The Brewers Tap Their Farm System To Add Dustin May and a Pair of Relievers

The Brewers pulled up short in their pursuit of Tarik Skubal, but ahead of Monday’s trade deadline, they did augment both their rotation and their bullpen. In a deal with the fading Cardinals, Milwaukee acquired 28-year-old righty starter Dustin May and 29-year-old lefty reliever JoJo Romero in exchange for a pair of outfield prospects, Alexander Frias and Josiah Ragsdale. Separately, the Brewers also traded for 31-year-old righty reliever Antonio Senzatela from the Rockies in deal for two more prospects, left-hander Mark Manfredi and shortstop Juan Martinez.

At 69-42, the Brewers entered Monday with the majors’ best record, half a game better than the Dodgers (69-43). Led by Jacob Misiorowski — whose 1.63 ERA, 2.05 FIP, 40.6% strikeout rate, and 5.0 WAR all lead the majors — their rotation has the NL’s lowest ERA (3.48) and the majors’ lowest FIP (3.54), highest strikeout rate (26.4%), and highest WAR (17.8). Misiorowski and fellow starters Brandon Sproat, Logan Henderson, Shane Drohan, and Robert Gasser are all 27 or younger, and all but Misiorowski and Sproat have thrown fewer than 100 major league innings in their careers. They’re all likely to face workload concerns at some point, so adding another starter at the deadline was a necessity even if he wasn’t someone who might give the team’s odds of winning the World Series a CC Sabathia-sized lift, as Skubal would have.

May, whom the Cardinals signed to a one-year, $12.5 million deal in December, is in the midst of an uneven season that nonetheless has represented a substantial step forward in his injury-wracked major league career. Rocked for 13 runs in 7 1/3 innings across his first two starts for the Redbirds, he proceeded to go on the best run of his career, putting up a 2.54 ERA and a 2.68 FIP in 74 1/3 innings over his next 12 starts, a stretch that included a no-hit bid against the Brewers on May 27, albeit one that ended in frustration. May held the Brewers hitless for seven innings, striking out nine while allowing only two baserunners, one on a hit-by-pitch and the other on a catcher’s interference. He’d thrown just 72 pitches to that point, giving him a real shot at finishing the job, but Garrett Mitchell led off the eighth with a double just over the head of left fielder Bryan Torres, and then Luis Rengifo bunted for a base hit. May got the hook from manager Oliver Marmol and could only watch as Romero let in both runs in what turned out to be a 2-1 defeat.

May capped that 12-start run with 15 scoreless innings, shutting out the Mets for six innings at Citi Field on June 9, and then throwing the first complete game of his career, a one-hit shutout of the Padres in St. Louis. He was perfect through six innings in that latter start before issuing a leadoff walk to Fernando Tatis Jr. to start the seventh. One out later, he lost the no-hitter on a single by Manny Machado.

Throwing 101 pitches in each of those scoreless outings — three short of the career high he set with the Dodgers in 2023 — took a toll. May was rocked for six runs in two innings against the Royals while battling lower back tightness on June 21. The Cardinals skipped his next start, but he didn’t even make it out of the first inning in his return on July 2, getting charged with five runs in two-thirds of an inning and taking a Dominic Smith line drive off his right ankle, forcing his removal. Fortunately, X-rays revealed nothing more than a contusion. After that, St. Louis kept him on a shorter leash; while May lasted longer than five innings just once in his final five turns with the Cardinals, breaking 90 pitches just once, he produced a 2.92 ERA and a 2.41 FIP in those 24 2/3 innings.

Apparently, that was enough to convince the Brewers he was in working order. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, who were 47-39 as of July 4, have gone an NL-worst 8-18 since then, with their Playoff Odds falling from 46.7% to 6.9% in that span, a plunge that convinced them to further their youth movement by dealing May, Romero, and Lars Nootbaar for prospects. (We’ll have a separate piece from Michael Baumann on Nootbaar’s trade to the Diamondbacks.)

Overall, May has pitched to a 4.38 ERA, more than half a run lower than the mark he put up last year between the Dodgers and Red Sox, who traded for him last July 31. Under the hood, he’s made even bigger improvements:

May’s drop in home run rate is the majors’ largest among pitchers with at least 100 innings last season and 70 this season. Additionally, while his 90-mph average exit velocity and 46% hard-hit rate are both in the ballpark of last season’s numbers, he’s cut his barrel rate from 9.2% to 6.4%; that’s the 13th-largest drop using the same innings cutoffs.

So what’s changed for May? I went into much greater detail when I wrote about him in the wake of his Citi Field start, but the shorter version is that he’s regained some of his lost velocity while increasing the usage of his four-seamer, sweeper, and changeup, reintroducing a curveball into his repertoire, and continuing to adjust his arm angles.

Circa 2020, May’s sinker averaged 97.7 mph and went 99 or higher 6.4% of the time. By 2023, that average dropped to 96.6 mph, with 0.8% of those sinkers reaching 99 or higher. When he returned last year after a surgical double-whammy that included his second Tommy John surgery in 2023 (accompanied by the repair of a torn flexor tendon) and then the repair of a freak esophageal tear in ’24, he was down to an average of 94.5 mph and didn’t touch 99 once. This year, he’s back up to an average of 96.6 mph, though he’s dialed just three sinkers up to 99. His four-seamer has followed a similar pattern, averaging 99.1 mph in 2020, falling to 97.3 mph by ’23, then to 95.4 mph last year. This year, he’s back up to 96.9 mph. His other pitches have shown similar gains.

Yet May has had to address more than just his velocity. Even in his hardest-throwing days, his four-seamer didn’t generate many whiffs because of its dead zone-y nature (roughly 15 inches of induced vertical break, around league average), as Michael Baumann noted after the righty failed to crack our Top 50 Free Agents list last November. May dropped his arm angle on the pitch, from 35 degrees in 2023 to 27 degrees in ’25, giving it less rise and more arm-side run while still distinguishing it from his sinker, which has averaged over 18 inches of arm-side movement — but that reduced the pitch’s ability to miss barrels and cost his sweeper its curveball-like depth. So he’s raised his arm angle back up to 37 degrees this year, and has landed on a reasonably effective combination of angles and offerings that has helped to mitigate a wide platoon split. Here’s his repertoire, which differs significantly based upon the handedness of the hitter:

And here are his platoon splits:

Generally, this has worked out well. Even with opposing teams stuffing more lefties into the lineup against May, he’s lowered his wOBA allowed by trading in some extra-base hits for singles; that’s an ISO drop of 118 points, from .234 to .116, and a home run rate more than cut in half. Meanwhile, he’s made even more impressive gains against righties, particularly by avoiding walks and homers.

It’s not clear yet how the Brewers will arrange what has generally been a six-man rotation. They also have Kyle Harrison on the verge of returning from a bout of forearm tightness. Suffice it to say, they have options.

As for the relievers, Romero, who is on the injured list after undergoing an emergency appendectomy in mid-July, has pitched to a 3.35 ERA and a 4.00 FIP in 43 innings this year, numbers that represent a step back from last season, when he put up a 2.07 ERA and a 3.28 FIP in 61 innings. While his strikeout and walk rates have improved from last season (the former increasing from 21.6% to 23.1%, the latter decreasing from 11.4% to 8.6%), his home run rate has more than tripled, from 0.3 per nine to 1.05, and his wOBA allowed against lefties has jumped from .246 to .351. (He’s gone from .278 to .287 against righties.)

Romero has at least been trending in the right direction. He was rocked for seven runs in 6 1/3 innings spread over eight appearances from June 2 to June 21, thanks in large part to a 95.7-mph average exit velocity and a 13.6% barrel rate. Since then, however, he’s allowed just two runs (one earned) in 10 innings and 10 appearances, with his average exit velo back down to 87.1 mph and his barrel rate to 9.7%. It’s a small sample, but a step forward.

His timeline for a return is unclear, but he resumed playing catch on July 30. Once he’s healthy, he’ll likely slot in as the second lefty in the pecking order, below Aaron Ashby.

Senzatela spent most of his first nine seasons with the Rockies — interrupted by July 2023 Tommy John surgery — working as a starter, but after putting up a 6.65 ERA and a 5.48 FIP in 130 innings last season, he’s become a full-time reliever, and an effective, high-leverage one at that. In 52 1/3 innings, he’s posted a 3.61 ERA and a 3.36 FIP. He’s shaken up his repertoire, adding a cutter, doubling his sinker usage, and all but ditching his slider, and he’s gained 2.4 mph in average four-seam velocity:

Baumann went into greater depth regarding Senzatela’s changes in late May, and while the righty’s performance has regressed a great deal since then — he put up ERAs of 8.18 in June and 6.48 in July — his advances are still notable and give a smart team like the Brewers plenty to work with. Where batters hit .352 and slugged .538 with a 12.9% whiff rate against Senzatela’s four-seamer last year, they’re batting .266 and slugging .392 with a 29.3% whiff rate against the pitch this year. And against his new cutter, they’re hitting .217 and slugging .319 with a 25.9% whiff rate. He will probably slot into the hierarchy as a middle-innings righty, somewhere below closer Trevor Megill, setup man Abner Uribe, and perhaps others.

The Brewers are taking on a bit more than $9 million in payroll by assuming the remaining salaries of the three veterans. May is making $12 million this year and has a $500,000 buyout of a $20 million mutual option for next year. Romero is making $4.26 million this year and is a pending free agent. Senzatela is making $12 million this year, with a $14 million club option (and no buyout) for next year.

Milwaukee approached this deadline with one of the game’s strongest systems, and had to give up quality prospects to acquire May and Romero. The 18-year-old Frias is a 50-FV prospect who recently cracked our updated Top 100 Prospects list at no. 42, with Eric Longenhagen and Brendan Gawlowski describing him as “a freak with crazy bat speed and physical projection, the guy on the list with the best shot to have a Junior Caminero type of rise.” The 6-foot-2, 177-pound outfielder began his first stateside season by putting up video-game numbers in the Arizona Complex League (.441/.518/.678) before moving up to A-level Wilson (North Carolina), where he hit .236/.328/.418 in a league where the average player is 2.3 years older. In other words, he’s already taken a step forward from our prospect team’s assessment in November, though a lot there remains relevant:

Frias signed for $350,000 as a projectable corner outfielder with hitterish traits. He has the frame to grow into above-average power, and he’s a sleeper to be the biggest overachiever in Milwaukee’s 2025 international class. He’s eons away, and has some things to clean up at the plate, but the early returns on Frias’ raw power and feel for contact give him an everyday ceiling in right field. He’s also got an absolute hose for an arm which, in addition to its obvious on-field utility, is another indication that we’re dealing with the kind of athlete who could break out in the next couple of years.

The 22-year-old Ragsdale, a seventh-round 2025 pick out of Boston College, has hit .316/.441/.581 (161 wRC+) with 19 homers and 31 steals in just 86 games split between High-A Wisconsin and Double-A Biloxi, a performance that led Gawlowski to anoint him “Milwaukee’s breakout prospect this year” while grading him as a 40+ FV prospect. More from his recent writeup:

He’s twitchy with wiry strength, and his full-body swing helps him generate more power than you’d expect looking at him, in a way that bears some resemblance to how Dominic Canzone does it. Ragsdale doesn’t have that much juice, but he’s a lot faster. He’s a 70 runner, and while his reads and routes aren’t pristine, he has wheels enough for the job. How much he’s able to grow there, and how well he’s able to handle lefties — he’s making viable contact against them but with no power — will shape his ultimate big league role. For now, we’re projecting him as a fancy fourth outfielder with everyday upside.

The Frias/Ragsdale pair has to be considered a very strong return for two months of May and Romero. As for the two players headed to Colorado, neither has appeared on any of our prospect lists, so Longenhagen passed along notes. Here’s what he had to say about the 19-year-old Martinez; I’ve added the slash lines to illustrate his points:

Martinez is a switch-hitting second baseman who hit his way to full-season ball after a hot start on the Complex [.356/.476/.598], but he has struggled at Low-A [.209/.321/.269]. He has some low-ball power from the left side of the plate and has barely swung and missed as a righty. For a second base-only defender, his present tools (roughly average contact) are fair. He’s 19, but he’s more filled out than a lot of athletes his age, and we’re not inclined to project a ton. We like switch-hitting infielders like this as Honorable Mention types on the prospect list.

And here’s what Longenhagen wrote about the 26-year-old Manfredi, a ninth-round 2023 pick out of the University of Dayton who has put up a 3.35 ERA and a 2.91 FIP with a 35.2% strikeout rate in 45 2/3 innings split between Biloxi and Triple-A Nashville:

Manfredi has a good fastball. He sits 93-97 with uphill angle. His secondaries aren’t especially nasty, but he has two different breaking balls that play up a little bit against lefties because of his arm slot, and he’ll throw the occasional changeup to keep hitters honest. His fastball is going to play enough for him to be an up/down reliever with the ceiling of a bullpen’s second lefty. But if the Brewers couldn’t coax more out of his secondary stuff, it might not be in the cards for him to climb above the 40-man fringe.

Despite losing out on Skubal to the Dodgers, the Brewers still had to fortify their pitching ahead of the deadline, and with these two trades they’ve done that. They’ve left themselves open to wondering what might have been had they taken a more aggressive approach and landed the two-time Cy Young winner, but given their penchant for handling pitchers, they may get even more out of their new additions than their previous teams did.