The Best Bunts of the Season (So Far)

Earlier this week, I took a look at the worst bunts of the season. They were all horrible! Balls were hit directly at fielders, lead runners were thrown out, and altogether the worst five bunts produced eight outs and no base advancements. Not great! But that’s only one side of the coin, and today I’d like to look at the bunts that have helped the batting team most so far this year.

You’ll notice that there aren’t any textbook sacrifice bunts on either list. That’s no knock on skilled bunters, but rather a function of the way I’m defining best and worst. Bunts, by their very nature, are hedges. They reduce volatility by definition — exchanging an out for some base advances is neither the worst nor best outcome of a given plate appearance, so a successful sacrifice bunt will inherently have a modest change in win probability relative to a play where something goes very right or very wrong.

Even so, today isn’t solely a showcase of bad defense. There’s some bad defense, but there’s also plenty of bunting for a hit. When you change the math by giving yourself a chance to reach base, bunts become far more valuable. It’s hard to greatly increase your team’s chances of winning while also making an out, so separating the sacrifice from the bunt is a prerequisite for having one of the most valuable bunts of the year.

For the most part, the plays on this list are all baseball being played at a high level. There are some defensive howlers, sure, but there’s plenty of skill here on both sides of the ball. Let’s take a look at the bunts that have helped out the most this year (through June 9), starting with an honorable mention.

June 3, Edmundo Sosa, St. Louis Cardinals

The situation: The Cardinals had been sputtering all game, but they started the ninth inning with a single. They trailed by two runs, with a runner on first and no one out. This was the biggest spot in the game so far — the difference between an out and a baserunner would be monumental.

The play:

The gain: +0.14 WPA
Do you like nearly perfect bunts? I sure do, and Sosa executed this one exactly like you’d draw it up. The defense wasn’t expecting it, because Sosa swung away at the first pitch. Neither the pitcher nor the catcher ever had a play on it, and it wasn’t even close to rolling foul. I’m not sure he could have placed it better if he tossed the ball instead of bunting it. It’s not one of the top five bunts by WPA, but it’s absolutely perfect, and totally deserving of being on this list, particularly when you consider that the very next play featured the worst bunt of the year.

With that beautiful play out of the way, let’s get to the top five.

5. April 10, Braden Bishop, Seattle Mariners

The situation: Bishop led off the top of the 10th inning against the Twins. With Taylor Trammell on second base, Bishop didn’t mess around; he showed bunt immediately and bunted the first pitch foul. Bunting in the top half of an extra inning is an iffy tactical decision, but Bishop is a career .133/.188/.156 hitter, so exchanging an out for a base wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world.

The play:

The gain: +0.17 WPA
This one went into the books as a bunt single, but a fair accounting of the play would find some fault with Taylor Rogers. Rogers had to hurry, and his momentum was carrying him away from first base. Despite all of that, though, he fielded the ball and wheeled to first in under three seconds, giving him enough time to get Bishop if he hurried. The ball stuck in his glove briefly, and by the time he freed it, there was no point in a throw. This play was the difference in the game. The Mariners hit a one-out sacrifice fly and the run held up. A worse bunt, or a cleaner transfer, and things would have turned out differently. Such is the nature of bunting — every split second matters.

4. May 8, Andrew Knapp, Philadelphia Phillies

The situation: Top of the 12th, with runners on first and second and no outs. Knapp was called on to pinch hit, and while he certainly wasn’t a lock to bunt, it’s a reasonable situation to sacrifice an out. Atlanta played him roughly halfway; the corner infielders weren’t fully crashing, but were in on the grass nonetheless.

The play:

The gain: +0.18 WPA
Like the previous play, this one highlights the value of a well-placed bunt. A clean pickup by William Contreras would have gotten Knapp — but he had to spin, barehand the ball, and make a throw. Major league catchers usually make that play — but they don’t always make it, and there’s truly no margin for error. A successful sacrifice there would have been a small benefit to the Phillies. Knapp put it in a spot where he was either going to win big or win small, and won big — exactly what he was hoping to do.

3. April 22, J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners

The situation: Top of the eighth, down by a run, with runners on first and second and no one out. Crawford isn’t a prolific bunter, but he was showing bunt the whole way; he bunted Adam Ottavino’s first offering foul before taking a slider low. The Red Sox played a hybrid defense; they left part of a shift on, which meant Rafael Devers had to make a judgment call on whether to retreat and cover third or charge and take an out at first.

The play:

The gain: +0.19 WPA
Crawford did exactly what you’re not supposed to do: hit the ball directly back to the pitcher with force. Devers made an easy read; he had time to retreat to the bag and set to receive a throw. Even with Sam Haggerty running, there was time for a back-breaking force out at third base. But Ottavino simply yanked it. I couldn’t find a perfect angle on the broadcast, but Devers didn’t have much of a shot at digging that ball out; a clean pick would have been near-impossible. Crawford goofed up, but Ottavino did him one better, and turned a poor bunt into a tie ballgame.

2. April 21, Nicky Lopez, Kansas City Royals

The situation: Bottom of the ninth, down by a run, with a runner on third and one out. It’s not just any runner, though; Jarrod Dyson, still one of the best baserunners in the game at 36, had already stolen a bag and advanced on a grounder. Lopez leads the majors in sacrifice bunts this year; a squeeze play felt like a decent bet, and the Rays put a few infielders on the grass to account for it.

The play:

The gain: +0.22 WPA
Some plays are just undefendable. Dyson is fast. Diego Castillo isn’t an elite fielder. Lopez is a solid bunter (when he’s not popping into triple plays). Joey Wendle couldn’t start early, because Dyson could simply follow him down the line. A side angle shows the futility in trying to stop a run from scoring here:

What can you do other than tip your cap? The only way that Tampa Bay could have turned this play into an out is if Mike Zunino abandoned home plate and tried to reach the ball and throw to first, but good luck telling a catcher to abandon home plate with the tying run bearing down. This play is why bunts still capture the imagination, even if they’re often a bad tactical decision by the numbers.

1. May 23, Jordan Luplow, Cleveland

The situation: Bottom of the ninth, with Cleveland trailing by a run with runners on first and third and one out. Cesar Hernandez can flat-out fly, so the Twins were hoping for a strikeout or a double play; they pinched the corners slightly and shifted. They weren’t getting Hernandez on a grounder up the middle anyway, so selling out for a double play seemed reasonable.

The play:

The gain: +0.25 WPA
Alex Kirilloff nearly made a heroic play. The Twins weren’t ready for a bunt. There was no one covering first base, and Kirilloff had to charge a long way to make a play; Hansel Robles had no chance at the well-placed bunt. Kirilloff nearly managed it, but his desperate scoop was moments too late. Look at where he started his charge when Luplow squared to bunt:

He just wasn’t close enough. Even on a dead run and with a perfect scoop and flip, it was an impossible play. When analysts deride bunts, they don’t mean this one, or Lopez’s masterpiece. Attacking the defense when it’s unprepared is a canny move. The Twins gave Luplow a margin of error by staying back, playing him in a normal defensive alignment that mostly ignored the possibility of a squeeze play. Would Luplow’s bunt have been good enough against a closer first baseman? Probably not. But it didn’t have to be, because he took advantage of what he was given. It was a heady play — and the best bunt of the season, at least so far.