The First Weekend of College Ball by (Maybe) Predictive Stats

Over the last couple years, the author has published a periodic statistical report designed to serve as a mostly responsible shorthand for people who, like the author, possess more enthusiasm for collegiate baseball than expert knowledge of it. Those reports integrated concepts central to much of the analysis found at FanGraphs — regarding sample size and regression, for example — to provide something not unlike a “true talent” leaderboard for hitters and pitchers in select conferences.

What follows represents the first such report for the 2017 college campaign, which began last Friday.

As in the original edition of this same thing, what I’ve done here is to utilize principles introduced by Chris Mitchell on forecasting future major-league performance with minor-league stats.

To review those principles very briefly: for hitters in the low minors (i.e. a level similar to the better collegiate leagues), the metrics most predictive of major-league success (besides age) are strikeout rate (K%), isolated power (ISO), and batting average on balls in play (BABIP). For pitchers, the most important metrics are strikeout rate (K%) and, less important but also second-most relevant, walk rate (BB%). What I’ve done here is to combine regressed versions of those various metrics into a pair index stats: MPS+* for hitters (where 100 is league average and above 100 is better than league average) and MPS-* (where 100 is league average and below 100 is better than league average.

*MPS denotes (maybe) predictive stats.

Using that methodology (about which one can read more thoroughly in an earlier post), I’ve identified six types of player in three different conferences each: the top overall batter, top draft-eligible batter, top defensive-type batter*, top overall pitcher, top draft-eligible pitcher, and top starting pitcher. The three conferences I’ve chosen here represent those most typically responsible for producing good major-league players. Later editions of this same report will contain more conferences.

*Meaning, the top batter who also plays a position towards the more challenging end of the defensive spectrum.

There are nearly one-thousand caveats to supply concerning the data here. Numbers don’t account at all for quality of opponent or park. Note that, as some conferences have less robust data than others, that I’ve had to provide (sensible) plate-appearance and batters-faced estimates in some cases. xK%, xISO, and xBABIP denote expected strikeout rate, isolated power, and batting average on balls in play, respectively. Stats are current through the weekend’s games.

ACC
Top Batter
Seth Beer, 1B, Clemson (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Sam Fragale, 1B, Virginia Tech (RS-Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Trevor Craport, 3B, Georgia Tech (Jr)

Top Pitcher
J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, No. Carolina (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, No. Carolina (Jr)

Top Starter
J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, No. Carolina (Jr)

Leaderboards

Top Ten Batters of the ACC
Name School Yr Pos PA K% ISO BABIP xK% xISO xBABIP MPS+
Seth Beer Clemson So 1B 14 21.4% 1.000 .500 18.3% .205 .308 124
Sam Fragale Virginia Tech RS-Jr 1B 15 26.7% .923 .667 19.4% .203 .310 123
Brendan McKay Louisville Jr 1B 14 7.1% .750 .400 15.6% .186 .306 120
Brett Kinneman NC State So COF 14 7.1% .583 .500 15.6% .174 .308 116
Trevor Craport Georgia Tech Jr 3B 15 6.7% .538 .364 15.4% .173 .306 115
Drew Ellis Louisville Jr 3B/1B 12 0.0% .444 .250 14.7% .161 .305 111
Zack Kone Duke So SS 16 6.3% .400 .231 15.2% .163 .304 111
Kyle Fiala Notre Dame Sr SS 19 5.3% .333 .235 14.6% .160 .304 111
Kel Johnson Georgia Tech Jr 1B 13 15.4% .545 .250 17.2% .169 .304 111
Pavin Smith Virginia Jr 1B 14 7.1% .429 .273 15.6% .163 .305 111

 

Top Ten Pitchers of the ACC
Name School Yr Pos IP TBF K% BB% xK% xBB% MPS-
J.B. Bukauskas No. Carolina Jr RHP 6.0 23 43.5% 4.3% 27.3% 9.0% 85
Brendan McKay Louisville Jr LHP 6.0 21 42.9% 0.0% 26.8% 8.5% 85
Jacob Hennessy Clemson Fr LHP 2.2 10 60.0% 0.0% 26.8% 9.1% 86
Jacob Stevens Boston Coll. So RHP 6.0 23 39.1% 4.3% 26.2% 9.0% 87
Mathieu Gauthier NC State Fr RHP 2.2 11 54.5% 9.1% 26.4% 9.6% 88
Bennett Sousa Virginia Jr LHP 1.1 4 100.0% 0.0% 26.2% 9.4% 88
Jesse Lepore Miami Jr RHP 6.0 18 38.9% 0.0% 25.5% 8.7% 89
Riley Thompson Louisville So RHP 1.1 5 80.0% 0.0% 25.9% 9.3% 89
Andrew McDonald Virginia Tech RS-Jr RHP 7.2 29 31.0% 0.0% 24.6% 8.2% 89
Tyler Holton Florida St. So LHP 6.0 22 36.4% 4.5% 25.4% 9.0% 90

Notes
Louisville’s Brendan McKay is essentially the Shohei Otani of college baseball. Ranked fourth among Baseball America’s top-100 college draft prospects, McKay has begun the 2017 season about as strongly as one could reasonably expect, producing one of the top batting and pitching lines among all ACC players. Reports placed him around 93 mph as a pitcher.

***
Pac-12
Top Batter
Frankie Rios, SS, USC (RS-Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Frankie Rios, SS, USC (RS-Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Frankie Rios, SS, USC (RS-Jr)

Top Pitcher
Luke Heimlich, LHP, Oregon St. (Jr)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Luke Heimlich, LHP, Oregon St. (Jr)

Top Starter
Luke Heimlich, LHP, Oregon St. (Jr)

Leaderboards

Top Ten Batters of the Pac-12
Name School Yr Pos PA K% ISO BABIP xK% xISO xBABIP MPS+
Frankie Rios USC RS-Jr SS 16 0.0% .364 .333 12.5% .150 .338 112
Mitchell Morimoto Arizona Jr COF 14 0.0% .364 .500 12.8% .147 .340 112
Lars Nootbaar USC So OF 14 7.1% .375 .500 14.2% .148 .340 110
Nick Quintana Arizona Fr 3B 15 13.3% .364 .778 15.3% .149 .344 110
David Edson USC RS-Sr COF 16 6.3% .333 .400 13.8% .147 .339 110
JJ Matijevic Arizona Jr 1B/2B 15 6.7% .333 .385 14.0% .146 .339 109
Nick Kahle Wash. Fr C 4 0.0% 1.000 .333 14.9% .150 .338 109
Daniel Amaral UCLA So CF 9 0.0% .429 .333 13.8% .145 .338 108
Justin Harrer Wash. St. So COF 12 8.3% .400 .222 14.6% .147 .337 108
Nick Madrigal Oregon St. So SS/2B 13 0.0% .273 .273 13.0% .140 .337 107

 

Top Ten Pitchers of the Pac-12
Name School Yr Pos IP TBF K% BB% xK% xBB% MPS-
Luke Heimlich Oregon St. Jr LHP 5.2 23 47.8% 8.7% 31.5% 10.2% 86
Kris Bubic Stanford So LHP 6.0 21 47.6% 9.5% 31.1% 10.3% 87
Jordan Jones Wash. Fr RHP 6.2 25 40.0% 0.0% 29.7% 9.0% 87
Noah Bremer Wash. Jr RHP 6.0 24 41.7% 12.5% 30.1% 10.6% 90
Steve Romo Arizona Jr RHP 2.0 7 57.1% 0.0% 28.9% 10.0% 92
Parker McFadden Wash. St. So RHP 2.1 7 57.1% 0.0% 28.9% 10.0% 92
Griffin Canning UCLA Jr RHP 6.0 22 36.4% 9.1% 28.5% 10.2% 93
Erik Martinez California Jr RHP 1.0 5 60.0% 0.0% 28.3% 10.1% 93
Cameron Ming Arizona Jr LHP 1.1 5 60.0% 0.0% 28.3% 10.1% 93
Zayne Patino California Jr RHP 1.2 5 60.0% 0.0% 28.3% 10.1% 93

Notes
Last year, USC’s Jeremy Martinez (selected by St. Louis in the fourth round of the 2016 draft) led the Pac-12 with 3.3 extra bases per strikeout*. Only about 20 players finished with a ratio of at least 1.0 extra bases per strikeout. The conference average was roughly 0.5. After the first weekend of the season, USC’s Frankie Rios has now recorded four extra bases (on two doubles and a triple) and zero strikeouts — this while playing the most demanding position (with the exception of catcher) on the field.

*Extra bases being total bases minus hits, or essentially isolated slugging.

***
SEC
Top Batter
Jorge Gutierrez, C/2B, Texas A&M (Fr)

Top Draft-Eligible Batter
Greg Deichmann, COF, LSU (Jr)

Top Defensive-Type Batter
Jorge Gutierrez, C/2B, Texas A&M (Fr)

Top Pitcher
Dallas Woolfolk, RHP, Ole Miss (So)

Top Draft-Eligible Pitcher
Collin Snider, RHP, Vanderbilt (Jr)

Top Starter
Jackson Kowar, RHP, Florida (So)

Leaderboards

Top Ten Batters of the SEC
Name School Yr Pos PA K% ISO BABIP xK% xISO xBABIP MPS+
Jorge Gutierrez Texas A&M Fr C/2B 8 0.0% 1.600 .667 13.2% .208 .362 127
Chandler Taylor Alabama So COF 14 35.7% .917 .250 18.9% .202 .359 116
Greg Deichmann LSU Jr COF 11 9.1% .778 .333 14.0% .182 .360 115
Adam Sasser Georgia So 1B 9 11.1% .778 .667 14.5% .176 .363 113
Connor Brumfield Missouri So OF 19 0.0% .308 .429 11.4% .161 .361 112
Julian Infante Vanderbilt So 1B 13 0.0% .400 .444 12.3% .162 .361 111
Josh Smith LSU Fr 3B 10 0.0% .429 .286 12.8% .160 .360 109
Grant Koch Arkansas So C 13 0.0% .333 .273 12.3% .158 .359 108
Hunter Alexander Alabama Jr 1B 14 0.0% .273 .500 12.1% .154 .362 108
Kramer Robertson LSU Sr SS 11 0.0% .333 .556 12.6% .156 .362 108

 

Top Ten Pitchers of the SEC
Name School Yr Pos IP TBF K% BB% xK% xBB% MPS-
Dallas Woolfolk Ole Miss So RHP 3.0 9 77.8% 0.0% 31.0% 7.6% 83
Jackson Kowar Florida So RHP 5.2 22 45.5% 4.5% 29.9% 7.6% 86
Riley Self Miss. St. Fr RHP 6.0 20 45.0% 5.0% 29.4% 7.7% 88
Collin Snider Vanderbilt Jr RHP 4.0 15 46.7% 0.0% 28.8% 7.4% 88
Konnor Pilkington Miss. St. So LHP 3.1 15 46.7% 6.7% 28.8% 7.9% 90
Casey Mize Auburn So RHP 5.0 17 41.2% 0.0% 28.2% 7.3% 90
TJ Sikkema Missouri Fr LHP 5.1 20 40.0% 5.0% 28.3% 7.7% 91
Maddux Conger Vanderbilt So RHP 3.0 10 50.0% 0.0% 28.1% 7.6% 91
Brigham Hill Texas A&M Jr RHP 6.0 27 37.0% 7.4% 28.4% 8.0% 91
Cannon Chadwick Arkansas Sr RHP 2.0 7 57.1% 0.0% 27.9% 7.7% 92

Notes
Texas A&M’s Jorge Gutierrez is interesting. A native of Venezuela, where his father played professionally, he became a citizen of the United States in September. As a showcase prospect, he was designated as both a catcher and shortstop. Already this season, he’s played both catcher and second base for the Aggies. Just a freshman, his first weekend of college baseball was a great success: in eight plate appearances he homered twice and tripled — and also added a stolen base on one attempt.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Jimmember
7 years ago

Ah, so I see Heimlich has maneuvered himself to the top of the Pac-12 board. I guess the Beavers got a jolt out of that.