sox. They may not have been sanctified by the Bishop of Rome, but we’ve got a matchup between the Rays and the Yankees, the two best teams in the American League. Or, at least, the teams with the two best records. The Rays won 98 games, which gave them the best record in the American League by a whopping five-game margin. With 93 wins, the Yankees were the only team within 11 wins of the Rays! But according to both their BaseRuns and Pythagorean records, the Rays played above their heads and the Yankees are the better team.
The Rays won the season series, 7-6, but four of those 13 games took place very recently. In the penultimate series of the regular season, the Yankees took three of four from the Rays in the Bronx. Somehow, this is just the second time the Rays and Yankees have ever faced off in the playoffs. Tampa Bay beat New York, 3-2, in the 2020 ALDS. Gerrit Cole went 1-0 in two starts in the series, and Giancarlo Stanton batted .316 with four home runs. Aaron Judge knocked two homers of his own, but batted just .143. Yankees reliever Ryan Yarbrough pitched pretty well too, but he did so for the Rays. Anyway, that was six years ago in a season that just barely happened. So much for history.
In years past, we’ve hashed out and rehashed the great debate: Would you rather have a bye and risk the rust, or would you rather come off a series win, triumphant but unrested? This conversation has always been at least a little bit silly because it’s always better to take the bye; no one has ever lost a bye. Still, this year, it’s different. The Rays will be coming off five full days of rest. They could be rusty. But the Yankees won’t be tired. They got three days off before the Wild Card series, and they finished stomping a mudhole in the Red Sox on Wednesday night, giving them two full days off to recover. The entire bullpen is rested. Presumptive (read: 100% certain) AL Cy Young Cam Schlittler won’t pitch Game 1, but he’ll be on regular rest for Game 2 and a potential series-deciding Game 5. The offense that everyone was worried about just put up back-to-back nine-spots. Momentum may be a construct, but you’d still rather have it on your side, right?
Davy Andrews is a Brooklyn-based musician and a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @davyandrewsdavy.bsky.social.
Amed Rosario had the most PH appearances (24): he went
.190/.208/.381 (this is not shocking given that he just had the weirdest reverse platoon split season I’ve ever seen). Goldschmidt had 22: an absolutely ludicrous .067/.318/.133. 21 of those were against LHP, who he otherwise (not as a PH) hit .324/.407/.620 against.
I’m sure the .185 BABIP over 118 PAs didn’t help either.
Like you said, weird and a bit fluky.
Also, the Rays’ pinch-hitters had a wRC+ of 68 this year. The difference isn’t that great.
Thanks for saying that, ensuring that instead of an exciting series we’re going to get a boring blowout
As someone with a vested interest, I would love a low stakes blowout where the Yankees don’t have to stress too much before they advance to the CS.
Nothing can convince me that the Yankees are not the best team in baseball. I look at Schlittler and wonder how he ever gives up a run then see Fried, also a top of the rotation guy as is Cole and Rodon has been excellent. The bullpen, despite remembering that I had long since tossed Blackburn onto the scrap heap, isn’t bad. In all I rate the Yankees pitching on a par with the Dodgers. The part of their game that confused me all year was the offense. I see Rice and Bellinger and think this team, even without Judge and Stanton, must be able to score then realize that five of the regular starters are hitting below .231 with OPS below 100 and see the reason. However the thought that they will score enough is still there and I am looking at a very strong team that will be tough to beat.
You trying to jinx the Yanks here?
No but I think he’s just shellshocked at how badly and thoroughly his favorite team was beaten. So the Yankees must be the best team in the world.
“We were beaten by the best, boy”
The truth is I didn’t hold out much hope and the only shock all season was how this mediocre bunch put together that incredible streak.
Dude, Ben Rice is right freakin’ there. I do hope the Rays think like that too, though I doubt it.
The upvotes and downvotes seem to disagree with you, but it’s at the very least close. Rice has the edge in wRC+ (149 to 142), Caminero had just one more HR (42 to 41), and neither of them has all that established of a track record. Caminero is younger with a much better prospect pedigree, but maybe it just comes down to Ben Rice having the face of a 17 year old, who could fear a face like that?
I don’t know why Cole should outrank Rodon. Rays’ have the largest pitcher-handedness splits in the league this year (weaker against lefties), and Rodon looked significantly better than Cole did in actual starts against the Rays this year. Additionally, the Rays saw Cole 3 times already in 2026, whereas just once vs Rodon.
This feels like a seniority decision which runs counter to how the Yankees typically run their analytically-minded team.
Boone definitely defers at times to veteran-ness, though he’s gotten better at trusting his players, no matter their experience. I agree though, that Rodon’s been pitching better lately, and that their lineup is much weaker overall against LHP. I think Cole’s going to be on a short leash, which will piss him off, but if doesn’t want to get pulled he’s gonna have to earn it.
MOOOOOO
New article just dropped talking about how much Cole’s stuff plays up indoors, while Rodon’s is fairly static!
I dispute the title in this article. Despite the team officially wearing “Midnight Navy Blue”, that Yankee photo above is much closer to black.
It’s always been dark navy pinstripes, officially. But they might as well be black.
I fear after all the excitement of Brewers best record, Rays AL top record, good story White Sox, etc, we are going to end up with a NY v LA series….
So a huge ratings bonanza right before a lockout and maybe missing games? Sounds about right. A rematch of 2024 would be huge, especially with the Yankees trying to stop a threepeat so that the 90s Yankees are the last one on record.
A NYY vs. LAD WS would benefit the owners quite a bit. Arguably, the best outcome for the players would be MIL vs. CLE. Isn’t CLE last in payroll?