The Empire Strikes Back: Dodgers Knot Series Behind Yamamoto Gem

Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

Opportunity knocks for everyone. In some cases, opportunity knocks, rings the doorbell, shouts into your Ring camera, tosses pebbles at your bedroom window, then goes out to its convertible in the driveway and starts singing “Thunder Road.”

Kevin Gausman and Yoshinobu Yamamoto were both terrific, but all duels end with one man standing and the other getting stabbed. Yamamoto twirled his second straight complete game, giving him the first streak of playoff complete games in 24 years. Gausman fell off the tightrope in the seventh inning, as home runs by Will Smith and Max Muncy put the visiting team in front for good. The Dodgers’ 5-1 win wasn’t as splashy as Toronto’s home run party the night before, but it evens the series.

Gausman was all but out of the first inning. He had two strikes on Freddie Freeman, who’d fouled off a splitter at his ankles, then a middle-middle fastball, then another heater up at his hands. Gausman went back to the splitter, the pitch that made him famous, and buried another.

Just not deep enough. Freeman reached down and drove it to right field for a double. Two pitches later, Smith followed a slider out past the outside edge of the plate and looped it to center to plate Freeman.

In the bottom of the inning, George Springer took a fat fastball from Yamamoto and drove it into the left field corner for a double. The very next pitch jammed Nathan Lukes, but his Texas Leaguer dropped between the Dodgers’ defensive shells to put runners on the corners for the meat of the Blue Jays order.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has spent the past month answering when opportunity knocks. In what everyone north of the Rio Grande could see was a massive moment, Guerrero poked and parried one splitter after another, but sputtered when Yamamoto reached into his Mary Poppins bag of pitches and pulled out a 2-2 curveball. Alejandro Kirk and Daulton Varsho went quickly thereafter, and all of a sudden the Blue Jays had squandered their chance to put their boot right back where it had been 20 hours earlier.

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Yamamoto and the Dodgers kept giving Toronto chances. Ernie Clement continued his streak as the luckiest hitter on the planet when Freeman inexplicably overran an infield pop-up:

Runner on first, nobody out, xBA .000. Nothing came of it.

Finally, in the third, the Blue Jays got on the board. Springer wore a Yamamoto fastball off his forearm, advanced to third on Guerrero’s one-out single, and scored on Kirk’s sacrifice fly. But Toronto only scored one this time, and Yamamoto found his footing, setting down the Blue Jays in order in the next four innings.

That one run kept the Jays in it, because after Smith’s first-inning single, Gausman retired the next 17 batters. This was classic Gausman, almost all fastball/splitter. It’s going arm-side, but with God knows what vertical break and at God knows what velocity. Hit it, if you can.

Most of the Dodgers couldn’t. Teoscar Hernández faced Gausman three times and struck out each time up, tied up and cooked like a roulade. Gausman had been pulled in the middle of the sixth inning in five of his six career postseason starts; this time, he not only skated through six, he got the first out of the seventh on his first pitch of the inning, and only his 66th of the night. With John Smoltz in the booth, Gausman was pacing himself for a Jack Morris-like 10-inning complete game.

But while Gausman was gobbling up outs, he was doing so in a manner that prefigured what was to come.

Gausman’s splitter is tremendous. It’s godlike. It’s unsporting. In order to throw it effectively, he needs to throw his four-seamer as well; the fastball is the jab, the splitter is the power punch. This regular season, opponents hit .230 and slugged .380 against Gausman’s fastball, which is actually quite good for a four-seamer. Last season, they hit .281 and slugged .475, which is less so.

If you’re going to get Gausman, you’re going to get the fastball.

For six innings, the Dodgers weren’t getting the fastball at all. And it’s not because it wasn’t hittable. The Dodgers swung at 25 of Gausman’s 49 fastballs, whiffed only three times, and put 14 of them in play. Here’s where those were located:

More than half of Gausman’s batted fastballs registered as “Hard Hit” by Baseball Savant’s definition. But of the first 12 fastballs the Dodgers put in play, only one traveled more than 308 feet. Last night, Varsho hit a rare left-on-left homer off Blake Snell, enabled by one of the worst pitches you’ll ever see Snell throw, a middle-middle pipe shot that any batter with average power ought to hit 400 feet without breathing heavy.

In the fourth, Gausman threw a pitch to Freeman that was, if anything, even easier to hit. First pitch, higher in the zone, only 93.6 mph. Freeman got most of it, driving it Varsho’s way at 108.4 mph, but didn’t get all of it. Two pitches later, Smith took just as meaty a fastball and got under it. Gausman concluded the sixth by tying up Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts for consecutive pop-outs.

As good as Gausman was, he was getting away with it a little. In the seventh, his luck ran out. This was arguably a better pitch than the ones the Dodgers had been knocking into the ceiling all night, veering hard right and into Smith’s hands. But he tucked his arms in, and out the ball went:

Two batters later, Muncy followed with an opposite-field shot on a nearly identical pitch. That did it for Gausman, and the Dodgers tacked on two insurance runs off the ubiquitous Louis Varland.

The Blue Jays never fought back. Because sometimes, when opportunity knocks, Yoshinobu Yamamoto sneaks up behind it, covers its face with a rag soaked in chloroform, and hides its unconscious metaphorical body behind a metaphorical topiary.

Sorry, I’m getting carried away.

By the time the game ended, it was hard to remember that for the first three innings, Yamamoto looked genuinely shaky. He was leaving fastballs in bad places, running deep counts, working through traffic. Had the Blue Jays converted three straight lead runners on base into more than one run, they might once again have gotten to see the face Emmet Sheehan makes when he’s trying to make himself invisible amid a nine-run inning.

But after Guerrero singled to put Springer in position to score the Jays’ only run, Yamamoto didn’t allow a single baserunner for the rest of the night.

Yamamoto ended the evening on a string of 20 consecutive Toronto hitters retired. Coupled with Gausman’s 17-batter streak earlier in the game, this was the first time in major league playoff history that both starters in a postseason game retired 14 or more batters in a row.

You’d think that these two right-handed pitchers, both masters of the splitter, would have similar styles. Not so. While Gausman rode two pitches almost exclusively, Yamamoto sprinkled in all six of his in different proportions each time through the order:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Pitch Usage by Time Through the Order
TTTO Fastball Sinker Cutter Splitter Curveball Slider
1 6 1 1 17 8 0
2 8 1 2 6 3 2
3 6 0 10 4 8 2
4 5 2 0 7 4 2
Total 25 4 13 34 23 6
CSW 7 1 4 11 9 2
Hits 2 1 1 0 0 0
Source: Baseball Savant

Having overexposed his splitter early, he pulled back in the mid-game, leaning on his cutter, then his breaking stuff, before going back to his moneymaker late, like Lynyrd Skynyrd closing with “Freebird.”

As the innings turned over and Yamamoto’s pitch count stayed in a reasonable range, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts never encountered a reason to take his starter out.

When Justin Verlander struck out 13 Yankees over nine innings in Game 2 of the 2017 ALCS, it had been exactly a year since the last postseason complete game. It was eight years to the day before the next — Yamamoto, in Game 2 of the NLCS against Milwaukee. Yamamoto repeated the trick in his very next start, 11 days later. In so doing, he became the first pitcher since Curt Schilling in 2001, and the first Dodger since Orel Hershiser in 1988, to pitch a complete game in consecutive postseason starts.

Like Gausman, Yamamoto wasn’t on some 30-whiff strikeout binge. He got 15 whiffs and eight strikeouts, which is good, but not spectacular. But he didn’t walk anyone. He threw 73 strikes out of 105 pitches. When he gave up hard contact, he kept it on the ground.

The exemplary late-game Yamamoto at-bat, to me, was the one that ended the seventh. Toronto manager John Schneider reached for his last card to play, Bo Bichette, who’d gone 1-for-2 with a walk on one knee in Game 1.

Bichette laced the ball into the hole — 107.7 mph, the third-hardest batted ball of the night for either team — but within the range of Betts. The Dodger shortstop, obviously cognizant of the fact that Bichette could not outrun the tide in his current condition, took plenty of time to line up an accurate throw. Betts, and Yamamoto, did exactly what was required to win. No more, no less.

The air of invincibility is gone after getting boat raced in Game 1, but the Dodgers will no doubt come home satisfied with a split in Toronto. After tasting canvas for the first time since (I’d argue) last year’s NLCS, they did to the Blue Jays what they’d done to the Brewers and Phillies in the past two rounds: Waited out their opponent’s ace and nosed over the line late. When opportunity knocked, the Dodgers answered.





Michael is a writer at FanGraphs. Previously, he was a staff writer at The Ringer and D1Baseball, and his work has appeared at Grantland, Baseball Prospectus, The Atlantic, ESPN.com, and various ill-remembered Phillies blogs. Follow him on Twitter, if you must, @MichaelBaumann.

50 Comments
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descender
8 months ago

No. Not the Empire.

That is taken.

frankenspock
8 months ago
Reply to  descender

The Empire is dead; long live the new Empire.

ichiro262Member since 2024
8 months ago
Reply to  frankenspock

Okay but if we’re sticking with Star Wars, aren’t the Dodgers the First Order?

BenZobrist4MVP
8 months ago

Earlier in his career, Dave Roberts justifiably received criticism for his postseason pitching management, but kudos to him for showing last year that he knew how to aggressively use a great bullpen when he only had two and a half starting pitchers and this year he has been willing to trust his staters to go deep. He was dealt two very different hands as far as his pitching personnel goes, and seems to be adapting well. Obviously, he has been given a lot to work with, but I think if he gets a third ring this year, he will join Ohtani, Betts, Freeman, and Kershaw as guaranteed future Hall of Famer.

MikeSMember since 2020
8 months ago
Reply to  BenZobrist4MVP

Bochy has 4 WS wins and is the only guy with three or more not in the HoF.

Related question: why isn’t Bruce Bochy in the Hall of Fame?

Last edited 8 months ago by MikeS
jabrwckyMember since 2023
8 months ago
Reply to  MikeS

He’s a shoo-in and will be

grandbranyanMember since 2017
8 months ago
Reply to  MikeS

Bochy was only retired from managing for three years.

MikeSMember since 2020
8 months ago
Reply to  grandbranyan

I think he was eligible during that time. IIRC, managers and umpires over 65 only have to be retired 6 months. His DOB is 4/16/55. He retired after 2019 when he was 64 and would have turned 65 before the 2020 season actually started because of COVID. He stayed retired till 2023 when he was 68. So he was over 65 and retired for 6 months during that time and should have been eligible.

frankenspock
8 months ago
Reply to  MikeS

I think it was more that right after his last game with the Giants (like literally a few weeks later), basically, he was talking about it in terms of a one-year sabbatical. Reporters vote for Hall induction and would certainly have been aware that Bochy didn’t consider himself done, and it would have been weird to vote a guy into the Hall and then have him immediately take a new job. And he didn’t retire after the Rangers let him walk, either.

I still wonder if Farhan forced his hand on leaving the Giants in the first place.

Last edited 8 months ago by frankenspock
Chili Davis Eyes
8 months ago
Reply to  MikeS

Iirc, the people at the Hall weren’t too happy when Tony LaRussa came back after his induction, so they probably aren’t inducting anyone who isn’t *for sure* retired.

Sonny LMember since 2017
8 months ago

Was anyone happy when LaRyssa came back?

frankenspock
8 months ago
Reply to  MikeS

Because he’s not eligible yet. Once he stays retired for five years he’ll basically be a first ballot guy.

That might not happen until he dies, though, he can’t seem to give up the game.

ichiro262Member since 2024
8 months ago
Reply to  MikeS

He’s never been on a ballot. He’s technically eligible, but managers don’t get in on the writers ballot. They get in via the era committees, which have a rotating cycle of what era gets voted on.

Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
8 months ago
Reply to  BenZobrist4MVP

Yamamoto has a HoF shot. So does Smith. It’s early days of course

frankenspock
8 months ago
Reply to  Ivan_Grushenko

Smith probably not; he’s 30 and still only at around 23 WAR. Yamamoto is way, way way too early to even guess on things, but if he puts up five WAR a season for the rest of his contract, he could definitely be in the conversation.

PhilMember since 2016
8 months ago
Reply to  frankenspock

I’d imagine if Yamamoto puts up an average of 5fWAR over the rest of his contract – which is 10 years (though he does have a couple of opt outs), he’d be in the HoF. That would be nearly 60 fWAR, and he’s won a ring already, back to back play off complete games, plus his dominant pitching in Japan.

I’d imagine the HoF voters are going to have to change how they view starting pitchers (and unless there is a massive change in how much starters throw), otherwise we’re looking at a situation where Scherzer/Verlander are the last SP inducted. Sale could get in – but he’s at 57.6 fWAR now, and if he gets in, you’d have to think a ~60fWAR Yamamoto would get in too.

Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
8 months ago
Reply to  frankenspock

Ya Smith is less accomplished than I thought.

KeithMember since 2024
8 months ago

I know its been ruled a hit since forever as no one touched it, but it has been, continues to be and always will be ridiculous that a play like the Clement pop up is ruled a “hit”. No infield fly ever should ever be ruled a hit. You have 6! professional MLB players playing the infield who can catch one of these at any time.
And yeah, Yamamoto…wow. That curveball really is a thing of beauty.

Last edited 8 months ago by Keith
Nick KelmanMember since 2024
8 months ago
Reply to  Keith

The weirder thing is that Freeman did unequivocally touch it — it hits the tips of his glove’s fingers as he overruns it. That…usually isn’t ruled a hit. I don’t think it took extraordinary effort for Freeman to put himself within range to make contact with that popup.

frankenspock
8 months ago
Reply to  Nick Kelman

Yeah, it was absolutely an error. Weird call there and I feel like they should review and change it. It wasn’t extraordinary effort, of course, he simply overran the ball and lost it in the lights.

aviariesMember since 2024
8 months ago

Yamamoto might genuinely be the most underpaid player in baseball, it’s just absurd what he’s doing.

KeithMember since 2024
8 months ago
Reply to  aviaries

Skenes is most underpaid player in MLB. He’s the best pitcher in the NL and got paid like $750K last year. $750K is a terrific salary if you are a lawyer, decent stock broker or surgeon.
For a guy who is producing over 7 BWAR a year, he is waaaay underpaid.

Last edited 8 months ago by Keith
frankenspock
8 months ago
Reply to  aviaries

He’s not the most underpaid player right now, but at the end of his contract if he’s producing anywhere close to what he is now he’ll almost seem free.

ichiro262Member since 2024
8 months ago
Reply to  frankenspock

About half the teams in major league baseball don’t have a single player they pay as much as Yamamoto is making. Also we’ll all be in huge trouble if inflation makes $27M the new $1M in 10 years. That’ll still be one of the more expensive players on any team by then. And also it’s not like he’s Judge or Ohtani. If he keeps being excellent it’ll be worth it, but nowhere near “most underpaid” or “almost free” territory.

justahikerMember since 2021
8 months ago

So I had to check. Including and between Alejandro Kirk’s fly out in the third inning and Freddie Freeman’s fly out in the 7th, 21 straight batters were retired. 21 outs in 53 pitches, or about two and a half pitches per batter. That game was really moving along at one point

frankenspock
8 months ago
Reply to  justahiker

Crazy how many innings in the middle there were six pitches, nine pitches, etc. You’d look up and the commercial break was already on.

I just don’t get people who don’t enjoy this type of baseball. Weirdly riveting stuff for me.

raregokusMember since 2022
8 months ago
Reply to  frankenspock

I don’t enjoy the type of baseball where there’s more commercials than baseball. More than one or two 6 pitch half-innings is too much for it to be good baseball.

raregokusMember since 2022
8 months ago
Reply to  raregokus

I guess some folks on FanGraphs just prefer their baseball to have more advertisements and less baseball? Weird downvoting.

Roger McDowell Hot Foot
8 months ago
Reply to  raregokus

I hate advertising but love pitchers’ duels so I’m not sure how to vote.

raregokusMember since 2022
8 months ago

Pitchers’ duels are possible without innings ending in 2 and a half minutes, which seems to be what the people are asking for.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
8 months ago

I have enjoyed watching Roberts manage with his brain instead of a computer program more than the actual outcome of the games. I have been beating the drum for this type of starting pitcher usage ever since I first found Fangraphs and it does this long time baseball fan a lot of good to see someone finally recognize that a top of the rotation starter, when he is on his game, can throw a complete game. To see Yamamoto do a great Bob Gibson imitation and actually throw CG’s in consecutive starts is fantastic and something I thought I would never see again. Whether this leads to more innings being pitched by starters next season is yet to be seen but maybe other teams will allow their managers to stretch out their top starters to 200 or more innings. If that happens then teams can lop off the worthless mop up stiffs and add a position player or two. Maybe that would mean that we wouldn’t have to see Austin Hedges actually be sent up to the plate as a “pinch-hitter”.

FrodoBeck
8 months ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

It doesn’t really ever make sense to beat the drum for this type of starting pitcher usage unless your rotation is full of guys like Snell, Ohtani, Yoshi, etc.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
8 months ago
Reply to  FrodoBeck

All I have ever said is that top of the rotation starters should throw more innings and go deeper into games than they have been asked to do in recent years. Some teams might not have anyone who is capable of doing so, the Rockies were going to lose around 119 games regardless of what they tried, but those that do are weakening their team by limiting the top guys to 160 innings, plus or minus, then being forced to send the likes of Jorge Alcala, Jordan Hicks and their likes to the hill, and, amazingly, often in high leverage situations. Just one inning more, per start, from the top three starters adds 90+ innings thrown by good pitchers rather than the virtually useless 12th and 13th guys with their 6+ ERA’s. Today’s game, with no long extra inning games, does not need some flotsam filling up the bullpen when a useful third catcher, enabling teams to utilize the entire roster is more valuable.

FrodoBeck
8 months ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

I’m not gonna sit here and detail all the very obvious reasons that explain why things are done the way they’re done today, because it’s been written to death here and elsewhere plenty of times. Injury risk and third time through the order penalty basically tell the whole story anyway.

I don’t disagree that there are moments where a starting pitcher could be left in (for example, I’d have left Snell in for the 9th against the brewers in the NLCS), but those instances are few and far between. Further, it wouldn’t take long at all to go find instances where managers (this season!) still left starters in an inning too long and they got rocked and were unable to finish the inning.

bosoxforlifeMember since 2016
8 months ago
Reply to  FrodoBeck

There were just as many times when an effective starter was automatically pulled regardless of pitch count or score and the pen exploded immediately. I have a big problem with lumping all starters into one bundle and saying that they all have an equal third time through the order penalty. Top of the rotation men can lose something but their “C” stuff is still better than most of the middle relievers that come in. I have no problem turning a game over to Garrett Whitlock in the 8th but I have a huge problem when the reliever who carries a 5+ ERA comes in start the 7th after the starter has thrown 6 scoreless on less than 90 pitches, which is happening constantly.

FrodoBeck
8 months ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

If you feel confident in your stance, my recommendation to you would be the following: a) compile the data you’re talking about, b) present it in a cohesive and relatively concise way (try Community posting it here), and c) enjoy being hired by a big league team because you’ve located an inefficiency that nobody working for any of the 30 clubs has yet identified.

MTfor42Member since 2025
8 months ago
Reply to  bosoxforlife

200 inning combined regular season and playoffs maybe. I think management encouraged Roberts to help the arms conserve some bullets for the playoffs. It wasn’t an accident that Snell, Yamamoto, Glasnow, and Ohtani were all ready to rip come October. Injuries aside, they planned for having fresh Aces right now.

cashgod27Member since 2024
8 months ago

If Yamamoto continues at this sort of pace (which, odds are, he won’t, at least for his whole career) I think we’d genuinely need to have some Greatest Pitcher of All Time conversations considering how he made NPB, the second-best pro baseball league in the world, look like a joke in his early 20s and now is doing this in MLB. A true ace in every sense of the word.

frankenspock
8 months ago
Reply to  cashgod27

I love me some Yama but he hasn’t had a season yet where it’s even clear he’s one of the best three pitchers in his league, so maybe let’s dial this back a little.

Bumgarner, for instance, for all of his godlike postseason powers, will never sniff the Hall of Fame nor will anyone confuse him with the GOAT.

Oh, Beepy.Member since 2024
8 months ago
Reply to  frankenspock

This.

Addendum, this is no way contradicts the fact that playoff MadBum did seem legitimately unhittable, it’s just that the “greatest of all time” mantle is based on so much more than the postseason.

carterMember since 2020
8 months ago
Reply to  frankenspock

I don’t think Bumgarner makes it, but I think he gets a lot more votes than the fangraphs community thinks he will

baycommuterMember since 2016
8 months ago

I was a little confused why Roberts set up his playoff rotation with Snell ahead of Yamamoto, but it looks smart right now when you look at a game 6 being in Toronto.

PhilMember since 2016
8 months ago
Reply to  baycommuter

Because Snell can go on four days of rest, so will start game 5. The Dodgers are keeping Yamamoto to a Japanese style pitching schedule, so game 6 will be with his usual amount of rest.

Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
8 months ago
Reply to  Phil

Same with Ohtani and Glasnow. Yamamoto needs 5 days rest but can throw complete games and go hundreds of pitches

ichiro262Member since 2024
8 months ago
Reply to  Phil

Also, Snell has been just as good as Yamamoto over the past two years. It’d be totally reasonable to view Snell as your #1 and Yamamoto as your #2.

raregokusMember since 2022
8 months ago

Welp, I guess we’ll always have game 1. This series reverted to expectations extremely quickly.

Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
8 months ago
Reply to  raregokus

The Game 1 approach could work on Glasnow.

aviariesMember since 2024
8 months ago
Reply to  Ivan_Grushenko

Glasnow has managed to get through the season and two postseason starts while looking like an ace despite getting almost no chase at all, he doesn’t necessarily rely on chase and whiffs like Snell does.

Anon21Member since 2018
8 months ago
Reply to  aviaries

He didn’t pitch like an ace in the regular season. And he’s still walking too many in the playoffs, although he hasn’t paid for it yet.

puddleMember since 2017
8 months ago
Reply to  aviaries

He looks like an ace at times, but he wastes too many pitches that don’t even sniff the zone, and then puts himself in unenviable counts. His control has been juuuuust good enough to get away with it these playoffs, but I don’t think it will fly against this Blue Jays lineup. He’ll need to be sharper than he’s been.