The Fringe Five: Baseball’s Most Compelling Fringe Prospects

The Fringe Five is a weekly regular-season exercise, introduced a few years ago by the present author, wherein that same author utilizes regressed stats, scouting reports, and also his own fallible intuition to identify and/or continue monitoring the most compelling fringe prospects in all of baseball.

Central to the exercise, of course, is a definition of the word fringe, a term which possesses different connotations for different sorts of readers. For the purposes of the column this year, a fringe prospect (and therefore one eligible for inclusion in the Five) is any rookie-eligible player at High-A or above who (a) received a future value grade of 45 or less from Dan Farnsworth during the course of his organizational lists and who (b) was omitted from the preseason prospect lists produced by Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels, and also who (c) is currently absent from a major-league roster. Players appearing on an updated prospect list or, otherwise, selected in the first round of the current season’s amateur draft will also be excluded from eligibility.

In the final analysis, the basic idea is this: to recognize those prospects who are perhaps receiving less notoriety than their talents or performance might otherwise warrant.

Greg Allen, OF, Cleveland (Profile)
This represents Allen’s sixth appearance among the Five proper this year — the top mark among prospects who don’t also possess the exact same DNA, arranged in precisely the same manner, as Sherman Johnson. Allen has been both (a) incredible overall and (b) even more incredible recently. Regard, by way of illustration, the following table, which contains certain of Allen’s most relevant numbers relative to the 200 other qualified position players across all of High-A.

Naturally, this isn’t a perfect method: the run enivornments of the Carolina League (to which Allen belongs) differ from those of the California and Florida State Leagues, the former possessing greater offensive production; the latter, less. Still, one finds that the Cleveland outfielder possesses elite numbers by several different measures.

The effect is heightened when one compares Allen’s numbers since May 27th (the date of his first appearance among the Five) against all the same qualified batters — a sample of 152 plate appearances.

If one interested in identifying a plus hit tool merely by numbers alone, Allen is an ideal case study. He’s recorded one of the top three walk rates at High-A while also recording one of the top three (which is to say, lowest) strikeout rates — while also converting batted balls into hits at a rate higher than almost everyone else.

Hunter Dozier, 3B, Kansas City (Profile)
Dozier represents a rare type of fringe prospect — which is to say, not the sort who’s toiled in obscurity, but rather the sort who’s descended into it. The 24-year-old third baseman appeared at the tail end of some top-100 prospect lists before both the 2014 and -15 seasons. Heading into 2016, he was ranked 30th by Baseball America — in the entire Royals organization. The cause: a miserable 2015 campaign during which his strikeout rate approached 30% — caused most immediately, it seems, by an attempt to alter his swing to create more loft.

Dan Farnsworth reported this winter that Dozier was making efforts to address his approach. Those efforts appear to be working. Last night (Thursday), Dozier recorded a strikeout in a game for the first time since June 28th. In the 34 plate appearances between, he walked four times while also hitting two home runs, ultimately producing a line of .600/.647/.933 — which collection of numbers is so good as to basically have no meaning.

Here’s footage of Dozier from this past weekend, simultaneously homering and not striking out:

C.J. Hinojosa, SS, San Francisco (Profile)
When Hinojosa appeared among the Five at the end of May, the author — whose name is a byword for belaboring the point — belabored a point about how even after accounting for the California League’s robust offensive environment, Hinojosa’s numbers remained impressive. He was walking and preventing strikeouts and exhibiting above-average power even relative to his California League competition.

Following the shortstop’s promotion to Double-A Richmond, the point requires much less belaboring: the Eastern League, of which Richmond is a part, typically produces what one might generally regard as a more conventional — even pitcher-friendly — slash line. Hinojosa, on the other hand, has actually recorded better numbers following his arrival there at the very end of June. In 29 plate appearances, he’s recorded a positive walk- and strikeout-rate differential (10.3% K, 6.9% BB) while also producing an isolated-power figure roughly 20 points higher than his Cal League mark. These are not developments one typically expects from a prospect who’s moved to a higher level and a tougher environment. That he also appears capable of providing defensive value is also important.

Yohander Mendez, LHP, Texas (Profile)
On July 4th of 2015, the left-handed Mendez appeared in relief for Low-A Hickory, recording 3.2 innings against Marlins affiliate Greensboro (box). This past Tuesday, on July 5th — which is to say, almost precisely a year after that relief appearance — the 21-year-old Venezuelan made his Triple-A debut, striking out seven of 21 batters against other Marlins affiliate New Orleans (box). The relevance of these two appearances? They illustrate how rapidly Mendez has ascended through affiliated ball over the past year. Originally signed as part of the same 2011 international class that produced Nomar Mazara, Mendez has recorded almost uniformly strong fielding-independent numbers as a professional. What he hasn’t done is pitch all the time. To wit: the 67.2 innings he’s posted this season already represent a career high. Otherwise, the prognosis is quite encouraging: his fastball sits 90-94, he features a true out pitch in his changeup, and his frame still possesses physical projection.

Here’s footage of Mendez recording the seventh strikeout of his Triple-A debut, and also you’re sitting down the first-base line a little bit and kinda high up:

Max Schrock, 2B, Washington (Profile)
This marks Schrock’s second appearance among the Five — which also represents the number of occasions upon which he’s been eligible to appear here. (Partly for legitimate reasons and partly due to the author’s losing battle with sloth, only players at High-A or above are considered for inclusion.) He’s like to appear within a number of subsequent installments, as well. The most substantive criticism of Shrock’s performance over the past week, an interval of 32 plate appearances, is that he recorded an uncharacteristically high strikeout rate of 15.6%. Uncharacteristically high for Schrock, that is, not the league. The average mark for Carolina League batters as a whole is almost 20% exactly. Otherwise, the 21-year-old second baseman was brilliant, producing nearly a .200 ISO, nearly a .500 BABIP, and also converting all three of his stolen-base attempts. His definite, certain claim to an MVP award appears unassailable at this point.

The Next Five
These are players on whom the author might potentially become fixated.

Jharel Cotton, RHP, Los Angeles NL (Triple-A Pacific Coast League)
Yeudy Garcia, RHP, Pittsburgh (High-A Florida State League)
Sherman Johnson, 2B, Los Angeles AL (Triple-A Pacific Coast League)
Matthew Strahm, LHP, Kansas City (Double-A Texas League)
Luis Urias, 2B/3B, San Diego (High-A California League)

Fringe Five Scoreboard
Here are the top-10 the players to have appeared among either the Fringe Five (FF) or Next Five (NF) so far this season (which is to say, today). For mostly arbitrary reasons, players are assessed three points for each week they’ve appeared among the Fringe Five; a single point, for each week among the Next Five.